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IACCF 2007 Mar/7 UK BRAG Research Priorities Report from Richard Ferris, JNCC Background The conservation of biodiversity in the UK (and, indeed, across Europe) will have a more fluid context as a result of climate change (Brooker and Young, 2006). There will be changes in community and habitat composition, and these are likely to have important, possibly unforeseen consequences for ecosystem functioning and, in turn, provision of some goods and services on which we depend. If species are to survive under changing conditions, then landscapes will need to be suitably permeable so as to enable them to move northwards or upwards, tracking their “climate envelopes” or the movement of other species upon which they are dependent. There is a lack of clarity over what actions we need to take in order to create such permeability, and whether these would be the same or similar for all species. The threat of climate change is driving adaptation responses in many sectors, most notably in agriculture (e.g. the introduction of drought tolerant varieties). It is important that we understand the impacts of adaptation activities on biodiversity, and that biodiversity considerations are incorporated at the outset of any actions. Changes in the timing of biological processes, productivity and species distribution have already been detected in marine ecosystems in response to climate change. These responses show regional variability, with complex patterns of species movement and response to climate drivers. Climate change can be expected to result in further changes in the length of the growing season, community composition and species ranges. Trophic disruption is likely as a result of changes to timing of biological processes, and may have serious impacts throughout foodchains. Coastal ecosystems are expected to change in response to increased storminess and rises in sea levels (e.g. erosion of existing coastal habitats). Methodology Two approaches were taken to highlight knowledge gaps and identify the research needed to address these: 1. a one-day workshop to identify key themes; and 2. follow-up discussions and refinement, conducted by e-mail Eleven broad areas of research (research programmes) were identified as key to advancing our understanding of climate change and its impacts. These research programmes are broader than research projects and often combine several of the suggested projects together. Prioritisation and urgency were assessed using a scoring system, to arrive at the figures shown in the table, below. 1. addresses immediate obstacles to development or implementation of adaptation policy 2. is strategic research relevant to longer term policy development or guidance 3. is cross-cutting – enables significant integration with other sectors e.g. agriculture, water, energy 4. adds value to other research initiatives e.g. European projects; 1 IACCF 2007 Mar/7 5. is tractable – what is the likelihood of producing outcomes to influence policy or management, and 6. the timescale for project work The scoring for the criteria 1-5 were (H) high, (M) medium or (L) low. These were combined to produce a single prioritisation score (Priority) The scoring for criterion no. 6, timescale (Urgency), was assessed as (U) Urgent – within the next 3 years, (M) medium – within the next 6 years, (L) Long – long term 6-10 years. Table of Results Research Programme Priority Urgency Assessing the effectiveness of landscape-scale initiatives for adaptation to climate change 1. Impact of future weather patterns on priority habitats M U 2. Review of effectiveness of implementation of landscape-scale initiatives H U M/H U Wetland, coastal zone and marine adaptation to climate change 3. Investigation to identify constraints and opportunities and provide recommendations for optimisation of adaptation to climate change in coastal zones 4. Managing the marine environment in response to climate change identifying the options ? U 5. The impacts of hydrological and geomorphological change due to climate upon freshwater ecology H U 6. Managed retreat H U 7. Assessment of the implications of ocean acidification and climate change in respect of the impact on key habitats, species and ecosystem function M/H U 8. Understanding changes to sub-tidal marine ecosystems that are a consequence of climate change H U L/M L The impact of climate change on ecosystem goods and services 9. Providing evidence for sustainable policy making in an era of climate change Monitoring the impacts of climate change and atmospheric pollution on biodiversity 10. Targeted Monitoring of climate change and Atmospheric Pollution Impacts on Biodiversity H U 11. Indicators of climate change impacts and adaptation L L M M Indicator Species 12. Development of headline indicators of climate change impacts on 2 IACCF 2007 Mar/7 biodiversity 13. Responses of marine biodiversity to climate change using inter-tidal indicators H U M/H U H U M/H U Review of conservation targets 14. Conservation Targets in UK SPAs, SACs and BAPs in light of existing climate change Soils, Sediments and Resilience 15. Climate changes and soil biodiversity 16. The functional role of biota in sediments Climate Change and Phenology, distribution, population dynamics, breeding success with predictive mapping 17. Modelling impacts and testing the accuracy of predicted faunal responses to climate change M M 18. Species’ autecology and distribution in response to climate change ? U 19. Long-range conservation of British lower plant diversity ? U M/H U 21. Planning for urban biodiversity under climate change (PUB-dUCC) M ? 22. Climate change impact on landscape permeability and wildlife corridors H U 23. What adaptation works for biodiversity? H U ? ? 25. Carbon dioxide: feedbacks in natural and anthropogenic systems and implications for adaptation and mitigation strategies H U 26. Integrated projections of climate change, atmospheric pollution and terrestrial ecosystem response. ? ? Planning and implementation of adaptation strategies 20. Site / Habitat management and climate change adaptation Genetic conservation 24. Will local genetic adaptation within species limit adaptation to climate change? Atmospheric Chemistry and Pollution Programme details and priorities Assessing the effectiveness of landscape-scale initiatives for adaptation to climate change We need to understand how the direct impact of future weather conditions, brought on by climate change, will affect specific habitats of conservation importance; in order to enable suitable management responses to be developed. In addition, a better understanding is 3 IACCF 2007 Mar/7 needed of effective spatial planning measures to enable biodiversity to survive and thrive in changed climates and perhaps in changed locations. Predict the impact of future weather patterns on priority habitats; Review the effectiveness of implementation of landscape-scale initiatives. Wetland, coastal zone and marine adaptation to climate change There is a need to identify and develop the tools that make it possible to manage wetland and coastal ecosystems in the face of climate change. Mechanisms are needed to integrate consideration for climate change with management of human activities, identification of conservation sites, and how we monitor, assess and report on the status of habitats, species and ecosystems. In order to develop an appropriate management strategy to counteract climate change in