Download Ryssland och WTO

Oil, int’l macro and geopolitics
Torbjörn Becker
Director, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE)
@ Stockholm School of Economics
www.hhs.se/site
[email protected]
Points to discuss

A few notes on supply and demand
◦ Global warming, carbon taxes etc?
◦ ”Macro is back”

Traditional reserves/production and
demand – who are the major players on
both sides
◦ ”Winners” and ”loosers” of shale gas/oil
◦ BRICS and energy
Emerging markets overtaking developed
countries in terms of economic size
 Russia

”Simply” Supply and Demand but…

Short vs long run
◦ TK focused on structural factors that are important
for long-run price trends (climate policies?)
◦ ”Short” run factors still create enormous variation in
prices with uncertain forecasts – link with macro

Partial vs general equilibrium
◦ First-round price effects from new supply sources and
reduced demand will affect economic activity and also
incentives for future investment in both enhancing
supply and reducing demand
◦ Emerging markets will be very important for how this
evolves, both on supply and demand side
Useful forecasts?
“Fluctuations in economic activity and in the outlook are
the primary determinant of short-term commodity price movements,
with some caveats. …. commodity-wide factors have mainly reflected
common macroeconomic developments” IMF 2012
Oil supply (2012)
Oil demand (2012)
Growth forecast
(2011-2017 USD BNP, IMF)
China
India
Russia
Turkey
USA
Brazil
Lithuania
Mexico
Latvia
Estonia
Argen na
SouthAfrica
Poland
Norway
Iceland
Sweden
Hungary
Japan
Ireland
Germany
Czech Republic
Spain
Italy
Portugal
Greece
Tillväxt>10%
Tillväxt>4,5%
Tillväxt>3%
Tillväxt<1%
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Oil reserves
Gas reserves
“Winners” and “Loosers”?
Time perspective crucial
 Transition processes triggered by oil price
swings are likely to be messy in countries
where autocratic political power
structures are based on extraction
revenues
 How many oil nations can develop by just
extracting oil?
 Can Russia catch up with West just by
extraction?

Oil supply vs political freedom
Political rights/Civil liberties, 1 is best, 7 worst
(Freedom house)
7/7
6/6
?/?
4/4
5/5
6/6
2/2
4/5
6/5
5/5
1/1
1/1(?)
1/1
WB: “Subsoil wealth of nations”
($/capita)
Total wealth of nations ($/capita)
Putin’s Russia
Oil price drives Russian GDP
Russian exports, all about extraction
Russian government budget, half is
oil and gas
Medvedev’s “awakeing”




The crisis made the dependence on oil and gas and
need for reforms obvious
”Russia forward!” in Sept 2009
Agenda
◦ Innovations (Skolkovo=Silicon Valley)
◦ Energy efficiency
◦ International financial center
◦ Fight corruption, Law and order
◦ E-government
Putin and higher oil prices has changed the
sense of urgency for reforms
Thanks!
Torbjörn Becker
Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE)/ Östekonomiska
institutet vid Handelshögskolan i Stockholm
www.hhs.se/site
[email protected]