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Background Note for Preparation of New Common Development Plan (CDP) 1. Introduction: The UN Kosovo Team has initiated a process of development for the next UN Common Development Plan (CDP) which will focus and harmonize the work of the UN Organizations in Kosovo over the next five years. The references from the UN Development Group (UNDG) point out that discussions for the drafting of new UN Development Assistance Frameworks (UNDAF)/Common Development Plans (CDP) should commence by assessing the situation in which country/territory is in relation to the standards set in the Millennium Declaration (MDGs) with clear focus on MDGs and other international agreed development goals to determine where a development problem exists and its intensity/severity as well as by describing the situation of different groups that are more unfavourably affected by poverty and other development outcomes i.e. women, minorities, indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, migrants and displaced persons etc. The objective of this background note in particular is to shed light on these initial requirements of the UNDG and in this way facilitate the early discussions among UN Organizations in preparing the new CDP for the period of 2015-2020. This note is organized into four sub-sections. Sub-section two explains the situation in Kosovo in relation to the standards set in the Millennium Declaration (MDGs). Subsection three provides some information on how different groups are affected from various development outcomes and finally sub-section four presents some key conclusions gathered from current CDP Monitoring and Evaluation Plan highlighting some key strength and gaps about UN Organizations’ contributions. 2. Status of the MDG and Human Development Indicators Economic growth: Economic growth is the most powerful instrument for reducing poverty and improving standards of living. The economy in Kosovo grew at different paces during last ten years. The Kosovo economy grew at a very high average rate of 6.3 percent per annum between 2006 and 2008, but it has not been able to sustain such a high growth rate starting from 2009 (in the wake of economic downturn) up until now. During the 2009-2013 period, the Kosovo economy grew at a much lower pace - at an average rate of 3.3 percent per annum. The main contributors to this economic growth also changed after the 2009 period. While before, the main contributor of this growth was the private sector (consumption and investment), in the period after the global crisis, the economic growth rate was backed primarily by the growing government expenditures rather than by private sector investment and consumption. However, in countries with growing populations, increases in human welfare and standards of living is better measured with real GDP per capita growth and not by real GDP growth because it takes into account the ability of a nation to expand its output at a rate faster than the growth of its population. When economic growth is measured with real GDP per capita, economic growth rates further decline. Income in Kosovo, when the population growth rate is taking into account, declines to 4.8 percent per annum during the period 2006 – 2008 and 1.8 percent per annum during the period from 2009 to 2013. At this latest pace (1.8 percent per annum), incomes in Kosovo will double every 39 years allowing the next generation to enjoy a level of living standards that is twice as high as the previous generations. Thus, in 1 order to reach the current level of incomes of Montenegro, with the current growth pace of 1.8 percent per annum, Kosovan citizens will have to wait another 39 years. Table 1: Average economic growth rate 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3.4 8.3 7.2 3.5 3.2 Real GDP growth rate, (%) 1.9 6.8 5.7 2 1.7 Real GDP per capita growth rate (%) Source: KAS, National Accounts and IMF 2012 2013 4.4 2.5 2.9 Average growth rates, (%) between 2006-2008 6.3 2.9 1 1.4 4.8 Average growth rates, (%) between 2009-2013 3.3 1.8 The current growth pace and pattern of this growth (which was based on government spending and private consumption fuelled also by remittances and non–productive private investment such as construction) is also not sufficient to translate into significant changes in other development indicators such as rapid improvements in unemployment and poverty rates, or to achieve better education and health outcomes. Less than 2 per cent growth in per capita GDP is not a guarantee of 2 per cent annual growth in per capita personal consumption which is required for a reduction in poverty, since in addition to individuals, there are other claimants to GDP, e.g., business and government. Experiences in other countries too show that 2 per cent growth in per capita GDP translates to a minimum of 1 per cent annual growth in per capita personal consumption. This would barely prevent an increase in poverty if there is more than a very modest increase in inequality. Poverty: Income poverty remains persistent and widespread based on the latest available data. A report produced by the Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS) on Consumption Poverty found that in 2011 about 30 percent of the population in Kosovo was poor1 unable to meet human needs and 10 percent was extremely poor2 unable even to meet basic survival needs. These poverty rates are very high compared to neighbouring countries and have not significantly changed when compared to previous years. The reports from the World Bank and UNDP also identify that poverty and vulnerability levels would be much higher without the safety net provided through migration and remittances.3 On the other hand, the poverty gap which measures the ‘depth’ of poverty - and takes into account both the percentage of the population below the poverty line as well as the size of the gap between the poverty line and the average consumption of those below the poverty line has been slightly decreased. From 2009 to 2011 the depth of poverty based on the full poverty line declined from 9.6% to 7.8%. A similar trend characterises changes in the extreme poverty gap. From 2009 to 2011 the extreme poverty gap declined from 3% to 2.1%. This 1 Living below the poverty line of Euro 1.72 per adult equivalent per day in 2002 prices Living below the extreme (food) poverty