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Flood Investigation Report Special Focus Investigation – Flood implications for MOD locations DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a i Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 0.1 The frequency and level of flooding is increasing due the impact of climate change, and the risk associated with flooding is also increasing due to the increased value of land and buildings in vulnerable areas. As a consequence the MOD will be at increased risk from the effects of flooding. Certain locations will be at higher risk than others. • • • • Climate change in the UK is likely to be associated with an increased risk of severe flooding in low-lying and coastal areas and the return period of severe flooding events is likely to be significantly reduced. Fluvial flooding and raised groundwater levels are also likely to cause more flooding events as a consequence of climate change. Poor surface water drainage, particularly in built areas, will contribute to the extent of inland flooding. Flooding from overflowing sewers is also a concern, particularly for its implications on staff and local communities’ health and well-being. 0.2 The results of a study that cross references MOD site locations with the Environment Agency’s flood risk areas are presented here, with a discussion of additional flood risk factors. This work illustrates the issue of flood for MOD locations and draws attention to the requirement for a more structured approach to managing flood risk. 0.3 Implications for the MOD • • • • • • • • • 0.4 Loss of training areas / training capacity Public interest issues relating to military capability Damage and loss of infrastructure Health risks and Loss of life - flood deaths are primarily associated with flash floods, however drownings in rivers in the estate is also of concern for the MOD. Risk of death is also apparent from electrocution or carbon monoxide poisoning during flood clear up stages. Health risks from contamination of flood water (stored chemicals, munitions, oil, diesel, pesticides, sewage /effluent, etc.) Contaminated land - release of contaminants from flooded land Degradation of designated areas (biodiversity, cultural heritage) Estate restrictions on transferring MOD activities to areas where they have not previously been conducted Inconvenience / drain on investment Interruptions to power supplies Recommended MOD Responses Emergency plans Review and strengthen MOD Emergency plans and preparedness to mitigate the effects of floods. Risk Assessments Implement detailed risk assessments of the likely effects of a major flood of MOD lowlying areas. DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a ii Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report Staff skills Estates staff need to be trained with the appropriate skills to undertake and advise on these assessments. Future Military needs Further research into MOD locations and military needs and the employment of coastal engineering for coastal defences in association with the appropriate OGDs is required. The results from these investigations should be considered in all future site development and investment decisions. Information systems Extended use of Geographical Information Systems to take full account of flood risk factors should be made available in order to support flood risk assessments and investment planning. Wider effects The wider consequences of development need to be fully accounted for, such as increased runoff from areas of hard standing and development in the floodplain (less land available for infiltration by rainwater) or coastal erosion resulting from hard engineering. DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a iii Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report Contents Page 1 Introduction 1 2 Aim 2 3 Scope 2 4 Flood Zone Information 3 5 Method 4 6 Results 5 List of Figures: Figure A: Environment Agency Summary Map of Flood Probability in England and Wales Figure B: Map showing the spread and location of all MOD sites in Northern England and Scotland (sites shown as red areas). Figure C: Map showing the spread and location of all MOD sites in Wales, Southern and Central England (sites shown as red areas). Figure D: Map of MOD sites, with corresponding flood risk areas highlighted in blue. Figure E: Example map of a geoprocessed area demonstrating flood zones at Shoeburyness. Figure F: Example map of a geoprocessed area demonstrating flood zones at the Wash Ranges. Figure G: Example map of a geoprocessed area demonstrating flood zones at Hythe and Lydd Ranges. Figure H: DTE SE region showing Hythe and Lydd Ranges and Cinque Ports Training Areas Figure I: London Figure J: Pendine Figure K: Portsmouth Figure L: Shoeburyness and Colchester Ranges Figure M: The Wash Ranges Figure N: SW Region - the Somerset Levels Figure O: Cape Wrath Figure P: Lossiemouth and Kinloss Figure Q: Precipitation (% change) Annual and seasonal means Figure R: Groundwater flood Hazard 7 Conclusions and Recommendations 8 Explanation of Flood Risk Factors 9 Biodiversity and Habitat Implications 25 Appendix 1 Defence Intranet News article 28/06/2007 Military teams assist flood relief effort DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a iv Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report SPECIAL FOCUS INVESTIGATION – FLOOD IMPLICATIONS FOR MOD LOCATIONS 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Climate change in the UK is expected to result in more frequent, high intensity rainfall and periods of long-duration rainfall of the type responsible for the 2000 and 2007 floods, climate factors will also compound the rate and extent of coastal change. Climate change will therefore have a significant impact on flooding. The MOD estate will be exposed to greater risk as a consequence of climate change, and these flood risks will be particularly prevalent in certain locations. 1.2 To provide an estate that is fit for purpose a wide variety of training media and environments are required. The combination of infrastructure in association with training areas means that many existing training facilities could not be replicated in alternative locations. In these circumstances it is particularly important to be aware of increased exposure to flood risk. 1.3 The UK defence estate is located across many sites and locations. A large number of it’s assets are along and adjacent to the coast, in England and Wales alone this amounts to a total coastal frontage of 558 km (347 miles) and 84 sites. 1.4 Many sites, both inland and coastal, are vulnerable to flooding. The effects of onsite or even flooding near to sites will be to cause disruption to site operations, increase costs in relation to estate condition and repairs, release previously stable contaminants and pose risks to health and safety. If this vulnerability is assessed the risk of disruption and additional investment requirements can be minimised, and issues of longer term viability of the site can be addressed in estate development planning. 1.5 The Defence Estates Framework Statement on adaptation to Climate Change aims to ensure that the risks and potential opportunities to the defence estate posed by climate change are assessed and managed. The specific central government driver in this objective is to ‘identify opportunities to site new developments in areas that are less vulnerable to climate change impacts , and/or build resilience to climate change into new developments an major refurbishment projects’ (Framework for Sustainable Development on the Government Estate, Target G1B). 1.6 To begin to identify areas at particular likelihood of experiencing a flood event a mapping exercise has been conducted that overlays the MOD estate with the Environment Agency Flood Map data. This provides a rough indicator of areas that are at risk of coastal or fluvial flooding. 1.7 Flood events are determined by a complicated series of interrelationships between a number of flood risk factors. Flood events may arise from a number of sources, including coastal erosion, storm and sea level rise, fluvial, groundwater and sewage. Climate change will affect the level at which influencing forces are applied and the characteristics of the land, coast or management activities will affect the localised response. Additional details of flood risk factors and the influence of climate change is described later in the text. It should be noted that where these factors apply the risk of flooding could be significantly higher than indicated when looking at the EA data alone. DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 1 Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report Storms Physical Land Use and Geography Management Geomorphology & Topography Wind Speed and Direction Hills / valleys Precipitation (intensity and duration) Rivers & other Groundwater levels Geology water bodies Beaches Coastal cliffs and Physical changes in soil permeability slopes Coastal Waves Tidal flats and Tides marshes Coastal Storm Surges Estuaries Dunes Barriers and spits Land Use Structures Building use / occupancy Transport systems Impermeable hard standing Undermining Surface Eroding Activities Destabilising Activities Drainage burden & capacity River channel training Introduction or removal of stabilising vegetation Coastal Defence Structures / Management Measures Sea walls Shore-parallel structures Groynes Detached breakwaters Beach Recharging & recycling Managed realignment Dredging Addition of beach material Reclamation Estuarine modifications Flood vulnerability Climate change & flood factors Forcing Factors Table 1: Climate change and Flood Factors 2. AIM 2.1 To conduct an investigation on the changes in flood risk associated with MOD locations in England and Wales as a consequence of climate change. 3. SCOPE 3.1 This paper addresses the vulnerability and likelihood of flooding, using EA Flood Zones and descriptions of additional factors including the effects of climate change. The EA terminology for Flood Zones uses the term ‘risk’ as an indication of probability of occurrence, therefore where risk is used in this report it is only used to signify likelihood, rather than the full consequences of a flood event. 3.2 Risk is usually defined as a combination of the probability and the consequence of an outcome, where consequence relates to the significance of the assets that may DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 2 Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report be affected. The significance of MOD’s assets is addressed through long term planning and evaluation of estates requirements, for example, the Defence Estates Development Plan (DEDP) and therefore is not within the scope of this report. 3.3 An investigation was conducted using the Environment Agency (EA) floodmaps, for which DE hold a license to use, overlaid with MOD sites in England and Wales. At the outset of this work the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) had not produced and equivalent data set for Scotland, and there are no flood maps available in this format for Northern Ireland. Since this work began SEPA have produced a flood map database and dialogue has commenced between DE Environmental Support Team (EST) Estate Information Team (EIT) on licensing costs. 3.4 In addition to these maps, a text account is given, indicating how the flood probability will be exacerbated as a result of climate change. 3.5 Some areas of the overseas estate, particularly those in low lying and coastal regions, will be at significantly greater risk of flooding as a consequence of climate change. This has not been included within the scope of this report. 4. FLOOD ZONE INFORMATION 4.1 The Environment Agency (EA) is the lead authority on flood risk information in England and Wales. The EA collect data about rivers and coasts to model how floods could occur and map those areas that have been affected, or could be affected in the future. The flood map is designed to raise awareness of the likelihood of flooding and encourage appropriate action in areas that are prone to flooding. 4.2 The EA Flood Map shows areas across England and Wales that could be affected by flooding from rivers or the sea. It provides data on flood risk based on annual probabilities of flooding. The Flood Map shows the flooding that would occur without the presence of flood defences. The Flood Map also contains information about defences and the areas that benefit from them, but these are not factored into the Flood Zones data. 4.3 These maps are produced using topography data and information on river flows, sea level and wave data. This means they provide a picture of the flood risk at the current time and do not predict the impact of climate change. What they do indicate is, given the changing influence of sea level rise, wave action, precipitation and subsequent influences on coastal morphology and land form, areas that will increasingly be at risk as the impacts of climate change take effect. This scenario therefore provides an estimate of potential hazard mapping at a coarse level. 4.4 Flood Zones represent the natural flow routes, without the presence of flood defences. The Flood Zones, therefore, may show an area at risk of flooding which is different from that which would occur in a flood event if all flood defences perform as they are designed, or defences are at risk of failure, or flow routes are obstructed, or defences are breached. DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 3 Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report 4.5 It is therefore appropriate that more detailed flood risk assessments (FRAs) are considered for sites within Flood Zone 2. 4.6 Flood Map is used, under license with the EA, by the DE Estate Information Team. The probability of flooding 4.7 The probability or likelihood of flooding is described as the chance that a location will flood in any one year. If a location has a 1.3% chance of flooding each year, it can be expressed as having a 1 in 75 chance of flooding in that location in any year. However, this doesn’t mean that if a location floods one year, it will definitely not flood for the next 74 years. The lower the percentage then the less chance there is of flooding in any one year; the higher the percentage then the more chance there is of flooding in any one year. Zone River Sea Flood type 1 Extreme event Chance of happening in any year 0.1 % (1 in 1000) or greater 2 Moderate to significant 1 % (1 in 100) or greater 1 Extreme event 0.1 % (1 in 1000) or greater 2 Moderate 0.5 % (1 in 200) or to significant greater Survey data used Not in the equation Topography Ground surface flows existing flood defences Sea level and wave data Predicted erosion rates or sea level rise existing defences Table 2: The flood map zones 5. METHOD 5.1 The DE Estate Information Team used EA flood mapping data to identify which MOD sites in England and Wales corresponded with areas identified by the EA as at risk of flooding. The EA flood map for England and Wales is presented in Figure of flooding in any one year. 5.2 Areas of land under MOD ownership are listed individually on the Defence Property Gazetteer (DPG) as parcels. There is no clear definition for a MOD ‘site’, however an area that is generally referred to as a site will be comprised of a number of parcels. In order to produce statistics for this study, the parcels in a particular area were ‘grouped’ together, hence the term ‘Group statistics’ used in the information box accompanying maps E to G. 5.3 Using an information systems process called ‘geoprocessing’ the floodzone data was ‘cookie cut’ against the DPG parcels to produce a dataset called floodzones_MOD showing floodzone data that corresponded with MOD sites in England and Wales. This data set is represented pictorially in Figure D. Limits in DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 4 Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report memory size were encountered during this work, therefore a new process available on an upgraded next version of GIS software (ArcGIS 9.1) was pioneered which enabled partitioning of the data on the fly during geoprocessing. The resulting data partitions were then combined at the end to produce the required dataset. 5.4 The floodzone data in its raw form combines type (fluvial and sea) and risk (0.1 %, 0.5% and 1.0%) resulting in polygon areas that legitimately overlap. To remove these overlapping areas the data was ‘mosaiced’ or ‘jigsawed’ so that each combination of risk/type was unitised, therefore preventing incorrect duplication of statistical output (a useful resource for any future site specific studies). The resulting dataset is called floodzones_MOD_Union. 5.5 The coastline data was similarly produced using geoprocessing tools to ‘cut’ the high water mark (HWM) (extracted from OS Landline data) with the DPG parcels. The resulting linear dataset was then spatially joined to the original floodzone data, resulting in it taking on the attributes of floodtype/risk depending on where the two datasets were coincident. This gives information relating to length of MOD coastline at risk of flooding and whether this flooding is attributable to sea, river or both, and the level of risk from either. 5.6 This data is now available to be called upon to produce a variety of statistical, mapped and graphical output, for any site in England and Wales, for example the proportion of site at risk which can further be broken into floodzone/risk percentages, total no. of sites at risk and percentage of total area of MOD sites at risk. 6. RESULTS 6.1 GIS information available as a result of this study: • Identification of MOD sites in England and Wales that correspond with EA areas at risk of flooding (the floodzones_MOD data set, held by the Estate Information Team) • Maps to illustrate the risk at each site identified, as illustrated in Figures E to P (available from the Estate Information Team on request). • Length of MOD coastline at risk of flooding and whether this flooding is attributable to sea, river or both, and the level of risk from either • Statistical and graphical output for any site: the proportion of site at risk which can further be broken into floodzone/risk percentages total number and identity of the sites at risk percentage of total area of MOD sites at risk Maps available as a result of this study 6.2 The results from the study are presented in graphical format in the following section. For individual site use, copies can be requested at higher resolution from the DE Operations South Estate Information Team at Westdown. Figures E to P are illustrative of the type and detail generated as a result of the geoprocessing. DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 5 Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report Although not presented here, equivalent maps are available for all sites that correspond with the flood zones. Figure A: Environment Agency Summary Map of Flood Probability in England and Wales DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 6 Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report Figure B: Map showing the spread and location of all MOD sites in Northern England and Scotland (sites shown as red areas). DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 7 Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report Figure C: Map showing the spread and location of all MOD sites in Wales, Southern and Central England (sites shown as red areas). DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 8 Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report Figure D: Map of MOD sites, with corresponding flood risk areas highlighted in blue. DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 9 Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report Figure E: Example map of a geoprocessed area demonstrating flood zones at Shoeburyness. 6.3 The map shows the flood risk area (shown in blue), extending beyond the boundary of the MOD site (shown in pink). The extent of peripheral flood risk and therefore the management response for the local area will have implications for on-going MOD land use. The defence Property Gazetteer parcels for Shoeburyness already extend below the high water mark, therefore the statistics for this group of parcels indicate that only 26% of this site would be affected. This is because the other 74% is regularly fully inundated. DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 10 Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report Figure F: Example map of a geoprocessed area demonstrating flood zones at the Wash Ranges. 6.4 These ranges occupy a narrow strip in an area of extremely high flood probability. They are also significant areas for nature conservation, and sea level changes or flood events will have an associated impact on MOD’s legal obligations for biodiversity. DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 11 Draft April 2007 Flood Investigation Report Figure G: Example map of a geoprocessed area demonstrating flood zones at Hythe and Lydd Ranges. 6.5 The extent of floodzone at Hythe and Lydd ranges and the adjacent area of Romney marsh is the subject of an investigation regarding realignment and flood defences which has been reported in the Defence Training Estate South East Military Needs Paper (DTE SE MNP). DE ESP-Sus Dev 1a 12 Draft April 2007 REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES 6.6 This series of maps was generated to illustrate the widespread regional effects, both in terms of immediate disruption as a result of flood events, but also to long term implications to MOD activities. Figure H: DTE SE region showing Hythe and Lydd Ranges and Cinque Ports Training Areas 6.7 The DTE SE is the principal area for operational training. The range complexes comprise the most extensive collection of urban training facilities in Europe and extremely varied terrain. This makes the region unique in its training provision. 6.8 The area is demonstrably under threat from the risk of flooding and has been traditionally been protected by a shingle bar that was regularly replenished. The Environment Agency (EA) published a consultation document reviewing the coastal strategy in the South East in 2002, which considered ending the replenishment strategy and realigning the coastal defences to the rear of the training area in order to protect Romney Marsh. These recommendations were partly a result of the EA classifying the land as under low value Flood Investigation Report 13 SPECIAL FOCUS INVESTIGATION – FLOOD IMPLICATIONS FOR MOD LOCATIONS agricultural use. This was challenged by a MOD economic valuation and the area is now considered to be worth approximately £200m. 6.9 To explore options, it has been investigated whether an area of equivalent size (13,700ha) would be available elsewhere on the UK mainland. The results have shown that, capital costs and compulsory purchase issues aside, this size of space cannot be replicated in another part of the UK, simply because an area the size required to translocate these facilities, without constraints (designations / National Parks, urban or EA flood zone areas) is not available. 6.10 However, it must be acknowledged that the inevitable effects of sea level rise and coastal morphology mean that the sea is encroaching. These facilities are in the national interest however if the overriding environmental conditions will put them untenable risk and sea defences are not available the view that their situation cannot be altered is unsustainable. Figure I: London 6.11 The MOD owns a number of properties in London, which are of high strategic, political or financial value. London as a region is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change from thermal heat islands effects and flood risk. Flood Investigation Report 14 SPECIAL FOCUS INVESTIGATION – FLOOD IMPLICATIONS FOR MOD LOCATIONS 6.12 Tide levels are steadily increasing owing to a combination of factors. These include higher mean sea levels, greater storms, increasing tide amplitude, the tilting of the British Isles (with the south eastern corner tipping downwards) and the settlement of London on its bed of clay. As a result, tide levels are rising in the Thames Estuary relative to the land by about 60cm per century. Surge tides are a particular threat and occur when a trough of low pressure moves across the Atlantic towards the British Isles. 6.13 The EA predict that a severe flood in London could paralyse the central part of the London Underground, cause damage to fresh water and sewer systems and disrupt power, gas, telephone and vital data services. It could take months to get London functioning again. The financial cost of a major flood could be enormous, possibly topping £30,000m without counting the cost in human suffering and potential loss of life. 6.14 MOD needs to assess the long term viability of retaining its assets and activities in this region against how much its outcomes will be impacted on by prolonged flood risk or events. Figure J: Pendine Flood Investigation Report 15 SPECIAL FOCUS INVESTIGATION – FLOOD IMPLICATIONS FOR MOD LOCATIONS Figure K: Portsmouth Figure L: Shoeburyness and Colchester Ranges Flood Investigation Report 16 SPECIAL FOCUS INVESTIGATION – FLOOD IMPLICATIONS FOR MOD LOCATIONS Figure M: The Wash Ranges Figure N: SW Region - the Somerset Levels Flood Investigation Report 17 SPECIAL FOCUS INVESTIGATION – FLOOD IMPLICATIONS FOR MOD LOCATIONS 6.15 Figures J to N illustrate the extent of regional implications surrounding MOD sites. Whilst the direct impact on MOD areas is not as pronounce in Figure N, the effect on the SW region of this sort of flood event would be to isolate the region by cutting off motorway and rail connections, therefore implications away from the site of flooding must also be considered. 6.16 In extreme events the military are also called in to assist flood relief efforts, Appendix 1 details the military flood response aid in June 2007, which also acknowledges that Normandy Barracks didn't escape the rising waters, with many soldiers having to spend time baling out MOD property. Potential areas requiring further investigation – Scotland and Northern Ireland 6.17 At the time of this study the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) had not published a Scottish equivalent to the EA flood maps, however this is now available. Figure O, below, illustrates the location of Cape Wrath, which is identified as at risk of flooding from the sea across its entire coastline Figure O: Cape Wrath Flood Investigation Report 18 SPECIAL FOCUS INVESTIGATION – FLOOD IMPLICATIONS FOR MOD LOCATIONS Figure P: Lossiemouth and Kinloss 6.18 Lossiemouth and Kinloss are both identified by SEPA as being at risk of flooding from the sea across their coastline, with Kinloss also subject to potential fluvial flood risk on its southern boundary. 6.19 These views are illustrative, an equivalent exercise would need to be conducted for Scotland and Northern Ireland in order to systematically identify which sites correspond with areas of risk. Precipitation and Groundwater 6.20 Other sources of flooding include precipitation and groundwater. The surface of the water table fluctuates seasonally in response to rainfall and over the longer term, levels will vary in response to abstraction, changes in land use and climate change. Groundwater responds slowly compared with rivers so floods can last for weeks or months, and whilst the area of flood potential coincides strongly with the areas at risk in the east from fluvial and coastal flooding, this risk exists in addition. Flood Investigation Report 19 SPECIAL FOCUS INVESTIGATION – FLOOD IMPLICATIONS FOR MOD LOCATIONS 6.21 Areas prone to changes in precipitation and groundwater flooding as a consequence of climate change are reproduced below with permission from the British Geological Survey and the UKCIP02 Climate Scenarios. 6.22 More detailed spatial information will be available in the UKCIP08 predictive information, which will be available in 2008 and the British Geological Survey are able to provide targeted geological information if requested. Figure Q: Precipitation (% change) Annual and seasonal means Figure R: Groundwater flood Hazard Flood Investigation Report 20 7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1 Flooding is a natural process that can happen suddenly, and climate change can significantly increase flood risk, both in the UK and globally. • Sea level rise is expected to result in predominantly eroding coastlines around the UK. This, therefore, will impact on the land area and function of the MOD’s coastal sites. • Fluvial flooding will impact on stability and availability of MOD land to meet it’s intended purpose • The issue of flooding is also interlinked with other spatially relevant climate impacts affecting MOD locations. 7.2 The costs and protecting our assets and future investment will rise therefore minimising the risk through design and preparation are key to an effective response. Whilst the effects are a long-term, the issue requires immediate and ongoing management responses to these challenges in order to provide long-term solutions. 7.3 An effectively adapted MOD should be able to: • • • • • Set an example Lead / adapt Government Utilise / Contribute to research and understanding Provide protection against the danger Seize the opportunity / manage the risk Recommendations Emergency plans 7.4 Review and strengthen MOD Emergency plans and preparedness to mitigate the effects of floods. This should include off as well as on site issues for example, impacts on transport and the identification of locations that are vulnerable to interruptions in strategic links and alternative/diversionary routes are required. 7.5 Address an estate wide policy on managed realignment. Awareness on how to interact with stakeholders on managed realignment would assist site staff to ensue consistency of management is applied when these issues arise at site level. Currently site responses are managed in an ad hoc manner. Risk Assessments 7.6 Implement detailed risk assessments of the likely effects of a major flood of MOD low-lying areas. Sites that coincide with flood map data are recommended to undertake a Flood Risk Assessment, for the purposes of awareness and risk management, therefore the assessments take place more frequently than when planning is required for new developments. Flood Investigation Report 21 7.7 The Defence Estates Development Plan (DEDP) to ensure these factors are considered at the appropriate time. Staff skills 7.8 Estates staff need to be trained with the appropriate skills to undertake and advise on these assessments and give suitable advice on the flood planning guidance. 7.9 Flood risk should be considered at all stages of the planning and development process in order to reduce future damage to property and loss of life. This is the underpinning principle of the Government’s Planning Policy Guidance 25 on Development and Flood Risk (PPG25). It is also recommended that consideration of flood risk should take place as matter of course on MOD sites in order to understand viability and inform long term investment decisions. 7.10 Provide an estate role for expert in flood risk management to: • • • • • • Update on flood management policy in line with planning requirements and legislation Advise on the practical implementation of PPS25 1 Long-term, sustainable approaches towards flood management Ensure that the impact of land use on catchment flood management is minimised Oversee the effective implementation of SUDS Advise on effective methods for flood recovery PPG 25 Development and Flood Risk PPG25 sets out the Government’s policy on the role of land-use planning in reducing flooding and the damage which floods cause. The EA Flood Zones have been produced to enable planning authorities to apply the sequential test for development proposals and prevent inappropriate development in areas at risk from flooding. MOD developments are categorised as water compatible, however, despite this classification it is essential that flood risk on the estate is properly taken into account in order to reduce the risk of flooding and the damage which floods cause. 7.11 Additional staffing would also be recommended to provide the information and data management to support site requirements. Future Military needs 7.12 Further research into MOD locations and military needs and the employment of coastal engineering for coastal defences in association with the appropriate OGDs is required. The results from these investigations should be considered in all future site development and investment decisions. Information systems 1 Plus: Making Space for Water, the Water Frameworks Directive, the Marine Bill, technologies and methods for coastal zone risk management and monitoring, environmental and wildlife considerations in design solutions, the impact of climate change and erosion. Flood Investigation Report 22 7.13 Extended use of Geographical Information Systems to take full account of flood risk factors should be made available in order to support flood risk assessments and investment planning. • Improve GIS information to show assets (assets currently only available on a database, which does not allow a visual representation alongside other spatially based risks, i.e. exactly where a building is positioned), and separate these out by value and TLB. • Computer memory size. The floodzone dataset is very large, which gave rise to computer memory capacity problems when geoprocessing. To overcome this, the data was split then reunited. This approach was more complicated, unstable and still very memory intensive. Improved memory facilities would be advantageous to facilitate further work in this area. • Use of other data / sources of information and costs. The EA data is used under licence, but further information is being produced (for example, by SEPA, or DoE Environment and Heritage Service Northern Ireland, British Geological Service, Association of British Insurers) that if accessed, would be of value to MOD sites. Wider effects 7.14 The wider consequences of development need to be fully accounted for, such as increased runoff from areas of hard standing and development in the floodplain (less land available for infiltration by rainwater) or coastal erosion resulting from hard engineering. 7.15 Safeguarding. The EA are developing a Water Resources Strategy for England and Wales that intends to protect and restore wetlands. Wetlands assist in reducing flooding, diffuse pollution and also provide habitats for rare species. Restoration of wetlands adjacent to MOD sites would provide a means of managing our statutory biodiversity obligations (see Section 9) as well as a means to offset run-off from areas of hard standing, however this needs to be carefully weighed up with the implications for safeguarding, particularly in encouraging wildlife in the proximity to airfields. 7.16 Overseas: Some areas of the overseas estate, particularly those in low lying and coastal regions, will be at significantly greater risk of flooding as a consequence of climate change. This has not been included within the scope of this report. 7.17 Critical infrastructure, for example ports and dockyards. 7.18 Water supply. In addition to flood concerns, the pressures on water systems are growing, with increasing new development and more use of water. Climate change will have a major impact on river flows, yields and groundwater resources which will add to these pressures and the MOD will need to think differently and act now for its water resource planning. The influence that land management has on the management of water resources and water quality is therefore strongly linked to the flood issue. 7.19 Contaminated land and potential liabilities for re released contamination. Recommended further investigations 7.20 Follow up to flood study. E.g. Site flood risk assessments. Flood Investigation Report 23 • Extend phase 1 flood study to all UK MOD sites Phase 2 – conduct detailed site pilot studies. Phase 3, use the findings from the detailed site pilot studies to develop and implement a plan for Flood Risk Assessment for all sites (needs definition). Investigate overseas estate flood risk in relation to climate change. • 7.21 The Research recommendations for the production of specific technical guidance on flood resilient building techniques and the impact of flooding on the value property. 8. EXPLANATION OF FLOOD RISK FACTORS 8.1 Factors that influence flooding: • • • • • • • Fluvial condition Groundwater Geology Development (particularly roof areas and hard standing) Drainage systems Precipitation Coastal change Precipitation 8.2 Climate change predictions suggest there is potential for heavy winter precipitation to become more frequent. 8.3 This would increase cliff and slope instability, increase winter flooding, could affect vegetation patterns, which in turn affect stability, and would increase river flows and sediment input. 8.4 Predicted drier summers would also be likely to result in flash flooding and rapid run off when summer precipitation does occur. Coastal change 8.5 The coast is a highly dynamic environment with continual changes in energy conditions affecting erosion, sediment transport and deposition processes. The effects of the last glaciation resulted in sediment deposits at the coastline which built up beaches of sand and gravel. Since that time the sediment resource on many coasts has reduced, and this problem is exacerbated at some locations due to sea defences. The accelerated rate of change of sea level rise will have a further destabilising effect on coastal systems. 8.6 Sea level rise, storm intensity and surge height will increase as a result of climate change. This will have an effect on the forcing factors (waves, tides, storm surges and wind) that drive coastal change. 8.7 Coastal change that affects MOD sites principally arises from loss of land due to erosion and coastline retreat. This will occur in the following conditions: • Where erosion exceeds accretion Flood Investigation Report 24 • • • land subsidence (e.g. the tipping effect in the South East due to isostatic movement) Sea level rise (caused by climate change from increased volume of water through thermal expansion and melting ice). Inundation of low-lying areas (e.g. tidal flooding as a result of breached sea defences or natural barriers such as dune complexes). This can affect particularly large areas in flat low-lying counties such as Norfolk, Suffolk and Lincolnshire. Sea Level Rise 8.8 The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) has established future climate scenarios for the UK based on different global emissions scenarios. Since figures were produced in 2002 global emissions have continued to rise, so the UKCIP 2002 estimates for future sea level rise presented below are based on the high emissions scenario. Region Net Sea-level Change 2080s (mm) NE Scotland SE Scotland NE England Yorkshire East Midlands Eastern England London SE England SW England Wales Northern Ireland NW England 610 600 660 750 800 820 860 790 760 710 690 670 Return Periods 8.9 Sea level rise will also cause a reduction in return periods; this means an increase in the likelihood of flooding. An area that presently experiences minor sea flooding only once in 100 years is expected to experience this level of flooding more frequently in the future. The level of sea flooding is also expected to become more severe (e.g. a floodwater depth of 100mm experienced once in 100 years in future, rather than a floodwater depth of 50mm presently experienced once in 100 years). 8.10 Reduction in return periods 1: 100 yr event could change to a 1:7 year event – change in class of flood. Coastal forms relevant to MOD properties 8.11 Estuaries Estuaries have generally been modified as a result of reclamation, training of river channels, associated dredging. These impact on the estuary as well as adjacent shoreline. There is often a significant difference in level between the land projected by the defences and nearby salt marsh or mudflat due to dewatering and compaction following the reclamation. This means that these reclaimed areas are very vulnerable to sea level rise, should defences start to fail. Flood Investigation Report 25 8.12 Cuspate forelands (nesses) Nesses are low coastal forms, which are common on the east of England (e.g Orfordness, Suffolk, Shoeburyness, Essex). These features are sensitive to climate change and a typical natural response is to migrate landwards. However in many locations the landward migration is constrained by defences and under continued sea level rise there will be coastal squeeze. Erosion or submergences may a result. 8.13 Tidal flats and marshes The vegetation on saltmarshes trap sediments, creating a dynamic sediment redistributions system. They disperse wave and tidal energy and are therefore important for reducing the likelihood of flooding to low lying hinterland. 8.14 Saltmarshes are very sensitive to sea level rise and their survival depends upon sufficient sediment and the space for saltmarsh to migrate landwards. This needs to be considered at MOD coastal sites that are adjacent to saltmarsh, as hard protection of infrastructure developments will result in coastal squeeze, and therefore reduce the potential of the saltmarsh to manage flood risk. Coastal Defence and Managed Realignment 8.15 Managed realignment is the deliberate, controlled action of retreating inland from the existing line of sea defence. 8.16 Climate change and sea level rise means that defending coastlines is becoming more costly and technically difficult. The increasing cost of maintenance means that existing defences may be abandoned in areas with low population or fewer tangible assets. This approach has been implemented in some former reclaimed, low lying areas of the Wash and Essex estuaries. 8.17 Natural England, the Environment Agency and Defra are beginning to favour this approach in preference to engineered sea defences in some areas and this will impact on MOD where this strategy is being implemented adjacent to MOD coastal sites, for example Hythe and Lydd. 9. BIODIVERSITY AND HABITAT IMPLICATIONS 9.1 The European Birds and Habitats Directives and associated domestic legislation 2 have implications for flood management as a consequence of coastal squeeze. Therefore the planning of flood risk management and coastal protection must be consistent with the requirements of these Directives and associated legislation. 9.2 Flood risk and coastal erosion management measures have an enormous effect on wetland and coastal environments and their conservation interest. Habitat losses are due to a combination of flood risk management and sea level rise. 9.3 The SD implications for any changes must be assessed in accordance with MOD policy, for example the Appropriate Assessment of changes to a European designated habitat (see the Sustainability and Environmental Appraisal Tools Handbook), in order to determine whether 2 Directive 79/409/EEC The conservation of wild birds and Directive 92/43/EC The conservation of natural habitats and of wild flora and fauna, and the Conservation (Natural Habitats, &c.) Regulations 1994 Flood Investigation Report 26 the activity may proceed and recommendations on any measures or conditions that may be required. 9.4 Plans and projects at estuarine and coastal locations that are suffering a loss of intertidal habitats due to sea level rise may only proceed if they will not adversely affect the integrity of a European site (meaning there is no reasonable scientific doubt as to the absence of such effects). To determine this, analysis of wave reflection, wider hydro-geomorphological effects and any other relevant factors have to be taken into account, all of which are likely to be difficult to distinguish from the impacts of sea level rise. Where it is proposed that the line of defence is maintained in the face of sea level rise, it is unlikely that there will not be a ignificant effect. 9.5 Alternatively plans or projects may proceed if there are no alternative solutions and it is necessary for imperative reasons of overriding public interest, and any necessary compensatory measures to protect the coherence of Natura 2000 are secured. Compensatory measures 9.6 In order to help conserve sites currently subject to coastal squeeze and to avoid delays in the implementation of justified flood management works, operating authorities are encouraged to develop a strategic approach to the planning and delivery of any habitat creation measures that they anticipate will be required before undertaking or seeking consent for plans or projects. Wherever possible, Shoreline Management Plans, Catchment Flood Management Plans and flood management strategies should be used to help anticipate habitat creation requirements and opportunities. This approach should provide the necessary business case, strategic framework and rationale for undertaking habitat creation as part of compensatory measures and allow any synergies with sustainable coastal management to be realised. 9.7 Intertidal habitat loss is mainly occurring in the south and east of the country, between the Humber and Severn, therefore Defra 3 recommend that the preferred areas for intertidal habitat creation will also be in those locations and preferably associated with the Natura 2000 sites where habitat is being lost due to coastal squeeze. 9.8 MOD sites will therefore be affected by Natural England and the Environment Agency’s work to identify opportunities for habitat creation, particularly through the development of Shoreline Management Plans, Catchment Flood Management Plans and flood management strategies. 3 Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Flood Investigation Report 27 Avoiding deterioration of European sites Appropriate steps must be taken to avoid flood management structures or activities causing the deterioration of natural habitats, or the habitats of protected species, within European sites or the disturbance of species for which the site has been designated that could be significant in relation to the objectives of the Habitats Directive. This is required by Article 6(2) of the Directive. In relation to marine/intertidal areas, any authority conducting operations is required to exercise their functions relevant to marine conservation so as to secure compliance with the requirements of the Habitats Directive14. The nature of the steps taken to meet these requirements will depend on what is necessary and appropriate to avoid detrimental effects on European sites. English Nature has agreed to work with operating authorities to help identify where flood and coastal management work (including managed realignment) is needed to avoid the deterioration of natural habitats in European sites. Article 3 of the Wild Birds Directive Article 3 of the Wild Birds Directive requires Member States to take measures “to preserve, maintain or re-establish a sufficient diversity and area of habitats for all the species of birds referred to in Article 1” of the Directive. This obligation should not be confused with the requirements under Article 6 of the Habitats Directive, which are directly linked to the Natura 2000 network. However, any compensatory measures secured to protect coherence of Natura 2000 and steps taken to avoid the deterioration European sites under Article 6 of the Habitats Directive might be expected to contribute to meeting obligations under Article 3. Flood Investigation Report 28 APPENDIX 1 DEFENCE INTRANET - Military teams assist flood relief effort 28/06/2007 A number of Army and Royal Air Force personnel along with an RAF Chinook heavy lift helicopter have been helping the emergency services with the flood relief effort in the north of England. In Bentley, just north of Doncaster, the Environment Agency identified a weak point on the River Don. An 18 Squadron Chinook helicopter, from RAF Odiham in Hampshire, was immediately called in to help lift around 150 tonnes of aggregate near the village of Almholme in a bid to reinforce and support the banks of the River Don. Throughout the evening of Wednesday 27 June 2007 the helicopter made several trips, carrying the bags as an under-slung load. They continued with the lifting this morning, Thursday 28 June 2007. Flight Lieutenant Stu Gerrard, 28, Officer Commanding the Mobile Air Operations team at RAF Benson, has been helping to coordinate the RAF assistance in Doncaster: "We've been supporting the Environment Agency's operation," explained Flt Lt Gerrard. "What we're doing is lifting around 150 bags of aggregate to try and reinforce the river and prevent it from overflowing. An 18 Squadron Chinook helicopter, from RAF Odiham in Hampshire, helps to lift around 150 tonnes of aggregate near the village of Almholme in a bid to reinforce and support the banks of the River Don [Picture: MOD] "We've been working with numerous different organisations, including the police and the fire service. We've taken the lead on how to get the bags where they need to get to. The danger of lifting these loads all makes for a challenging and tricky operation. "This is unique in terms of the specific role we're carrying out here but in terms of flying and preparing loads, it's what we train for. It's more the equipment we're using and the multi agency working that is different to what we're used to. But it is good to know our unique skills are being used." This week's floods, which were most severe in Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and the Midlands, have already claimed four lives. On Monday 25 June 2007 RAF Search and Rescue helicopters worked through the evening to rescue more than 100 people stranded in Hull and Sheffield. Flood Investigation Report 29 Flt Lt Gerrard has followed the events of the last few days with interest, particularly the assistance provided by his RAF search and rescue colleagues: "We had no idea we would get called in," he said. "I obviously knew that if there was a real need then we might get called upon to help because we hold a very short notice standby to do this sort of thing, 365 days a year, so we are always available if needed." Sergeant Paul Waterhouse, from 18 Squadron at RAF Odiham, has been helping to liaise with the numerous agencies involved in the flood relief effort to make it all possible: Help is at hand: An elderly man is lifted to safety [Picture: MOD] "Everything has gone very smoothly so far," he said. "It's been diffcult getting everything together, the logistics side of it in particular. but it's great for us to be involved and it's good for the civilian population that we can carry out this role when required." Meanwhile four assault boats and their four-man Army crews deployed from 38 Engineer Regiment in Ripon to an electricity substation at Thorpe Marsh near Doncaster. They used their boats to cross the flood water surrounding the substation and then reinforced the flood protection with sandbags on key buildings. They have also been transporting members of the South Yorkshire Fire and Rescue Services, with their pumping equipment, and National Grid personnel as well as shuttling the 45-gallon drums of diesel that fuel the substation's emergency generators: "Only two boats have been on the water at a time but everyone has got their feet wet during this task today," explained Captain John Kirkman, who headed the team. "The substation is surrounded by a floodwater lake and we have placed about 150 sandbags to help protect certain parts. We have been pleased to be able to support the Fire and Rescue Service and National Grid at this time." Personnel from The Defence School of Transport (DST) at Normandy Barracks, Leconfield in East Yorkshire have also been in the thick of the flood relief effort throughout the Humber Area, mainly in and around Hull. Filling and distributing sandbags is just one of the many tasks they have undertaken. Soldiers from The Defence School of Transport help with the flood relief effort [Picture: MOD] The soldiers have also helped deliver hot food to the civilian police as well helping to rescue those who were trapped in their homes and, in one instance, helping to rescue disabled pensioners from sheltered accommodation in Cottingham, near Hull. Normandy Barracks itself didn't escape the rising waters, with many soldiers having to spend time baling ourselves out. Flood Investigation Report 30 DST spokesman Captain Terry O'Hagan said: "I'm very proud of the work that our chaps did. They just got on with it, cheerfully and uncomplainingly. The civilian population were most appreciative and provided us with copious amounts of tea, sticky buns, sandwiches and soup – which was very touching considering their circumstances." So far the DST soldiers have filled 9,000 sandbags for local authorities, filled and delivered a further 2,400 throughout the area, ground loaded 1,000 more and have 600 sandbags loaded on trucks ready to move at short notice should the situation worsen. Flood Investigation Report 31