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Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Induced Migration In Coastal and Marine Zones of the Middle East, North Africa and Mediterranean by Magdalena A K Muir Advisory Board Member, Climate, Coastal and Marine Union & Research Associate, Arctic Institute of North America for First Workshop on Climate Induced Migration and Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Organized by World Bank and French Development Agency Marseille, France, June 15-16, 2010 Coastal and Marine Union (EUCC) The Coastal & Marine Union (EUCC) has 2700 members and organisations in 40 countries. Largest European network of coastal and marine practitioners /experts with 15 national branches. International office in Leiden, Netherlands with regional offices for the Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas. The EUCC engaged in climate change issues at international and European level since 2004, including developing capacity and adaptive and mitigative responses in MENA countries. Introduction Mediterranean coastal zones have high populations and concentrated uses and infrastructure. Coastal zones are vital for their high biological productivity, and the link they between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This presentation focuses on coastal and marine zones, impacts of climate change for urban settlements and sectors such as agriculture, built environment, energy, fisheries and tourism. Then a review of possible climate induced immigration within and from the MENA countries. Climate change impacts and adaptive and mitigative responses for climate migration are examined, with specific focus on energy, water, and the built environment. The presentation concludes with recommendations. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions share common and different characteristics, as common climate impacts, and being the sources and recipients of migrants and migration. MENA Region : Rapidly developing tourism and industrial activities along coasts, combined with rapid population growth, which impacting coastal ecosystems. IPCC (2007) WBGU (2008) Overview of Climate Impacts Water shortages and poor harvests in the droughts of the 1990s exposed the acute vulnerability of the MENA region. Future climate change could critically undermine efforts for sustainable development. Climate change may add to existing problems of desertification, water scarcity and food production, and introduce new threats to human health, ecosystems &national economies. Adaptation possible but long-term sustainability of the MENA region requires global emissions reductions. MEDSOC (2009) Impacts of Climate Change in the MENA Region Significant uncertainties for predictions of regional climate changes, but likely that the region will warm significantly. Most projections point to more precipitation in winter and less in summer for the region. A common feature of many projections is declining annual precipitation south of 45° N, with increases to the north. Even areas receiving more precipitation may get drier, due to increased evaporation and changes in the seasonal distribution of rainfall and its intensity. Impacts of Climate Change in MENA Region First impacts of climate change felt in the water resource system. In Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Syria, Malta and the Lebanon, water availability already falls below, or approaches conditions of, water scarcity. Water could become salty due to salt water infiltration for rivers and coastal aquifers as sea level rises. Water pollution worsens as pollutants become more concentrated with reduced rivers, and sanitary impacts of increased untreated water and sewage. Increased heat and vertical stratification of coasts and lakes increase effects of eutrophication. Desertification, Agriculture, Fisheries and Migration Climate Change in Northern Africa and Agriculture African countries are expected to lose a great deal of their agricultural capacity. Analyzing a series of climate-related agricultural models, by 2080, production losses in countries within the equatorial belt could rise to 60 per cent. Losses may reach 56 per cent in Sudan, 52 per cent in Senegal,39 per cent in Morocco, 36 per cent in Algeria and Mali, 31 per cent in Ethiopia, 19 per cent in Nigeria and 47 per cent in the southern African region. Cline, W. 2007 Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country,Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics. Washington, DC. Impacts of Climate Change Coastal and Marine Zones Climate change will cause additional pressures on coastal zones, urban settlements and sectors throughout the MENA region Many valuable ecosystems could be lost as species cant shift with their climate boundaries or find their migration paths blocked by human activities. Wetland sites will face the dual threats of drying out and sea level rise. Given additional urban coastal development, more energy required for cooling, and more concentrated adverse impacts on water quality and quantity. Example: Declining precipitation in Morocco increases rural poverty and crop failure and mobilizes subsistence farmers, herders and labourers. Development and pollution at coasts contaminates coastal fisheries, affecting subsistence fishers. Example of sustainable agriculture, biodiversity and local participation in the Abipa C3F project, Cape Three Forks in northeastern Morocco. Example: Beirut and increasing urban water shortages and quality requiring water tanks and mobile water trucks Example: Athens: Scale of urban development, multiple