line of Euro 1.20 per day in 2002 prices 3 See for example KAS & UNDP, Study on Remmitances in Kosovo, 2013 2 2 implies the shallowness of the poverty and the amount of money needed to bring the population out of extreme and absolute poverty. Unemployment: Similar to poverty, the labour market outcomes also remained unchanged. In 2012 approximately 31 percent of the labour force is estimated to be unemployed.4 The measures of labour resources utilisation such as the labour force participation rate5 and employment rate6 are the lowest in the Western Balkan region (36.9% and 25.5% respectively) and far lower than average EU figures. In Particular, the same measures for women are extremely low (respectively 17.8% and 10.7%). Indeed, Kosovo has not succeeded in raising the share of the population that is employed and offer an adequate level of employment opportunities. Employment-to-population ratios have therefore stayed nearly unchanged during the last decade. The same data indicates that in fact that more than 60 percent of the working age population in Kosovo was inactive in 2012, to a large extent demonstrating a high incidence of worker discouragement due to the poor performance of the economy. The same inactivity and instruction of a new methodology applied are the reasons behind the recent decrease of the unemployment rate, since this decrease was not realized as a result of an increase in the employment rate. Figure 1: Key labour market outcomes for Kosovo 70 60 employment rate 50 40 unemployme nt rate 30 20 Inactivity rate 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 Source: KAS, Labour Force Surveys Figure 2: Labour market outcomes for Kosovo and other countries in the Western Balkans 70 60 Employ ment rates 50 40 30 Unemp loymen t Rates 20 10 0 EU 27 CRO MNG MAC SER ALB B&H KOS 4 KAS, Results of the Kosovo 2012 Labour Force Survey, 2013 Employment and unemployment to working age of population ratio. 6 Employment to working age population ratio. 5 3 Source: Labour Force Surveys Education: Human capital and its rate of growth is important to economic success, as it is essential for a satisfying and rewarding human lives, as well as being fundamental to the broader notion of expanded human capabilities that lie at the heart of the meaning of development. Most human capital is built up through education or training. In the education sector, there has been a steady growth in the total number of students attending secondary and especially in tertiary education. Gross enrolment in upper secondary education (general and VET) in 2011/12 was 92 percent and 5 percentage points higher from what was realized in 2009/10.7 Compared to other regional countries, the gross enrolment rate of 92 percent in Kosovo is much higher than many regional countries such as Croatia with 87 percent, Bosnia& Herzegovina 86 percent, Serbia 86 and Macedonia with 78 percent.8 Similarly, there has been a steady growth in the total number of students attending tertiary education in Kosovo due to the increasing number of private as well as public higher education institutions and a limited number of employment opportunities. The enrolment rate in tertiary education in 2010/2011 is estimated to be around 57 percent if it is compared to full population of 18 year of age and 67% compared to those who graduated from upper secondary schools and that had a right to pursue tertiary education.9 On the other hand, the percentage of students that dropped out from the upper-secondary education is also in decreasing trend. By the end of the school year 2011/2012 drop-out rates from upper secondary schools was 2.5% while the same figure was 3.1 percent by the end of school year 2009/2010.10 Similarly, literacy rates are higher than many developing countries and similar to the average rate for Eastern Europe and Central Asia.11 There is very limited information on what students are learning or what are the skills acquired from the education and training system, because crucial information is not available.12 Some studies, even though they are not regularly conducted, highlight both quality13 and relevance issues and challenges in the education system at different levels. The World Bank Survey (BEEPS) for Kosovo indicated that 45 of the businesses feel that the education and training of workers is inadequate and is a major or severe constraint for their business. Furthermore, the UNDP Survey for Human Development Report indicated that the skills and education of available workers is more of a problem for medium and small enterprises rather than for micro enterprises (see table 2) 7 See for example MEST, Kosovo Education Indicators, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12, 2013 page 69-70 Ibid page 71 9 However, these enrolment rates for tertiary education are a bit inflated since not all first time-enrolled students are comprised from newly graduates of upper secondary schools. 10 MEST, Kosovo Education Indicators 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12, 2013 11 Illiteracy rate in Kosovo is 3.8% among them 80 women. 12 Data gaps exist at both input as well as at output and outcome level for the education and training system. There are no systematically collected and disseminated data with regard to number of students who enroll in private higher education providers and education and training received by private (including NGOs) non-formal education and training providers (in terms of participation rates and hours of training). Neither data exists on learning outputs i.e., what students are learning nor on employment outcomes, whether they are working and what jobs they are doing. There are no functional international assessments in place, such as: PISA, PIRLS, TIMSS to measure skills competencies provided by providers for different level of education 13 Note that neither the number of students enrolled at a level of study nor the amount of resources invested in education can indicate the quality of education. 