Download What is Conflict Analysis?

Conflict Analysis
Joakim Kreutz
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
Objectives of the Lecture
• Introduce a method to analyse conflicts
• Speak a common language; agreement on a specific
terminology
• Make a link between conflict analysis and context
analysis in your (change) project
What is Conflict Analysis?
• A method for presenting a systematic analysis of a
conflict at a given moment in time, usually with some
conclusions relating to e.g. risk assessment, scenario
analysis, or conflict sensitivity
Why Conflict Analysis?
• To better understand a conflict for the purpose of improving
decision-making, e.g. in regards to conflict prevention,
management, and resolution
• Improved understanding of the context in which different
organizations work and their role in it
• Relevant both for actors working ”on” and ”in” conflict
• Relevant both from perspective of ”Do No Harm” and ”Do
Maximum Good”
• Relevant for all types of conflicts, not just armed/political
How to do a Conflict Analysis?
• Different analytical frameworks and methodologies available
Methods: desk study or in the field, outside (neutral) or inside
(partial) view
Sources: reports and previous analyses, official documents and
statements, academic studies, interviews, stakeholder
workshops
Definition of conflict
”A social situation in which a minimum of two actors (parties)
strive to acquire at the same moment in time an available set of
scarce resources”
(Wallensteen 2007: 15)
Level of Analysis?
• International
• Regional
• Country
• Community/Group
• Individual
Basic Structure for Conflict Analysis?
• Parties (actors)
• Conflict Issues
• Conflict Behaviour
• Conflict Attitudes
• Conflict Dynamics
• Conflict Resolution
1. Parties (Actors)
• Primary parties: The central actors who are pursuing the issues
at stake in the conflict
• Secondary parties: Actors who support the primary parties and
indirectly affect the dynamic of the conflict
•
Third parties: Actors who are outside the conflict and are
helping the primary parties to resolve it
The Character of the Parties
• Composition of the party: degrees of cohesion or
fragmentation
• Type of leadership
• Basis for mobilization
• The relationship between the group and its constituency and
with the society at large
Power Resources and Power Relations
• Power resources of the primary parties
• Economic, military, political
• International status, popular support, alliances, legitimacy
• Power relations between the parties (primary + secondary)
• Symmetry
• Assymetry
Questions
• Who are the primary parties to the conflict?
• What are the characters of the primary parties?
• Who are the secondary parties?
• Is there a third party?
• What power resources do the primary parties have?
• What is the power relation between the parties?
• Are power relations symmetrical or assymetrical?
Conflict
Issues
Attitudes
Behaviour
The Conflict Triangle
2. Conflict Issues
• Positions (subjective demands)
• Offensive or defensive positions (Change/status quo)
• General or specific positions
• Underlying interests (values, resources)
• Material or Immaterial interests
• Divisible or non-divisible interests
• Absolute or relative interests
Questions
• What is the issue at stake or the incompatibility in question?
• What are the parties positions (subjective definition) in regards to
the issue?
• Are the positions offensive or defensive?
• Are the positions expressed in general or specific terms?
• What are the underlying interests that can explain the parties’
positions?
3. Conflict Behaviour
• The actions and strategies that parties use to reach their goals
or prevent others from reaching their goals
• Violent and non-violent actions
• The targeting of certain individuals, groups or regions; gender
aspects of violence, targeting of civilians
•
Selective or indiscriminate?
Questions
• What types of conflict behaviour have been used in the
conflict?
• Are some groups in society more likely to be targeted for
violence than others?
4. Conflict Attitudes
• Emotional or psychological states in a conflict situation; fear,
hate, anger, suspicion
• Cognitive processes; negative attitudes and perceptions
• Influence on norms; individual, communal, societal
Questions
• Which conflict attitudes are commonly displayed by the
conflicting parties and/or in society at large?
• Try to differentiate between emotional states and cognitive processes
• Which norms are prevalent in society?
• In general? As an effect of the conflict?
• On violence, on governance, on gender roles?
5. Conflict Dynamics
• A comprehensive analysis of conflict dynamics inlcude a study
of the causes of conflict, the context in which the conflict
takes place, and its development over time
• The key concern is how the different components of the
conflict triangle – issues, behavior and attitudes – relate to
each other over time
What is escalation?
Two different understandings:
• From light to heavy tactics (more destructive) and/or
geographical spread of violence
• But also an intensification of the conflict as a whole – in all
corners of the Conflict Triangle
What happens when conflicts escalate?
• From few to many parties (new parties, splits, new alliances)
• From few and small to many and large issues
• From specific to general issues
• From light to heavy tactics (more destructive behaviour)
• From doing well (absolute gain) to winning (relative gain) to
hurting Other (Other’s loss)
Why do they escalate?
• Temporary emotional states (fear, anger, blame) lead to
structural (permanent) changes at different levels of analysis
• Individual level: e.g. stereotypes, deindividualization, dehumanization
• Group level: e.g. group polarization, militant leaders
• Community level: community polarization, segregation
Escalation and conflict resolution?
• These structural changes tend to become self-reinforcing
through the development of self-confirmatory mechanisms at
different levels of analysis
•
Individual level: self-fulfilling prophecy, selective information processing
•
Group level: development of vested interests, war economy, war political order
•
Community level: destruction of crosscutting organisations, disappearance of neutral
parties
Conflict
Issues
Attitudes
Behaviour
The Conflict Triangle
Questions
• Has the parties changed over time?
• Has the conflict issues changed over time? Has more issues
been added? Have they been generalized?
• Has the conflict behaviour of the parties changed over time?
• Has there been phases of escalation and de-escalation?
• Has the conflict attitudes of the parties changed over time?
• Has there been a polarization of the conflict?
6. Conflict Resolution
• Change of/in parties
• Different mechanisms in place for resolving issues through
redrawing of territorial boundaries or governance
arrangements
• Addressing conflict behaviour through ceasefires and DDR &
SSR processes
• Adressing conflict attitudes through confidence building
measures, reconciliation, transitional justice
Questions
• In what way does the suggested solution affect the structure of
the parties to the conflict?
• How does it attempt to manage or dissolve the conflict issues?
• In what ways does it address conflict behaviour?
• Does it affect the social relations between the parties and their
conflict attitudes?
Questions +1
• In what way does the suggested solution affect the structure of
the parties to the conflict?
• How does it attempt to manage or dissolve the conflict issues?
• In what ways does it address conflict behaviour?
• Does it affect the social relations between the parties and their
conflict attitudes?
• How does conflict resolution affect other parties (violent and
non-violent)?
Thank you!