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Global Environment and Health WHO/PAHO Collaborating Centers Regional Meeting, RTP, Oct. 2011 Jonathan Patz, Professor Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment & Director, Global Health Institute University of Wisconsin - Madison OUTLINE • Climate Change Risks • Adaptation and Mitigation: Co-benefits and unintended consequences • Land use & global ecological change “Health Map” Sustainabilit y Commission Barton & Grant, 2006 Bara Shigri Glacier, Himachal Pradesh Losing 30 meters per year Courtesy: Diana Liverman Changes in sea ice extent Sept 1980 Siberia The Arctic sea ice cover Greenland Alaska September 1980: 7.8 million square kilometers Courtesy: Don Perovich Changes in sea ice extent Sept 2007 Siberia Greenland Alaska September 2007: 4.2 million square kilometers Courtesy: Don Perovich Changes in sea ice extent Reduction from 1980 to 2007 Courtesy: Don Perovich Huge decrease in ice extent IPCC 2001scenarios to 2100 ---------------- HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Urban Heat Island Effect Air Pollution & Aeroallergens CLIMATE CHANGE Temperature Rise Sea level Rise 2 Hydrologic Extremes Vector-borne Diseases 1 Water-borne Diseases 1 2 3°C by yr. 2100 40 cm “ “ IPCC estimates Water resources & food supply Heat Stress Cardiorespiratory failure Respiratory diseases, e.g., COPD & Asthma Malaria Dengue Encephalitis Hantavirus Rift Valley Fever Cholera Cyclospora Cryptosporidiosis Campylobacter Leptospirosis Malnutrition Diarrhea Toxic Red Tides Mental Health & Patz, 1998 Environmental Refugees Forced Migration Overcrowding Infectious diseases Human Conflicts Heatwave morbidity -Milwaukee Source: Li, et al. 2011 50° C Future summers warmer than warmest on record Today’s one billion at risk for hunger could double by mid-century. Battisi and Naylor, Science 2009 USA: Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) Courtesy: Kellogg Schwab 1.2 trillion gal of sewage & stormwater a year discharged during combined sewer overflows – would keep Niagara Falls roaring for 18 days Center for Water & Health, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health In Future, when it rains…it will pour. Globally Averaged U.S. CCSP, 2008 Climate change Adaptation and Mitigation Co-benefits from mitigating GHGs: opportunity for improving health We can reduce: 800,000 deaths/year from air pollution 1.9 million deaths from physical inactivity WHO, 2007 Olympics: Natural experiments • Atlanta 1996: Traffic was reduced by 23% Ozone air pollution fell by 28% Childhood Asthma dropped 42% • Beijing 2008: China spent $17 Billion for a “Green Olympics” Nitrogen dioxide fell by 38%, Particulate matter by 20% Friedman et al. 2001; UNEP 2009 From transportation…to human health Technology & Activity Scenarios What are the health impacts of predicted pollution levels? What are the associated emissions? (CO2, NO2, SO2, VOCs, PM, etc.). How do these emissions impact air pollution? Ozone Grabow, et al (in press) 2011 WHAT IF, 20% fewer car trips, Midwest USA? 500 lives saved per year 100,000s of illnesses avoided And if 50% of these short trips were by bicycle, the fitness benefit reaches 1,100 lives saved/yr. Grabow et al. 2011 Mitigating climate change could: Co-benefits: fighting global 1)Enhance personal warming is a great health fitness; opportunity 2) reduce air pollution; 3) reduce greenhouse gases Adaptation to climate change may have unintended consequences; Need for full Health Impact Assessment approach Millennium Ecosystem Assessment • “Ecosystem Services” • “Natural capital” FREE services from nature Identified Drivers of Disease Emergence From the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Patz & Confalonieri, 2005 Deforestation & malaria risk, Peruvian Amazon Vittor et al. 2006 Health and the Rio Conventions Biological Diversity •Nutritional changes •Disease Regulation • Medicinal products • Water purification •Climate induced Biodiversity loss •Land degradation, deforestation • • Desertification hastened by landcover change •Deforestation effects on climate Human health Climate Change •Extreme weather events •Heat waves &air pollution •Malnutrition •Water- & Food-borne disease • Vector-borne diseases •Water scarcity and safety •Agro-ecosystem productivity •Food scarcity •Droughts Desertification •Precipitation changes leading to drought Source: Corvalan, WHO, 2006 Conclusion • Global climate and ecological change pose significant risks to health • Risks, Adaptation and Mitigation Policies should be studied together • “Health in all Policies” approach required