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IACCF 2007 Mar/7
UK BRAG Research Priorities
Report from Richard Ferris, JNCC
Background
The conservation of biodiversity in the UK (and, indeed, across Europe) will have a more
fluid context as a result of climate change (Brooker and Young, 2006). There will be changes
in community and habitat composition, and these are likely to have important, possibly
unforeseen consequences for ecosystem functioning and, in turn, provision of some goods
and services on which we depend.
If species are to survive under changing conditions, then landscapes will need to be suitably
permeable so as to enable them to move northwards or upwards, tracking their “climate
envelopes” or the movement of other species upon which they are dependent. There is a
lack of clarity over what actions we need to take in order to create such permeability, and
whether these would be the same or similar for all species.
The threat of climate change is driving adaptation responses in many sectors, most notably
in agriculture (e.g. the introduction of drought tolerant varieties). It is important that we
understand the impacts of adaptation activities on biodiversity, and that biodiversity
considerations are incorporated at the outset of any actions.
Changes in the timing of biological processes, productivity and species distribution have
already been detected in marine ecosystems in response to climate change. These
responses show regional variability, with complex patterns of species movement and
response to climate drivers. Climate change can be expected to result in further changes in
the length of the growing season, community composition and species ranges. Trophic
disruption is likely as a result of changes to timing of biological processes, and may have
serious impacts throughout foodchains. Coastal ecosystems are expected to change in
response to increased storminess and rises in sea levels (e.g. erosion of existing coastal
habitats).
Methodology
Two approaches were taken to highlight knowledge gaps and identify the research needed
to address these:
1. a one-day workshop to identify key themes; and
2. follow-up discussions and refinement, conducted by e-mail
Eleven broad areas of research (research programmes) were identified as key to advancing
our understanding of climate change and its impacts. These research programmes are
broader than research projects and often combine several of the suggested projects
together. Prioritisation and urgency were assessed using a scoring system, to arrive at the
figures shown in the table, below.
1. addresses immediate obstacles to development or implementation of adaptation
policy
2. is strategic research relevant to longer term policy development or guidance
3. is cross-cutting – enables significant integration with other sectors e.g. agriculture,
water, energy
4. adds value to other research initiatives e.g. European projects;
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IACCF 2007 Mar/7
5. is tractable – what is the likelihood of producing outcomes to influence policy or
management, and
6. the timescale for project work
The scoring for the criteria 1-5 were (H) high, (M) medium or (L) low. These were combined
to produce a single prioritisation score (Priority)
The scoring for criterion no. 6, timescale (Urgency), was assessed as (U) Urgent – within the
next 3 years, (M) medium – within the next 6 years, (L) Long – long term 6-10 years.
Table of Results
Research Programme
Priority Urgency
Assessing the effectiveness of landscape-scale initiatives for adaptation to climate change
1.
Impact of future weather patterns on priority habitats
M
U
2.
Review of effectiveness of implementation of landscape-scale initiatives
H
U
M/H
U
Wetland, coastal zone and marine adaptation to climate change
3.
Investigation to identify constraints and opportunities and provide
recommendations for optimisation of adaptation to climate change in coastal
zones
4.
Managing the marine environment in response to climate change identifying the options
?
U
5.
The impacts of hydrological and geomorphological change due to climate
upon freshwater ecology
H
U
6.
Managed retreat
H
U
7.
Assessment of the implications of ocean acidification and climate change in
respect of the impact on key habitats, species and ecosystem function
M/H
U
8.
Understanding changes to sub-tidal marine ecosystems that are a
consequence of climate change
H
U
L/M
L
The impact of climate change on ecosystem goods and services
9.
Providing evidence for sustainable policy making in an era of climate
change
Monitoring the impacts of climate change and atmospheric pollution on biodiversity
10. Targeted Monitoring of climate change and Atmospheric Pollution Impacts
on Biodiversity
H
U
11. Indicators of climate change impacts and adaptation
L
L
M
M
Indicator Species
12. Development of headline indicators of climate change impacts on
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IACCF 2007 Mar/7
biodiversity
13. Responses of marine biodiversity to climate change using inter-tidal
indicators
H
U
M/H
U
H
U
M/H
U
Review of conservation targets
14. Conservation Targets in UK SPAs, SACs and BAPs in light of existing
climate change
Soils, Sediments and Resilience
15. Climate changes and soil biodiversity
16. The functional role of biota in sediments
Climate Change and Phenology, distribution, population dynamics, breeding success with
predictive mapping
17. Modelling impacts and testing the accuracy of predicted faunal responses to
climate change
M
M
18. Species’ autecology and distribution in response to climate change
?
U
19. Long-range conservation of British lower plant diversity
?
U
M/H
U
21. Planning for urban biodiversity under climate change (PUB-dUCC)
M
?
22. Climate change impact on landscape permeability and wildlife corridors
H
U
23. What adaptation works for biodiversity?
H
U
?
?
25. Carbon dioxide: feedbacks in natural and anthropogenic systems and
implications for adaptation and mitigation strategies
H
U
26. Integrated projections of climate change, atmospheric pollution and
terrestrial ecosystem response.
?
?
Planning and implementation of adaptation strategies
20. Site / Habitat management and climate change adaptation
Genetic conservation
24. Will local genetic adaptation within species limit adaptation to climate
change?
Atmospheric Chemistry and Pollution
Programme details and priorities
Assessing the effectiveness of landscape-scale initiatives for adaptation to climate change
We need to understand how the direct impact of future weather conditions, brought on by
climate change, will affect specific habitats of conservation importance; in order to enable
suitable management responses to be developed. In addition, a better understanding is
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IACCF 2007 Mar/7
needed of effective spatial planning measures to enable biodiversity to survive and thrive in
changed climates and perhaps in changed locations.


