Download Resources consumption forecasting and efficiency

Resources consumption forecasting and
efficiency in South East Europe: the RESEEties experience
Christos Nakos ([email protected])
With the kind contribution of :
Vasils Papandreou, Stravroula Papagianni
Centre for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES), Greece
Dr Monica Salvia, Dr Senatro di Leo, Dr Filomena Pietrapertosa
Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council of Italy
Hrvoje Maras, Velimir ŠEGON, Vesna Kolega
North-West Croatia Regional Energy Agency, Croatia
Sashe Panevski, Zoja Tarevska
Macedonian Center for Energy Efficiency, FYROM
6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and
Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
Outline
1. The background framework
2. The role of the cities
3. The need for models and tools
4. The RE-SEEties Project
6th
Christos Nakos,
International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
Resource Efficiency
Resource Efficiency aims at producing more value while using less material
and adopting different consumption patterns.
EC Roadmap to Resource Efficient Europe sets key priorities to direct the
European economy towards sustainability by 2050
The main aspects that should be managed involve:
changes in consumption aspects,
 Further promotion of energy efficiency,
 the use of waste as a resource,
 resource efficiency through innovation,
 use of economic tools, such as elimination of inefficient subsidies and correct price
setting.
Christos Nakos
6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
The Energy Roadmap 2050
The European Union in the Energy Roadmap 2050, is committed to
reducing its GHG emissions to 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050.
thanks to increased innovation and investment in clean technologies
and low- or zero-carbon energy.
A low-carbon economy would have a much greater need for renewable
sources of energy, energy-efficient building materials, hybrid and
electric cars, 'smart grid' equipment, low-carbon power generation and
carbon capture and storage technologies.
Energy efficiency will be a key driver of the transition. By moving to a
low-carbon society, the EU could be using around 30% less energy in
2050 than in 2005. Households and businesses would enjoy more secure
and efficient energy services.
More locally produced energy would be used, mostly from renewable
sources.
6th
Christos Nakos
International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
The urban dimension in climate change
Environmental problems cannot be spatially isolated and should not be
dealt with solely in distinct policymaking levels
Through globalization process national capacities have been reallocated to
transnational and regional levels
Cities are considered as the key growth engines and as centers of
economic, political and social innovation
 They can be strategic partners with business through PPP
 Civil society and NGOs are quite more active in the city level
 They hide a creative potential which should be enabled by policy instruments on the national level
Cities are emerging as the less contradictory platform to implement
effective plans and strategies regarding climate change mitigation and
adaptation in accordance with national objectives and international
commitments.
Christos Nakos
6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and
Climate Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
Initiatives at local scale
The EU and national challenges on climate and energy issues have been acknowledged by
local authorities, committing themselves to improve the quality of life of the people living
in their towns through sustainable urban development.
Many initiatives are being carried out in this directions at European level, among which:
 Energy Cities , the European Association of local authorities promoting energy efficiency,
renewable energy and distributed generation;
 CONCERTO, the initiative launched by the EC to support local communities in developing and
demonstrating concrete strategies and actions that are both sustainable and highly energy
efficient,
 Covenant of Mayors, a commitment by signatory towns and cities to go beyond the objectives of
EU energy policy in terms of reduction in CO2 emissions through enhanced energy efficiency and
cleaner energy production and use,
 Smart Cities initiatives aimed to demonstrate that the citizens’ quality of life and local economies
can be improved through investments in energy efficiency and reduction of carbon emissions.
6th
Christos Nakos
International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
Smart city initiatives
Making cities smarter and more competitive is one of the major EU
challenges.
Smart City initiatives have arisen Europe-wide to help cities to start planning
their future in a new way: adopting a comprehensive multi-sector approach
and accelerating innovation to become more sustainable and resilient
Public- Private-Partnership in “Energy Efficiency in Buildings” (E2B)
SET-Plan European Industrial Initiative (EII) “SMART CITIES & COMMUNITIES”
Flagship Initiative “Innovation Union” - European Innovation Partnerships (EIP) “SMART CITIES”
European Energy Research Alliance (EERA) Joint Programme (JP) on SMART CITIES
Joint Programming Initiative “Urban Europe”
European Strategic Transport Technology Plan
Future Internet Public-Private Partnership
Green Digital Charter
6th
Christos Nakos
International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
Energy Forecasting
appropriate long term planning methods and tools are necessary for achieving and preserving resource
efficiency in the optimum way in terms of cost and benefits
In the city level the focus will be on:
 1. Buildings 2. Transportation 3. Utilities
The main energy demand drivers are:
 1. Demographics 2. Building Stock and expansion planning 3. Income, expenditure and energy
commodity prices 4. City’s economic structure 5.Environmental parameters
There are two basic methods for Energy forecasting
 Analysis of statistical data
 Energy Systems Analysis
Analysis of statistical data
 Simple forecasting techniques (e.g. elasticity based demand projection)
 Econometric techniques
Statistical data analysis requires available data from past years
Econometric analysis cannot capture structural changes in the energy system
6th
Christos Nakos
International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
Energy System Analysis
A well established and widely used method for projecting energy demand is the
use of energy system analysis models.
Energy System models are classified according to :
 Mathematical Background
 Simulation models
 Optimization models
 Technology Representation
 Top – Down
 Bottom-Up
 I/O
 Hybrid I/O
 For urban energy systems analysis, sectorial (e.g. residential heat) bottom up
models combined with simple methods of forecasting are mostly used mainly
due to lack of resources, data and prioritization.
