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Profile of WWF – Pakistan
and Climate Change
Dr. Ejaz Ahmad
October 16, 2012
Dhaka, Bangladesh
Ghulam Rasool Mughal. All Rights Reserved
WWF’s mission is to stop the degradation of the planet’s natural environment
and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature, by:
• conserving the world’s biological diversity.
• ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable.
• promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption.
WWF - Pakistan
1970
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WWF was founded in 1970
WWF is working on 21
projects with 32 offices
scattered all over Pakistan.
US$ 8 million
WWF -Pak has an annual
budget of US$ 8 million.
+ 350
WWF has over 350
staff in Pakistan
WWF Network Meta-Goals
How we do it?
We’re here to stop the
degradation of our
planet’s natural
environment, and build a
future where people live in
harmony with nature.
We do this by
Reducing our footprint on
the natural world by
challenging wasteful
consumption and pollution
and promoting
sustainability.
Protecting biodiversity the
magnificent array of living
things that inhabit our
planet, and the places they
live.
Reduce
Footprint
Protect
Biodiversity
The Global 200
The Global 200 is a
ranking of the World’s
most biologically
outstanding terrestrial,
freshwater and marine
ecosystems.
Five of these Eco-regions
are found in Pakistan:
• Rann of Kutch Flooded
Grasslands
• Tibetan Plateau
• Western Himalaya Forest
• Indus Delta Ecosystem
• Arabian Sea
Global Priority Issues of WWF
Climate Change
Freshwater
Forests
Marine
Species
Toxics
Approaches of WWF
•
•
•
•
Work in partnership and build capacity of partners
Integrating conservation & development
Involve local communities
Research based solutions
Ghulam Rasool Mughal. All Rights Reserved
•
•
•
350 staff
30+ offices
Annual Budget 5
Million
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation
in Coastal Areas of Pakistan
www.wwfpak.org/ccap
Climate Change in Pakistan
• Pakistan contributes very little (135th) to Green House
Gases (GHGs) but remains one of the most vulnerable
country. It contributes only about 0.8% of the total
global GHG emissions.
• Biggest contributor is the energy sector with 50%
share, followed by the agriculture sector (39% share),
industrial processes (6% share) and other activities (5%
share)
• Impact of climatic changes encompass varied areas
such biodiversity, agriculture, fisheries, forests, water,
energy, food, natural disasters, etc.
• This could directly impact country’s national, food,
water and energy security
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Climate Change in Pakistan
• Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to Climate
Change,
• Visible changes in hydrological cycle have
been observed in the form of
– Changing precipitation pattern
– Droughts
– Water availability periods
– Frequency and intensity of heat waves
– Precipitation events
– Weather-induced natural disasters.
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan
The Long-Term Climate Risk Index (CRI): Results (annual averages) in
specific indicators in the 10 countries most affected in 1991 to 2010
Source:Germanwatch
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The Climate Risk Index for 2010: the 10 Most Affected Countries
Source:Germanwatch
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Present Climatic Indicators:
Temperature
• Average annual temperature over Pakistan
increased by 0.6 °C during the last century,
with the temperature increase over northern
Pakistan being higher than over southern
Pakistan (0.8 °C versus 0.5 °C)
• Global Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs:
Year
Expected temperature increase
2020s
1.3 – 1.5 °C
2050s
2.5 – 2.8 °C
2080s
3.9 – 4.4 °C
Source: Report of Task Force on Climate Change, February 2010
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Annual Temperature Variation
Past 50 years’ daily temp (weighted annual averages) – rise after ‘00, excepting ’05.
Trend due partly to severest El-Nino yet (>4⁰C above normal heating of EastEquatorial Pacific water
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan
Implications
Increase in maximum and minimum temperatures in the
winter season results in shorter winters as well longer
summers
Reduce the length of the growing season for crops
 Hastens the biological life cycle of crops
 Plants undergo accelerated maturity without reaching the
appropriate size or height
 Reduced economic yields
 This trend is observable in the case of wheat.
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan
Present Climatic Indicators:
Precipitation
• Precipitation over Pakistan increased on the
average by 25%. However, there is expected
no significant change in annual precipitation in
near future
• It is projected that climate change will
increase the variability of monsoon rains
resulting into increased frequency and
severity of floods and droughts
Source: Report of Task Force on Climate Change, February 2010
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Existing policy, institutional and
legislative structure
• Pakistan’s environmental policy framework is
based on the Pakistan Environment Protection
Act 1997 (PEPA)
• Ministry of Climate Change has been
established
• “Inter-ministerial Committee on Climate
Change” was established in 2008
• In 2008, Planning Commission established a
Task Force on Climate Change
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Existing policy, institutional and
legislative structure….contd.