climate challenges, and conceptual framework for integrated approach to climate change (CIRCE Urban Case Studies) Example: Alexandra and the west Nile Delta, Egypt and vulnerability to sea level rise in low areas near Alexandra (CIRCE Urban and Coastal Case Studies) Gulf of Gabes in Tunesia: Vulnerability of gulf, fishing and tourism to sea level warming, rising and erosion Example: Gulf of Oran, Syria: Economically beneficial hydrocarbon sector pollutes coasts, and adversely affects under-developed fisheries sector. Climate Migrants and MENA Region : Introduction Climate migrations and migrants will occur from and within MENA countries and externally, particularly subsistence farmers and fishers, due to reduced or failed ecosystems and services. Influx of climate migrants will put additional pressure on already stressed ecosystems, and growing coastal settlements and sectors in MENA countries. Deterioration in MENA coastal zones could cause migration into Europe or Gulf States. Need to explore range of adaptive and mitigative responses to climate migration, and how to reduce sectoral impacts in coasts. Who and What are Climate Migrants? “Persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their homes or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad” (From speech by IOM Director General, Brunson McKinley describing environmental migrants at the Institute for Public Policy Research Conference on Climate Change and Forced Migration) Migration may be internal or international; temporary, seasonal or permanent. Those most affected by climate change may not migrate. Migration may occur as international immigration, internal displacement or successive movements of peoples to, in, from and through MENA countries. Recent History of Migration in MENA Region From the post-World War II, the migration of peoples has been massive and in flux: - From discouragement of emigration from Maghreb and other countries, - Followed by Europe’s 1960s labour immigration from Turkey and the Maghreb, - Through oil-financed economic expansion of GCC countries and guest workers, - Followed by two Gulf crises and mass expulsions of Arab guest workers, and - Now with surplus labour force and high unemployment throughout the MENA region. M. Baldwin-Edwards, Migration in the Middle East and Mediterranean, GCIM Regional Study on the Middle East and Mediterranean, 2005. Issues of Employment and Migration across MENA Region High open unemployment across the MENA region. Increasing labour supply needs twice jobs by 2020 Weak private sector & over-burdened state sector. Large and increasing informal sectors [Maghreb, Israel, Turkey and Mashrek] Emergence of the region as ‘transit zones’ [Maghreb, Turkey] & recipients of trafficked persons [GCC, Israel] Structural dependence on immigrant labour [GCC] or on remittances and emigration as safetyvalve for unemployed [Maghreb, Mashrek] Loss of skilled workers [Maghreb, Mashrek] M. Baldwin-Edwards, Migration in the Middle East and Mediterranean, GCIM Regional Study on the Middle East and Mediterranean, 2005. Importance of Remittances of Workers from the MENA Region World Bank (2003) Recent Immigration Policies in MENA Region Regional initiatives include the so-called 5+5 Dialogue on Migration in the Western Mediterranean, hosted by the IOM in 2002, 2003 and 2004. Partner countries are Algeria, Spain, France, Italy, Libya, Malta, Morocco, Mauritania, Portugal and Tunisia. Meetings co-ordinated by ICMPD on transit migration in the Mediterranean involving from the MENA region Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey, plus European countries and the European Commission as observer (ICMPD, 2004b). M. Baldwin-Edwards, Migration in the Middle East and Mediterranean, GCIM Regional Study on the Middle East and Mediterranean, 2005 Adaption to Climate Migration in Coasts In the MENA region and for the greater Mediterranean watershed, displacement migration and re-settlement needs to be seen as a human adaptive response to climate change. Migrants will need to be accommodated in urban settlements and different sectors of coasts. Need for thoughtful debate about treatment of internal (displacement) and international migrants. Different responses may be required depending on the origin and needs of migrants. Significant international support may be required for MENA countries who experience significant internal and international migrations. Adaption to Climate Migration in Coasts Necessary human services include homes and roads, energy, water, health and education infrastructure, and re-training. Additional support must be provided to sectors such as agriculture (as marginal land may be farmed), energy, fisheries, water, and services (particularly local business and tourism), which will have to absorb or support migrants. Water quality issues must be managed in coasts. Given existing coastal stresses, climate induced migration will create additional pressures on coastal ecosystems and the eco-services they provide, requiring flexible precautionary management. Mitigative Responses : Energy and Water Mitigation must also be considered, especially in the provision of water, energy and the built environment for climate migrants. For energy, this includes provision and expansion of low carbon energy services; for example, the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. While energy efficiency can be encouraged, there will be significantly increased energy needs and demands, particularly for cooling throughout MENA Region, and increasing energy poverty. . Mitigative Responses : Energy and Water For