Download Economics - CIBC World Markets

Stay abreast of important economic and market
developments and capitalize on investment
opportunities with our insightful research and
innovative thinking.
Research
CONFIDENTIAL
November 2016
Overview
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Our Research teams are a leading voice on what matters and widely recognized
for the breadth and quality of their work.
• Our renowned team of economists, analysts and strategists
helps clients understand market trends, stay on top of
investment opportunities and generate alpha
Economics
Equity Research
• A rich combination of fundamental, quantitative and technical
analysis lets you see the market from different angles to
identify important developments at the macro, sector,
company and asset-class level to drive timely and profitable
investment ideas
Macro Strategy
Portfolio Strategy &
Quantitative Research
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Thorough and diligent research
Insightful commentary
Provocative thinking
Extensive client interaction
Technical Analysis
Economics
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Benefit from our Economics Group’s long and well-earned reputation for being
ahead of the curve.
• The team produces analysis and timely forecasts of trends in
the North American economy, the political environment and
financial markets
• Economists are recognized for their insights on critical market
issues and the implications for stock values, currencies and
interest rates, and are highly ranked by institutional investors
in the Canadian financial services industry
• In-depth analytic publications, conferences, phone calls and
one-on-one meetings keep clients up to date on what is
happening today ― and likely to happen in the future
• Extensive analysis available on the Economics website
includes:
− Economic Flashes
− The Week Ahead
− Monthly FX Outlook
− Economic Insights
− Economics Forecast
− TSX Earnings Watch
− Federal/Provincial Budget Briefs
Avery Shenfeld is Managing Director and Chief
Economist, CIBC Capital Markets. Is widely recognized
as one of Canada’s leading economists for his
perceptive analysis and insight on economic
developments and their implications for financial
markets.
• A repeat winner of the Dow Jones Market Watch
forecasting award
• Has multiple awards forecast accuracy on the U.S.
and Canadian economies by Bloomberg Markets
− Employment Quality Index ― Canada
− Household Credit Analysis
− Consumer Watch ― Canada
− The Bankruptcy Report
− Metro Monitor
− Small Business Economic Activity
− Commodities Outlook
• TopGun Analyst – Economics1
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Ranked #1 according to the Brendan Wood International, Worldwide Equity Capital Markets Performance – Canadian Equities 2016 Report
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Equity Research
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See opportunities across the market capitalization spectrum for all key sectors
of the economy.
• Our Equity Research team covers over 335 companies that
represents 95.4% of the market capitalization of the
S&P/TSX Composite
• It has consistently been recognized as a top research source
for its breadth of coverage, industry knowledge and quality of
work
Over 28 Equity
Analysts
• Insightful reports, complemented by extensive corporate and
analyst meetings, help keep clients on top of stock market
activity and the outlook for different industries and
companies
• A website devoted to Equity Research offers interactive
performance comparison charts, industry composite and
commodities tables and powerful search tools
Coverage
Market Capitalization
Broad and Deep Analysis
Coverage for
more than
335 companies
Representing 95.4% of
market capitalization of
the S&P/TSX Composite
Offering broad and deep
analysis across key verticals
“TopGun” Analysts ranked #1, #2, or #3 in their sectors:
• Avery Shenfeld, #1 for Economics1
• Jacob Bout, #1 for Agriculture, Chemicals & Fertilizers1
• Paul Holden,#2 for Diversified Financials1
• Robert Sedran, #2 for Banks1
• Paul Lechem, #2 for Utilities1
• Alex Avery, #3 for Real Estate, REITS & Hospitalities1
• Bob Bek, #3 for Telecom1
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Brendan Wood International, Worldwide Equity Capital Markets Performance — Canadian Equities 2016 Report.
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Macro Strategy
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Gain a broad, cross-asset class perspective on strategic and tactical investment
and trade ideas.
• Strategists provide topical research focused on
fundamentals, valuation and trade ideas across foreign
exchange, interest rates, commodities and sovereign and
corporate credit:
• Topical research includes:
− Global Positioning Strategies
− Focus on Canada
− FX: Underlying themes, issues and trends affecting Asian,
Latin American and G10 currencies
− Cross-asset observations
− Rates: Fundamental, technical and quantitative analysis on
both domestic and global rates in support of various
executable trade ideas
− Investor conference calls
− Commodities: Market views, price forecasts and analysis of
global supply / demand fundamentals for the energy sector
− Dedicated website for Macro Strategy
− LATAM: Factors impacting the sovereign credit and
currencies of selected Latin American countries
− Government credit: Factors impacting the economic,
fiscal and financial performance of Canada at federal,
provincial and municipal levels
− Corporate credit: Valuation of Canadian credits in the
context of global credit markets
− Portfolio strategy: “Target Cash Flow Portfolios” providing
a set of investible model portfolios, supported by our
credit research and available to clients of CIBC Wood
Gundy
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− Comprehensive asset-specific research
− One-on-one investor meetings
− Voice of CIBC (media)
Portfolio Strategy & Quantitative Research
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Help generate alpha with a highly-mathematical and rigorously-tested approach
to investment analysis.
• Our Portfolio Strategy & Quantitative Research team has a
proven track record for outperforming the market
• Global strategy work sets the background by looking at what’s
driving major economies and capital markets around the
world
• Asset mix models and an understanding of economic history
are then used to predict critically important factors affecting
capital markets
Our powerful Scenario Analysis System (SAS) helps
illustrate the implications of our asset mix
recommendations and the significance of different
economic scenarios for your business.
Our Global Portfolio System (GPS) facilitates an
understanding of the global economy and provides a
global context for local stock decision making enabling
you to readily model and test different portfolios.
This includes first- and second-year returns for seven
different investor profiles, including growth, income
and growth, capital preservation and global
opportunity.
GPS provides detailed analysis of 5,000 companies in 50
countries offering nearly instantaneous stock selection
that considers approximately 140 different criteria for
every stock.
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Technical Analysis
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Identify trending indicators that can help predict price movements with a
proprietary model for assessing markets.
• Looking at stocks, currencies, commodities, sectors and
indices, the central pieces of the team’s work include three
biweekly reports:
− The TrendSpotting Matrix: Based on the assumption that
prices move in trends and trends tend to persist, this
capability evaluates 12 key technical factors to create a
picture of market action and identify if there is a trending
environment underway
− Breadth Decomposition Analysis: This work scores all 10
Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors in the
TSX and S&P 500 indices to identify sectors that
demonstrate collective upside or downside behavior,
highlighting thematic characteristics that may be evolving
in different sectors
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− A Closer Look: This provides a deep dive into technical
internals of the broader indices for a top-down analysis. It
explores metrics that are associated with market peaks and
troughs — sentiment, volume, volatility, asset correlation
and metric deviation from norm
We also go beyond simpler technical methodologies
with ratio analysis, pair trading to help identify possible
buying and selling situations