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© OECD/IEA, 2013
PART A
GLOBAL
ENERGY
TRENDS
PART B
BRAZIL
ENERGY
OUTLOOK
PART C
OUTLOOK
FOR OIL
MARKETS
ANNEXES
SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
1
GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2035
2
NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK
3
COAL MARKET OUTLOOK
4
POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK
5
RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
6
ENERGY EFFICIENCY OUTLOOK
7
ENERGY AND COMPETITIVENESS
8
THE BRAZILIAN ENERGY SECTOR TODAY
9
PROSPECTS FOR BRAZIL’S DOMESTIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION
10
BRAZILIAN RESOURCES AND SUPPLY POTENTIAL
11
IMPLICATIONS OF BRAZIL’S ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
12
FROM OIL RESOURCES TO RESERVES
13
PROSPECTS FOR OIL SUPPLY
14
PROSPECTS FOR OIL DEMAND
15
IMPLICATIONS FOR OIL REFINING AND TRADE
16
ANNEXES
© OECD/IEA, 2013
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Executive Summary
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Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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Scope and methodology
33
Scope of report
Introducing the scenarios
Building blocks of the scenarios
Economic growth
Population and demographics
Energy prices
Oil prices
Natural gas prices
Steam coal prices
Carbon markets
Technology
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Global energy trends to 2035
55
Overview of energy trends by scenario
Energy trends in the New Policies Scenario
Energy demand
Energy supply
Inter-regional energy trade
Implications for energy-related CO2 emissions
Topics in focus
Energy trends in Southeast Asia
Modern energy for all
Energy subsidies
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71
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83
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93
Natural gas market outlook
99
Global overview
Demand
Regional trends
Sectoral trends
Production
Resources and reserves
Production trends
Focus on unconventional gas
Trade, pricing and investment
Inter-regional trade
Pricing of internationally traded gas
Investment
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105
107
107
108
115
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Coal market outlook
139
Overview
Demand
Regional trends
Sectoral trends
Supply
Resources and reserves
Production
Trade
Costs and investment
Pricing of internationally traded coal
Regional insights
China
United States
India
Australia
ASEAN
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Power sector outlook
169
Introduction
Electricity demand
Electricity supply
Capacity retirements and additions
Fossil-fuelled generation
Nuclear power
Renewables
Transmission and distribution
CO2 emissions
Investment
Electricity prices
Residential
Industry
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Renewable energy outlook
197
Recent developments
Renewables outlook by scenario
Renewables outlook by use in the New Policies Scenario
Power generation
Biofuels
Heat
Focus on power generation from variable renewables
Wind power
Solar photovoltaics
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Implications for electricity systems and markets
Competitiveness and unit costs
Bioenergy
Investment
Subsidies
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221
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Energy efficiency outlook
231
Introduction
Current status of energy efficiency
Recent progress
Recent policy developments
Recent sectoral trends
The outlook for energy efficiency
Trends by region
Trends by sector
Investment in energy efficiency
Broader benefits
Energy imports
Impact on total household expenditure
Local air pollution
CO2 emissions
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Energy and competitiveness
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Energy and international competitiveness
Energy price disparities
Just how big are regional disparities in energy prices?
How are regional energy price disparities set to evolve?
Energy and industrial competitiveness
Why do energy price disparities affect industrial competitiveness?
How does carbon pricing affect industrial competitiveness?
Focus on chemicals
Focus on iron and steel
Focus on refining
The outlook for industrial energy and competitiveness
Focus on the outlook for chemicals
Energy and economic competitiveness
What is the impact of energy price disparities on overall trade balances?
What is the impact of energy price disparities on household income?
