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Falling U.S. mortgage rates give cause to refinance
By RUTH SIMON, The Wall Street Journal
Wednesday, February 4, 2004
If you thought you missed out on low mortgage rates, think again.
Economic jitters have pushed mortgage rates back down to levels not seen since July. That's good news both for
procrastinators who missed out on last year's refinancing boom and for home buyers looking to keep costs down.
Rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages currently average 5.82 percent, according to HSH Associates, financial
publishers in Pompton Plains, N.J. As recently as early December, mortgage rates were at 6.18 percent.
With so many borrowers having already refinanced, the lower rates aren't likely to produce the kind of mortgage
frenzy seen last summer. Still, at current rates, roughly 45 percent of borrowers can profitably refinance, says
Dale Westhoff, head of mortgage research at Bear Stearns.
The drop in rates should also provide a boost to the economy. Already, lenders are reporting a rebound in
mortgage refinancings, which should put millions of dollars into consumers' pockets. And the lower rates could
spur home sales, which have begun to cool in recent months after hitting record levels.
The decline in mortgage rates comes on the heels of a recent employment report that suggested that just 1,000
new jobs were added to payrolls in December, despite robust growth by the economy in the second half of 2003.
The weak job numbers helped push down rates on 10-year Treasurys, as bond investors bet that the Federal
Reserve will continue to keep interest rates low to stimulate the economy. Rates on 30-year mortgages, which
tend to move in line with rates on 10-year Treasurys, also fell.
Susan Piccolo had planned to refinance last summer, but missed the boat because she kept waiting for rates to
drop even lower. "I got a little greedy," says Piccolo, a registered nurse who lives in Avon, Conn.
When her mortgage banker called this month, Piccolo quickly locked in a 30-year jumbo mortgage with a 5.75
percent rate, well below her current rate of 6.375 percent. Piccolo says the new loan will cut her monthly
payments by about $160.
But the opportunity for borrowers is likely to be fleeting. "This is the sweet spot," says Doug Duncan, chief
economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association. Unless the economy slows, Duncan expects rates to rise again
when new employment numbers are released in early February.
With loan volumes still down from their record levels last year, borrowers should have an easier time getting
through to their lenders -- and may even find their lenders reaching out to them. "Our loan officers are pretty
hungry now," says Robert Couch, president and chief executive officer of New South Federal Savings Bank in
Birmingham, Ala. "They will be dusting off files" of would-be borrowers who didn't act last summer. His bank took
283 loan applications last week, versus just 161 applications the week before Christmas. At ABN Amro Mortgage
Group, a unit of ABN Amro Bank NV, loan applications doubled last week from the previous week. Lower rates
were a significant factor in that, says Garth Graham, an ABN Amro senior vice president, though it is also partly a
result of people getting to their post-holiday to-do lists.
Michael Menatian, president of Sanborn Corp., a West Hartford, Conn., mortgage banker, says his firm closed
153 loans in June at the peak of the refinancing boom. Last month, the firm closed just 17 loans. When rates
began to drop, Menatian started calling borrowers who missed out on last summer's low rates to let them know
they had one more opportunity to cut their borrowing costs.
David Lys, a health-club trainer and fitness manager, had been looking for a home for about a year. Last week,
he agreed to pay $520,000 for a three-bedroom, two-bathroom ranch in East Hampton, N.Y. "It was the rates
being so low that got me started," says Lys, who plans to take out an interest-only mortgage with a 4.625 percent
rate that allows him to pay no principal during the early years of the loan.
Like Lys, many borrowers are opting for interest-only loans or adjustable-rate mortgages that carry a fixed rate for
only the first few years. Lys's mortgage broker, Melissa Cohn, says she's seen a surge in interest in a three-year
adjustable loan that carries a fixed rate for the first three years, and then adjusts annually.
Overall, ARMs now account for more than 25 percent of mortgage applications, according to the Mortgage
Bankers Association. "It's higher than what we normally see given where we are in this refinancing wave," says
Westhoff of Bear Stearns, noting that ARMs are typically favored by first-time home buyers looking to lower their
monthly payments. However, banks have been aggressively pushing these loans this time around and
consumers seem more comfortable with them than in the past.
Falling mortgage rates in 2002 and in the first half of 2003 allowed millions of homeowners to slice their monthly
payments and pull cash out of their homes. That, in turn, helped make consumer spending one of the few bright
spots during the recent economic downturn. Americans saved roughly $27 billion last year through lower monthly
mortgage payments, according to Merrill Lynch senior economist Gerald D. Cohen
Loan applications dwindled in the second half of 2003 as mortgage rates moved upward. Refinancing activity
plunged 62 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers
Association. Mortgage industry employment fell by 1.8 percent in November, with lenders paring their staffs as
business softened.
Borrowers looking to lock in a low rate now are unlikely to face the kinds of delays that produced headaches and
broken rate locks during the peak of the refinancing boom.
At Chase Home Finance, a unit of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., turnaround times for refinances have shrunk to 30
to 60 days. During the height of the refinancing boom, they were running 60 to 90 days.
Back to the bank
Thinking of refinancing? Consider these factors:
 Mortgage rates are at their lowest level since July with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 5.82 percent.
 While rates were lower last summer, roughly 45 percent of homeowners can still profitably refinance.
 Adjustable-rate mortgages make sense for people who plan to move in a few years.