Download Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Induced Migration In Coastal and

Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Induced Migration
In Coastal and Marine Zones of the
Middle East, North Africa and Mediterranean
by
Magdalena A K Muir
Advisory Board Member, Climate, Coastal and Marine Union &
Research Associate, Arctic Institute of North America
for
First Workshop on Climate Induced Migration and
Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa
Organized by World Bank and French Development Agency
Marseille, France, June 15-16, 2010
Coastal and Marine Union (EUCC)
The Coastal & Marine Union (EUCC) has 2700
members and organisations in 40 countries.
Largest European network of coastal and marine
practitioners /experts with 15 national branches.
International office in Leiden, Netherlands with
regional offices for the Baltic, Black and
Mediterranean Seas.
The EUCC engaged in climate change issues at
international and European level since 2004,
including developing capacity and adaptive and
mitigative responses in MENA countries.
Introduction
Mediterranean coastal zones have high populations
and concentrated uses and infrastructure.
Coastal zones are vital for their high biological
productivity, and the link they between terrestrial
and aquatic ecosystems.
This presentation focuses on coastal and marine
zones, impacts of climate change for urban
settlements and sectors such as agriculture, built
environment, energy, fisheries and tourism.
Then a review of possible climate induced
immigration within and from the MENA countries.
Climate change impacts and adaptive and
mitigative responses for climate migration are
examined, with specific focus on energy, water,
and the built environment.
The presentation concludes with recommendations.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions
share common and different characteristics, as
common climate impacts, and being the sources
and recipients of migrants and migration.
MENA Region : Rapidly developing tourism and
industrial activities along coasts, combined with rapid
population growth, which impacting coastal ecosystems.
IPCC (2007)
WBGU (2008)
Overview of Climate Impacts
Water shortages and poor harvests in the
droughts of the 1990s exposed the acute
vulnerability of the MENA region.
Future climate change could critically
undermine efforts for sustainable
development.
Climate change may add to existing problems
of desertification, water scarcity and food
production, and introduce new threats to
human health, ecosystems &national
economies.
Adaptation possible but long-term
sustainability of the MENA region requires
global emissions reductions.
MEDSOC (2009)
Impacts of Climate Change in the MENA Region
Significant uncertainties for predictions of
regional climate changes, but likely that the
region will warm significantly.
Most projections point to more precipitation in
winter and less in summer for the region.
A common feature of many projections is
declining annual precipitation south of 45° N,
with increases to the north.
Even areas receiving more precipitation may get
drier, due to increased evaporation and
changes in the seasonal distribution of rainfall
and its intensity.
Impacts of Climate Change in MENA Region
First impacts of climate change felt in the water
resource system. In Egypt, Libya, Tunisia,
Algeria, Morocco, Syria, Malta and the Lebanon,
water availability already falls below, or
approaches conditions of, water scarcity.
Water could become salty due to salt water
infiltration for rivers and coastal aquifers as sea
level rises. Water pollution worsens as
pollutants become more concentrated with
reduced rivers, and sanitary impacts of
increased untreated water and sewage.
Increased heat and vertical stratification of coasts
and lakes increase effects of eutrophication.
Desertification, Agriculture, Fisheries and Migration
Climate Change in Northern Africa and Agriculture
African countries are expected to lose a great
deal of their agricultural capacity. Analyzing a
series of climate-related agricultural models,
by 2080, production losses in countries within
the equatorial belt could rise to 60 per cent.
Losses may reach 56 per cent in Sudan, 52 per
cent in Senegal,39 per cent in Morocco, 36 per
cent in Algeria and Mali, 31 per cent in
Ethiopia, 19 per cent in Nigeria and 47 per cent
in the southern African region.
Cline, W. 2007 Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by
Country,Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Washington, DC.
Impacts of Climate Change Coastal and Marine Zones
Climate change will cause additional pressures on
coastal zones, urban settlements and sectors
throughout the MENA region
Many valuable ecosystems could be lost as
species cant shift with their climate boundaries
or find their migration paths blocked by human
activities. Wetland sites will face the dual
threats of drying out and sea level rise.
Given additional urban coastal development,
more energy required for cooling, and more
concentrated adverse impacts on water quality
and quantity.
Example: Declining
precipitation in Morocco
increases rural poverty and
crop failure and mobilizes
subsistence farmers,
herders and labourers.
Development and pollution
at coasts contaminates
coastal fisheries, affecting
subsistence fishers.
Example of sustainable
agriculture, biodiversity and local
participation in the Abipa C3F
project, Cape Three Forks in
northeastern Morocco.
Example: Beirut and increasing urban water shortages and
quality requiring water tanks and mobile water trucks
Example: Athens: Scale of urban development,
multiple climate challenges, and conceptual
framework for integrated approach to climate change
(CIRCE Urban Case Studies)
Example: Alexandra and
the west Nile Delta,
Egypt and vulnerability
to sea level rise in low
areas near Alexandra
(CIRCE Urban and Coastal Case
Studies)
Gulf of Gabes in Tunesia: Vulnerability of gulf, fishing
and tourism to sea level warming, rising and erosion
Example: Gulf of Oran, Syria: Economically
beneficial hydrocarbon sector pollutes coasts, and
adversely affects under-developed fisheries sector.
Climate Migrants and MENA Region : Introduction
Climate migrations and migrants will occur
from and within MENA countries and
externally, particularly subsistence farmers
and fishers, due to reduced or failed
ecosystems and services.
Influx of climate migrants will put additional
pressure on already stressed ecosystems,
and growing coastal settlements and sectors
in MENA countries.
Deterioration in MENA coastal zones could
cause migration into Europe or Gulf States.
Need to explore range of adaptive and
mitigative responses to climate migration,
and how to reduce sectoral impacts in coasts.
Who and What are Climate Migrants?
“Persons or groups of persons who, for compelling
reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the
environment that adversely affect their lives or
living conditions, are obliged to leave their homes
or choose to do so, either temporarily or
permanently, and who move either within their
country or abroad”
(From speech by IOM Director General, Brunson McKinley describing
environmental migrants at the Institute for Public Policy Research
Conference on Climate Change and Forced Migration)
Migration may be internal or international;
temporary, seasonal or permanent. Those most
affected by climate change may not migrate.
Migration may occur as international immigration,
internal displacement or successive movements
of peoples to, in, from and through MENA
countries.
Recent History of Migration in MENA Region
From the post-World War II, the migration of
peoples has been massive and in flux:
- From discouragement of emigration from
Maghreb and other countries,
- Followed by Europe’s 1960s labour
immigration from Turkey and the Maghreb,
- Through oil-financed economic expansion of
GCC countries and guest workers,
- Followed by two Gulf crises and mass
expulsions of Arab guest workers, and
- Now with surplus labour force and high
unemployment throughout the MENA region.
M. Baldwin-Edwards, Migration in the Middle East and Mediterranean,
GCIM Regional Study on the Middle East and Mediterranean, 2005.
Issues of Employment and Migration across MENA Region
High open unemployment across the MENA region.
Increasing labour supply needs twice jobs by 2020
Weak private sector & over-burdened state sector.
Large and increasing informal sectors [Maghreb,
Israel, Turkey and Mashrek]
Emergence of the region as ‘transit zones’
[Maghreb, Turkey] & recipients of trafficked
persons [GCC, Israel]
Structural dependence on immigrant labour [GCC]
or on remittances and emigration as safetyvalve for unemployed [Maghreb, Mashrek]
Loss of skilled workers [Maghreb, Mashrek]
M. Baldwin-Edwards, Migration in the Middle East and Mediterranean,
GCIM Regional Study on the Middle East and Mediterranean, 2005.
Importance of Remittances of Workers from the MENA Region
World Bank (2003)
Recent Immigration Policies in MENA Region
Regional initiatives include the so-called 5+5
Dialogue on Migration in the Western
Mediterranean, hosted by the IOM in 2002,
2003 and 2004. Partner countries are Algeria,
Spain, France, Italy, Libya, Malta, Morocco,
Mauritania, Portugal and Tunisia.
Meetings co-ordinated by ICMPD on transit
migration in the Mediterranean involving from
the MENA region Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon,
Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey,
plus European countries and the European
Commission as observer (ICMPD, 2004b).
M. Baldwin-Edwards, Migration in the Middle East and
Mediterranean, GCIM Regional Study on the Middle East and
Mediterranean, 2005
Adaption to Climate Migration in Coasts
In the MENA region and for the greater
Mediterranean watershed, displacement
migration and re-settlement needs to be seen
as a human adaptive response to climate
change.
Migrants will need to be accommodated in urban
settlements and different sectors of coasts.
Need for thoughtful debate about treatment of
internal (displacement) and international
migrants. Different responses may be required
depending on the origin and needs of migrants.
Significant international support may be required
for MENA countries who experience significant
internal and international migrations.
Adaption to Climate Migration in Coasts
Necessary human services include homes and
roads, energy, water, health and education
infrastructure, and re-training.
Additional support must be provided to sectors
such as agriculture (as marginal land may be
farmed), energy, fisheries, water, and services
(particularly local business and tourism), which
will have to absorb or support migrants.
Water quality issues must be managed in coasts.
Given existing coastal stresses, climate induced
migration will create additional pressures on
coastal ecosystems and the eco-services they
provide, requiring flexible precautionary
management.
Mitigative Responses : Energy and Water
Mitigation must also be considered,
especially in the provision of water,
energy and the built environment for
climate migrants.
