Download The Indo-Gangetic Plain of South Asia

Climate Change and Food Security
in the Indo-Gangetic Plain
Analysing food system vulnerability
Pramod Joshi
Director
National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research
DPS Road, New Delhi, India
www.ncap.res.in
Quotes on poverty and food insecurity
Poverty (food insecurity) is the worst kind of violence
Mahatma Gandhi
If a free society can not help the many who are poor
and food insecure, it can not save the few who are rich
John F Kennedy
Key IGP climate and other GEC issues,
food security policy priorities
and development goals
Indo-Gangetic Plain
Issues
Key Policy Goals
Example Stakeholders
• Altered monsoon
• Increasing and diversifying
ag production
• Reducing glacier
• State & National ag & env ministries
and snow melt
• Reducing seasonal ag
• National Ag Research Institutes & CGIAR
labour migration
• Reduced ground
• NGOs (NWCF, BUP)
water
• Improved
waterAPN)
• GEC Research Institutes
(GCISC,
management
Indo-Gangetic Plain:
Strong W – E variations
Eastern Region (Zones 4 & 5)
• Low productivity – food deficit
• Poor infrastructure and low inputs of
fertilizer and water
• High risk of flooding
• Chronic poverty
Western Region (Zones 1, 2 & 3)
• High productivity – food surplus
• High investment in infrastructure
• Major use of fertilisers and groundwater for irrigation
• Irrigation real costs very high
Step 1:
Identify set of Case Study sites (Districts)
that IGP heterogeneity
Gujarat, Punjab
Pakistan
• wheat
• high ag inputs & effective institutions
• variable water availability
• changes in snow/glacier melt
• rising GHG emissions
Ruhani Basin, Terai
Nepal
• rice/wheat: low crop yields
• out-migration of labour
• seasonal flooding
• variable water availability
Ludihana, Punjab
India
• rice/wheat
• stagnant productivity growth
• high ag inputs & effective institutions
• variable water availability
• groundwater depletion
• changes in snow/glacier melt
• rising GHG emissions
Vaisahali, Bihar
India
• rice
• low infrastructure & investment
• low income levels
• out migration of labour
• little government policy support
• seasonal flooding
• variable water availability
Greater Faridpur
Bangladesh
• rice
• low income levels
• institutions failing
• drought
• seasonal flooding
• sea level & salt water intrusion
Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.
Step 2:
Use standardised methods to describe food
system determinants in each Case Study
Example from Vaishali District, Bihar for 2 of the 9 food system determinants
Food System
Determinant
Social Value
Key Factor
Characteristics
Trend
Importance
to System
Sensitivity
to GEC
Social
bonding/celebrations
Very strong
Changing
Secondary
Not known
Role of food in kinship
High
Changing
Secondary
Not known
Esteem from agricultural
production/ farmer
identity
Weakening
Decreasing
Primary
Little
Public awareness
regarding hygiene
Low
Improving
Primary
Not known
Presence of pathogens
High
Not known
Primary
Yes
Changes with
seasonality
Some effect on
food quality
Not known
Primary
Yes
Food Safety
What determines the vulnerability of the
food system to climate change?
CLIMATE CHANGE
Change in type, frequency &
magnitude of environmental
threats
Capacity to
cope with
&/or
recover
from GEC
FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY
and VULNERABILITY
SOCIETAL CHANGE
Change in institutions,
resource accessibility,
economic conditions, etc.
Exposure
to GEC
Step 3: Systematically analyse food system
vulnerability to CC in Case Studies
(indicative results : research just started)
Food Security
determinant
(examples)
Nutritional value
(Food Utilisation):
Stress to which
determinant is
increasingly
exposed
Irrigation
potential in
Punjab
Overall
vulnerability
Protein content
depends on
cultivar &
planting date
Low
due to few
improved cultivars
or forecasts
High
due to weak ag and
met extension
services
Insufficient rainfall
Agricultural
income depends
on yields and
adequate market
Moderate
due to some – but
limited – options to
migrate to find offfarm income
Moderate
due to social
constraints on
migration
Reduced river flow
due to changed
glacier melt
Production
depends on
timely irrigation
Low
due to declining
water table and no
water pricing
options
High
due to declining
water table &
flawed institutional
arrangements
Household
incomes in Bihar
Production
(Food Availability):
Current coping
capacity
Variable onset of
monsoon
Main protein
(pulses) in Terai
Affordability
(Food Access):
Sensitivity to
current stress
Approach to identifying
adaptive capacity
Document Current
Exposure
Climate
Science
Future
Vulnerability
Assess Current
Adaptive Capacity
Assess Future Change
Exposure
Assess Future
Adaptive Capacity
From Gopal Joshi, Clean Energy Nepal.
After: Desanker and Nassef, 2003;
Jones et al.,2002; Kelly and Adger,
2000; Lim 2003)
Identify Modification
for Future Adaptive Capacity
Current
Vulnerability
Social Change
and Process
Step 4: Determine food system adaptation
options and capacity in Case Studies
(future research)
Food Security
determinant
(examples)
Nutritional value
(Food Utilisation):
Stress to which
determinant is
increasingly
exposed
Adaptive
options,
capacity and
feedbacks
Sensitivity to
FUTURE stress
(aim)
FUTURE
vulnerability
(aim)
Variable onset of
monsoon
Access to
improved
cultivars
Lower
Moderate
Insufficient rainfall
Risk mitigation
through improved
technologies &
agricultural
insurance
Lower
Low
Reduced river flow
due to changed
glacier melt
Resource
conservation and
frontier
technologies
Lower
Moderate to High
Main protein
(pulses) in Terai
Affordability
(Food Access):
Household
incomes in Bihar
Production
(Food Availability):
Irrigation
potential in
Punjab
Framework needed to improve
links between science and policy
• How can policies and strategies make best use of
science?
• How to communicate and with whom?
– National level?
– Local level?
– Research organisations?
– Ministries?
• How to make the research message compelling, given
that conceptual understanding is poor?
• How to communicate given challenge of uncertainty?
Integrating GECAFS concepts and methods
to support decision-making
Current Food Systems
Assess
Vulnerability
Identify
Adaptation
Establish
Regional Agenda
?
Support
DecisionMaking
Adapted Food Systems
Build
Scenarios
Analyse
Feedbacks
Pool resources to combat climate change for
peace & prosperity in the world
Thank you