Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Logistics and Competitiveness in Central America UK-Central America Business Conference Sebastian Nieto Parra OECD Development Centre London, 5 March 2014 Central American Business Council Perspectivas económicas de América Latina Contents 1 Competitiveness and Productivity in Central America 2 Policies to boost logistics in Central America La contribución de la región al proceso de reequilibrio la riqueza The region’s contribution to shifting wealth is relatively de modest es relativamente modesta Contribution to global GDP (1990-2011) (in percentages) 1990-1995 2% 1995-2000 Advanced economies 6% 5% 18% 1% 8% Emerging Asia 4% 8% 50% 59% 20% Latin America 19% 3% 3% 10% 9% 6% 7% 46% 7% Middle East and North Africa 2005-2012 2000-2005 32% Sub-Saharan Africa 9% Rest of the world 27% 41% 3 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data and regional aggregates from IMF (World Economic Outlook). The structure of Central American economies differs in comparison with Una transformación estructural impedida South American economies: different policies to boost productivity Net barter terms of trade (2000 = 100) South America Central America 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 An structural transformation: challenges remain for Unaimpeded transformación estructural impedida Central American countries Productive capacities indicator (1990 and 2009) 1990 2009 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 Note: Productive capabilities index. Higher values in the variable let a country produce a more sophisticated range of goods. At any given moment, the capacity variable depends on the level of connectivity of the network of products, which is why it is normalised. Thus a value equal to 0 implies capability levels equal to the worldwide average. A value of 1 (-1) indicates capabilities one standard deviation above (below) that average. 5 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from COMTRADE and Feenstra, R. C., R. E. Lipsey, H. Deng, A. C. Ma y H. Mo (2005), “World Trade Flows: 1962-2000”, NBER Working Paper Nº 11040. While in Asia the productivity gap has decreased, it has expanded in most Central American countries Changes in productivity gaps between selected Asian and Latin American countries and the United States (1980-2011) (as percentages, annual growth rates in GDP per worker) Asia Central America Other Latin American countries 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 -3 -3.5 -4 Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank,“World Development Indicators” and CEPALSTAT data. 6 Total Factor Productivity: signs of improvements should be permanent Total factor productivity index, 1960 = 100 Costa Rica Panamá 140 260 130 240 120 220 200 110 180 100 160 90 100 60 80 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 120 70 Source: Calculations based on Penn World Tables 7 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 140 80 Perspectivas económicas de América Latina Latin American Economic Outlook 2014 1 Competitiveness and Productivity in Central America 2 Policies to boost logistics in Latin America Improved logistics performance could boost labor productivity in Latin America by 35% Logistics and economic performance: Partial correlations (Values, 2012) OECD Latin America Other countries Labour productivity not explained by GDP per capita 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 ARG 0 VEN CRI DOM JAM -10000 MEX URY PER GTM ECU -20000 CHL BRA COL BOL -30000 -40000 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 Logistics performance not explained by GDP per capita Source: Authors’ work based on The Conference Board Total Economy Database, World Bank (LPI), Comtrade. 9 1.5 The logistics gap remains high, especially due to the poor performance of transport infrastructure Logistics performance gap to the best-performing OECD country (2012) OECD LAC7 LAC OECD country with lowest GDP per capita in 1990 2 Policy control areas 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 LPI Infrastructure Customs Source: Based on World Bank data (Logistics Performance Index). 10 Logistics quality Tracking and tracing Timeliness International shipments However, there is variation in logistics performance within the region Logistics performance gap to the best-performing OECD country (2012) Customs Infrastructure 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 11 Source: Based on World Bank data (Logistics Performance Index). Logistics quality LPI The Latin American production structure implies that a high proportion of exports are sensitive to logistics Time-sensitive, logistics-intensive exports (2010) (% of total exports) Logistics-intensive Time-sensitive 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Note: Logistics-intensive sectors include mining, forestry and logging, wood manufacturing, paper publishing and printing. Time-sensitive sectors include agriculture, fisheries, food and drink manufacturing, clothing and horticulture. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) consists of 18 countries. 12 Source: UN COMTRADE. To boost trade, it is essential to reduce transportation costs Ratio of freight costs to tariffs (2012) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 13 Source: Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The logistics lag can affect the development of international trade. Example: customs formalities Number of days needed to clear direct exports through customs (2011) Average Manufacturing sector 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 na. 0 14 Note: Data not available for the manufacturing industry in Panama. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) consists of 27 countries. Source: World Bank Enterprise Survey. The use of ICTs: Contribute to improved logistics performance Access to technology and logistics performance: Partial correlations (2012) OECD Other countries Latin America Logistics performance not explained by GDP per capita 1.5 1 0.5 ARG 0 BRA MEX URY CHL COL ECU BOL PER GTM CRI -0.5 DOM VEN JAM -1 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 Technology availability not explained by GDP per capita 15 Source: World Bank (Logistics Performance Index) and World Economic Forum (Global Competitiveness Index), 2012. 1.5 2 Improvements in infrastructure are essential for logistical development 1. More and better investment 2. Implementation of appropriate regulations and a better institutional framework for the planning phase of the policy process 3. Expansion of intermodal connectivity and development of transportation modes other than road 4. Finding appropriate mechanisms to maximize private investment in infrastructure 16 However, reducing the infrastructure gap takes time, and in the short term “soft” solutions can be found Maximizing the infrastructure of existing transport: 1. Greater coordination between agents involved in logistics and a move toward a comprehensive policy. 2. Simplification of customs procedures. 3. Promotion of competition in the transport sector. 4. Appropriate use of ICTs to simplify procedures and facilitate the tracking and delivery of goods. 17 Thank you! www.oecd.org/dev