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Climate change mitigation EU and Russia Alexander Fedorov Centre for Environmental Initiatives, St.Petersburg Alexey Kokorin WWF-Russia, Moscow EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 1 Temperature variations in the 20th century Russia N. Hemisphere World EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 2 Number of dangerous weather events in Russia 1991 - 2005 EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 3 Number of dangerous weather events in Russia 1991 - 2005 70% Warm period (Apr. – Oct.) 30% Cold period (Nov. – March) EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 4 Types of dangerous weather events in Russia 1991 – 2005, % 1 – wind storms; 2 – snow storms; 3 – showers, thunderstorms, hails; 4 – frosts, heats; 5 – floods; 6 – avalanches, mudflows; 7 – draughts; 8 – fires; 9 – others. EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 5 Russian public and stakeholders’ opinions on climate change 3 years ago now Climate change takes place 50% 90% Climate Change is negative for Russia 30% 70% Reason of current climate change is anthropogenic GHG emission 10% 30% Urgent actions are necessary 5% 10% EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 6 GHG emissions in Russia in 1990-2004 Выбросы, -экв млн.т. СО22-eq. Mt CO Emissions, 3500 Waste 3000 2500 Industry 2000 Agriculture 1500 1000 1990 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Годы Years EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 Energy 7 GDP power intensity in 5 regions of the world Energy consumption for production of 1 M€ GDP (toe, 2003) EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 8 The Russian GDP Power Intensity GDP and Use of Energy and Heat, % of 1990 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 GDP Energy use Clear difference between GDP and GHG emissions trends EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 9 Russian MEDT post-2012 scenario (Russian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade) MEDT Fast Development Scenario GHG emisisons in 1990-2015 Mt СО2-eq 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2015: -22% of 1990; 2020: -17% of 1990 EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 10 Official view of MEDT www.economy.gov.ru ● Russia shares global responsibility for increase of GHG emissions, and aims to reach the UNFCCC goals, based on the necessity of limiting technogenic emissions and increase of absorption by GHG absorbers in accordance with its economic opportunities and principles of sustainable development. ● Presently, Russia decreases the GDP power intensity by 4 percent per year and more. ● Analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Schemes (EU ETS) shows that in the foreseeable future (2013 – 2017) Russian business will not be able to use this system in a considerable scope. EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 11 Progress in Kyoto Protocol implementation in Russia ● Progress in GHG Inventory and Registry Problems: ● Absence of sense of urgency ● Politicians, stakeholders and public (70%) are not sure that current climate change is anthropogenic ● Suspending of Joint Implementation (JI) projects (30-50 projects) due to absence of progress in domestic JI Regulation EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 12 Consequences of climate change in the Baltic Sea Region ● Neva River run-off increasing: 10% by 2015 => decreasing salinity in the Baltic Sea ● Ice weakening => damage to grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica) ● Number of dangerous weather events growing: ~ 7% per year (almost twice by 2015) ● Winds pressure on power transmission line increasing: ~ 20% in 10 years ● Ground waters rising => damage to buildings & agriculture EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 13 Proposal 1 Foster Joint Implementation projects EU: ● Work also with other actors in Russia, including NGOs, additionally to governmental institutions, to find partners for JIPs in Russia, to considerably broaden the choice Russia: ● Put down barriers to JIPs, incl.: - simplify JIPs registration to ‘one window’ procedures - low down the threshold limit for a project - etc. EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 14 Proposal 2 Foster Energy Efficiency and Renewables EU: Russia: ● Share/transfer experience ● Adopt relevant laws ● Co-operate with NGOs ● Adopt relevant state programmes ● Co-operate with NGOs EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 15 Thank you for your attention! Climate change mitigation EU and Russia Alexander Fedorov Centre for Environmental Initiatives, St.Petersburg [email protected] Alexey Kokorin WWF-Russia, Moscow [email protected] EU – Russia Citizens’ Forum, Lahti - St.Petersburg, 17-20.11.2006 16