Predict the impact of future weather patterns on priority habitats;
Review the effectiveness of implementation of landscape-scale initiatives.
Wetland, coastal zone and marine adaptation to climate change
There is a need to identify and develop the tools that make it possible to manage wetland
and coastal ecosystems in the face of climate change. Mechanisms are needed to integrate
consideration for climate change with management of human activities, identification of
conservation sites, and how we monitor, assess and report on the status of habitats, species
and ecosystems. In order to develop an appropriate management strategy to counteract
climate change in streams, rivers and lakes, further consideration needs to be given to the
impacts of (summer) low flow and more frequent flood events, as well as changes in water
temperature. An improved understanding of the key mechanisms involved in creating
suitable managed retreat sites will improve our ability to predict the biodiversity value of
proposed managed retreat sites. An assessment is needed of the combined effects of ocean
acidification and climate change, with the development of a composite index to track change.
What impact is climate change having on the marine environment, in isolation from
anthropogenic impacts, and how can we predict the consequences of climate change for key
habitats and species of nature conservation and economic importance?






Identify constraints and opportunities and provide recommendations for optimisation
of adaptation to climate change in coastal zones;
Identify the options for managing the marine environment in response to climate
change;
Investigate the implications of climate change on wetlands;
Improve understanding of the biodiversity impacts of managed retreat
practices;
Assess the implications of ocean acidification and climate change in respect of the
impact on key habitats, species and ecosystem function;
Improve understanding of changes to sub-tidal marine ecosystems that are a
consequence of climate change.
The impact of climate change on ecosystem goods and services
While it is accepted that climate change is happening, mechanisms must be found for
communicating the impacts to those sectors whose actions and reactions will affect
biodiversity, but that are attempting to move towards sustainability. We need to improve our
understanding of the impact of climate change on ecosystem functioning.

Provide evidence for sustainable policy making in an era of climate change.
Monitoring the impacts of climate change and atmospheric pollution on biodiversity
There is a need to detect the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and allow them to be
distinguished from the effects of air pollution and land management change. This work will
provide long term surveillance and data analysis of atmospheric pollution, climate change
and aspects of biodiversity on a series of sites across the UK, linked with existing ECN sites
and modelling programmes.
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IACCF 2007 Mar/7


Undertake targeted monitoring of climate change and atmospheric pollution
impacts on biodiversity;
Develop indicators of climate change impacts and adaptation.
Indicator Species
Multi-species indicators for monitoring responses of key taxa to climate change need to be
developed. We need to establish a monitoring network to continue long-term quantitative
time series and broad-scale quantitative and semi-quantitative surveys of intertidal indicator
species.