8 4 Table 2: Business perception of skills Micro Percentage of firms that consider the skills 37.4 and education of available of workers as a barrier to their business Source: Calculated from Human Development Survey, 2011 Small 46.7 Medium 60.7 Moreover, the results from the Baseline Study organized by GIZ and Chamber of Commerce with limited number of enterprises on carpentry, construction, and the metal sectors emphasised that Vocational Schools and Vocational Training Centre graduates do not understand and apply the basic mathematical and physical operations required to perform their job, neither are they able to analyse and solve problems using the logical, intuitive and creative thinking, indicating a lack of cognitive skills. Differences in public spending on education (relative to GDP) across countries reflect differences in government efforts to increase national stocks of human capital. Kosovo’s government devotes about 4.8% of its GDP to education. This share is similar to middle-income counties, but is smaller compared to high-income countries, which allocate around 6% of their GDP to education. Health: With regard to overall health conditions, measured with life expectancy at birth14 and the under-5 mortality rate15, these show much poorer results in Kosovo compared to any other country in the region. The life expectancy at birth is about 70 years in Kosovo, 9 years lower than Albania, 5 years lower then Macedonia and Serbia and 11 years lower than the EU average.16 Under - 5 mortality rate per live 1,000 births in 2011 was 13. This is the double the figure compared with those in EU countries, where the average under- 5 mortality rate is 6 per 1,000 live births. Similarly, maternal mortality rates are higher in Kosovo compared to other regional countries. While the maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births is 16.6 in Kosovo, the same rate from the regional countries for example in Macedonia, is 7, and this ratio in the main European countries is 4.17 The prevalence of TB is also much more widespread in Kosovo compared to regional countries and the EU. While in Albania the incidence of TB is 16 per 100,000 people, in Macedonia 18, and in main EU countries is 8, in Kosovo the incidence of TB is 53 per 100,000 people. Naturally, the prevention is the most effective public health measure. On the other hand, Kosovo is currently categorised in the group of states with a low rate of HIV. The infection rate is below 1% of the general population and below 5 percent of all groups threatened by the growing risk of HIV. The average level of public health expenditures in Kosovo is low compared to regional countries. It is about 2.2 percent of the GDP in Kosovo compared with 3 percent in Albania, 4.5 percent in Macedonia, 6 percent in Serbia and an average 6 percent for high-income countries.18 14 indicates the number of years a newborn baby would live if health conditions prevailing at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life. 15 indicates the number of newborn babies who are likely to die before reaching age 5 per 1,000 live births 16 UNDP, Kosovo Human Development Report, 2012 17 Ministrie e Shendetesise, Statistikat Shendetesore per Nenet dhe Femijet, 2012. And World Bank Development Indicators 18 The World Bank Development Indicators 5 Clean water and sanitation also play a significant role in increasing life expectancies. Roughly 70% of households have access to piped water from the public supply system, and around 71% have access to public sewage systems.19 These figures are far below the regional countries with the exception of Albania. The average figure for regional countries except Albania is 90% for piped water supply system and 95 % for sewage systems.20 Environmental sustainability: Environmental pollution and degradation of natural resources affect livelihood opportunities and poverty reduction, but also public health. The key environmental problems in Kosovo include air pollution, water scarcity and pollution, and land degradation. Air pollution is a critical environmental problem in urban areas, though less so for Kosovo as a whole. Ambient air quality is particularly poor in Prishtine/Pristina, the Obiliq/Obilic area, the Drenas area, and Mitrovice/a. The principal sources of contaminants are sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides NO and NO2 (NOx), ozone (O3), lead (Pb), carbon dioxide (CO2), particulate matter (PM or dust), and dioxin. The main sources are: Energy and mining, including the relatively old two coal-fired power plants of the Kosovo Energy Corporation (KEK) and its coal-mining area, wood and lignite for household heating, industrial complexes, such as Mitrovica Industrial Park (Trepca), nickel mining and production in Drenas/Gllogovc (Ferronikeli), and the cement factory in Hani Elexi (Sharrcem), and fossil fuels from increased traffic and old vehicles. Some of these industrial sites have emissions above the Limits as per EC Directive 2001/80/EC and Athens Memorandum.21 The yearly increase of emissions of all greenhouse gases is about 10 percent.22 Compared to per capita terms, Kosovo has relatively low emissions in comparison with other countries in Europe, (5.7 t CO2 equivalent per capita per annum in 2008) However, the compared per unit of GDP (0,84 kg CO2 equivalent per EUR in 2008) greenhouse gas emissions in Kosovo are much higher compared with other countries in Europe. Per capita emissions are just over half of the EU average (9.93 t) and emissions per unit of GDP are almost double of those in the EU average (0.4 kg/EUR).23 Over many years lead emissions have spread to air and water via lead and zinc mines and lead-processing facilities, known as hotspots.24 Thus, Zvecan and northern Mitrovice/a are lead hotspots due to their lead and zinc mines. Air emissions of lead have fallen dramatically since Zvecan’s smelter was shut, but lead mines and their tailings still contaminate the air (windborne dust), water, and soil (runoff and dust deposition). Similarly, the soil around Zvecan, still heavily contaminated by deposition of leaded particles, is a major source of lead exposure.25 Lead is well known to impair neuropsychological functioning in children, even at low levels of exposure since lead tends to accumulate in the organs and 19 KAS, Kosovo Census Atlas, 2011 WHO/UNICEF, Join Monitoring Programme for Water and Sanitation 21 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Report on State of Environment (2011-2012) stated that measurement of dust emissions exceeded the amount of dust of what is being allowed (50mg/Nm3) in power plants and Sharcem and Ferronikel and exceeded amount of NOx were also recorded in power plants. 