• National Climate Change Policy 2012 provides
framework for addressing climatic issues
• Drinking and National Water Policy, National
Sustainable Development Strategy, National
Rangeland Policy, Pakistan Water Sector
Strategy, Punjab Urban Water and Sanitation
Policy are few in the list of many policy
documents
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National Scenario: Hydrological Units
• Pakistan is divided into three hydrological
units:
– the Indus basin, covering an area of over
566,000 km2 (70% of the surveyed area in the
country),
– the Kharan desert in west Balochistan with its
inland drainage, and
– the arid Makran coast along the Arabian Sea in the
South
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Source: Pakistan Initial Communication on Climate Change
Indus Irrigation System
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National Scenario: Forests
• Forest in Pakistan is diverse because of varied
ecological zones and environment variations
• Total estimated area under forest cover is
around 4.22 million hectares, which comprises
of 4.8% total landmass
• It is envisaged to increase forest cover from
4.9% of the total land area in 2005 to 5.2% in
2010 and 6.0% by 2015
• Pakistan is gifted with diverse habitats that are
home to varied animal and plant life
Source: State of Forests and Forestry in Pakistan; Shahid Rashid Awan and Asghar
Khan July 2009
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Disaster Management Systems
• National Disaster Management (NDM) Act 2010
provides a complete institutional mechanism of
pre, during and post disaster management at
federal, provincial and district levels
• National Disaster Management Council (NDMC) is
an apex body in the field of disaster management
under the chairmanship of Prime Minister
• National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)
is the leading implementing agency headed by
Chairman/Director General
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Water Security Socioeconomic
• Water Sector: Current Status and Vulnerability
– Pakistan is extremely short of fresh water resources.
– Water-stressed country water availability heading towards
less than 1000 cubic meter/y by 2035 (WB 2006).
– Pakistan’s primary sources of water are rainfall (50 maf ) by
monsoon and westerly winds and river inflows (141 maf)
in the Indus River System fed by glaciers and snowmelt
from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas.
– The shares of main contributing rivers to the IRS in
Pakistan are:
• Indus: 44%, Chenab: 19%, Jhelum: 16%, Kabul: 16% and Others:
5% (see Figure 5.1).
• The per capita availability of river water, which was 5,650 cubic
meter/y in 1951 and 1000 cubic meter/y in 2010, is expected to
decline further to 800 cubic meter/y in 2026.
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Vulnerabilities of The Indus
Delta due to Climate Change
• The Indus Delta is a fertile region located in
climatically arid zone of intense heat and highly
variable annual rainfall
• Deltaic region is vulnerable to climate change
induced problems which include:
–
–
–
–
Droughts and floods
Saline water intrusion
Coastal erosion
Increased crop water requirement
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan
Precipitation
Inter-annual variability of precipitation over Pakistan during the last century and first decade of 21st
century. Climate Research Unit (CRU) data used to downscale Pakistan’s regional precipitation
Past 50 years Indus Ecoregion trends (droughts eg, 68-69 and 71-74), has damaged crops,
ecosystem services, etc.
In this case, the real time precipitation records of 56 meteorological stations have been incorporated
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan
Sea Surface Temperature
• Pakistan receives rainfall in summer mainly from
weather systems formed over the North Arabian
Sea and the Bay of Bengal
• Frequency and intensity of Tropical Cyclones has
increased
• Analysis revealed that the Bay of Bengal was
warmer than the North Arabian Sea till mid
1990s.
• The trend started inverting and now the latter is
slightly warmer than the former.
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan
Sea Surface Temperature
Inter-annual variation of sea surface temperature over the North Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in
June from 1982 to 2011
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan
Sea Level Rise
There is evidence of sea level rise along the
Pakistan coast
• Effects include:
–
–
–
–
–
Coastal erosion;
Wetland and coastal plain flooding;
Inundation of deltaic plains;
Salinization of aquifers and soils;
Loss of habitats for fish, birds, and other wildlife and
plants
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan
Coastal Erosion
Change/Shift in agricultural activities
1.2 million acre
land in Indus
Delta is under
water intrusion
App. 4,544 ha
agriculture land
has been
destroyed along
Humbas Wali
creek since 1952
This area was
irrigated through
Ochito River by
regular flow of
Indus River up to
1960s
Humbas Wali creek
Agriculture land in 1952
Agriculture land in 2006
Sea Intrusion and Coastal Erosion
• 0.5 million hectares of
fertile land in Thatta
district alone (or 12% of
the entire cultivated area
of the province) is affected
by sea intrusion.
• Lives of about 400,000
fishermen families are
threatened
• Rangeland depletion,
shortage of fodder and
food crops, reduction in
potable water, losses to
livestock production are
translating into out
migration of local
population.
Rapid Glaciers Retreat
• Pakistan’s rivers are predominantly fed by Hindu Kush,
Karakoram and Himalyan glaciers. These are receding due to
rising temperatures
Siachen Glacier (largest glacier of HKH) retreated by 5.9 km during 21
years and lost 17% ice mass
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan
Extreme Weather Events
Recent extreme weather events which inflicted great loss to
the socio-economic sector
Cloudburst Events 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008,2009, 2010, 2011
Prolonged Drought 1999-2002
Historic River Flooding 2010
Tropical Cyclones 1999,2007,2009,2010, 2011
 Severe Urban Flooding 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010,
2011
Heat Waves in Spring 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011 (Reduced the
wheat yield)
Snowmelt flooding 2005, 2007 and 2010
Drought at sowing stage 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 and
2011
Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan
Thank you
www.wwfpak.org/ccap
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