Energy competitiveness and policy implications
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World Energy Outlook 2013
Part B: BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK
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The Brazilian energy sector today
303
Introducing Brazil’s energy sector
Domestic energy trends
Power sector
Bioenergy
Oil and gas
Energy-related CO2 emissions and energy efficiency
Regional and global interactions
Projecting future developments
The building blocks
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Prospects for Brazil’s domestic energy consumption
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Domestic energy consumption trends
Outlook for the power sector
Electricity demand
Electricity generation
Transmission and distribution
Investment
Outlook for other energy-consuming sectors
Industry
Transport
Buildings
Other sectors (agriculture, non-energy use)
Outlook by fuel
Oil products
Natural gas
Renewables
Coal
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Brazilian resources and supply potential
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Oil and gas
Resources and reserves
Oil production
Gas production
Renewables
Hydropower
Biofuels
Other bioenergy
Wind
Solar
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Other fuels
Coal
Nuclear
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Implications of Brazil’s energy development
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Context for Brazilian energy development
Energy and the Brazilian economy
Pricing
Revenues
Energy trade and security
Regional co-operation
Brazil and international oil and gas markets
Brazil and international biofuels trade
Energy and the environment
Energy-related emissions
Energy efficiency
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Part C: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS
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From oil resources to reserves
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Classifying oil
Conventional oil
Resources
Reserves
Enabling technologies: focus on enhanced oil recovery
Unconventional oil
Resources
Reserves
Enabling technologies
Supply costs
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Prospects for oil supply
457
Global oil supply trends
Decline rate analysis
The importance of decline
Decline rates for conventional oil
Decline rates for unconventional oil
Implications for future production
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Oil production by type
Focus on light tight oil
Oil production by region
Non-OPEC
OPEC
Supply trends and potential implications for prices
A Low Oil-Price Case
Upstream industry structure
Investment
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Prospects for oil demand
501
Global oil demand trends
Oil demand by region
Focus on the Middle East
Oil demand by sector
Transport
Industry
Other sectors
Oil demand by product
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521
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Implications for oil refining and trade
535
Making the connection between oil demand and supply
Products bypassing the refining sector
Natural gas liquids
The refining sector
Global refining outlook
Refining sector outlook by region
Oil trade
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ANNEXES
Annex A.
Annex B.
Annex C.
Annex D.
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Tables for Scenario Projections
Policies and measures by scenario
Definitions
References
Table of Contents
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List of figures
3.4
Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
3.5
3.6
Figures for Chapter 1: Scope and methodology
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Primary energy demand and GDP
GDP per capita by region
Natural gas prices by region in the New Policies Scenario
Current and proposed schemes that put a price on carbon
Figures for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2035
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.10
2.11
2.12
2.13
2.14
2.15
2.16
2.17
2.18
2.19
World primary energy demand and related CO2 emissions by scenario
Change in world primary energy demand by scenario, 2011-2035
Primary energy demand and energy intensity in the New Policies Scenario
Change in oil demand in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario
World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
Share of world primary energy demand by region
Primary energy demand in selected regions and the share
of global growth in the New Policies Scenario
Share of the growth in world primary energy demand by region
in the New Policies Scenario
Change in energy demand by sector and fuel in the New Policies Scenario,
2011-2035
Fossil energy resources by type
Change in production by fuel in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario
Net oil and gas import/export shares in selected regions
in the New Policies Scenario
Change in world energy-related CO2 emissions by policy measure
in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario
Energy-related CO2 emissions by region in the New Policies Scenario
Energy-related CO2 emissions per capita and CO2 intensity in selected
regions in the New Policies Scenario
Energy in Southeast Asia
Shares of population with access to electricity and clean cooking
facilities by region in the New Policies Scenario
Economic value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies by fuel
for top 25 countries, 2012
Rates of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies in 2012 and recent developments
in selected countries
Figures for Chapter 3: Natural gas market outlook
3.1
3.2
3.3
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3.8
3.9
3.10
3.11
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3.12
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3.14
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3.13
Figures for Chapter 4: Coal market outlook
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.10
4.11
4.12
4.13
4.14
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Incremental world coal demand, historical and by scenario
Coal demand by key region in the New Policies Scenario