22 School of Business, Economics and Law University of Gothenburg, Kosovo Environment and Climate Analysis 23 Climate Change Framework Strategy (CCFS) for Kosovo 24 Release of lead to air is also possible by vehicles fueled by leaded gasoline and possibly other indoor exposure sources. This exposure is likely higher in urban areas 25 The World Bank, Kosovo Country Environmental Analysis 20 6 blood. Kosovo Environmental Protection Agency (KEPA) has identified 110 polluted and contaminated sites. Of these, 28 sites are considered high pollution potential and proposed as environmental Hotspots. Kosovo is also facing both inadequate quality and quantity of its water resources. Chemical and bacteriological monitoring shows that the majority of rivers in Kosovo are polluted.26 The National Public Health Institute also has found that there are major bacterial residues in water supply systems especially in small towns and unacceptable drinking water quality (mainly due to bacteriological residues) in public water supply systems. The data from the National Institute of Health, also found that pollution in drinking water from bacteriological contamination is greater than from chemical contamination.27 Kosovo also struggles with land degradation from unplanned extension of settlements, industrial and sanitary landfills, and erosion. According to estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development (MAFRD) each year about 400 hectares of agricultural land is converted into construction land. Furthermore, as regards to environmental hotspots (land with mining dumps with concentration of heavy metals, agricultural waste, sanitary landfills hazardous industrial chemicals) it is estimated that 0.09 km2 of Kosovo territory is covered with endangered environments.28 Parts of the forests which cover roughly 44 percent of Kosovo’s territory are in bad condition due to inadequate management and illegal logging, leading also to increased soil erosion and landslides. The costs of forest degradation are estimated to be around 0.4 percent of GDP.29 The waste management system represents one of the major environmental challenges. Services for municipal waste collection barely cover 50 percent of the population (in urban areas this goes up to 90 percent but in rural areas 10 percent). Most of sanitary landfields are found to be operating under inappropriate conditions for collection, classification, recycling, and treatment systems and lack proper waste management for virtually all solid waste types (domestic, industrial, health care, and hazardous). These shortfalls cause serious health and environmental impacts, either from uncontrolled or poorly controlled waste disposal facilities or (particularly in rural areas) from the large amounts of waste simply uncollected, dumped at illegal dumpsites (often near rivers, causing additional environmental hazards), or burned. Large volumes of coal ash (from the lignite-fired power plants) and mining waste are also dumped each year, without any measures for recycling.30 The annual cost of environmental degradation in Kosovo is estimated at around 5 percent of GDP.31 Finally, climate change is likely to enhance already existing climate variations. Exposure to hazards such as droughts, floods, and forest fires will become greater following climate change. Projections for the whole region indicate warmer temperatures and more irregularity in precipitation. Predicted consequences of climate change are enhanced occurrences of heat waves, droughts and forest fires, as well as floods. Therefore the climate change has a potential to jeopardize the livelihoods of those who rely on natural 26 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Report on State of Environment (2011-2012) stated it was recorded an increased value of ammonium ion parameter (NH2+/mg/l) from major rivers in Kosovo: An exceeded value of metal cooper is recorded in Klina river, exceeded value of zinc in Sitnica river in Mitrovica, exceeded value of iron in river Graqank and in river basin of Morava I Binqes; exceeded value of chromium, iron and zinc was recorded in river basin of Lepenci,. 27 The World Bank, Kosovo Country Environmental Analysis 28 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Report on State of Environment (2011-2012) 29 The World Bank, Kosovo Country Environmental Analysis 30 Ibid 31 Ibid: The World Bank estimates that Air pollution is responsible for the highest costs of environmental degradation in Kosovo. Air pollution is estimated to cause 835 premature deaths, 310 new cases of chronic bronchitis, 600 hospital admissions and 11,600 emergency visits each year. 7 resources such as agriculture, forestry, and water resources, especially in rural areas, and increase the vulnerability of those living in areas with risk of landslides and floods.32 3. How different groups are effected by poverty and other development outcomes Poverty: Poverty in Kosovo is largely a rural phenomenon since two-thirds of the poor live in rural areas affecting disproportionately large families,33 self-employed agricultural households, precarious job holders (mainly ‘per diem’ workers) and those receiving social assistance beneficiaries. Although there is not a complete overlap between unemployment and poverty,34 and the risk of poverty is higher for subsistence farmers and per diem workers, the highest share of poor people are found among the unemployed. KAS noted that nearly 30 percent of poor adults are actually unemployed. Poverty is closely linked with education too. Less educated individuals tend to be poorer than more educated ones. More than one third of individuals who did not complete primary education live in poor households. Rural areas, in addition to being disproportionally deprived from income poverty, they also have a more limited access to the piped water supply and sanitation compared to urban areas.35 Rural areas have about 200 water supply systems directly run by communities and villages, covering about 65 percent of the rural population, though few of these systems are hygienic. Rural areas also face a higher risk of climate change especially those who rely for their livelihoods on natural resources such as agriculture, forestry, and water resources. Women: Available data presents clear evidence of persistent gender inequality. Compared to men, women in Kosovo are underrepresented in many political and decision making processes, have