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Stay abreast of important economic and market developments and capitalize on investment opportunities with our insightful research and innovative thinking. Research CONFIDENTIAL November 2016 Overview 1 Our Research teams are a leading voice on what matters and widely recognized for the breadth and quality of their work. • Our renowned team of economists, analysts and strategists helps clients understand market trends, stay on top of investment opportunities and generate alpha Economics Equity Research • A rich combination of fundamental, quantitative and technical analysis lets you see the market from different angles to identify important developments at the macro, sector, company and asset-class level to drive timely and profitable investment ideas Macro Strategy Portfolio Strategy & Quantitative Research • • • • CONFIDENTIAL Thorough and diligent research Insightful commentary Provocative thinking Extensive client interaction Technical Analysis Economics 2 Benefit from our Economics Group’s long and well-earned reputation for being ahead of the curve. • The team produces analysis and timely forecasts of trends in the North American economy, the political environment and financial markets • Economists are recognized for their insights on critical market issues and the implications for stock values, currencies and interest rates, and are highly ranked by institutional investors in the Canadian financial services industry • In-depth analytic publications, conferences, phone calls and one-on-one meetings keep clients up to date on what is happening today ― and likely to happen in the future • Extensive analysis available on the Economics website includes: − Economic Flashes − The Week Ahead − Monthly FX Outlook − Economic Insights − Economics Forecast − TSX Earnings Watch − Federal/Provincial Budget Briefs Avery Shenfeld is Managing Director and Chief Economist, CIBC Capital Markets. Is widely recognized as one of Canada’s leading economists for his perceptive analysis and insight on economic developments and their implications for financial markets. • A repeat winner of the Dow Jones Market Watch forecasting award • Has multiple awards forecast accuracy on the U.S. and Canadian economies by Bloomberg Markets − Employment Quality Index ― Canada − Household Credit Analysis − Consumer Watch ― Canada − The Bankruptcy Report − Metro Monitor − Small Business Economic Activity − Commodities Outlook • TopGun Analyst – Economics1 1 Ranked #1 according to the Brendan Wood International, Worldwide Equity Capital Markets Performance – Canadian Equities 2016 Report CONFIDENTIAL Equity Research 3 See opportunities across the market capitalization spectrum for all key sectors of the economy. • Our Equity Research team covers over 335 companies that represents 95.4% of the market capitalization of the S&P/TSX Composite • It has consistently been recognized as a top research source for its breadth of coverage, industry knowledge and quality of work Over 28 Equity Analysts • Insightful reports, complemented by extensive corporate and analyst meetings, help keep clients on top of stock market activity and the outlook for different industries and companies • A website devoted to Equity Research offers interactive performance comparison charts, industry composite and commodities tables and powerful search tools Coverage Market Capitalization Broad and Deep Analysis Coverage for more than 335 companies Representing 95.4% of market capitalization of the S&P/TSX Composite Offering broad and deep analysis across key verticals “TopGun” Analysts ranked #1, #2, or #3 in their sectors: • Avery Shenfeld, #1 for Economics1 • Jacob Bout, #1 for Agriculture, Chemicals & Fertilizers1 • Paul Holden,#2 for Diversified Financials1 • Robert Sedran, #2 for Banks1 • Paul Lechem, #2 for Utilities1 • Alex Avery, #3 for Real Estate, REITS & Hospitalities1 • Bob Bek, #3 for Telecom1 1 Brendan Wood International, Worldwide Equity Capital Markets Performance — Canadian Equities 2016 Report. CONFIDENTIAL Macro Strategy 4 Gain a broad, cross-asset class perspective on strategic and tactical investment and trade ideas. • Strategists provide topical research focused on fundamentals, valuation and trade ideas across foreign exchange, interest rates, commodities and sovereign and corporate credit: • Topical research includes: − Global Positioning Strategies − Focus on Canada − FX: Underlying themes, issues and trends affecting Asian, Latin American and G10 currencies − Cross-asset observations − Rates: Fundamental, technical and quantitative analysis on both domestic and global rates in support of various executable trade ideas − Investor conference calls − Commodities: Market views, price forecasts and analysis of global supply / demand fundamentals for the energy sector − Dedicated website for Macro Strategy − LATAM: Factors impacting the sovereign credit and currencies of selected Latin American countries − Government credit: Factors impacting the economic, fiscal and financial performance of Canada at federal, provincial and municipal levels − Corporate credit: Valuation of Canadian credits in the context of global credit markets − Portfolio strategy: “Target Cash Flow Portfolios” providing a set of investible model portfolios, supported by our credit research and available to clients of CIBC Wood Gundy CONFIDENTIAL − Comprehensive asset-specific research − One-on-one investor meetings − Voice of CIBC (media) Portfolio Strategy & Quantitative Research 5 Help generate alpha with a highly-mathematical and rigorously-tested approach to investment analysis. • Our Portfolio Strategy & Quantitative Research team has a proven track record for outperforming the market • Global strategy work sets the background by looking at what’s driving major economies and capital markets around the world • Asset mix models and an understanding of economic history are then used to predict critically important factors affecting capital markets Our powerful Scenario Analysis System (SAS) helps illustrate the implications of our asset mix recommendations and the significance of different economic scenarios for your business. Our Global Portfolio System (GPS) facilitates an understanding of the global economy and provides a global context for local stock decision making enabling you to readily model and test different portfolios. This includes first- and second-year returns for seven different investor profiles, including growth, income and growth, capital preservation and global opportunity. GPS provides detailed analysis of 5,000 companies in 50 countries offering nearly instantaneous stock selection that considers approximately 140 different criteria for every stock. CONFIDENTIAL Technical Analysis 6 Identify trending indicators that can help predict price movements with a proprietary model for assessing markets. • Looking at stocks, currencies, commodities, sectors and indices, the central pieces of the team’s work include three biweekly reports: − The TrendSpotting Matrix: Based on the assumption that prices move in trends and trends tend to persist, this capability evaluates 12 key technical factors to create a picture of market action and identify if there is a trending environment underway − Breadth Decomposition Analysis: This work scores all 10 Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors in the TSX and S&P 500 indices to identify sectors that demonstrate collective upside or downside behavior, highlighting thematic characteristics that may be evolving in different sectors CONFIDENTIAL − A Closer Look: This provides a deep dive into technical internals of the broader indices for a top-down analysis. It explores metrics that are associated with market peaks and troughs — sentiment, volume, volatility, asset correlation and metric deviation from norm We also go beyond simpler technical methodologies with ratio analysis, pair trading to help identify possible buying and selling situations