Coal demand by key sector in the New Policies Scenario
Reserves and cumulative production by major coking and steam coal
producers in the New Policies Scenario
FOB cash costs for seaborne steam coal exports, 2012
Quarterly indices for IEA crude oil and steam coal prices
China’s electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario
Coal demand in China and the rest of the world by major sector
in the New Policies Scenario
Average costs of steam coal delivered to coastal China, 2012
US production cash costs for domestic steam coal, 2012
US net exports of coal in the New Policies Scenario
Major net importers of coal in the New Policies Scenario
Australian coal exports by type in the New Policies Scenario
ASEAN coal balance in the New Policies Scenario
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Figures for Chapter 5: Power sector outlook
5.1
Natural gas demand and production growth in selected regions, 2005-2012
Natural gas demand in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario
World natural gas demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA, 2013
3.7
Change in annual natural gas production in selected countries
in the New Policies Scenario
Remaining unconventional gas resources in selected regions, end-2012
Growth in unconventional gas production by type in selected regions
in the New Policies Scenario
Unconventional gas production by selected country in the New Policies
Scenario
European Union natural gas supply and demand balance
in the New Policies Scenario
China natural gas supply and demand balance in the New Policies Scenario
Estimated shares of internationally traded gas by type of pricing mechanism
Regional gas prices in the New Policies Scenario and in the Gas Price
Convergence Case
Differences in gas consumption between the Gas Price Convergence Case
and the New Policies Scenario
Change in import volumes and imports bills for selected regions
in the Gas Price Convergence Case, relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2035
Cumulative investment in natural gas supply infrastructure by region
in the New Policies Scenario
5.2
5.3
5.4
World electricity demand by scenario relative to electricity demand
assuming no change in electricity intensity
Electricity demand per capita in selected regions as a share
of the OECD average in the New Policies Scenario
Electricity generation by source in the New Policies Scenario
Installed capacity by source in the New Policies Scenario
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5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.10
5.11
5.12
5.13
5.14
5.15
5.16
5.17
5.18
Age profile of installed thermal capacity by region, end-2012
Power generation gross capacity additions and retirements by selected
region in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2035
Power capacity changes in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario
Coal-fired power generation by region in the New Policies Scenario
Share of coal-fired power generation by technology and average efficiency
in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario
Gas-fired power generation by selected region in the New Policies Scenario
Electricity generating costs for coal and gas by selected region
and for 2008-2012 fuel prices
Nuclear power installed capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario
Renewables-based power generation and share of total generation
by region in the New Policies Scenario
Existing and additional kilometres of transmission and distribution lines
by selected region in the New Policies Scenario
CO2 emissions intensity in the power sector and electricity generation
by region in the New Policies Scenario
Power sector cumulative investment by type and region
in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2035
Average residential electricity prices (excluding taxes) by region
and cost component in the New Policies Scenario
Average industry electricity prices (excluding taxes) by region
and cost component in the New Policies Scenario
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6.11
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6.12
6.13
6.14
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6.15
6.16
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6.17
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Figures for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook
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Figures for Chapter 6: Renewable energy outlook
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.10
Renewable energy share in total primary energy demand
by category and region in the New Policies Scenario, 2011 and 2035
Incremental electricity generation from renewables in selected regions,
2011-2035
Average annual increases in renewables-based capacity by region
in the New Policies Scenario
Cumulative global renewables-based capacity additions and retirements
by technology in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2035
Share of renewables in heat production in the residential sector
for selected regions in the New Policy Scenario
Installed wind power capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario
Installed solar PV capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario
Indicative hourly electricity demand and residual electricity
demand with expanding deployment of solar PV
Shares of wind and solar power capacity and generation
in the New Policies scenario
Indicative breakeven costs of residential solar PV using the “grid parity”
and “cost parity” approaches
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Renewable electricity production costs relative to the wholesale prices
for selected technologies and regions in the New Policies Scenario
World bioenergy use by sector in the New Policies Scenario
Biofuels demand and production in selected regions
Cumulative investment in renewables-based power generation capacity,
2013-2035
Global renewable energy subsidies by source in the New Policies Scenario
Global subsidies for renewable electricity generation and generation
by source in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2035
Renewables-based generation subsidies by source and selected region
in the New Policies Scenario
