Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
ODD MODEL PARAMETERS CARIBOU AND WOLF PREDATOR PREY MODELING Craig Kasemodel & Gil Santos Bautista CS699 Agent Based Modeling and NetLogo Caribou Density 30K per 10000 sq mi 23K per 10000 sq mi 3000 per 1000 sq miles other research estimates = .4 caribou/sq km .5 caribou / sq km .1 to 1.5 caribou / sq km Wolf Density 7 per 1000 sq km 21 per 1000 sq km 2.6 to 10 per 1000 sq km approximately 7-10 wolves per pack Wolf Predation Rates (biomass equivalent to one adult moose) Summer Winter 1 kill / 7-16 days / pack 1 kill / 5-11 days / pack Winter kill rate = if 4 kills / 8 days / pack then 1 kill / 2-3 days / pack Ungulate kills averaged 4.6 caribou / wolf / 100 days 5.3 kg of available food/wolf/day In areas where moose are present; when caribou densities were <200/1,000 sq km; wolves switched to preying on resident moose Caribou Weights 350-500 pounds / bull 175-250 pounds / cow Calories per Caribou 130 kcal per 100 grams of caribou (compared to a moose at 100 kcal per 100 grams of moose) other estimates of the biomass energy of a caribou 5.5 million Kcal per caribou Wolves within the range of the Western Arctic Caribou Herd killed 6-7% of this caribou population annually. WAC Population ~ 450,000 caribou over 350,000 sq km for density of 1.5 caribou/sq km Valkenburg et. al. (1996) found no clear relationship between caribou : wolf ratios or caribou equivalents : wolf ratio and caribou growth rate. There is appears to be a slight density-dependent predation in small caribou herds but the growth rate of caribou herds is more dependent upon stochastic environmental factors (long severe winters) rather than on caribou density. Changed weather patterns increase the vulnerability of caribou to predation Stochastic weather events interact with predation and nutrition to limit herd size within a range of densities Nu = Upper bounds of caribou population Nl = Lower bounds of caribou population N = number of caribou Nu Nl N = f (Amount of suitable habitat, Length of good weather, Length of bad weather, Interactions of predators, and availability of alternate prey) “At the upper and lower bounds of the caribou populations, the number of caribou in any given Alaskan caribou herd is a function of amount of suitable habitat, Length of good weather, Length of bad weather, Interactions of predators, and availability of alternate prey. Factors in Caribou Population: general density dependence, nutrition, predation, weather, harvest, immigration, habitat loss/quality Model is missing: stochastic weather effects, black bears, brown bears, low density dependence equilibrium, caribou calf mortality & survival, wolf mortality & survival, lichen availability & quality, human harvest & disturbance, & REFERENCES: Alaska Wildlife Notebook Series, Alaska Department of Fish and Game. (n.d.). Retrieved October 12, 2012, from http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=educators.notebookseries Ballard, W. B., Ayres, L. A., Krausman, P. R., Reed, D. J., & Fancy, S. G. (1997). Ecology of Wolves in Relation to a Migratory Caribou Herd in Northwest Alaska. Wildlife Monographs, (135), 3–47. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3830776 Ballard, W. B., Jackson S. Whitman, & Gardner, C. L. (1987). Ecology of an Exploited Wolf Population in South-Central Alaska. Wildlife Monographs, (98), 3–54. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3830566 Carlos, A., & Lewis, F. (2010). Commerce by a Frozen Sea: Native Americans and the European Fur Trade. University of Pennsylvania Press. Committee on Management of Wolf and Bear Populations in Alaska, & National Research Council. (1997). Wolves, Bears, and Their Prey in Alaska:Biological and Social Challenges in Wildlife Management. The National Academies Press. Retrieved from http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=5791 Gasaway, W. C., Stephenson, R. O., Davis, J. L., Shepherd, P. E. K., & Burris, O. E. (1983). Interrelationships of Wolves, Prey, and Man in Interior Alaska. Wildlife Monographs, (84), 1–50. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3830554 Haskell, S. P., & Ballard, W. B. (2007). Modeling the Western Arctic Caribou Herd During a Positive Growth Phase: Potential Effects of Wolves and Radiocollars. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 71(2), 619–627. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/4495224 Holleman, D. F., & Stephenson, R. O. (1981). Prey Selection and Consumption by Alaskan Wolves in Winter. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 45(3), 620–628. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3808695 Smith, E. A. (1991). Inujjuamiut Foraging Strategies: Evolutionary Ecology of an Arctic Hunting Economy. Transaction Publishers. Valkenburg, P, R A Sellers, RC Squibb, JD Woolington, AR Aderman, and BD Dale. 2003. (PDF 331 kB) Population dynamics of caribou herds in southwestern Alaska. Rangifer. 1996. Special Issue 14:131-142. Wildlife Management and Harvest Reports and Publications, Alaska Department of Fish and Game. (n.d.). Retrieved October 12, 2012, from http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=librarypublications.professionalwildlifep ubs