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Hypothetical Effects of Nuclear War
Eric Biehn
Math 89S, Duke University
November 1, 2016
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Introduction
In 2009, President Obama stated that “one nuclear weapon [exploding] in one city - be it
New York, Moscow, Islamabad, Mumbai, Tokyo, Tel Aviv, Paris or Prague - could kill
hundreds of thousands of people. And no matter where it happens, there is no end to
what the consequences might be - for our global safety, security, our society, our
economy, to our ultimate survival” [2]. It is clear that nuclear weapons pose a very real
and frightening threat to our modern society. Therefore, it is important not to ignore the
possibility of this catastrophic situation. Reactions and effects of a nuclear attack must
be analyzed in order to prepare for such a situation. This paper deals with many
hypothetical situations that could occur in the event of a nuclear attack. A nuclear
attack could have such a wide range of effects that it is almost impossible to pinpoint
specific and exact outcomes. As a result, many of the ideas discussed in this paper are
hypothetical scenarios that are based on facts, studies, current knowledge, and
examples from the previous atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Direct Effects of an Attack
There have been various studies proposing the effects of a nuclear bomb on a large,
urban city. A notable example is “Article 36”, which studied the humanitarian
consequences of a nuclear detonation of the city of Manchester in the United
Kingdom. This particular study dealt with a 100 kiloton warhead, which they felt was an
accurate representation of the current nuclear weapons available today. The study
concluded that 81,000 people would be directly killed, while 212,000 people would be
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injured [2]. It would be difficult to get aid and resources, because emergency services
would be affected by the lack of communication, staff, and power needed to operate
emergency facilities. In addition, many hospitals and police stations would crumble due
to the blast, thus causing further problems. The immediate radiation released from the
bomb would directly affect everyone in a 2 kilometer radius [2]. This particular study did
not investigate the effects of the nuclear fallout, however it noted that it would definitely
contribute to a large amount of fatalities.
It is important to note that this study is a conservative estimate, because in the event of
a nuclear assault, the attackers would most likely use more than one nuclear warhead if
they are willing to resort to nuclear force. It is clear that the physical effects regarding
the loss of life and materials would be devastating. In addition, worldwide and regional
factors would be greatly impacted.
Economic Impacts
A nuclear attack would have a global impact on the economy. The entire world is
connected through its economy and trade. The global economic collapse of 2008
illustrated how dependent separate economies are on each other. The financial sector
would take a toll as a result of a nuclear attack. An immense amount of funding would
immediately be allocated to rescue missions, evacuations, decontamination efforts,
etc. The costs will continue to increase as time goes on and will peak decades after the
actual attack. There will be many disability claims and higher health sector costs, which
will make recovery a long-term issue [1]. In the Ukraine, 5-7% of government spending
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is still dedicated to programs and benefits resulting from the Chernobyl nuclear
accident.
A likely target for an attack would be New York City. The results of this attack would be
catastrophic, as it is theorized to have economic consequences of about 10 trillion
dollars. This is equivalent to the United States’ yearly gross domestic product (GDP)
[1]. Nuclear war would cause a severe loss of life and destruction of resources
worldwide, and the target would most likely be a major city or urban development. By
the year 2030, it is expected that around two-thirds of the world’s population will live in
cities [1]. Cities are the center of economic growth, and about 80% of the world’s GDP
is generated in cities [3].
A nuclear detonation in an urban area would additionally affect the industries within that
area. After the attack, many people will be suffering from physical injury, disease,
psychological trauma, unemployment, and a variety of other factors. Thus, the
productivity for the country will be greatly lowered. Many industrial elements are
dependent on each other. If certain elements crumble, they will directly affect
others. For example, if there is a lack of fuel, it would affect transportation because
transporting goods would be expensive and difficult. A lack of transportation would
make shipping food much more difficult, therefore it would affect the population’s ability
to get food. This is one of the many scenarios for how various aspects of the economy
intertwine with one another.
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Figure 1
This diagram shows how many industrial practices are interwoven and dependent on
each other.
In addition, much of the city’s infrastructure would be ruined. Roads, trains, and other
methods of transportation would be demolished. Infrastructure is an essential element
to an economy. It directly affects transportation, trade, communication, water, and
networks for fuel. Thus, major damage to the infrastructure would have a severe impact
on the economy.
If a city was hit by a nuclear bomb, its power would be cut off. A single nuclear weapon
exploding at a high altitude can lead to an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) [4]. Power
grids would pick up the EMP, which would cause a spike in voltage for the equipment
drawing power at the time of the explosion [6]. This is similar to how the voltage rises
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during a lightning strike; however, it would be 100 times faster which would make the
surge protectors useless. Also, the electronic component could pick up the pulse and
generate internally induced currents, which would result in physical damage to the
equipment [6].
Figure 2
This image shows the possible coverage of Electromagnetic Pulse effects based on the
altitude of nuclear detonation.
In the event of an EMP, the region the blast affected would be blacked out almost
instantly because the radiation caused by the explosion would travel at the speed of
light. The interruption of the typical flow of communication and data flow would greatly
harm the economy [4]. American society depends on the power systems, electronics,
and information systems that would be ruined as a result of the EMP. It would affect
means of getting food, water, and medical care to the citizens; trade; and the production
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of goods and services. Many people would die in urban settings because of the lack of
basic necessities to sustain life. It would also have economic implications. For
example, ATM’s would stop working, and traders would not be able to access the
NASDAQ electronic exchange, thus affecting the local and global economy.