7.1
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Proportion of long-term economic energy efficiency potential achieved
in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035
7.2
Primary energy intensity levels and trends in selected regions, 2012
7.3
Annual relative change in global primary energy intensity by driver, 1990-2012
7.4
Energy intensity change by sector and region, 2005-2012
7.5
Change in global primary energy demand by category in the New Policies
Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario
7.6a Energy intensity by region in the New Policies Scenario
7.6b Primary energy savings by region in the New Policies Scenario relative
to the Current Policies Scenario in 2035
7.7
Primary energy savings from energy efficiency by fuel and sector
in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario in 2035
7.8
Energy intensity reduction in the iron and steel sector by type of improvement,
2011-2035
7.9
Fuel savings from energy efficiency in road transport in the New Policies
Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario
7.10a Energy consumption by end-use in households by region
in the New Policies Scenario, 2011 and 2035
7.10b Final energy savings in households in the New Policies Scenario relative
to the Current Policies Scenario by region, 2035
7.11 Average annual energy efficiency investment by scenario and sector
7.12 Payback periods for selected technologies and regions, 2013
7.13 Avoided import bills from energy efficiency in the New Policies Scenario
relative to the Current Policies Scenario, 2035
7.14 Economic impacts of energy efficiency
7.15 Change in annual per-capita household spending on energy
and non-energy goods and services in the New Policies Scenario relative
to the Current Policies Scenario
7.16 World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the New Policies Scenario
relative to the Current Policies Scenario
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Figures for Chapter 8: Energy and competitiveness
8.1
8.2
World energy use in industry by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
Ratio of Japanese and European natural gas import prices to United States
natural gas spot price
8.3
Ratio of OECD coking to steam coal prices and Asian to European steam coal
prices
8.4
Industrial energy prices including tax by fuel and region, 2012
8.5
Average industrial energy prices including tax by region
8.6
Ratio of Japanese and European natural gas import prices to United States
natural gas spot prices in the New Policies Scenario
8.7
Industrial electricity prices by region and cost component
in the New Policies Scenario
8.8
Ratio of European Union, Japanese and Chinese to US industrial electricity
prices including tax in the New Policies Scenario
8.9
Industrial energy intensity by sub-sector and region, 2011
8.10 Share of energy in total production costs by sub-sector, 2011
8.11 Share of energy in total material costs in the United States
8.12 Value of the US dollar vis-à-vis other major currencies
8.13 Sensitivity of US industrial total material costs to CO2 prices, 2011
8.14 Share of energy in total material costs for selected chemical products
in the United States, 2012
8.15 Historical and planned ethylene capacity additions by region
8.16 World incremental energy demand by industrial sub-sector and fuel
in the New Policies Scenario
8.17 Regional shares of global export market value of energy-intensive industries
in the New Policies Scenario
8.18a Regional shares of global export market and growth in export values
by selected sector in the New Policies Scenario – Chemicals
8.18b Regional shares of global export market and growth in export values
by selected sector in the New Policies Scenario – Non-ferrous metals
8.19 Compound average annual change in chemicals energy use and production
by region in the New Policies Scenario
8.20 Overall trade balance including energy trade by region
8.21 Fossil fuel net import bills by region in the New Policies Scenario
8.22 Share of energy expenditures in household income by region
in the New Policies Scenario
8.23 Compound average annual change in industrial production, efficiency
and energy demand by scenario, 2011-2035
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9.1
9.2
Share of renewables in total primary energy demand in selected regions, 2011
Energy map of Brazil
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9.13
9.14
Brazil primary energy demand and GDP growth
Changes in income distribution in Brazil
Brazil domestic energy balance, 2011
Brazil final energy consumption by fuel in selected sectors
Brazil electricity supply by source
Brazil consumption of gasoline and ethanol in road transport
Evolution of Brazil’s proven oil and gas reserves
Brazil oil production and domestic demand
Brazil greenhouse-gas emissions by source
Energy intensity of GDP in Brazil as a share of selected regional
and global averages
Brazil self-sufficiency in natural gas and selected oil products
Brazil’s energy policy and regulatory institutions
Figures for Chapter 10: Prospects for Brazil’s domestic energy consumption
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.8
10.9
10.10
10.11
10.12
10.13
10.14
10.15
10.16
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Part B: BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK
Figures for Chapter 9: The Brazilian energy sector today
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
9.10
9.11
9.12
Brazil GDP and primary energy demand by scenario
Primary energy mix in Brazil and the world in the New Policies Scenario
Brazil electricity supply and demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario
Brazil power generation capacity additions in the New Policies Scenario
Brazil power generation by source in the New Policies Scenario
Brazil energy storage potential from hydropower reservoirs in compared
with total generation in the New Policies Scenario
Brazil indicative monthly variations in power generation by source
Brazil’s electricity sector
Brazil average annual investment in the power sector
in the New Policies Scenario
Brazil change in energy demand in selected energy-intensive
manufacturing in the New Policies Scenario, 2011-2035
