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My work combines: assessment and psychometrics analytics and predictive analytics … Applied science! Analytics The Big Data revolution • Similar as the invention of printed press in 1440 The hype A new business Data science “We are drowning in information but starved for knowledge.” (John Naisbitt) • Data does not mean Knowledge • Data science = Data mining = finding patterns in data • Data science is not statistics data science: bottom-up (exploratory) statistics: top-down (confirmatory) Data scientist Data scientist Analytics: a mindset “In God we trust; all others must bring data.” (William Edwards Deming) • Data-Driven Decision making Analytics: a mindset • Moneyball: the benchmark Analytics: a mindset • The Art of Winning an Unfair Game Analytics: a mindset • Think differently: Recruiting players based on stats rather than intuition • Example: Stats prove that players drafted out of high school are much less likely to succeed than players drafted out of college. Analytics: a mindset • Equivalent in business Analytics: a mindset • Enrico Fermi, physicien italo-américain Combien y a-t-il d'accordeurs de piano dans la ville de New York? Analytics: a mindset • Enrico Fermi, physicien italo-américain Combien y a-t-il d'accordeurs de piano dans la ville de New York? New York: 10 millions d’habitants environ 1 piano pour 30 familles soit 100 habitants donc 100 000 pianos à New York un piano reste accordé 3 ans soit environ 1000 jours donc environ 100 pianos à accorder par jour estimation: entre 50 et 100 accordeurs! Analytics: a mindset Analytics: a mindset “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” (Archilochus) • The data scientist is a fox… Analytics: a mindset • Nate Silver and the data journalism Analytics: a mindset “There is nothing we love more than finding things in data that no one else can see.” (Steven Levitt) The signal and the noise • Big Data: a lot of noise, few signal… The signal and the noise 61 160 main economic indicators 1 870 242 220 correlations… The signal and the noise • Overfitting: mistaking noise for signal The signal and the noise • Google Flu Trends More is not better “The desire to have datasets as large as possible […] is driven by our instinctive craving for plenty (richness), and by boyish tendency to have a "bigger" toy (car, gun, house, pirate ship, database) than anyone else.” Poker • Skill or luck? Poker Poker Poker Sports • How to measure the value of a basketball player? • The « Plus/Minus » stat Sports • Introducing Quasi-Experimental Plus/Minus Predictive Analytics Making predictions “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” (Lawrence Peter « Yogi » Berra) A major issue • Minority report… Predicting behavior Facteurs psychologiques attitudes personnalité intelligence … Facteurs environnementaux Comportement Predicting behavior • Sometimes it works • Dawes (1979) : le bonheur conjugal peut être prédit par une formule simple fréquence des rapports sexuels – fréquence des disputes Predicting behavior Predicting the vote Est-ce que la prise en compte des attitudes implicites en plus des attitudes explicites permet de mieux prédire le comportement ? • Second tour élection présidentielle 2012 • Passation IAT online • N = 687 Predicting the vote Predicting the vote Predicting the vote Berthet, V., Barthélémy, L., & Kop, J.-L. When implicit fails: Explicit but not implicit attitudes predict choices of decided and undecided voters. The IAT The IAT The IAT The IAT Predicting students’ success • Prédire le résultat à la L2 (admis vs. non-admis) à partir de : moyenne à la session 1 et moyenne en L1 • Régression logistique (N = 270) : Résultat Prédiction VPP: 92% Echec Réussite Echec 67 28 Réussite 14 161 VPN: 70.5%