streams, rivers and lakes, further consideration needs to be given to the impacts of (summer) low flow and more frequent flood events, as well as changes in water temperature. An improved understanding of the key mechanisms involved in creating suitable managed retreat sites will improve our ability to predict the biodiversity value of proposed managed retreat sites. An assessment is needed of the combined effects of ocean acidification and climate change, with the development of a composite index to track change. What impact is climate change having on the marine environment, in isolation from anthropogenic impacts, and how can we predict the consequences of climate change for key habitats and species of nature conservation and economic importance? Identify constraints and opportunities and provide recommendations for optimisation of adaptation to climate change in coastal zones; Identify the options for managing the marine environment in response to climate change; Investigate the implications of climate change on wetlands; Improve understanding of the biodiversity impacts of managed retreat practices; Assess the implications of ocean acidification and climate change in respect of the impact on key habitats, species and ecosystem function; Improve understanding of changes to sub-tidal marine ecosystems that are a consequence of climate change. The impact of climate change on ecosystem goods and services While it is accepted that climate change is happening, mechanisms must be found for communicating the impacts to those sectors whose actions and reactions will affect biodiversity, but that are attempting to move towards sustainability. We need to improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Provide evidence for sustainable policy making in an era of climate change. Monitoring the impacts of climate change and atmospheric pollution on biodiversity There is a need to detect the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and allow them to be distinguished from the effects of air pollution and land management change. This work will provide long term surveillance and data analysis of atmospheric pollution, climate change and aspects of biodiversity on a series of sites across the UK, linked with existing ECN sites and modelling programmes. 4 IACCF 2007 Mar/7 Undertake targeted monitoring of climate change and atmospheric pollution impacts on biodiversity; Develop indicators of climate change impacts and adaptation. Indicator Species Multi-species indicators for monitoring responses of key taxa to climate change need to be developed. We need to establish a monitoring network to continue long-term quantitative time series and broad-scale quantitative and semi-quantitative surveys of intertidal indicator species. Develop headline indicators of climate change impacts on biodiversity; Understand the responses of marine biodiversity to climate change using intertidal indicators. Review of conservation targets Conservation targets in SPAs, SACs and BAPs need to be reviewed in relation to climate change, before developing tools for setting and helping to meet climate change-proofed conservation targets. In order to do this, an assessment is needed as to whether recent temperature increases have affected the abundance of species that are designated features of protected sites. Review conservation targets in UK SPAs, SACs and BAPs in light of existing climate change. Soils, Sediments and Resilience The majority of terrestrial ecosystems depend upon processes in the soil. Despite the importance of this area of research, we know relatively little about resilience. A parallel project is needed to improve understanding of the function of freshwater and marine ecosystems; addressing the role of sediments, their biodiversity, and the functions of the communities within them. Improve understanding of the impacts of climate changes on soil biodiversity; Initiate research on the functional role of biota in sediments. Climate Change and Phenology, distribution, population dynamics, breeding success with predictive mapping Research is needed to understand the mechanisms by which large-scale changes in abundance are influenced and determined by climate change impacts on a species' biology; e.g. this project could be used to predict changes in bird populations caused by broad-scale habitat change arising as a result of climate change. In addition, there is a need for basic knowledge of species distribution, population dynamics and breeding success; and these results need to be related to climate change and then used to predict future changes. Model impacts and test the accuracy of predicted faunal responses to climate change; Initiate studies on species’ autecology and distribution in response to climate change; Establish strategies for the long-range conservation of British lower plant diversity. Planning and implementation of adaptation strategies 5 IACCF 2007 Mar/7 Practical approaches to habitat management need to be developed in order to make habitats more resilient to the impacts of climate change. We need to determine methods for on-theground implementation of adaptation and test their effectiveness. Research with a specific urban focus is required to establish the potential value of biodiversity at protected and nonprotected (e.g. green roofs) sites for economic, social and environmental purposes. A series of case studies are needed to illustrate the impact of climate change on various species and ecosystems. The results would feed into adaptation strategies used for the selected species / ecosystems and could act as a model for other species / ecosystems. There is a need to bring together stakeholders to assess how practical theoretical suggestions for adaptation really are. There is much ecological theory about the value of permeable landscapes and corridors allowing species to move as a result of climate change and, while their value has been assessed via models, there has been little experimental work on this topic. Establish approaches to site/habitat management which allow adaptation to climate change; Improve planning for urban biodiversity under climate change; Improve understanding of climate change impacts on landscape permeability and wildlife corridors; Evaluate which approaches to adaptation work for biodiversity? Genetic conservation Further molecular research remains to be undertaken, to establish which genotypes are better able to adapt to climate change, e.g. in forestry, southerly species are better able to adapt than northerly ones. One aim is to experimentally test whether populations in currently colder parts of a species' range will be able to cope with climate change towards that found in the warmer parts of its range. Undertake research on whether local genetic adaptation within species limits adaptation to climate change? Atmospheric Chemistry and Pollution There is a need for a review of the existing evidence base, from which it will be possible to identify knowledge gaps to be filled through new research. Cross-sectoral research is necessary to provide self-consistent projections of climate and atmospheric pollutant concentrations, as part of a strategy to facilitate future policy-relevant work. Improve understanding of carbon dioxide feedbacks in natural and anthropogenic systems, and implications for adaptation and mitigation strategies; Undertake integrated projections of climate change, atmospheric pollution and terrestrial ecosystem response. 6