Average natural gas and electricity prices to industry by component
Brazil road-transport fuel demand by type in the New Policies Scenario
Share of domestic freight transport by mode in selected regions
Brazil change in energy demand in the buildings sector in Brazil
in the New Policies Scenario, 2011-2035
Brazil natural gas demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario
Brazil consumption of non-hydro renewable energy by sector
in the New Policies Scenario
Figures for Chapter 11: Brazilian resources and supply potential
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.5
11.6
11.7
Main hydrocarbon basins in Brazil
Global discoveries of super-giant oil fields
Global deepwater oil output by company
Brazil oil production by basin in the New Policies Scenario
FPSO deployment in the New Policies Scenario and in the High Brazil Case
Evolution of local content requirements in Brazil
Main oil and gas fields and infrastructure in the Santos and Campos basins
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11.8
11.9
11.10
11.11
11.12
11.13
11.14
11.15
11.16
Brazil gas production in the New Policies Scenario
Santos Basin gas production for different gas reinjection rates
Brazil hydropower resources by river basin
Brazil hydropower potential by classification of suitability
Seasonal variation of selected renewable resources in Brazil
Brazil agricultural land assessed as suitable for sugarcane production
Biofuels production in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario
Wind power capacity and capacity factors by country, 2020 and 2035
Top ten holders of uranium resources
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13.10 Ownership of 2P (“proven-plus-probable”) oil reserves
by type of company, 2012
13.11 Distribution of proven-plus-probable reserves by region and type of company,
2012
13.12 Oil resources that are developed by scenario as a percentage of proven reserves
13.13 Estimated global EOR production by technology
13.14 Typical production profiles for LTO and EOR projects
13.15 EOR production by selected regions in the New Policies Scenario
13.16 Cumulative production versus remaining recoverable resources by type of
unconventional oil in the New Policies Scenario
13.17 Supply costs of liquid fuels
13.18 World supply cost curves for 2013 and 2035 in the New Policies Scenario
13.19 Non-OPEC supply cost curves for 2013 and 2035 in the New Policies Scenario
400
Figures for Chapter 14: Prospects for oil supply
Figures for Chapter 12: Implications of Brazil’s energy development
12.1
Average annual investment in Brazil’s energy supply infrastructure
in the New Policies Scenario
12.2 Brazil share of installed deepwater subsea equipment and FPSOs
in the New Policies Scenario, 2012 and 2020
12.3 Implications of different plateau production levels for the year
in which 50% of Brazil’s oil resources are depleted
12.4 Oil export revenue as a share of GDP in selected countries
in the New Policies Scenario
12.5 Major contributors to global oil supply growth in the New Policies Scenario,
2012-2035
12.6 Global deepwater oil production by region in the New Policies Scenario
12.7 Brazil oil balance in the New Policies Scenario
12.8 Brazil gas balance in the New Policies Scenario
12.9 CO2 per capita and CO2 intensity of GDP in selected regions in the New
Policies Scenario
12.10 Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector, 2035
12.11 Brazil potential for energy efficiency savings by end-use sector relative
to the New Policies Scenario, 2035
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14.2
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14.3
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14.4
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Part C: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS
Figures for Chapter 13: From oil resources to reserves
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
13.5
13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9
Classification of oil resources
Classification of liquid fuels
Ultimately recoverable conventional crude oil resources and cumulative
production required in the New Policies Scenario
Conventional crude oil resources by field size and year of discovery
Estimated conventional crude oil resources by field size
Observed discovery rates and average discovery size
Global exploration spending, 2000-2012
Evolution of published proven reserves for selected OPEC countries
Non-OPEC conventional crude oil proven reserves, 1980-2012
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14.5
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.9
14.10
14.11
14.12
14.13
14.14
14.15
14.16
14.17
14.18
Indicative illustration of decline phases and concepts
Observed year-on-year decline rate and weighted average CADR
for conventional oil fields
Estimated difference between natural and observed decline rates
in currently producing conventional fields
Typical production curve for a light tight oil well compared
with a conventional oil well
Decline in production of conventional crude from currently producing
fields in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario
Production that would be observed from all currently producing
fields in the absence of further investment (excluding NGLs)
Projected evolution of natural decline rates in key regions
in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035
Shares of world oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario
Production of NGLs in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario
Unconventional oil production in the New Policies Scenario
LTO production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario
Projected LTO and NGLs production from unconventional plays
in the United States in the New Policies Scenario
Change in oil production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario,
2012-2035
Oil production changes by OPEC/non-OPEC grouping
in the New Policies Scenario
Oil price and oil demand trajectories in the Low Oil-Price Case compared
with the New Policies Scenario
Contributions to meeting the additional demand in the Low Oil-Price Case
relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2035
Oil production by selected resource and company type, 2012
