Download assessment and psychometrics analytics and

My work combines:
assessment and psychometrics
analytics and predictive analytics
… Applied science!
Analytics
The Big Data revolution
• Similar as the invention of printed press in 1440
The hype
A new business
Data science
“We are drowning in information but starved for
knowledge.” (John Naisbitt)
• Data does not mean Knowledge
• Data science = Data mining = finding patterns in data
• Data science is not statistics
data science: bottom-up (exploratory)
statistics: top-down (confirmatory)
Data scientist
Data scientist
Analytics: a mindset
“In God we trust; all others must bring data.”
(William Edwards Deming)
• Data-Driven Decision making
Analytics: a mindset
• Moneyball: the benchmark
Analytics: a mindset
• The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
Analytics: a mindset
• Think differently:
Recruiting players based on stats rather than intuition
• Example:
Stats prove that players drafted out of high school are
much less likely to succeed than players drafted out of
college.
Analytics: a mindset
• Equivalent in business
Analytics: a mindset
• Enrico Fermi, physicien italo-américain
Combien y a-t-il d'accordeurs de piano dans la ville de
New York?
Analytics: a mindset
• Enrico Fermi, physicien italo-américain
Combien y a-t-il d'accordeurs de piano dans la ville de
New York?
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
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New York: 10 millions d’habitants
environ 1 piano pour 30 familles soit 100 habitants
donc 100 000 pianos à New York
un piano reste accordé 3 ans soit environ 1000 jours
donc environ 100 pianos à accorder par jour
estimation: entre 50 et 100 accordeurs!
Analytics: a mindset
Analytics: a mindset
“The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows
one big thing.” (Archilochus)
• The data scientist is a fox…
Analytics: a mindset
• Nate Silver and the data journalism
Analytics: a mindset
“There is nothing we love more than finding things in
data that no one else can see.” (Steven Levitt)
The signal and the noise
• Big Data: a lot of noise, few signal…
The signal and the noise
61 160 main economic indicators
1 870 242 220 correlations…
The signal and the noise
• Overfitting: mistaking noise for signal
The signal and the noise
• Google Flu Trends
More is not better
“The desire to have datasets as large as possible […] is
driven by our instinctive craving for plenty (richness),
and by boyish tendency to have a "bigger" toy (car, gun,
house, pirate ship, database) than anyone else.”
Poker
• Skill or luck?
Poker
Poker
Poker
Sports
• How to measure the value of a basketball player?
• The « Plus/Minus » stat
Sports
• Introducing Quasi-Experimental Plus/Minus
Predictive Analytics
Making predictions
“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the
future.” (Lawrence Peter « Yogi » Berra)
A major issue
• Minority report…
Predicting behavior
Facteurs
psychologiques
attitudes
personnalité
intelligence
…
Facteurs
environnementaux
Comportement
Predicting behavior
• Sometimes it works
• Dawes (1979) : le bonheur conjugal peut être prédit
par une formule simple
fréquence des rapports sexuels – fréquence des disputes
Predicting behavior
Predicting the vote
Est-ce que la prise en compte des attitudes implicites en
plus des attitudes explicites permet de mieux prédire le
comportement ?
• Second tour élection présidentielle 2012
• Passation IAT online
• N = 687
Predicting the vote
Predicting the vote
Predicting the vote
Berthet, V., Barthélémy, L., & Kop, J.-L. When implicit
fails: Explicit but not implicit attitudes predict choices of
decided and undecided voters.
The IAT
The IAT
The IAT
The IAT
Predicting students’ success
• Prédire le résultat à la L2 (admis vs. non-admis) à
partir de : moyenne à la session 1 et moyenne en L1
• Régression logistique (N = 270) :
Résultat
Prédiction
VPP: 92%
Echec
Réussite
Echec
67
28
Réussite
14
161
VPN: 70.5%