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Climate Change and Food Security
in Southern Africa
Adopting a multi-level research approach
John Ingram
GECAFS Executive Officer
Natural Environment Research Council
Projected climate change
in southern Africa
a)
Slightly warmer
b)
Much warmer
Drier
Wetter
HADCM3 climate model projections of changes in a) temperature and b)
precipitation for 2050 relative to mean conditions over the 1961 to 1990
period, under the IPCC SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario.
MEA SAfMA Report, 2004
Key southern African climate and other GEC
issues, food security policy priorities
and development goals
Southern Africa
Issues
Key Policy Goals
Example Stakeholders
• Increasing climate variability • Enhanced rural infrastructure &
& ENSO
market access
National ag & env ministries
• Veld degradationRegional
and
• Better disaster response &
universities
biodiversity
loss & NGOs (SADC,
“safety
nets”
Regional IGOs
NEPAD,
FANRPAN)
•International
Reduced water
availability
• Strong
agricultural
agencies
(e.g. WFP,
DfID, USAID,
FEWSNet)
development to help achieve
food security
GECAFS-Southern Africa (SAF) Science Plan
Three Overarching Questions
Q1: How will changes in climate
(and in other environmental
parameters) affect the
vulnerability of food systems in
different parts of the region?
Q2: How can food systems be
adapted using technical and
policy options to cope and
improve food security?
Q3: How will various adaptation
options feedback on
environmental and
socioeconomic conditions?
Each Question addressed at
three “levels”
Local-level questions, researched in case-studies (e.g.
districts) at the sub-regional level.
Regional-level questions, to address issues relating to
the region as a whole (top-down view of the region).
Cross-level questions, which integrate output from
case studies up to the regional level (bottom-up view of
the region).
Example Questions for
Food System Vulnerability (Q1)
Local-level
• Which aspects of local food systems (activities and outcomes) are
currently most vulnerable to environmental stress and which
stresses are most threatening?
Regional-level
• Which aspects of GEC as manifesting at the regional-level are
most important in relation to long-term development and food aid?
Cross-level
• What are the trends in food availability, access and utilisation
across the region?
Example Questions for
Food System Adaptation (Q2)
Local-level
• What local-level technical, policy and institutional adaptation
strategies will reduce food system vulnerability?
Regional-level
• Which aspects of regional cooperation need to be improved (e.g.
trade, infrastructure, strategic reserves, transboundary water
management) to help reduce vulnerabilities of food systems?
Cross-level
• How will interactions among regional-level and local-level food
system adaptation strategies affect conditions and decisionmaking at local level?
Example Questions for
Feedbacks (Q3)
Local-level
• How would different adaptation strategies change local
biodiversity, biogeochemical cycling and national greenhouse gas
budgets?
Regional-level
• How would improved regional cooperation aimed at reducing
vulnerabilities of food systems affect international trade?
Cross-level
• How would different adaptation strategies across the region help
achieve SADC’s food security goal?
GECAFS-SAF
Strategic Collaborations
 Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy
Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
 Intra-regional policy networking
 Host organisation
 International Council for Science-Regional Office for
Africa (ICSU-ROA)
 Intra-regional science networking
 Inter-regional science networking
ICSU-ROA / GECAFS Southern Africa Science Plan / FANRPAN
Science
Agencies
Development
Agencies
e.g.
NRF,
ICSU-Africa
e.g.
CARE, FAO,
DFID/IDRC
improved GEC/food
systems science
improved livelihoods &
reduced vulnerability
Policy
Makers
Resource
Managers
e.g.
e.g.
SADC, national ag
farmers, range
& env ministries conservation NGOs
improved food improved food security
security policies & nat resource mgmt
How can Southern African food systems
be adapted to reduce their vulnerability to GEC?
Natural
Science
GECAFS Conceptual
Research Plan
e.g.
• climate variability
• land degradation
• biodiversity loss
ESSP
Social
Science
e.g.
• vulnerability
• resource tenure
• social capital
GECAFS-SAF
5-year implementation
1. ~ 5 Case Studies across the region, each
addressing the food systems questions relating to
GEC vulnerability and impacts, adaptation options and
feedbacks.
2. Regional Scientific Networking, to link case
study research with other relevant research in the
region and internationally.
3. Science-Policy Interface, linking national
researchers with policymakers, the private sector, civil
society and representatives of regional food security
programmes.
Principal GECAFS-SAF outputs
 Improved understanding of how GEC will additionally affect food
security across the region and among different socioeconomic
groups
 Assessments of how adaptation strategies designed to cope with
GEC and changing demands for food will affect the environment,
societies and economies
 Enhanced regional research capacity in food security and
environmental issues
 Strengthened regional policy formulation capacity for food
security and environmental governance
 Policy recommendations for adaptation options