more limited access to employment, and other income generating opportunities, and a greater violation of human rights such as gender based violence. Women remain underrepresented both quantitatively and qualitatively in decision-making processes at all levels (see table below). The target of 40% representation defined by the law on gender equality for all level of decision making has not yet been achieved.36 Women hold 33.3% of the seats in the Kosovo Assembly (40 of 120 seats), on the other hand, 14 women were elected, while the quota enabled 24 to receive their positions. Women remain under-represented among ministers, deputy ministers, and chairs of assembly committees (see table below). Similarly, women are severely underrepresented in decisionmaking positions within municipalities; leading only 14 directorates in all of Kosovo (4.4%) and among Kosovo’s public employees, 38% are women. At this level, there is one woman major in the Gjakova/Djakovica municipality. 32 School of Business, Economics and Law University of Gothenburg, Kosovo Environment and Climate Analysis the highest poverty rate is found among households with eight members 34 Not all of the unemployed live in poor households, and not all of the employed are free from poverty. 35 World Bank, Kosovo Country Environmental Analysis 36 Law on General Elections in the Re-public of Kosovo and the Law on Local Elections in Kosovo, which both still call for 30% participation. 33 8 Table 3: Political participation disagregated based on gender Female Male Female Presidents (ever) 1 5 National Assembly Members 40 Prime Ministers (ever) 0 6 Chairs of Assembly Committees 1 Deputy Prime Ministers 2 3 Mayors 1 Ministers 1 17 Municipal Directors of Directorates 4.4% Deputy Ministers 1 34 Municipal Assembly Members 34% Foreign Missions 6 16 Civil Service 38% Source: Sweden Framework for Gender Equality: Country Gender Profile for Kosovo Male 80 8 32 95.6% 66% 61% On the other hand, no country in Europe has so few women participating in the labour market. Out of the working age population (16-64) 18 percent of women participate in the labour market (compared to 55% of men) while 82 percent are inactive. Despite lower activity rates, employment rates for women are lower and unemployment rates higher. Only 10.7 percent of working age women is actually working compared to 40% for men, while the unemployment rate is 40 percent for women and 28 percent for men.37 Less than 10% of businesses are women-led or women-owned, and the female businesses are smaller (women have on average 3.07 employees, compared to 5.27 among men-led businesses) and cannot access credit and loans as men because they lack collateral. Thus, men hold about 92% of collateral properties in Kosovo.38 Although the gap is decreasing, the gross enrolment rate in upper secondary education is lower for women than for men (88% for women and 95 for men).39 Similarly, women headedhouseholds appear to have a higher poverty rate than those households led by men (39.8 compared to 29). Although the legal framework offers equality for men and women over property rights, in 2014 women owned only 8% of property, including land ownership. During inheritance dissolution in the courts, women often waive their right to inherit, giving their share of family property to their brothers. In 2011, NGO Norma reported that out of 4,994 cases monitored in courts in five Kosovo regions, in only 487 cases (9.75%) did women and men receive equal inheritances.40 Furthermore, domestic violence appears to be widespread in Kosovo, and is a serious violation of fundamental human rights. Several forms of gender-based violence (GBV) exist in Kosovo, including violence against civilians during conflict, domestic violence etc. However, some forms of GBV impact women and men differently. Domestic violence appears to be the most prevalent form of GBV, particularly for women. Despite many improvements41 in the institutional framework to treat these cases, in 2013 1,087 domestic violence cases reported to police, while 80% of the victims were women. Police reports suggest that 91.1% of the perpetrators were men.42 37 ASK, Results of the Kosovo 2012 Labour Force Survey, 2013 ORGUT Consulting AB, Country Gender Profile for Kosovo, 2014 39 See for example MEST, Kosovo Education Indicators, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12, 2013 page 69-70 40 ORGUT Consulting AB, Country Gender Profile for Kosovo, 2014 41 Kosovo’s legal framework pertaining to GBV is fairly comprehensive, and coordination among institutions has improved in recent years, including with the appointment of a National Coordinator. Institutions, international actors, and CSOs have undertaken several efforts towards prevention, including strategies of working with men and boys towards transforming gender roles 42 ORGUT Consulting AB,Country Gender Profile for Kosovo, 2014 38 9 Youth: Young people in Kosovo face many challenges and are therefore in need of particular attention. Kosovo has the youngest population in Europe. Young women and men under 25 years old make up 47.3% of the population. Of these, 19.3% are aged between 15 and 24 years43 comprising about 30% of the working-age population. This youthful age distribution will inevitably lead to a further expansion of the labour force. It is estimated that in the next five years, roughly 200,000 young people will reach working age, while approximately 60.000 persons will reach retirement age in the same period. The ongoing net growth in the labour supply will further increase the difficulty of young women and men finding jobs in the years to come. At 43.5%, the youth unemployment rate is the highest among any group in the working age population. The youth unemployment rate in Kosovo is twice as high as the average for the European Union.44 In addition, young people in Kosovo currently face a very long transition period from school to work. The World Bank reports that it takes about 10 years for young males to transition from school to work in Kosovo, while in Macedonia it takes four to five years, and in developed countries it takes an average of about 1.4 years.45 Furhermore, 35.1% of the young people were totally disconnected from the labour market maining that they were not in education, employment or training. High shares of this group in the youth population raise concerns about the future employability of young people Youth is a crucial time of life and international evidence shows that long spells of inactivity during the years of one’s youth have long-term socio-economic costs. Studies show that high youth unemployment rates tend to be associated with increased crime and social instability.46 The Kosovo Youth strategy also indicates that youth participation in decision making processes and their influence in many important fields of their life is very low, even symbolic, Many are pessimistic about the future, and find their living standards “mediocre” at best. A recent survey conducted by UNDP indicates that about 47% of the youth responders would migrate due to economic hardship. 