Download Limiting long term illness

Limiting long term illness
People aged 65 and over with a limiting long-term illness, by age (65-74, 75-84, 85 and over), projected to 2030
England
People aged 65-74 with a limiting long-term illness
People aged 75-84 with a limiting long-term illness
People aged 85 and over with a limiting long-term illness
Total population aged 65 and over with a limiting long-term
illness
2009
1,761,315
1,540,212
659,536
2015
2,090,785
1,685,414
771,783
2020
2,190,719
1,884,861
900,719
2025
2,200,086
2,238,888
1,093,264
2030
2,466,484
2,360,059
1,322,959
3,961,063
4,547,982
4,976,299
5,532,239
6,149,502
North East
People aged 65-74 with a limiting long-term illness
People aged 75-84 with a limiting long-term illness
People aged 85 and over with a limiting long-term illness
Total population aged 65 and over with a limiting long-term
illness
2009
115,280
91,754
31,598
2015
133,477
99,529
37,741
2020
143,394
106,176
44,763
2025
145,526
124,871
54,535
2030
158,368
135,139
63,897
238,632
270,748
294,333
324,932
357,404
Northumberland
People aged 65-74 with a limiting long-term illness
People aged 75-84 with a limiting long-term illness
People aged 85 and over with a limiting long-term illness
Total population aged 65 and over with a limiting long-term
illness
2009
14,122
11,512
4,189
2015
17,448
13,014
5,181
2020
18,787
14,793
6,283
2025
18,700
18,186
7,827
2030
19,953
19,576
9,590
29,823
35,642
39,863
44,713
49,119
Figures may not sum due to rounding
Figures from POPPI Crown copyright 2008
Notes
Figures are taken from Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2001 Census, Standard Tables, Table S016 Sex and age by general
health and limiting long-term illness. The most recent census information is for year 2001 (the next census will be conducted in
2011).
Numbers have been calculated by applying percentages of people with a limiting long-term illness in 2001 to projected population
figures.
Hearing impairment
People aged 65 and over predicted to have a moderate or severe, or profound, hearing impairment, by gender and by
age (65-74, 75-84 and 85 and over), projected to 2030
England
People aged 65-74 predicted to have a moderate or
severe hearing impairment
People aged 75-84 predicted to have a moderate or
severe hearing impairment
People aged 85 and over predicted to have a moderate or
severe hearing impairment
Total people aged 65 and over predicted to have a
moderate or severe hearing impairment
People aged 65-74 predicted to have a profound hearing
impairment
People aged 75-84 predicted to have a profound hearing
impairment
People aged 85 and over predicted to have a profound
hearing impairment
Total people aged 65 and over predicted to have a
profound hearing impairment
North East
People aged 65-74 predicted to have a moderate or
severe hearing impairment
People aged 75-84 predicted to have a moderate or
severe hearing impairment
People aged 85 and over predicted to have a moderate or
severe hearing impairment
Total people aged 65 and over predicted to have a
moderate or severe hearing impairment
People aged 65-74 predicted to have a profound hearing
impairment
2009
2015
2020
2025
2030
836,249
993,278
1,040,446
1,045,517
1,172,006
1,798,763
1,966,598
2,198,522
2,611,086
2,752,324
979,529
1,146,370
1,337,913
1,624,111
1,965,390
3,614,542
4,106,246
4,576,881
5,280,714
5,889,720
26,851
31,843
33,380
33,490
37,554
18,293
19,775
21,996
26,077
27,494
49,785
57,572
66,604
80,386
96,999
94,929
109,191
121,981
139,953
162,046
2015
2020
2025
2030
2009
44,318
51,392
55,271
55,995
60,859
96,174
104,300
111,153
130,815
141,496
45,835
54,754
65,032
79,129
92,716
186,326
210,446
231,457
265,939
295,071
1,429
1,647
1,770
1,798
1,962
People aged 75-84 predicted to have a profound hearing
impairment
People aged 85 and over predicted to have a profound
hearing impairment
Total people aged 65 and over predicted to have a
profound hearing impairment
Northumberland
People aged 65-74 predicted to have a moderate or
severe hearing impairment
People aged 75-84 predicted to have a moderate or
severe hearing impairment
People aged 85 and over predicted to have a moderate or
severe hearing impairment
Total people aged 65 and over predicted to have a
moderate or severe hearing impairment
People aged 65-74 predicted to have a profound hearing
impairment
People aged 75-84 predicted to have a profound hearing
impairment
People aged 85 and over predicted to have a profound
hearing impairment
Total people aged 65 and over predicted to have a
profound hearing impairment
982
1,053
1,116
1,307
1,413
2,334
2,754
3,239
3,921
4,578
4,745
5,454
6,125
7,026
7,953
2009
2015
2020
2025
2030
6,247
7,732
8,325
8,293
8,841
12,881
14,551
16,470
20,255
21,995
6,451
7,895
9,678
11,971
14,774
25,578
30,178
34,473
40,520
45,609
200
247
265
264
282
131
147
165
202
219
327
396
482
593
728
658
790
912
1,058
1,230
Figures may not sum due to rounding
Figures from POPPI Crown copyright 2008
Notes
This table is based on the combined prevalence from two studies: Adrian Davis (Ed.), Hearing in Adults (1995), Whurr
Publishers Limited, and Adrian Davis et al, Health Technology Assessments 11(42):1-294 (October 2007).
