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0 Global Financial Regulatory Reform: Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) Robert Rennhack Assistant Director Western Hemisphere Departament International Monetary Fund October2009 1 Advanced Countries—Reasons for Reform Financial system and global economy overexposed to risk by current focus on close supervision of banks, combined with market discipline and self-regulation to monitor non-banks. Resolution strategy in several countries, including U.S., has left financial system exposed to moral hazard. Reforms aim to mitigate systemic risk without stifling financial innovation through excessive and inefficient regulation. Effective financial regulation requires strong political backing. 2 Advanced countries–Key reform priorities Expand the perimeter of regulation by re-evaluating what is considered a systemic institution and impose stronger regulation. Better cross-border and cross-functional regulation. Reduce procyclicality of regulatory and institutional practices. Strengthen public disclosure practices for systemically important financial institutions and markets. Give greater flexibility to monetary policy to focus more on credit and asset price booms. 3 Reform for LAC?—Resilience Improved legal framework for supervision Capital to Assets Ratio (in percent) 20.0 19.0 Caribbean 18.0 Other 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 Reasonable capital cushion 13.0 Central America 12.0 Major Latin American countries 11.0 10.0 2000 2001 Falling nonperforming loans 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 Nonperforming Loans (As percent of total loans) 14.0 12.0 Solid funding base 10.0 Caribbean Other 8.0 6.0 Relatively high returns Major Latin American countries 4.0 2.0 Central America 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 4 Broader Regulatory Perimeter Strong regulation should apply to any financial institution, not just banks, that can threaten the financial system. Systemic institution—interconnected, such as: any large financial institution (including off-balance sheet items); key role in the financial infrastructure: high leverage; group of small financial institutions that may be collectively systemic if they move together during a crisis; or 5 Broader Regulatory Perimeter In most LAC countries, potential for systemic risk from many non-bank financial institutions insurance companies; financial conglomerates; cooperatives; investment and mutual funds; retail chains (such as supermarkets) that issue credit cards. Broader Regulatory Perimeter—Policy Options Improve methodologies for assessing systemic risks. Systemic institutions would face tougher norms, such as for capital adequacy, leverage and liquidity, to contain moral hazard. Single systemic risk regulator? Lighter touch for non-systemic institutions to foster innovation. Example, subject hedge funds to registration and disclosure requirements. 6 7 More effective consolidated supervision Supervisors could not see links among financial institutions and instruments. Especially for large complex financial institutions that operated in many different financial markets and countries. These institutions tended to operate under the least intrusive regulations available. 8 More effective consolidated supervision In the LAC region, many countries have strengthened their legal frameworks for consolidated supervision. However, supervisors often cannot: monitor all institutions; and enforce regulations and require prompt corrective action for all institutions within a conglomerate. Cross-border supervision also matters in many countries, where international banks have a significant presence. 9 More effective consolidated supervision Apply prudential requirements to all parts of a financial group, not just some of the individual affiliates. Mandate exchange of information and create institutional mechanisms to build closer cooperation. Form cross-country regulatory colleges to deal with global banks—full information sharing, harmonization of norms across countries and a clear assignment of responsibilities. 10 Reduce Procyclicality Features of regulatory frameworks may have exacerbated excessive credit growth pre-crisis and rapid deleveraging. Possible culprits: Capital adequacy guidelines under Pillar 1 of the Basel II framework. Loan loss provisioning linked to the payment history on loans. Fair value accounting (FVA) or “mark to market”. 11 Reduce Procyclicality In much of the LAC region Credit Growth to the Private Sector (In percent) 40 Backward-looking loan loss provisions. Other 35 Central America 30 25 20 Use of collateral-based lending. Major Latin American countries 15 10 Basel II capital adequacy requirements. Caribbean 5 0 -5 2000 Use of FVA. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Reduce Procyclicality—Policy Options Make capital adequacy requirements countercyclical— adjustments of capital charges; issue convertible debt. Introduce dynamic provisioning requirements, as in Spain, Bolivia, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay; Retain FVA but with buffers, limited flexibility. 12 13 Improve Information In advanced countries, poor understanding of risk exposures and linkages across borders and markets of financial institutions. In LAC region, Little or no reporting of off-balance sheet operations of banks; transactions by the non-bank affiliates of a financial conglomerate; or the activities of lightly regulated non-banks. Poor information on macrofinancial linkages. 14 Improve Information Develop much better information on the linkages between macroeconomic developments and the financial sector. Stronger public disclosure by systemic financial institutions. For countries moving toward the Basel II prudential framework, systemic financial institutions need to disclose their risk management practices and models used to value risk. Improve the transparency of derivative markets and require exchange trading of derivatives (Chile, Colombia, Mexico). 15 Role of Global Banks Foreign Banks' Lending as a Share of GDP, 2008 1/ (Percent) Effect of tougher prudential norms in home country? 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Asia emergente África y Medio Oriente Europa emergente Bolivia Ecuador Venezuela Colombia Argentina Brasil Uruguay Perú Paraguay Amplify or dampen effects of global crisis? República Dominicana México 0 Costa Rica Optimal share of banking system? Chile Sources: Bank for International Settlements; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Includes cross-border lending and lending by foreign-owned local affiliates in each country. Note: Regional data correspond to the median across countries. 16 Reform for LAC? Look closely at steps to broaden the regulatory perimeter. Improve consolidated supervision Reduce procylicality of prudential regulations may be advisable. Strengthen public disclosure of information. Move cautiously on broader mandate for monetary policy. 17 Thank you for your attention