47 Ethnic minorities: The Roma, Ashkali and Egyptian (RAE) communities continues to be the most vulnerable in Kosovo. They face discrimination and various problems with regard to their education, especially when referring to their integration into the system of education which in turn impedes their inclusion in the society. Despite many efforts (MEST and OSCE have engaged for several years in offering programs of catch-up classes for students who have left schools) there are still large numbers of those who are either not included in education or drop out during school. According to the strategy for integration of RAE communities, the illiteracy rate for RAE is 16 percent, while 75 percent of students from RAE attend primary education, this rate drops significantly to 25 percent in secondary education, while those who graduated from university education is 1.4 percent. Because of poverty, a lot of children from these communities are made to leave school and engage in different jobs in efforts to help their families. Having in mind that employment prospects are directly correlated with education attainment, RAE community in this way is also disproportionately affected by poor employment opportunities. Many surveys demonstrated that RAE, if employed, occupy primarily lower level positions.48 Data from surveys on the ethnic structure of public companies in Kosovo demonstrate an unfavourable position of RAE communities. Public enterprises employed only 0.43% RAE. Furthermore, a large number of RAE in Kosovo lacks personal documentation that further complicates their ability to exercise their rights and access services. 43 KAS, Kosovo Population and Housing Census 2011 The average EU youth unemployment rate was 23% in 2012 45 World Bank, Youth in Jeopardy: Being Young, Unemployed and Poor in Kosovo, 2008. 46See for example Cincotta, Engelman, and Anastasion (2003); Urdal (2004). 47 Calculated from the survey conducted in April 2012 for Public Pulse Report nr. 4 48 International Labour Organisation, Wage and Skills Survey of the (March 2006) 44 10 IDPs and Returnees: Although there is lack of accurate data on displaced persons in Kosovo, UNHCR estimated that around 17,350 IDPs remained in Kosovo. The vast majority of K/Serbs and K/Albanians who were displaced originate from places where they represented a minority, as well as significant numbers from RAE communities. IDPs are often unable to access the full range of civil, political, economic, social, and cultural rights in displacement. The effective exercise of property rights is difficult. According to UNHCR and Ministry for Communities and Return (MCR), a significant number of IDPs still live in collective centres, without having proper access to essential services such as education, health care, and social benefits. A considerable number of refugees also started to return to Kosovo. In Kosovo about 1000 people are returning voluntarily per annum as reported by MCR. The various report findings revealed that DPs during the return process face many challenges such as a lack of infrastructure, access to the labour market as well as institutional support. Furthermore, failed asylum seekers are being forcefully returned to Kosovo from Western Europe. It is expected that in the near a future, considerable numbers will be (forcefully) returned from Western European countries, but also from countries such as Montenegro, and Macedonia. This return creates additional responsibilities for both the central government and the municipal authorities; a mass-scale return to Kosovo would even overburden the institutional capacities of institutions and society in Kosovo. 4. Key achievements and Gaps from current UN Common Development Plan (CDP) The UNKT undertook an M&E for CDP which captured achievements and gaps during the three years of CDP implementation. Based on the M&E, significant achievements have been realized at the output levels: Under outcome 1 of the CDP, significant progress has been achieved in supporting Ministries and the Assembly in drafting laws, sub-legal acts and strategies for social inclusion. With the technical and financial support of UNKT, 33 laws, 27 sub-legal acts, and 21 strategies have been developed49 in areas such as public services, health, housing, education and vocational training, family planning, social justice and employment. Furthermore, most of these laws, sub legal acts and strategies has also been adopted and promulgated by the relevant institutions, which is another success of the UNKT. Similarly, under outcome 2 of the CDP, significant progress has been achieved in supporting KAS and Ministries to produce reports and Management Information System (MIS) which depicts the relative position of vulnerable groups. About 30 reports have been prepared with technical and financial support from UNKT and 7 MIS systems have been developed to provide data at any point of time disaggregated by gender and key vulnerable groups. Furthermore, public institutions have been supported with a significant amount of training and practices by the UNKT to increase their the accountability and responsiveness. Within social justice, there is some strong evidence about success achieved, there is a significant increase in the number of people receiving legal assistance/aid or number of cases referred to mediation as an alternative dispute resolution mechanism including those from vulnerable groups. On the other hand, in relation to engagement with civil Society (outcome 2.2 of the CDP), many capacity development 49 Out of which 5 laws and 7 strategies jointly 11 initiatives have been undertaken by UNKT with CSO and vulnerable groups to initiate