Download EFFECT - Clean Air Institute

FACTSHEET 5
Energy Forecasting Framework
Consensus Tool (EFFECT)
and
Emissions
Developer
The World Bank, The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP)
Location
http://vle.worldbank.org/moodle/course/view.php?id=500
http:// www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT
EFFECT is a Visual Basic Microsoft Excel 2007 based tool that forecasts national-level
emissions over 25+ year periods and quantifies GHG emissions reductions from policies
that could be adopted in different sectors, including that of on-road transit. The tool is thus
useful for determining where investments might be most efficiently targeted when
considering national-level interventions.
Methodology
The EFFECT model includes 5 sectors that contribute significantly to emissions and are
rapidly growing in developing nations: electricity generation, energy-intensive industries
with significant potential for future expansion, non-residential buildings, residential energy
use, and road transport. Given different scenarios, it estimates the annual fuel
consumption and GHG emissions from energy use, as well as the "investment, operating
and maintenance costs and fuel costs" by sector over the period of study. The model also
estimates the costs of reducing GHG emissions under each scenario.
Specifically regarding the transport module within EFFECT, the program projects a
“detailed national baseline vehicle population from historic sales data” in addition to a
vehicle mortality function (the Winfrey S3 survival curve). From the baseline vehicle
population, the model can forecast vehicular fuel consumption and emissions for each
vehicle type based on predicted future usage patterns by vehicle age and type, as well as
“locally-calibrated speed-dependant and usage-sensitive emissions factors (from COPERT
4).” Alternate scenarios can then be built off of the baseline projection.
The model's on-road transport module goes beyond emissions inventory estimation and
evaluates how emissions could be expected to change over a typically 20-30 year period
based on different scenarios of policy actions. The model can predict change in the Freight
and passenger transport needs, size and compositions on vehicle fleet, and fuel economy
consumption and GHG emissions.
Source: (Rogers, 2011)
Inputs
General model inputs:
Economic forecast
Population data
Fuel prices
Income and price elasticities
CO2 emissions factors
The transport module requires detailed data on:
 National-level data: population size, urbanization, GDP
 Household data by location (urban/rural) and centile:
-household size
-number of households
-per capita expenditure
-household expenditure
-households owning
 Urban population
-Passenger-km traveled (PKT)
 Economy activity
-Freight-tons transported (FTKT)
 Modal shift and Other modes
 Transport modes: private vehicle ownership and use, buses and coaches, and
Light and heavy duty goods vehicles
-Vehicle population by mode
-Vehicle capacities
-VKT
-Passenger-km traveled by mode
 Vehicle mortality rate and fleet replacement rate, new technology, and car park
growth
 Operating conditions:
-Ambient,
-Biofuels
-Road speed
-Load and grade
-Maintenance
 COPERT 4, emission factors
-Local, road-test calibration data for emissions factors
-Projected change in vehicle efficiency

Vehicle Categories (see Table 3.1
Table 3.1 EFFECT Vehicle Categories
Vehicle types
Vehicle sub-type
2-wheelers (2W)
Mopeds, scooters, motorcycles
3-wheelers (3W)
All
Passenger cars (PC)
Mini, small, lower medium, upper
medium, large & luxury, SUV and
AUV/MUV
Light-duty commercial vehicles for All LCV used to transport passenger
passengers (LCV - Passenger)
Light-duty commercial vehicles for Mini van/truck, pick-up, van
freight (LVC – Goods)
Heavy-duty commercial vehicles By GVW group
(HDC – Urban bus)
Heavy-duty commercial vehicles: By GVW group
long distance (HDC – coach)
Heavy-duty commercial vehicles: Rigid truck by GVW, and tractorfreight (HDC – Truck)
trailer combination by GCW groups.
Pollutants/Gases Analyzed
CO2, CO, VOC, NOx, PM
Evaluation
Table 3.2 EFFECT Evaluation (strengths and weaknesses)
Strengths
Weaknesses
EFFECT sums the influence of Based on Euro vehicle technology
multiple
sectors
(power standards only and emission factors
generation, on-road transport, require
calibration
to
local
household
electricity
use, conditions using locally measured
nonresidential and large-scale fuel consumption data for popular
energy-intensive industry energy in-use vehicles in each category
consumption).
under city and highway driving
conditions.
EFFECT is compatible with TAMT,
MACtool, and LULUCF, which Need extensive data collected from
together form an integrated suite local transport offices, fuel retailers
through which to analyze and car sellers. It also uses
pollution from a range of sources. comprehensive surveys to match
the sales data with the vehicle
It is freely downloable from the population per household and to
world bank page, contains e- calibrate the mortality models. The
learning courses (6 modules), and model is significantly data-intensive.
supporting material.
Functions at the macro and meso
Undertakes
a
cost/benefit scale only.
economic analysis considering
new vehicle prices, fuel costs, EFFECT would be useful in
insurance costs, maintenance and modeling
the
impact
of
other costs.
interventions only for those that
influence vehicle/fuel cost.
No information available (not
publicly available) which allows to
define facility to use
Precedents
Has been used in 9 city-level analyses: Bangkok, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hanoi, Ho
Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Manila, Ulaanbaatar
Has been used in 5 country-level low carbon development analyses: India, Brazil, Poland,
Vietnam, Macedonia
References
Rogers, J., 2011. A. TAMT Practitioners’ Guide. The World Bank. Pages 152. (129139). Accessed on July 21, 2011 at: http://www.cleanairinstitute.org/wp/wpcontent/uploads/2011/07/TAMT_Guide_Final.pdf
Rogers, J., The World Bank & ESMAP. Measuring and forecasting global and local
emissions from on-road transport presentation. (May 21, 2011) Accessed on July
22,
2011
at:
http://www.cleanairinstitute.org/download/rosario/sp12_05_john_rogers.pdf
Rogers, J., The World Bank & ESMAP. Measuring Transport Activity. A Toolkit for
Evaluating Fuel Consumption and Emissions from On Road Vehicles and
forecasting global and local emissions from on-road transport presentation. (July
11,
2011).
Accessed
on
July
21,
2011
at:
http://www.cleanairinstitute.org/wp/wpcontent/uploads/2011/07/TAMTEFFECT_20110711-presentation.pdf