Rates for moderate or severe, and profound, hearing loss are as
follows:
% males
moderate
or severe
%
females moderate
or severe
% males
profound
%
females profound
65-74
22.69
15.79
0.43
0.78
75-84
60.63
63.43
0.41
0.8
85+
85.05
84.8
3.45
4.73
Age range
Hearing loss and deafness is usually measured by finding the quietest sounds someone can hear using tones with
different frequencies – which are heard as different pitches. The person being tested is asked to respond – usually by
pressing a button – when they can hear a tone and the level of the tone is adjusted until they can just hear it. This level is
called the threshold. Thresholds are measured in units called dBHL – dB stands for ‘decibels’ and HL stands for ‘hearing
level’. Anyone with thresholds between 0 and 20 dBHL across all the frequencies is considered to have ‘normal’ hearing.
The greater the threshold level is – in dBHL – the worse the hearing loss.
Moderate deafness: People with moderate deafness have difficulty in following speech without a hearing aid. The
quietest sounds they can hear in their better ear average between 35 and 49 decibels.
Severe deafness: People with severe deafness rely a lot on lipreading, even with a hearing aid. BSL may be their first or
preferred language. The quietest sounds they can hear in their better ear average between 50 and 94 decibels.
Profound deafness: People who are profoundly deaf communicate by lipreading. BSL may be their first or preferred
language. The quietest sounds they can hear in their better ear average 95 decibels or more.
The prevalence rates have been applied to ONS population projections of the 18-64 population to give estimated
numbers predicted to have a severe or profound hearing impairment, to 2030.
Visual impairment
People aged 65-74, and 75 and over predicted to have a moderate or severe visual impairment, and people
aged 75 and over predicted to have registrable eye conditions, projected to 2030
England
People aged 65 to 74 predicted to have a moderate or
severe visual impairment
People aged over 75 predicted to have a moderate or
severe visual impairment
People aged over 75 predicted to have registrable eye
conditions
North East
People aged 65 to 74 predicted to have a moderate or
severe visual impairment
People aged over 75 predicted to have a moderate or
severe visual impairment
People aged over 75 predicted to have registrable eye
conditions
Northumberland
People aged 65 to 74 predicted to have a moderate or
severe visual impairment
People aged over 75 predicted to have a moderate or
severe visual impairment
People aged over 75 predicted to have registrable eye
conditions
Figures may not sum due to rounding
Figures from POPPI Crown copyright 2008
Notes
2009
2015
2020
2025
2030
1,831
2,262
2,436
2,425
2,587
3,509
4,067
4,712
5,816
6,522
1,811
2,099
2,432
3,002
3,366
2009
2015
2020
2025
2030
13,020
15,075
16,195
16,436
17,886
25,866
28,793
31,670
37,646
41,776
13,350
14,861
16,346
19,430
21,562
2009
2015
2020
2025
2030
1,831
2,262
2,436
2,425
2,587
3,509
4,067
4,712
5,816
6,522
1,811
2,099
2,432
3,002
3,366
Figures are taken from 'The number of people in the UK with a visual impairment: the use of research evidence
and official statistics to estimate and describe the size of the visually impaired population', Nigel Charles, RNIB,
July 2006.
The overall prevalence of all causes of visual impairment in those aged 65-74 years and over with visual acuity
(VA) of less than 6/18 (moderate or severe) is 5.6%, and 12.4% for those aged over 75. VA of less than 6/18 is
largely used as the point which approximates to the statutory threshold for qualifying as registered severely sight
impaired (blind) or registered sight impaired (partially sighted).
Of those aged 75 and over, approximately half have cataracts or refractive error (i.e. correctable sight loss) and
if these are excluded, the prevalence estimate of those with 'registrable' eye conditions is 6.4% in this age
group. A small proportion have both cataracts and some other registrable cause of vision impairment and these
are included within this figure.
Age related macular degeneration is the most common cause of registerable sight loss in older
people.
The prevalence rates have been applied to ONS population projections of the 65 and over population to give
estimated numbers of people predicted to have visual impairment to 2030.
