Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Psychometrics wikipedia , lookup
Inductive probability wikipedia , lookup
Bootstrapping (statistics) wikipedia , lookup
Confidence interval wikipedia , lookup
Law of large numbers wikipedia , lookup
Taylor's law wikipedia , lookup
Foundations of statistics wikipedia , lookup
Statistical inference wikipedia , lookup
History of statistics wikipedia , lookup
Student's t-test wikipedia , lookup
69.266* BUSINESS STATISTICS I Fall 2002 Instructor: A. Woodside office: 3205 HP, phone: 520-2600 ext. 2143 email: [email protected] webpage: http://math.carleton.ca/~awoodsid Text: Business Statistics in Practice, ed 2, by Bowerman, O'Connell, Hand Computer Manual: Learning SAS Version 8 (course pack manual sold in lab class or in bookstore) A 3 1/2" diskette for saving your SAS programs and output. References: Statistics for Management and Economics, by Keller & Warrack Introduction to Probability & Statistics, 10 ed: Mendenhall/Beaver/Beaver Basic Business Statistics: Berenson & Levine Statistics for Business & Economics: Anderson, Sweeney & Williams Calculators: Only NON-PROGRAMMABLE calculators may be used for tests and exams. Timetable: The course involves 3 hours of lectures each week and a one hour COMPULSORY statistical computing lab most weeks. Computer Lab: 3393 HP Labs will start the week of Sept. 16 Assignments: There will be 4 or 5 assignments, depending on length. ALL assignments count toward the term mark. Assignments will not all be worth the same amount. Your final assignment mark will be the sum of your marks divided by the possible total of all the assignments. Midterms: There will be 2 term tests of 1 1/2 hours each. Test 1 will be held on Friday, Oct. 4 sometime between 5:00 and 7:00pm, and Test 2 on Friday, Nov. 8 between 5:00 and 7:00pm. Locations will be given in class. Make sure you find out exactly when and where a test will be held. Marking Scheme: Final Exam: Lab assignments: MidTerm: NOTE: 50% 25% 25% 1. At least 3 lab assignments must be handed in or an automatic grade of F will be given for the course. 2. A mark of at least 40% is required on the final exam in order to receive a passing grade. 3. Material covered in class may not always be the same as that in the text. Some topics may be expanded and others not covered. Solutions: Solutions to all assignments, review problems, tests, etc. will be put on Reserve in the Library. Ask for the 69.266 Reserve Binder at the Reserve Desk. There will also be extra copies in 3203 HP (Mrs. Woodside's office). Paul Menton Centre: Students with disabilities requiring special accomodation are encouraged to contact a coordinator at the Paul Menton Centre to complete the necessary letters of accomodation. After registering with the PMC, make an appointment to come and discuss your needs with me at least two weeks prior to the first inclass test. Please note that the deadline for submitting Formal Examination Accomodation Forms for December examinations to the Paul Menton Centre is November 1, 2002. COURSE OUTLINE (APPROXIMATE) Weeks 1 Contents Text Sections Overview of Course: Introduction to statistics: what is statistics?, population, sample, descriptive statistics, statistical inference, types 1.1 - 1.4 of data (defns. as given in class) Basic Probability: random experiment, sample space, events; approaches to assigning probabilities Chapter 3 + (classical, relative freq., subjective); axiomatic definition & rules of probability; class material addition rule; Venn diagrams; contingency tables; conditional probability & independence; multiplication rule; probablity trees; counting rules; Bayes Theorem; to Descriptive Statistics: Graphical Numerical 4 frequency distributions (freq., relative freq., percentage, cumulative); histograms & polygons; stem & leaf displays; pie charts, bar charts, line charts; scatter diagrams; graphical deception measures of location and dispersion for populations and samples (mean, median, mode, range, variance, standard deviation, C.V.) for both raw & grouped data; shape of a distribution; Empirical rule; Tchebychef rule; quantiles, IQR, box plots 2.1 - 2.7 Random Variables, Probability Distributions & Mathematical Expectation: 4.1, 4.2 random variables; probability distribution (of discrete r.v.); expected values, mean & variance of discrete prob. distns.; rules of expected values & variance Specific Discrete Probability Distributions: 4.3, 4.4 binomial, hypergeometric, binomial approximation to hypergeometric, Poisson distn., Appendix C Poisson approximation to binomial Weeks Contents Text Sections 5 Continuous Probability Distributions: probability density function; P(a < Y < b) as area under density function; expected values as integrals; uniform distribution; normal distribution; calculating normal 5.1 - 5.4 probabilities; normal approximations to binomial, Poisson distributions; exponential 5.5(if time) distn.(if time) to Sampling & Sampling Distributions: random sampling; concept of sampling distn.; sampling distn. of the sample mean, Central Limit Theorem, finite population correction factor; sampling distn. of the sample proportion; sampling distn. of the sample variance 8 9 to 6.1, 6.2 + 8.8 Estimation: point estimators (unbiasedness, consistency, efficiency); interval estimators, confidence interval for population mean variance known 7.1 + Introduction to Hypothesis Testing: concepts of hypothesis testing - null & alternative hypotheses, test statistic, critical region, type I & type II errors, power of test(what it means, not calculation) 8.1 Single Population Inference: tests about a single population mean variance known; tests about a single population variance, confidence interval for variance; tests about a population proportion, confidence interval for proportion; tests about a population mean, variance unknown 7.2, 7.4(p260262), 8.2 - 8.6, 8.9 Comparison of Two Populations: tests about the difference in 2 population means, variances known, confidence interval for difference in means; tests about the difference in 2 population means, variances 9.1, 9.2, 9.4 unknown, confidence interval variances unknown; paired t-test Sample Size Determination: for estimating a population mean; for estimating a population proportion 12 7.3, 7.4(p262264) Testing for Normality (if time) Catch-up and Review WARNING: The above weekly schedule is subject to change. Make sure you keep up to date with any changes in order of presentation, etc.