The United States has dealt with a smaller scale blackout that can be compared to the
potential effects of a nuclear-related EMP. The Northeast Blackout that occurred in
August of 2003 involved a loss of power for over 50 million people as a result of a loss
of a 61,800 Mw electrical load [4]. Even though the blackout only lasted a few hours, it
was estimated to cost up to 10 billion dollars as a result of the food spoilage, disrupted
supply delivery, blackout protection costs, and much more. This blackout is only a
minor comparison to what could happen in the result of an Electromagnetic Pulse
blackout.
Environmental Impact
The radioactive fallout from a nuclear attack would affect the environment and health of
a country, especially regarding food supply. A study done in 2012 determined that a
nuclear war between India and Pakistan would lead to a decrease in rainfall for some of
the most important grain growing regions such as North America and Eurasia. This
would lead to a 50% decline in Chinese wheat production in the first year, 21% decline
of Chinese rice production over four years, and a 20% decline of US corn production
over five years [7]. The unavoidable spike in food prices would make food unattainable
for millions of people around the world who could not afford it. Over 215 million people
would become malnourished as a result of their inability to purchase food [7]. This
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hypothetical war between India and Pakistan is also theorized to cause 6.6 teragrams of
black carbon aerosol particles to rise into the troposphere. A ModelE study from the
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies found that, “A global average surface cooling
of -1.25°C persists for years, and after a decade the cooling is still -0.50°C” [7]. This
cooling would be a result of the particles in the troposphere preventing sunlight from
warming the Earth to the extent it does now. A nuclear attack would have a global
impact on the environment that would have serious consequences for years to come.
Social Impact
An overlooked result of nuclear warfare is the social impacts that would result from a
potential attack, and there are many hypothetical examples that can be analyzed. A
nuclear attack would cause a lot of distress for a population. After the initial phase of
sorrow and mourning passes, this sadness could eventually turn into anger. Citizens
will feel the need to retaliate against the country or group that initiated the first attack,
and this could lead to displacing this anger towards innocent people of a particular race
or identity [9]. Similar to the American mistrust towards the Japanese during World War
II, individuals could become hostile towards people who were not actually associated
with the attack. For example, if a Muslim extremist group got their hands on a nuclear
weapon and used it on the United States, many U.S. Muslims would be unfairly
persecuted and discriminated against because people would feel the need to blame
others for this atrocity.
If a nuclear warhead were to explode in a city, many public officials could be killed or
severely injured, thus leading to slower decision making. In addition, there would be
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much political discourse among the figures that survived the attack. It is very likely that
some of the political figures would be sheltered and therefore manage to survive the
attacks. This could result in outrage from the general public who lost loved ones above
the ground. As a result, a lot of political effort may be put into crowd control and
preventing violent acts of protest, and less time would be spent on policies regarding
help and aid [9].
There is a good chance that the population would become fragmented and form into
groups that would each have their own unique ways of coping with the disaster. This
could include people of similar religious backgrounds, cultural backgrounds, or
ideological thinking. The cooperation that would be needed to share the limited
resources among these groups may be unrealistic [9]. Thus, this post-impact society
could lead to hostility among citizens of the affected country.
Psychological Impact
Many psychological effects of a nuclear attack can be hypothesized by the actual
reaction of the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki after the United States’ attack at the
tail end of World War II. A major psychological impact that was observed after the
attack on Japan was the shift from normal life to overwhelming exposure to death [5]. In
order to deal with this horrible event, many citizens closed themselves off from the
reality of the situation. They used this as a defense mechanism and were not as
productive because they were grieving and dealing with this tragedy. In Nagasaki, there
was a high amount of mental stress exhibited by those who experienced the
bombing. Patients exposed to radiation had higher levels of neurosis compared to
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those who did not [8]. Many patients stated that they had physical damage when there
were actually no traces of physical harm on their body. This is known as Deere’s
hypothesis, which is a post-war study suggesting that trauma involving physical
suffering is more likely to lead to somatization than those without trauma [8]. In today’s
modern era, the mass media would without a doubt cover the fallout of this attack,
which would leave little privacy for the victims and their families causing them to relive
the tragedy.
A nuclear attack would leave a psychological scar that would take years for the world to
overcome.
Conclusion
When it comes to hypothesizing on an act of nuclear aggression, there are a wide range
of possibilities and scenarios that can be analyzed. The effects of an attack would lead
to a myriad of outcomes including extreme loss of life, economic impacts, environmental
impacts, social impacts, and psychological impacts. This is an issue that is difficult to
talk about, and many people choose to avoid it. However, there is a possibility of a
nuclear threat in our society today, and we have to acknowledge the severe
consequences that would result from it.
Sources
“Economic Impacts of Nuclear Weapons.” Article 36. March 2015. Web.1 Nov. 2016. [1]
“Manchester Detonation.” Article 36. Feb. 2015. Web. 1 Nov. 2016. [2]
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"Urban Development Overview." Urban Development Overview. World Bank,10 Oct.
2016. Web. 1 Nov. 2016. [3]
Foster, John. “EMP Attack.” 2004. Web.1 Nov. 2016. [4]
Lifton, Robert. “Psychological Effects of the Atomic Bombing.” Daedalus. 1963. Print. 1
Nov. 2016. [5]
Cochrane, Hal. “The Consequences of Nuclear War.” National Academy of Sciences.
1986. Web. 1 Nov. 2016. [6]
Helfand, Ira. “Nuclear Famine.” Physicians for Social Responsibility. November 2013.
Web. 1 Nov. 2016. [7]
Yeo, Dana. “Psychological Fallout of Atomic Bomb in Nagasaki.” Winter 2013. Web. 1
Nov. 2016. [8]
Galtung, Johan. “Social and Cultural Implications of Nuclear War.” April 1986. Web. 1
Nov. 2016. [9]