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Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India and Implications for Water Availability Issues K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, Boulder K. Rupa Kumar, N.R. Deshpande, V. Prasanna and S.K. Patwardhan Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India Indian Summer Monsoon Flow Mean Rainfall Patterns Data Source: CMAP (1979-2000) Summer Monsoon (mm/season) Annual (mm/year) Mean Annual Cycle of All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall 350 Rainfall (mm/month) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001) (Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set) Agriculture Facts India lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of them Roughly 65% of the population is rural India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92 was about 1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this period Agriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor force Agriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDP In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4th in the world About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agriculture Area under crop (mn. hec) Irrigated area under crop (mn. hec.) Irrigated area as % of total area under crops 121 45 37 Rice 43 19 45 Wheat 23 19 84 Nonfoodgrains 61 19 31 Groundnut 9 2 20 Cotton 7 3 33 Sugarcane 4 3 86 183 64 35 IRRIGATION Crop Foodgrains Total Total Foodgrain Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall India’s Water Situation Proposed River Linkages Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over the Indian region Potential Impacts: • Water Resources • Agriculture • Sea Level Rise and many more sectors… Development of Future Scenarios of Rainfall & Temperature over India • IS92a (8 Coupled Atmos.-Ocean GCMs) • SRES A2 (5 AOGCMs) • SRES B2 (5 AOGCMs) Simulations are generally available for about 200 years (~1870s till 2100) IPCC 2001 climate change scenarios A1: A world of rapid economic growth and rapid introductions of new and more efficient technologies A2: A very heterogeneous world with an emphasis on family values and local traditions B1: A world of ‘dematerialization’ and introduction of clean technologies B2: A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability 5 state-of-the-art climate models run until 2100 with various emission scenarios AOGCM simulations used from IPCC-DDC Using greenhouse gas forced (following IS92A, SRES (A2/B2) scenarios) simulations of 8 different coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models, the rainfall and temperature scenarios for 2021-40; 2041-60; 2061-80; 2081-2100 compared to the baseline period of 1961-90 are generated for the Indian region. The models used are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Canadian Center for Climate modeling (CCC) model. Center for Climate Research studies (CCSR) model. Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) model. Deutsches Klima Rechen Zentrum (DKRZ) model. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model. Hadley Centered model.(HadCM3) Max-planck Institute(MPI) model. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model. Indian Summer Monsoon Patterns as simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs Annual Cycles of All-India mean rainfall in the control simulations of coupled AOGCMs Annual Surface Air Temperature Patterns over India simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs AOGCM Scenarios of allIndia summer monsoon rainfall and mean annual surface temperature AOGCM Projected change in summer monsoon rainfall, relative to 1961-90 2041-60 2061-80 AOGCM Projected change in mean annual surface air temperature, relative to 1961-90 2041-60 2061-80 Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall Variability (IS92a) High-resolution Climate Change Scenarios using Regional Climate Model (HadRM2/HadRM3) GCMs to Regional Adaptive Responses : Modelling Path The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models (HadRM2/HadRM3H/PRECIS) ¥ High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and seasurface boundaries by output from HadCM ¥ ¥ ¥ ¥ Formulation identical to HadAM Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° One-way nesting Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region ¥ HadRM3H as well as PRECIS installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development at an advanced stage by using PRECIS at IITM Model Orography GCM RCM HadRM2 scenarios ¥ Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60) ¥ Each experiment has 20 years data ¥ Monthly and Daily data on various parameters ¥ Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid spacing ¥ Spatial means for administrative units (states) Indian Summer Monsoon Simulations by HadRM2 All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall 10 Observed CTL GHG (2041-60) 9 8 Rainfall (mm/day) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Months Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change scenarios : HadRM2 50 40 Rainfall Change (% of CTL) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL Indian Annual Surface Temperature Simulations by HadRM2 State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change Scenarios : HadRM2 6 Temperature Change (C) 5 4 3 2 1 0 JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL Simulation of Monsoon Depressions/Cyclonic Storms in HadRM2 and Likely Future Changes • Changes in Monsoon Depression/Cyclonic Storm Tracks in GHG Scenarios. • Frequency of Depressions/Cyclones. • Intensity of Storms. Criteria adopted for the identification of cyclonic storms (this includes severe storms and monsoon depressions) Sea level Pressure (SLP) SLP Departure Local Minimum Max. Wind Speed Duration > 15 m/s < -5hPa At least 2 days A typical Monsoon Depression as simulated in the regional model Monsoon Depression Tracks as simulated in HadRM2 control and GHG Experiments Pre and PostMonsoon Cyclonic Storms and likely Changes in GHG Runs Frequency of monthly cyclonic disturbances (Max intensity in m/s) as simulated by HadRM2 for 2041-60 Likely Changes in Extreme Rainfall and TMAX/TMIN Temperatures in India NATCOM Workshop, IIM Ahmedabad, 22.7.2003 HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Rainfall Intensity Change in Annual number of rainy days Change in rainfall per rainy day Impact of Climate Change on the daily Extreme Rainfall (cm) amounts in India Location of Stations Considered in Extreme Temperature Analysis HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Temperature Extremes Change in extreme Maximum Temperature Change in extreme Minimum Temperature River Basins under Study Change in Monthly Rainfall in GHG Scenarios