Mobility
People aged 65 and over unable to manage at least one mobility activity on their own, by gender and by age group (6569, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84 and 85 and over), projected to 2030. Activities include: going out of doors and walking down the
road; getting up and down stairs; getting around the house on the level; getting to the toilet; getting in and out of bed
England
2009
2015
2020
2025
2030
200,073
251,495
229,634
250,834
286,581
267,724
295,570
362,122
332,258
363,974
281,706
307,053
339,333
418,638
386,505
302,435
325,347
366,048
411,253
511,451
People aged 65-69 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 70-74 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 75-79 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 80-84 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 85 and over unable to manage at least one
activity on their own
Total people aged 65 and over unable to manage at least
one activity on their own
520,765
601,355
694,950
838,160
1,011,015
1,572,703
1,780,820
1,992,087
2,251,143
2,559,526
North East
2009
2015
2020
2025
2030
10,308
13,235
12,389
13,466
14,637
14,748
14,958
18,904
17,782
19,462
15,423
16,473
16,866
21,483
20,382
15,766
17,116
19,021
19,902
25,547
24,420
28,770
33,800
40,885
47,715
80,665
90,552
100,980
113,518
127,743
People aged 65-69 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 70-74 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 75-79 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 80-84 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 85 and over unable to manage at least one
activity on their own
Total people aged 65 and over unable to manage at least
one activity on their own
Northumberland
2009
People aged 65-69 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 70-74 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 75-79 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 80-84 unable to manage at least one activity
on their own
People aged 85 and over unable to manage at least one
activity on their own
Total people aged 65 and over unable to manage at least
one activity on their own
2015
2020
2025
2030
1,498
1,984
1,838
1,949
2,086
1,990
2,238
2,874
2,670
2,842
2,043
2,298
2,565
3,309
3,114
2,127
2,380
2,709
3,092
4,036
3,425
4,140
5,025
6,180
7,590
11,083
13,040
15,011
17,200
19,668
Figures may not sum due to rounding
Figures from POPPI Crown copyright 2008
Notes
Rates for those who are unable to manage at least one of the mobility tasks listed are as follows:
Age range
% males
%
females
65-69
8
9
70-74
10
16
75-79
12
21
80-84
18
29
85+
35
50
Figures are taken from Living in Britain Survey (2001), table 29.
The prevalence rates have been applied to ONS population projections of the 65 and over population to give estimated
numbers predicted to be unable to manage at least one of the mobility tasks listed, to 2030.
LD - Baseline estimates
People aged 65-74, 75-84 and 85 and over predicted to have a learning disability
England
People aged 65-74 predicted to have a learning disability
People aged 75-84 predicted to have a learning disability
People aged 85 and over predicted to have a learning
disability
Total population aged 65 and over predicted to have a
learning disability
2009
94,768
57,483
2015
111,991
63,346
2020
118,621
71,217
2025
118,406
85,201
2030
132,586
89,905
21,718
25,739
30,354
37,225
45,509
173,969
201,075
220,192
240,833
268,001
North East
People aged 65-74 predicted to have a learning disability
People aged 75-84 predicted to have a learning disability
People aged 85 and over predicted to have a learning
disability
Total population aged 65 and over predicted to have a
learning disability
2009
5,041
3,078
2015
5,788
3,360
2020
6,287
3,599
2025
6,350
4,271
2030
6,912
4,626
1,016
1,229
1,473
1,814
2,147
9,135
10,377
11,360
12,434
13,685
Northumberland
People aged 65-74 predicted to have a learning disability
People aged 75-84 predicted to have a learning disability
People aged 85 and over predicted to have a learning
disability
Total population aged 65 and over predicted to have a
learning disability
2009
707
412
2015
869
469
2020
947
536
2025
938
664
2030
1,001
715
143
179
220
276
342
1,262
1,517
1,702
1,878
2,058
Figures may not sum due to rounding
Figures from POPPI Crown copyright 2008
Notes
These predictions are based on prevalence rates in a report by Eric Emerson and Chris Hatton of the Institute
for Health Research, Lancaster University, entitled Estimating Future Need/Demand for Supports for Adults
with Learning Disabilities in England, June 2004. The authors take the prevalence base rates and adjust these
rates to take account of ethnicity (i.e. the increased prevalence of learning disabilities in South Asian
communities) and of mortality (i.e. both increased survival rates of young people with severe and complex
disabilities and reduced mortality among older adults with learning disabilities). Therefore, figures are based on
an estimate of prevalence across the national population; locally this will produce an over-estimate in
communities with a low South Asian community, and an under-estimate in communities with a high South
Asian community.
Prediction rates have been applied to ONS population projections of the 65 and over population in the years
2011 and 2021 and linear trends projected to give estimated numbers predicted to have a mild, moderate or
severe learning disability, to 2030.
Predictions of the numbers of people with a learning disability for 2011 and 2021 are as follows:
Age range
% in
2011
% in
2021
65-69
2.01
2.02
70-74
2.34
2.33
75-79
2.07
2.08
80+
1.89
1.93