Develop headline indicators of climate change impacts on biodiversity;
Understand the responses of marine biodiversity to climate change using intertidal indicators.
Review of conservation targets
Conservation targets in SPAs, SACs and BAPs need to be reviewed in relation to climate
change, before developing tools for setting and helping to meet climate change-proofed
conservation targets. In order to do this, an assessment is needed as to whether recent
temperature increases have affected the abundance of species that are designated features
of protected sites.

Review conservation targets in UK SPAs, SACs and BAPs in light of existing climate
change.
Soils, Sediments and Resilience
The majority of terrestrial ecosystems depend upon processes in the soil. Despite the
importance of this area of research, we know relatively little about resilience. A parallel
project is needed to improve understanding of the function of freshwater and marine
ecosystems; addressing the role of sediments, their biodiversity, and the functions of the
communities within them.


Improve understanding of the impacts of climate changes on soil biodiversity;
Initiate research on the functional role of biota in sediments.
Climate Change and Phenology, distribution, population dynamics, breeding success with
predictive mapping
Research is needed to understand the mechanisms by which large-scale changes in
abundance are influenced and determined by climate change impacts on a species' biology;
e.g. this project could be used to predict changes in bird populations caused by broad-scale
habitat change arising as a result of climate change. In addition, there is a need for basic
knowledge of species distribution, population dynamics and breeding success; and these
results need to be related to climate change and then used to predict future changes.



Model impacts and test the accuracy of predicted faunal responses to climate
change;
Initiate studies on species’ autecology and distribution in response to climate change;
Establish strategies for the long-range conservation of British lower plant diversity.
Planning and implementation of adaptation strategies
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IACCF 2007 Mar/7
Practical approaches to habitat management need to be developed in order to make habitats
more resilient to the impacts of climate change. We need to determine methods for on-theground implementation of adaptation and test their effectiveness. Research with a specific
urban focus is required to establish the potential value of biodiversity at protected and nonprotected (e.g. green roofs) sites for economic, social and environmental purposes. A series
of case studies are needed to illustrate the impact of climate change on various species and
ecosystems. The results would feed into adaptation strategies used for the selected species
/ ecosystems and could act as a model for other species / ecosystems. There is a need to
bring together stakeholders to assess how practical theoretical suggestions for adaptation
really are. There is much ecological theory about the value of permeable landscapes and
corridors allowing species to move as a result of climate change and, while their value has
been assessed via models, there has been little experimental work on this topic.




Establish approaches to site/habitat management which allow adaptation to climate
change;
Improve planning for urban biodiversity under climate change;
Improve understanding of climate change impacts on landscape permeability
and wildlife corridors;
Evaluate which approaches to adaptation work for biodiversity?
Genetic conservation
Further molecular research remains to be undertaken, to establish which genotypes are
better able to adapt to climate change, e.g. in forestry, southerly species are better able to
adapt than northerly ones. One aim is to experimentally test whether populations in currently
colder parts of a species' range will be able to cope with climate change towards that found
in the warmer parts of its range.

Undertake research on whether local genetic adaptation within species limits
adaptation to climate change?
Atmospheric Chemistry and Pollution
There is a need for a review of the existing evidence base, from which it will be possible to
identify knowledge gaps to be filled through new research. Cross-sectoral research is
necessary to provide self-consistent projections of climate and atmospheric pollutant
concentrations, as part of a strategy to facilitate future policy-relevant work.


Improve understanding of carbon dioxide feedbacks in natural and
anthropogenic systems, and implications for adaptation and mitigation
strategies;
Undertake integrated projections of climate change, atmospheric pollution and
terrestrial ecosystem response.
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