6th
Christos Nakos
International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
Waste Forecasting
MSW forecasting is needed to:
 quantify the waste potentials of the main materials -- such as organic material, paper
and cardboard, plastics and compounds, glass or metals
 achieve accurate and reliable waste information in relation to:
MSW collection system
Land demand for landfilling waste
Incinerators capacity evaluation
Little is known about how to estimate the quantity of future MSW streams
The majority of national or regional Waste Management Plans (WMPs) do not include
forecasts regarding MSW generation and treatment capacity.
The choice of the method for forecasting MSW usually depends on the following criteria:
Amount and quality of available data (e.g. generation of waste, social-economic
indicators)
Type of the data (e.g. continuous or random data)
Relationships of various parameters of waste generation and social-economic
indicators
Expected changes in the field of waste management.
Quantitative vs Qualitative methods
6th
Christos Nakos
International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
The RE-SEEties project
Towards resource efficient urban communities in SEE
South East Europe Transnational Cooperation Program - 4th
(final) call for proposals
Priority Axis: Protection and improvement of the
environment
Area of intervention: Promote energy & resource efficiency
Project duration: 01/10/2012 – 30/09/2014 (24 months)
Budget: 2,249,103.66 EUR
Christos Nakos
6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
RE-SEEties – The scope
Europe is facing problems of excessive energy consumption and
uncontrolled waste production.
These trends are expected to increase in the future.
In South East Europe (SEE), these problems are manifested also through
resource inefficiency as well as lack of coordination and a
wareness regarding how to use resources more consciously.
There is an urgent need to address these challenges, which requires
more innovative approaches on the part of governments and
citizens alike.
RE-SEEties is a project with the long-term vision of turning South East
European cities into more resource efficient urban communities.
Christos Nakos
6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
RE-SEEties – Objectives
Improve integrated strategic planning and policy-making in the fields of energy
efficiency, renewable energy and waste valorisation
The purpose is to change consumption patterns and support changing demands
with innovative solutions, tools and incentives.
Sub – Objectives
 FORECAST– analysis of current and future energy use and waste production at municipality
level, to develop the baseline data for strategic planning.
TECHNOLOGY – application of sustainable energy and waste technologies in the urban
context.
 CHANGING BEHAVIOUR – addressing various target groups related to resource efficiency,
offering solutions and alternatives for waste and energy.
 POLICY – development of innovative policy-making tools, practices and incentives for
resource efficiency.
 SYNTHESIS – synthesis of project findings in the form of an integrated toolkit for SEE
municipalities, to help them become resource efficient urban communities.
 ENDORSEMENT – ensuring wider uptake of project results in SEE and EU, and endorsement
at all policy-making levels.
Christos Nakos
6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
RE-SEEties – The methodology
FOCUS ON CITY LEADERSHIP
City leaderships have a major role to play in influencing and
incentivizing behavior changing at local and regional levels.
Municipal actors are the core focus of the RE-SEEties project.
Eight SEE cities and regions were selected to design and implement
these new resource efficiency strategies .
These cities and regions are supported by a consortium of professional
institutions having expertise and dissemination power in the
field
Christos Nakos
6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
RE-SEEties – The methodology
European overview, state-of-art regarding methodologies, technologies,
planning processes going parallel with resources forecasting at local
level
Development and adaptation of an initial methodological framework with
criteria for assessment
Strategy building process
City case study profiles
Elaboration process with peer reviews
Interim results assessed against the initially set up criteria for assessment.
Finalisation of the criteria
Integrated SEE methodological toolkit towards resource efficiency.
Conversion of project partner cases into local strategies and action plans
(measures, budgetary forecasts and policy recommendations).
Christos Nakos
6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
RE-SEEties – The partners
Project partners :
Associated Strategic Partners:
 The Local Government of Budapest District 18, Hungary
 Municipality of Aigaleo, Greece
 Municipality of Potenza, Italy
 City of Nitra, Slovakia
 City of Skopje, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,
 Harghita County Council, Romania
 City Municipality Ptuj, Slovenia
 City of Ivanic-Grad, Croatia
 Centre Renewable Energy Sources and Saving, Greece
 National Research Council of Italy - Institute of
Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, Italy
 Energiaklub Climate Policy Institute and Applied
Communications, Hungary
 Harghita County Council, Romania,
 Association of Towns and Communities of Slovakia,
Slovakia
 Energy Centre Bratislava, Slovakia
 City Municipality Ptuj, Slovenia
 City of Ivanic-Grad, Croatia
Observer Partners:
 ZELS - Association of Local Self Government of
Republic of Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia
 Province of Potenza, Italy
 ICLEI - European Secretariat GmbH, Germany
 Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate
Change, Greece
 Institute of Sociology at Hungarian Academy of
Sciences, Hungary
Christos Nakos
6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
RE-SEEties – WPs structure
Workpackage 1: Transnational project and financial management – led
by the LP (HU)
Workpackage 2: Communication activities – led by PP5 Energiaklub (HU)
Workpackage 3: Resources consumption forecast at municipality level –
led by CRES (GR)
Workpackage 4: Strategies to enhance integrated municipality strategy
and planning competences – led by CNR-IMAA (IT)
Workpackage 5: Strategy building process through peer reviews – led by
REGEA (HR)
Workpackage 6: Embedding project results into national and EU policy
frameworks – led by the LP (HU)
Christos Nakos
6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
The RE-SEEties project: Towards resource
efficient urban communities in SEE
Christos Nakos ([email protected])
Centre for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES)
Thank you for your
kind attention
6th
Christos Nakos
International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate
Change, Transnational Expert workshop
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece