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Conflict Analysis Joakim Kreutz Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Objectives of the Lecture • Introduce a method to analyse conflicts • Speak a common language; agreement on a specific terminology • Make a link between conflict analysis and context analysis in your (change) project What is Conflict Analysis? • A method for presenting a systematic analysis of a conflict at a given moment in time, usually with some conclusions relating to e.g. risk assessment, scenario analysis, or conflict sensitivity Why Conflict Analysis? • To better understand a conflict for the purpose of improving decision-making, e.g. in regards to conflict prevention, management, and resolution • Improved understanding of the context in which different organizations work and their role in it • Relevant both for actors working ”on” and ”in” conflict • Relevant both from perspective of ”Do No Harm” and ”Do Maximum Good” • Relevant for all types of conflicts, not just armed/political How to do a Conflict Analysis? • Different analytical frameworks and methodologies available Methods: desk study or in the field, outside (neutral) or inside (partial) view Sources: reports and previous analyses, official documents and statements, academic studies, interviews, stakeholder workshops Definition of conflict ”A social situation in which a minimum of two actors (parties) strive to acquire at the same moment in time an available set of scarce resources” (Wallensteen 2007: 15) Level of Analysis? • International • Regional • Country • Community/Group • Individual Basic Structure for Conflict Analysis? • Parties (actors) • Conflict Issues • Conflict Behaviour • Conflict Attitudes • Conflict Dynamics • Conflict Resolution 1. Parties (Actors) • Primary parties: The central actors who are pursuing the issues at stake in the conflict • Secondary parties: Actors who support the primary parties and indirectly affect the dynamic of the conflict • Third parties: Actors who are outside the conflict and are helping the primary parties to resolve it The Character of the Parties • Composition of the party: degrees of cohesion or fragmentation • Type of leadership • Basis for mobilization • The relationship between the group and its constituency and with the society at large Power Resources and Power Relations • Power resources of the primary parties • Economic, military, political • International status, popular support, alliances, legitimacy • Power relations between the parties (primary + secondary) • Symmetry • Assymetry Questions • Who are the primary parties to the conflict? • What are the characters of the primary parties? • Who are the secondary parties? • Is there a third party? • What power resources do the primary parties have? • What is the power relation between the parties? • Are power relations symmetrical or assymetrical? Conflict Issues Attitudes Behaviour The Conflict Triangle 2. Conflict Issues • Positions (subjective demands) • Offensive or defensive positions (Change/status quo) • General or specific positions • Underlying interests (values, resources) • Material or Immaterial interests • Divisible or non-divisible interests • Absolute or relative interests Questions • What is the issue at stake or the incompatibility in question? • What are the parties positions (subjective definition) in regards to the issue? • Are the positions offensive or defensive? • Are the positions expressed in general or specific terms? • What are the underlying interests that can explain the parties’ positions? 3. Conflict Behaviour • The actions and strategies that parties use to reach their goals or prevent others from reaching their goals • Violent and non-violent actions • The targeting of certain individuals, groups or regions; gender aspects of violence, targeting of civilians • Selective or indiscriminate? Questions • What types of conflict behaviour have been used in the conflict? • Are some groups in society more likely to be targeted for violence than others? 4. Conflict Attitudes • Emotional or psychological states in a conflict situation; fear, hate, anger, suspicion • Cognitive processes; negative attitudes and perceptions • Influence on norms; individual, communal, societal Questions • Which conflict attitudes are commonly displayed by the conflicting parties and/or in society at large? • Try to differentiate between emotional states and cognitive processes • Which norms are prevalent in society? • In general? As an effect of the conflict? • On violence, on governance, on gender roles? 5. Conflict Dynamics • A comprehensive analysis of conflict dynamics inlcude a study of the causes of conflict, the context in which the conflict takes place, and its development over time • The key concern is how the different components of the conflict triangle – issues, behavior and attitudes – relate to each other over time What is escalation? Two different understandings: • From light to heavy tactics (more destructive) and/or geographical spread of violence • But also an intensification of the conflict as a whole – in all corners of the Conflict Triangle What happens when conflicts escalate? • From few to many parties (new parties, splits, new alliances) • From few and small to many and large issues • From specific to general issues • From light to heavy tactics (more destructive behaviour) • From doing well (absolute gain) to winning (relative gain) to hurting Other (Other’s loss) Why do they escalate? • Temporary emotional states (fear, anger, blame) lead to structural (permanent) changes at different levels of analysis • Individual level: e.g. stereotypes, deindividualization, dehumanization • Group level: e.g. group polarization, militant leaders • Community level: community polarization, segregation Escalation and conflict resolution? • These structural changes tend to become self-reinforcing through the development of self-confirmatory mechanisms at different levels of analysis • Individual level: self-fulfilling prophecy, selective information processing • Group level: development of vested interests, war economy, war political order • Community level: destruction of crosscutting organisations, disappearance of neutral parties Conflict Issues Attitudes Behaviour The Conflict Triangle Questions • Has the parties changed over time? • Has the conflict issues changed over time? Has more issues been added? Have they been generalized? • Has the conflict behaviour of the parties changed over time? • Has there been phases of escalation and de-escalation? • Has the conflict attitudes of the parties changed over time? • Has there been a polarization of the conflict? 6. Conflict Resolution • Change of/in parties • Different mechanisms in place for resolving issues through redrawing of territorial boundaries or governance arrangements • Addressing conflict behaviour through ceasefires and DDR & SSR processes • Adressing conflict attitudes through confidence building measures, reconciliation, transitional justice Questions • In what way does the suggested solution affect the structure of the parties to the conflict? • How does it attempt to manage or dissolve the conflict issues? • In what ways does it address conflict behaviour? • Does it affect the social relations between the parties and their conflict attitudes? Questions +1 • In what way does the suggested solution affect the structure of the parties to the conflict? • How does it attempt to manage or dissolve the conflict issues? • In what ways does it address conflict behaviour? • Does it affect the social relations between the parties and their conflict attitudes? • How does conflict resolution affect other parties (violent and non-violent)? Thank you!