Download IEA Implementing Agreement RETD Strategy

RETD Perspectives on the Role of Renewable
Energy in Global Energy Scenarios
Ryan Katofsky
Representing the Renewable Energy Technology Deployment
Implementation Agreement of the IEA
Parallel Session 9: Power Generation
2009 International Energy Workshop
17-19 June 2009, Venice, Italy
Yogiisms
“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
“The future ain't what it used to be.”
“If you don't know where you're going, you'll wind up
somewhere else.”
www.iea-retd.org
What is the RETD?
The RETD seeks to significantly increase the use of
renewable energy in RETD member countries.

Formed after the International Conference for
Renewable Energies in Bonn, Germany, June 2004

Goals:
 Improve cooperation between participating countries
on deployment issues
 Fund projects that encourage technology deployment by publicprivate partnerships
 Inform and facilitate ongoing international dialogue and public
awareness of renewable energy
 Encourage international deployment of renewable energy
through improved policies
www.iea-retd.org
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Evolution of the Global Energy System
Changes to the global energy system call for new
modeling approaches.
Historical Paradigm
Current & Future Trends
Incremental demand growth met with
existing technologies; Little concern for CO2
emissions
Rapid change to meet the challenge of
climate change (decarbonization of
incremental and existing demand)
Large, centralized infrastructure
Mix of centralized, dispersed, and more
remote infrastructure, including more
customer-sited capacity
Gradual, predictable evolution of
established technologies
New technologies arise; Technology cost &
performance change rapidly; More potential
for disruptive breakthroughs
Energy security focuses on oil supply and
price
Multiple security considerations: energy
supply, infrastructure vulnerability, and
geopolitical risk associated with oil
dependence and climate change impacts
www.iea-retd.org
Summary of RETD Activities
In late 2007, the RETD began a project to address the
role of renewable energy in global energy scenarios.
Project rationale:

Global energy scenarios – especially those of the IEA – are crucial for
guiding the development of energy policies and investment decisions.

In the view of the RETD, IEA scenarios are too conservative with
respect to renewable energy (RE) deployment and learning rates.
Key activities

Established positive working relationships with members of the WEO
and ETP analytical teams:
 Provided input to the ETP 2008, WEO 2008 and WEO 2009

Developed a detailed position on the role of RE in global scenarios

Initiated development of its own RE-intensive scenario
www.iea-retd.org
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RE Market Projections
RE market estimates in the WEO 2008 appear
conservative relative to industry trends.
Historical and Projected Solar PV Markets – Total Installed Capacity
Annual growth at
1/2 of historical
Annual
growth at 1/3
of historical
• 2000-2008 historical annual growth: ~37%
• Projected 2009-2013 annual growth:36-40%
Source: Navigant Consulting Inc (NCI) PV Services Program, February 2009; WEO2008; Navigant Consulting analysis.
Note: Navigant Consulting forecasts only go to 2013, and have been converted from DC to AC for comparison with the WEO data. Data is
extrapolated beyond that date as shown.
www.iea-retd.org
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RE Market Projections
RE market estimates in the WEO 2008 appear
conservative relative to industry trends. (continued)
Historical and Projected Wind Power Markets – Total Installed Capacity
Annual growth at
1/2 of historical
• 2000-2008 historical annual growth: ~27%
• Projected 2009-2020 annual growth:17-18%
Annual
growth at 1/3
of historical
Source: GWEC; BtM Consult; WEO2008; Navigant Consulting Inc (NCI) analysis.
Note: Navigant Consulting forecasts only go to 2020. Data is extrapolated beyond that date as shown
www.iea-retd.org
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Other Key Observations on Scenarios
The IEA should include a more complete assessment
of economic costs and benefits.

The WEO 2008 showed that climate change mitigation is
economically equivalent, or even superior, to taking minimal action.1

This excludes other economic benefits, such as:
 Job creation & rural economic development
 Improved energy security & reduced energy price volatility
 Reduced climate change adaptation costs
Scenario
Net Incremental Investment
over Reference Scenario,
$ trillion ($2007) (2010-2030)
Cumulative, undiscounted
Energy Cost Savings over RS,
$ trillion ($2007) (2010-2030)2
550 Policy Scenario
$0.5
>$7.0
450 Policy Scenario
$5.63
$5.8
1. This conclusion is based on the information available in the WEO 2008, Chapter 19.
2. Additional energy costs savings will accrue beyond 2030 for the investments made prior to 2030.
3. This assumes that the 450 Policy Scenario has the same investment savings over the Reference Scenario (due to higher efficiency) as
the 550 Policy Scenario ($3.7 trillion). The actual value was not provided in the WEO 2008.
www.iea-retd.org
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Improving Future Scenarios
The RETD is developing its own RE-intensive scenario.
RETD’s Principals for Improving Global Energy Scenarios
GHG Targets
Examine aggressive targets that achieve climate stabilization with
high probability
Disruptive Include disruptive developments that are increasingly likely (e.g.,
Technologies “smart grid”, plug-in hybrid vehicles, PV reaching grid parity)
Economic
Analysis
Incorporate climate change adaptation costs and other economic
costs and benefits, aside from direct investments and fuel savings
Security
Consider the range of security considerations that affect energy
choices
Fossil Fuel
Prices
Conduct sensitivity analysis on fossil fuel prices and attempt to
model the impacts of price volatility
Infrastructure Better modeling of distributed generation, especially in developing
Development economies, and deployment of the “smart grid”
Transparency
www.iea-retd.org
Provide complete documentation of a model’s methodology,
assumptions, inputs, and results
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Conclusions
Renewable energy is a key component to climate
change mitigation.

Renewable energy, along with energy efficiency, offer
the lowest risk solutions to climate change.

The scenarios of the IEA are critical for understanding
the role of RE in the global energy system.

Accurate representation of the potential of RE is
therefore critical.

The RETD looks forward to future collaboration with
other parts of the IEA on this important topic.
www.iea-retd.org
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THANK YOU
Ryan Katofsky
[email protected]
+1.781.307.7460 (M)
For Additional Information on the RETD:
Online: www.iea-retd.org
Contact: [email protected]
Matthew Stanberry
[email protected]
+1.781.270.8362 (O)
Notice
RETD Notice
The RETD is comprised of ten countries: Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the
Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom. Hans Jørgen Koch, Deputy State Secretary, Ministry of Climate
and Energy, Danish Energy Agency, serves as Chair of the RETD.
The RETD Implementing Agreement is one of a number of Implementing Agreements on renewable energy under
the framework of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The creation of the RETD Implementing Agreement was
announced at the International Renewable Energy Conference in Bonn, 2004.
The IEA Implementing Agreement functions within a framework created by the IEA. Views, findings and
publications of the RETD do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or all of its
individual member countries.
Navigant Consulting Inc. Notice
This presentation was prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. (NCI) on behalf of the RETD Implementing
Agreement of the IEA. This presentation represents NCI’s best judgment in light of information made available to
us. The reader is advised that in certain cases, NCI has not independently verified all the information contained
therein. The reader understands that no assurances can be made that all financial liabilities have been identified.
This presentation must be read in its entirety. This report does not constitute a legal opinion.
Any use the reader makes of this presentation, or any reliance upon or decisions to be made based upon this
presentation are the responsibility of the reader. NCI does not accept any responsibility for damages, if any,
suffered by the reader based upon this presentation.
www.iea-retd.org
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