For energy, this includes provision and
expansion of low carbon energy services;
for example, the generation, transmission
and distribution of electricity.
While energy efficiency can be encouraged,
there will be significantly increased
energy needs and demands, particularly
for cooling throughout MENA Region, and
increasing energy poverty.
.
Mitigative Responses : Energy and Water
For MENA countries, appropriate water services
need to be widely developed and introduced.
Even where potable water is widely available,
there are continuing issues of water quality and
treatment of water and human and industrial
contaminants, resulting in aquifer and coastal
contamination, and increasing loss of
ecosystem services.
Water services can be low carbon with respect to
techniques for desalination, treatment , re-use
and re-circulation of domestic and industrial
grey water, and changing water practises for
agriculture, industry and urban settlements.
Proposed Electricity Grid Development :
Integrating Europe and the MENA Region and
Reducing Climate- Induced Energy Shortages
Proposed Electricity Grid for South-West Europe
including link with Africa (Tunisia or Algeria) and
Eastern Mediterranean Sea (Turkey), Facilitating
Greater Energy Flexibility for MENA Region.
Desertec Proposal including Super Smart Grid &
Export of Solar Energy Production: Can the MENA
Region export low carbon electricity to Europe, and
thus assist both regions in adapting to the impacts
of, and also mitigating climate migration.
Mitigative Responses : Built Environment
Low carbon construction and water and energy
efficiency for homes and roads, health &
education infrastructure.
Opportunity for radical re-design and also for reuse of traditional building practises for the
region which require less cooling, and lower
energy and water uses.
The built environment offers one of the best
opportunities for mitigation due to water and
energy uses in
– Materials, use, including abandonment and
recycling
– Construction & operation
Mitigative Responses : Built Environment
Example, the use of local materials, and historic
and modern construction techniques to reduce
carbon, and increase recycling of materials, in
the additional housing and infrastructure
required.
Example reducing water contamination from
agriculture or rural areas in the Berber dry
toilet, that combines and composts human and
animal wastes.
Another example is thick walled construction &
use of wind tower for cooling in the Gulf States
and elsewhere.
Wind Towers
Complementary Climate and Coastal Approaches
UNEP Regional Seas: The Barcelona Convention for the
Protection of the Marine Environment and the Coastal
Region of the Mediterranean
The Global Water Partnership (GWP) Mediterranean,
recognizes and begins regional a coastal, water and
marine component for climate and integrated watershed
management.
UN Economic Commission for Europe Water Convention, and
Guidelines for Water and Climate.
The European Union has most advanced approach including:
Proposed directive on adaptation to climate change
EU Water Framework Directive, a legal framework to
protect and restore clean water for its long-term and
sustainable use.
EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive extends water
legislation to the marine environment, and is the
environmental component of Europe’s cross-sectoral
Integrated Maritime Policy.
International Legal Approaches for Climatic Migration
A combination of existing norms and frameworks
for environment, humanitarian, and refugee
law and regional , and ad hoc measures may
offer the most promising approach
An exception may be the rights of international
migrants, who are permanently and forcibly
displaced by changing environmental
conditions.
A soft law approach may offer the most potential
in the short term due to the reluctance of many
countries, including MENA states, to enter
further binding international conventions.
Applicability of World Bank Policies
The most comparable experiences may be programmes
that resettle persons displaced by dams, reservoirs,
urban renewal, mining and other development. The
World Bank and regional development banks have
guidelines for measuring the adequacy of resettlement
plans relevant to resettlement in the environmental
context.
For example, for projects involving involuntary resettlement the
World Bank requires a Resettlement Action Plan which includes:
-a statement of policy principles;
- a list or matrix for compensation and assistance;
- a review of the extent and scope of resettlement
- an implementation plan for responsibility for delivery assistance
and evaluating the organizational capacity of involved agencies;
- a resettlement timetable and project timetable; and
- discussion of opportunities for those affected to participate in
the design and implementation of resettlement programmes.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Impacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate
migration requires a holistic, social and
ecosystem-based approach that recognizes
the inevitability and necessity of that
migration.
Need to reduce the human, social and
ecosystemic cost of climate migration and
the burden for the coast, coastal
settlements, and coastal countries through
adaptive and mitigative strategies, including
appropriate transfers of resources and joint
actions.
.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Climate migrants should not be considered
illegal migrants, or allowed to become an
increasing, non-integrated and de-stabilizing
force for the MENA and greater
Mediterranean regions.
Approaches to climate migration from other
regions of the world such as the circumpolar
Arctic and Small Island Developing States
should also be considered.
Globally, there are important parallels for
climate impacts on indigenous peoples,
pastoralists, and subsistence farmers and
fishers; and perhaps cooperative approaches
to adaptation and mitigation.
Je vous remercie
Magdalena A K Muir
[email protected]
[email protected]
001 403 305 3393
www.eucc.net