advocacy actions.50 At the local level, (outcome 3.1 of the CDP), UNKT has achieved significant progress in supporting municipalities in developing action plans, establishing consultative processes, piloting joint actions for addressing the needs of vulnerable groups including women, and implementing capital investment projects.51 Furthermore, under outcome 4.1 of the CDP, many municipalities have been supported in developing action plans on local environmental disaster risks, and the reduction and protection of natural resources. Finally, UNKT under outcome 4.2 of CDP has supported CSOs and local communities to undertake many public awareness raising campaigns, local community sessions, and advocacy actions in order to influence communities and individuals to make more responsible choices for the environment and healthier lifestyles.52 Despite these achievements, M&E framework provides little evidence of what the ‘uptake’ was behavioral or practice changes of duty bearers and right holders- and the sustainability and impact of these supportive initiatives. For example, how many of these promulgated laws, sub legal acts, and strategies for social inclusion under outcome 1 have been implemented, and more importantly how have the lives of different groups been influenced due to these laws, sub legal acts and strategies? Is the information and evidence generated by reports under outcome 2.1. used to inform decision making, and how effective were the many capacity development initiatives that have been undertaken by UNKT with CSO and vulnerable groups to initiate advocacy actions? As with outcome 1, more evidence is needed also local level i.e. what is the uptake and sustainability of these initiatives undertaken at local level or whether and to what extent these action plans have been implemented or are the mechanisms being supported functionally after the output is delivered etc. As a result, during the formulation of the next CDP, increased attention should be given to the formulation of results where UN entities will contribute by ‘joint efforts’. The formulation of the results should also capture capacity and performance improvements of the right-holders as well as duty bearers. These results should be then translated into a proper statements of output, outcomes, impacts and goals. Furthermore, each level of results should have performance indicators, baselines and targets which are relevant to the result, and which can be monitored regularly. For this to happen, UN entities should have a common understanding regarding the definitions and terminologies on the results chain as well as on performance indicators. 50 44 different advocacy actions were organized by CSO, 9 civic consultations with vulnerable groups and 5 women centered dialogue sessions with technical and financial support of UNKT 51 19 municipalities have been supported with developing action plans, 16 municipalities with establishing consultative processes. Furthermore, 10 joint initiatives were piloted at the local level for addressing the needs of vulnerable groups including women and municipalities were supported with 124 capital projects. 52 33 public awareness raising campaigns, 60 local community sessions were organized with support of UNKT as well as 9 advocacy actions by CSO on environmental issues. 12 Annex 1: MDG and HD Indicators which will be used in context analysis of the new CDP MDG Indicators Real GDP growth rate, (%) Real GDP per capita growth rate (%) Poverty Percentage of population below the absolute poverty line Percentage of population below the extreme poverty line Poverty gap ratio [incidence x depth of poverty] Prevalence of underweight children under 5 years of age Percentage of poor children within the total population of children Unemployment Labour force participation rate Employment rate, Unemployment rate KAS National Accounts, IMF 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3.5 3.2 4.4 2.5 2.9 2 1.7 2.9 1 1.4 MGD Goal 1. KAS, Consumption Poverty 2011 and 2010 34.5% (P.C, 2011, p.3) 29.2% (P.C, 2011, p.3) 29.7% (P.C, 2011, p.3) MGD Goal 1. KAS, Consumption Poverty 2011 and 2010 12.5% (P.C, 2011, p.3) 8.2% (P.C, 2011, p.3) 10.2% (P.C, 2011, p.3) MGD Goal 1. KAS, Consumption Poverty 2011 and 2010 X Absolute pov: 9.6 Exteme pov: 2.8 p.4 NA Absolute pov: 7.3 Exteme pov: 1.9 p.4 NA Absolute pov: 7.5 Exteme pov: 2.1 p.4 NA KAS, Consumption Poverty 2011 38.6 (P.C, 2011, p.6) 32.5 (P.C, 2011, p.6) 32.8 (P.C, 2011, p.6) LFS 2012 and LFS 2009 LFS 2012 and LFS 2009 48.1 (LFS, 2009, p.5) 26.4 (LFS, 2009, p.5) NA NA NA NA LFS 2012 and LFS 2009 45.4 (LFS, 2009, p.5) NA NA 30.9 (LFS, 2012, p.10) LFS 2012 and LFS 2009 51.9 (LFS, 2009, p.5) NA NA 63.1 (LFS, 2012, p.10) Education Indicators, MEST, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 Education Indicators, 5.06 p.82 4.76 p.82 4.88 p.82 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% MGD Goal 1. Kosovo MDG Report target 2 Kosovo MDG Report target 2 Inactivity rate Education Public expenditure on education (% of GDP) (%) Primary school dropout Info about the indicators exists and the source of info KAS National Accounts, IMF Kosovo MDG NA NA 36.9 (LFS, 2012, p.10) 25.6 (LFS, 2012, p.10) 13 rates (% of primary school cohort) Report target 4 Secondary school dropout rates (% of secondary school cohort) Adult literacy rate, both sexes (% aged 15 and above) Mean years of schooling (of adults) (years) Gross enrolment in education (%) Kosovo MDG Report target 4 MDG Goal 3 MEST, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 Education Indicators, MEST, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 KAS, Census results p.86 p.86 p.86 3.1% p.86 2.9% p.86 2.5% p.86 3.8% KHDR, 2014, 2012, 2010 Kosovo MDG Report target 4 Health Expenditure on health, public (% of GDP) (%) Education Indicators, MEST, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 11.4 p.30 68.6 (preprimary) 95.1 (primary) 99.8 (lower secondary) 86.9 (upper secondary) (p.68-71) 71.2 (pre-primary) 98.1 (primary) 96.4 (lower secondary) 91.7 (upper secondary) (p.68-71) 74 (pre-primary) 97.3 (primary) 100 (lower secondary) 92.1 (upper secondary) (p.68-71) 2.4% including Primary Health Care (PHC) 2.4% including PHC 1.7 2.4% including PHC 2.2 2.5% including PHC 14.5 Calculated 13 Ministrie e Shendetesise, Statistikat Shendetesore per Nenet dhe Femijet, 2012 KAS, Health