Download Natural disasters include earthquakes, floods

Natural Disasters
[Natural disasters include earthquakes, floods, monsoons, hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunami,
volcanoes, droughts, wildfires, electrical storms, epidemics – variances in severity taken
into account in questions]
Natural Disaster Patterns
Does this country lie within a major earthquake or volcanic zone? [Refer to risk map for
answer]
___ No
___ Yes, a low risk zone
_x__ Yes, a high risk zone
Which risk map are we using? I got different answers depending on the map I
found…
Does this country lie within a monsoon, cyclone or tropical storm path? [Refer to risk
map for answer]
___ No
___ Yes, a low risk zone
__x_ Yes, a high risk zone
Same as above..
Is this country prone to droughts? [Refer to risk map for answer]
___ No
___ Yes, a low risk zone
___ Yes, a high risk zone
*some parts of Mexico, yes, others no.
Is this country prone to wildfires? [Refer to risk map for answer]
___ No
___ Yes, a low risk zone
___ Yes, a high risk zone
*some parts of Mexico, yes, others no.
How frequently do *major* natural disasters occur in this country? ie. Natural disasters
that have a devastating impact on the supply chain.
___ Almost never
___ Rarely, a major natural disaster occurs maybe once in a decade
__x_ A major natural disaster is bound to occur every 3-5 years (more hurricane than
anything else)
___ Major natural disasters occur about once a year
___ Major natural disasters are a fact of life in this country – would not be unusual to
have more than one in a given year
Response and Preparedness
What’s the level of predictive and early warning capabilities for natural disasters in this
country? ie. emergency broadcast system, sirens, tsunami alert center, etc.
_x__ Advanced – has resources, technological skill and good track record in detecting
past natural disasters
___ Fairly advanced – has resources, but not a stellar track record in past natural
disasters
___ Has one in the nascent stages, heavily dependent on outside support
___ No system in place
How prepared is the government and security apparatus to recover from a natural
disaster?
___Well prepared – strong command and control, communication network, training and
equipment to advanced to deal with natural disaster, government/security can exercise
control over civil unrest
_x__Moderately prepared – government structures in place, training and equipment
adequate to deal with natural disaster, but command and control is sketchy and
government/security will likely have a difficult time in controlling civil unrest
___ Ill prepared – decision-making authority non-existent, little to no control over civil
unrest following natural disaster; command and control weak, officers are either running
to save themselves or among the first to loot following a natural disaster
How prepared are the emergency services in this country to respond to a natural disaster?
___ Well prepared – advanced medical facilities, training, transportation and
equipment to deal with a natural disaster, capable of quick response
__x_ Moderately prepared – adequate medical facilities, training, equipment,
transportation and communication network to deal with natural disaster, response
time relatively slow
___ Ill prepared – This is a developing country that has inadequate medical facilities,
training, transportation and equipment to deal with a natural disaster
Mexico is again somewhere in between – moderately prepared, but with a better response
time.
Resistance of Supply Chain Infrastructure to Natural Disasters
How resilient is the national supply chain infrastructure to natural disasters? (focus is on
availability and proximity of primary and alternate logistics to mitigate impact of natural
disaster and keep the supply chain moving)
___Country has complete redundancies in infrastructure network (air, rail, sea and
truck) to ensure minimal to zero delays in supply chain due to natural disaster
__x_Country has adequate redundancies in infrastructure network – at least two
alternate modes of transport to ship goods in and out and within country.
___Country has minimal redundancy, relies almost exclusively on primary
infrastructure to transport goods
Social and Political Stability
What’s the likelihood that significant civil unrest will erupt after a natural disaster?
___ Low chance – Security apparatus is strong. Protest in this country either
suppressed or takes place in the form of an angry letter to government
_x__ Moderate chance – This country has an adequate security apparatus to contain
rioters and looters; Protests and looting can occur, but will be contained.
___ Extremely likely – Civil unrest will be severe; Law and order situation is best
described as chaotic. People in this country are extremely prone to rioting and
looting. Protest will be disruptive enough to shut down businesses and possibly ports
What’s the likelihood that the government will become the casualty of a natural disaster
and the country experiences a government turnover?
__x_ Very unlikely - Government and security apparatus stable enough to contain
civil unrest and political opposition
___ Small chance – Security apparatus may have its act together to contain public
protest, but a natural disaster could give the opposition a fair opportunity to threaten
the government’s political standing
___ Moderate chance – Likelihood of civil unrest and strength of political opposition
could throw the government into crisis mode
___ High chance – This is a highly unstable government system in which turnovers
occur frequently. Fallout from a natural disaster would almost certainly kick the
government out of power.