MENA countries, appropriate water services need to be widely developed and introduced. Even where potable water is widely available, there are continuing issues of water quality and treatment of water and human and industrial contaminants, resulting in aquifer and coastal contamination, and increasing loss of ecosystem services. Water services can be low carbon with respect to techniques for desalination, treatment , re-use and re-circulation of domestic and industrial grey water, and changing water practises for agriculture, industry and urban settlements. Proposed Electricity Grid Development : Integrating Europe and the MENA Region and Reducing Climate- Induced Energy Shortages Proposed Electricity Grid for South-West Europe including link with Africa (Tunisia or Algeria) and Eastern Mediterranean Sea (Turkey), Facilitating Greater Energy Flexibility for MENA Region. Desertec Proposal including Super Smart Grid & Export of Solar Energy Production: Can the MENA Region export low carbon electricity to Europe, and thus assist both regions in adapting to the impacts of, and also mitigating climate migration. Mitigative Responses : Built Environment Low carbon construction and water and energy efficiency for homes and roads, health & education infrastructure. Opportunity for radical re-design and also for reuse of traditional building practises for the region which require less cooling, and lower energy and water uses. The built environment offers one of the best opportunities for mitigation due to water and energy uses in – Materials, use, including abandonment and recycling – Construction & operation Mitigative Responses : Built Environment Example, the use of local materials, and historic and modern construction techniques to reduce carbon, and increase recycling of materials, in the additional housing and infrastructure required. Example reducing water contamination from agriculture or rural areas in the Berber dry toilet, that combines and composts human and animal wastes. Another example is thick walled construction & use of wind tower for cooling in the Gulf States and elsewhere. Wind Towers Complementary Climate and Coastal Approaches UNEP Regional Seas: The Barcelona Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment and the Coastal Region of the Mediterranean The Global Water Partnership (GWP) Mediterranean, recognizes and begins regional a coastal, water and marine component for climate and integrated watershed management. UN Economic Commission for Europe Water Convention, and Guidelines for Water and Climate. The European Union has most advanced approach including: Proposed directive on adaptation to climate change EU Water Framework Directive, a legal framework to protect and restore clean water for its long-term and sustainable use. EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive extends water legislation to the marine environment, and is the environmental component of Europe’s cross-sectoral Integrated Maritime Policy. International Legal Approaches for Climatic Migration A combination of existing norms and frameworks for environment, humanitarian, and refugee law and regional , and ad hoc measures may offer the most promising approach An exception may be the rights of international migrants, who are permanently and forcibly displaced by changing environmental conditions. A soft law approach may offer the most potential in the short term due to the reluctance of many countries, including MENA states, to enter further binding international conventions. Applicability of World Bank Policies The most comparable experiences may be programmes that resettle persons displaced by dams, reservoirs, urban renewal, mining and other development. The World Bank and regional development banks have guidelines for measuring the adequacy of resettlement plans relevant to resettlement in the environmental context. For example, for projects involving involuntary resettlement the World Bank requires a Resettlement Action Plan which includes: -a statement of policy principles; - a list or matrix for compensation and assistance; - a review of the extent and scope of resettlement - an implementation plan for responsibility for delivery assistance and evaluating the organizational capacity of involved agencies; - a resettlement timetable and project timetable; and - discussion of opportunities for those affected to participate in the design and implementation of resettlement programmes. Conclusions and Recommendations Impacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate migration requires a holistic, social and ecosystem-based approach that recognizes the inevitability and necessity of that migration. Need to reduce the human, social and ecosystemic cost of climate migration and the burden for the coast, coastal settlements, and coastal countries through adaptive and mitigative strategies, including appropriate transfers of resources and joint actions. . Conclusions and Recommendations Climate migrants should not be considered illegal migrants, or allowed to become an increasing, non-integrated and de-stabilizing force for the MENA and greater Mediterranean regions. Approaches to climate migration from other regions of the world such as the circumpolar Arctic and Small Island Developing States should also be considered. Globally, there are important parallels for climate impacts on indigenous peoples, pastoralists, and subsistence farmers and fishers; and perhaps cooperative approaches to adaptation and mitigation. Je vous remercie Magdalena A K Muir [email protected] [email protected] 001 403 305 3393 www.eucc.net