Statistics Ministry of Finance and MoH calculations TransMonEE (only for 2011) TMEE data, 11.2 p.10 Under-five mortality (per 1,000 live births) MDG Goal 4 Infant mortality rate MGD Goal 4 TransMonEE (only for 2011) 13.1 Perinatal mortality rate Kosovo MDG Report Target 6 14.9 Calculated Proportion of 1 yearold children immunized against measles Kosovo MDG Report Target 7 TransMonEE (only for 2011) Perinatal Situation in Kosovo 2012, MoH) TransMonEE 2008-2012 19.3 94 19.1 96 17.87 96 2.9 including PHC 16.26 per 1000 17.34 92 14 Life expectancy at birth (years) KHDR, 2012, 2010 Maternal mortality ratio (deaths of women per100,000 live births) MDG Goal 5 Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel Contraceptive prevalence rate MDG Goal 5 Antenatal care coverage (at least on visit and at least four visits) Prevalence of HIV, Kosovo MDG Report Target 9 Proportion of population aged 15-24 years with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS Prevalence of and death rates associated with tuberculoses Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under DOTS Kosovo MDG Report target 10 Gender Ratio of girls and boys in secondary and tertiary education, (Ratio of female to male rates) MDG Goal 6 TransMonEE (only for 2011) Perinatal Situation in Kosovo 2012, MoH TransMonEE (only for 2012) DHS 2009 MDG Goal 6 69. p.30 76.5 Calculated Population Estimation 20112061, KAS 70 p.10 14.4 Calculated 10.5 7.2 7.2 16.2 79% < 1% general population <5% key population at risk (MoH) < 1% general population <5% key population at risk (MoH) < 1% general population <5% key population at risk (MoH) < 1% general population <5% key population at risk (MoH) 43.31 15% among married women 15-49 years MDG Goal 6 MoH 1.2/100,000 1.0/100,000 0.9/100,000 1.0/100,000 Not yet available for Y2013 MDG Goal 6 TransMonEE (only number of people registered for 2012) 43 per 100,000 people cases registered Treatment Success-90% 44 per 100,000 people cases registered Treatment Success91% 40 per 100,000 people cases registered Treatment Success-91% 53 per 100,000 people cases registered 51 per 100,000 people cases registered MDG Goal 3 Education Indicators, MEST, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 0.92 (primary and lower secondary) 0.80 (Upper secondary) (E.D, MEST, 0.93 (primary and lower secondary) 0.83 (Upper secondary) (E.D, MEST, p.29) 0.97 (primary and lower secondary) 0.85 (Upper secondary) (E.D, MEST, 15 p.29) Labour force participation rate, female-male ratio (Ratio of female to male shares) Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector Shares in parliament, female-male ratio Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament Environmental Sustainability Proportion of land area covered by forest LFS 2012, 2009 p.29) 28.8% female compared to 67.5% male p.5 (LFS, 2009, p.5) 17.8% female participation in labor force compared to 55.4% of male p.22 (LFS, 2012, p.5) MDG Goal 3 MDG Goal 3 MDG Goal 7 Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area MGD Goal 7 Energy use (kg oil equivalent) per $1 GDP (PPP) Carbon dioxide emissions per capita and consumption of ozone-depleting CFCs (ODP tons) Proportion of population using solid fuels Proportion of population with MGD Goal 7 MGD Goal 7 33% MAFRD, Forestry Statistics, KAS 2012 (KAS website) 33% 33% 33% 33% 44% Decrease of 1% of land areas covered with forest (approximately 4,000 ha) 99 protected areas which cover 118,505 ha (11.4% of territory of KS Decrease of 1% of land areas covered with forest (approximately 4,000 ha) 41% Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Report on State of Environment, 2011,12 Climate Change Framework Strategy (CCFS) for Kosovo 5.7 t CO2 MGD Goal 7 MGD Goal 7 Kosovo Census Atlas 2011 69.7% of households have 16 sustainable access to an improved water source, urban and rural Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation, urban and rural Proportion of households with access to secure tenure MGD Goal 7 Socio-economic data (Census, 2011, KAS) MGD Goal 7 Population Population, total both sexes (thousands) KAS, Census results Population Estimation 2011-2061, (medium version) KAS, Census results Population, urban (%) (% of population) Population growth rate IT Possession of fixed phone, internet and PC access to piped water from public supply system 71% of households have access to sanitation system (flush toilet through public and private) (p.18) 1,780,021 1,793,745 1,805,853 38% are urban (excluding three northern area) KAS, Census results Kosovo MDG Report target 16 Household budget survey, 2012, (p.26) Living conditions, Census (KAS) p.16 66 % computer 60% internet (HBS, 2012, p.26) 21% have fixed phone (L.C, 2012, p.16) 17 18 References: Government of Kosovo, Office of the Prime Minister, Strategy for the Integration of Roma, Ashkali and Egyptian Communities in the Republic of Kosovo (2009 -2015) Kosovo Agency for Statistics (KAS), National Accounts, Gross Dometic Product by expenditure approach 2004-2012, 2013 Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS), Consumption Poverty in Kosovo, in 2012, 2013 KAS, Results of the Kosovo 2012 Labour Force Survey, 2013 KAS, Kosovo Census Atlas, 2011 KAS, Kosovo Population and Housing Census 2011 KAS & UNDP, Study on Remmitances in Kosovo, 2013 International Labour Organisation, Wage and Skills Survey of the (March 2006) International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report for Kosovo,No. 13/379, 2013 MEST, Kosovo Education Indicators, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12, 2013 Ministrie e Shendetesise, Statistikat Shendetesore per Nenet dhe Femijet, 2012 Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Report on State of Environment (2011-2012) Ministry of Envi ronment and Spat ial Planning, Climate Change Framework Strategy (CCFS) for Kosovo Ministry of Culture, Youth and Sport, The Kosovo Youth strategy (2013-2017) Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, Strategy for the Integration of Roma, Ashkali and Egyptian Communities (200-2017) ORGUT Consulting AB, Country Gender Profile for Kosovo, 2014 School of Business, Economics and Law University of Gothenburg, Kosovo Environment and Climate Analysis UNDP: Kosovo Human Development Reports, 2012 World Bank, Kosovo Country Environmental Analysis World Bank, Youth in Jeopardy: Being Young, Unemployed and Poor in Kosovo, 2008 19