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National Action Plan for Climate Change Support for the National Water Mission SATLUJ PUNJAB–UPPER CATCHMENTS Surface water resources inflow to Bhakra -major gap in information To yr: 2050 Temperature + 2 degree C –higher in the upper catchment than on plains, may go higher Precipitation and runoff some increase in precipitation, poor accuracy Short term surface water –to 2020 no significant change; increased melt flows from glaciers, reduced melt from snow. Medium to long term from 2020 o insufficient data to confirm trend o gradually effects of increased glacier and snow melts will affect inflows to Bhakra. o Bhakra can to an extent provide a buffer but glacier loss will be significant. Require: glacier mass, snow and glacier melt response assessments SATLUJ PUNJAB –LOWER CATCHMENTS By mid century: + 2 degree C Precipitation:+ 10-15% mainly runoff, limited recharge Evapotranspiration: little change Increased variability of rainfall patterns oGroundwater 45% above sustainable levels oSustainable GW-key to buffer against CC oConjunctive SW and GW management Joga Distributary: Simulated Changes in Groundwater Storage 10000 9500 Groundwater storage (Mm3) 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 Reference 120 day rice Direct seeded rice Reduced losses Rice Area reduced 5500 5000 Year of simulation KHIPRA SUB BASIN MADHYA PRADESH Climate Change: To 2050: Temperature: + 2 degree C Precipitation: + about 15% increase in annual rainfall +23% in monsoon rains some decline in the non monsoon rains. Increased variability of rainfall patterns Present Issues WATER QUANTITY + WATER QUALITY olimited surface water, groundwater is key resource ogroundwater overexploitation in some parts o yield of surface water /groundwater more than requirements, oMost water is lost during rainy season oWQ issues river and tributary streams very heavily polluted and go dry for periods-no base flow CAUVERY DELTA TAMIL NADU Climate Change to 2050: +2 Degrees C No significant change in annual rainfall South west monsoon would reduce by 10% North east monsoon would increase by 1015% Increased variability in rainfall patterns Sea Level rise of 0.3 metres PRESENT ISSUES limited surface water during SW monsoon •erratic, very intense NE monsoon causes flooding. •saline intrusion, low lying land is unable to drain. •groundwater used to supplement surface water -issues of overexploitation and salinity intrusion. •parts of the coast are eroding river mouths suffer from blockages causing problems for fishing and flooding Q: How to plan for climate change? • Need a systematic WR planning process for sub basins. • Strategic Planning to follow IWRM, participative and iterative • Plans must be mainstreamed into departments and districts for implementation • CC. projections presently not adequate to make concrete planning decisions-but can support strategies and general direction. IWRM UNIT SPECIALIST INPUTS TO SUB-BASIN PLANNING -Climate Projections -Hydrological Response at Basin Level to CC -Basin Level Demand Assessment/Water Balance -Trans boundary Consultations -Research Strategic framework plan for three sub basins Satluj Kshipra Cauvery Strengthen agriculture and marketing √ √ √ Conjunctive water management conservation to reduce GW demand √ √ √ Water resources and catchment management and GW recharge √ √ √ Water quality, pollution √ √ Flood and Salinity Management √ Soft coastal protection √ Water supply and sanitation √ Institutional development, regulatory and support measures √ √ √ Reasearch Studies Glaciers & snow, Conjunctive use Conjunctive use Hydrodynamic, GW and coastal modelling Strategic framework plan for India Water Systems CWC Data Management Specialist Inputs to Sub Basin Planning Sub Basin Framework Planning Integration of Sub Basin Plans into Basin Plans Support for Institutional Framework, Capacity building awareness Sub Project Implementation and Investment RBOs √ √ Institutes States Support consultants √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Eight year programme Project Preparation and Design Project Implemenation Phases Project 1 Project 2 Project 3