Oil production by company type in the New Policies Scenario
434
434
437
442
443
445
446
454
455
456
461
463
465
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469
470
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14.19 Global share of oil production and investment by region in the New Policies
Scenario
14.20 Worldwide upstream oil and gas investment and the IEA Upstream
Investment Cost Index
Figures for Chapter 15: Prospects for oil demand
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.7
15.8
15.9
15.10
15.11
15.12
15.13
15.14
15.15
15.16
15.17
15.18
15.19
15.20
15.21
World oil demand and oil intensity by scenario
Growth in world oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035
Oil consumption subsidies and oil demand per capita by selected countries
in the Middle East, 2012
Oil demand by sector in the Middle East
Electricity generating costs by technologies in the Middle East, 2015
Impact of fuel switching and efficiency on global oil demand
in the New Policies Scenario
World oil demand for transport by sub-sector in the New Policies Scenario
PLDV vehicle fleet growth by region in the New Policies Scenario
Fuel mix in road-transport energy demand in the New Policies Scenario
Estimated payback periods of LNG-powered long-haul trucks
in selected markets, 2011 and 2020
Natural gas demand for road transport by selected regions
in the New Policies Scenario
Change of industrial oil demand (excluding feedstocks) by driver
in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035
Production of high-value chemicals in the New Policies Scenario
Demand for oil as petrochemical feedstock by region
in the New Policies Scenario
Simplified principal petrochemical product chains
Change in demand for oil by product in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035
LPG demand in the New Policies Scenario
Gasoline demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
Diesel demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario
World diesel demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario
Heavy fuel oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario
Figures for Chapter 16: Implications for oil refining and trade
16.1
16.2a
16.2b
16.3
16.4
16.5
16.6
16.7
World oil production by quality in the New Policies Scenario
World liquids supply in the New Policies Scenario, 2012 and 2035 – 2012
World liquids supply in the New Policies Scenario, 2012 and 2035 – 2035
Routes to market for NGLs by process in the New Policies Scenario
NGLs product yields in the New Policies Scenario
Outputs from simple distillation versus final product demand
World refining capacity
Changes in refinery runs and changes in demand in the New Policies Scenario,
2012-2035
497
499
16.9
16.10
502
504
16.11
16.12
506
507
508
16.13
16.14
16.15
509
512
513
515
16.16
517
519
522
523
524
525
530
531
532
533
533
534
16.17
16.18
16.19
16.20
16.21
16.22
16.23
16.24
16.25
16.26
Selected regions shown by their net trade position in crude oil and oil products,
2012
European product demand split compared with the rest of the world, 2012
European dependence on trade for selected transport fuels
in the New Policies Scenario
Share of imported crude in North American and European refinery runs
European refining capacity, demand and oil production
in the New Policies Scenario
North American gasoline and diesel balances in the New Policies Scenario
North American trade of LPG and naphtha in the New Policies Scenario
Crude oil trade in selected Asian countries and regions
in the New Policies Scenario
Refinery runs and demand in selected Asian countries and regions
in the New Policies Scenario
Oil product trade balance in selected Asian regions in the New Policies Scenario
Allocation of Russian crude oil and condensate production in the New Policies
Scenario
Main oil product yields in Russian refineries in the New Policies Scenario
Changes in refinery runs and exports in Iraq and the rest
of the Middle East in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035
Middle East trade of selected oil products in the New Policies Scenario
Crude export and refinery runs in selected crude oil-exporting countries
and regions in the New Policies Scenario
Net oil imports in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario
Net oil trade in North America in the New Policies Scenario
Combined crude oil trade balance of Middle East and Asia
in the New Policies Scenario
Crude oil imports by region and source in the New Policies Scenario
536
538
538
539
540
541
542
546
547
548
549
550
551
553
554
555
556
556
557
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559
560
561
562
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List of tables
Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Tables for Chapter 1: Scope and methodology
World Energy Outlook 2013
© OECD/IEA, 2013
16.8
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Overview of key assumptions and energy prices in the New Policies Scenario
Real GDP growth assumptions by region
Population assumptions by region
Fossil fuel import prices by scenario
CO2 price assumptions in selected regions by scenario
Recent progress and key conditions for faster deployment
of clean energy technologies
Tables for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2035
2.1
36
40
42
48
51
52
World primary energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario
58
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2.2
2.3
2.4
World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
Number of people without access to modern energy services by region, 2011
Number of people without access to modern energy services by region
in the New Policies Scenario, 2011 and 2030
Tables for Chapter 3: Natural gas market outlook
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
Natural gas demand and production by region and scenario
Natural gas demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region,
end-2012
Natural gas production by region in the New Policies Scenario
Global production of unconventional gas in the New Policies Scenario
Net natural gas trade by region in the New Policies Scenario (pipeline and LNG)
Indicative range of cost estimates for conversion and inter-regional
transportation for LNG, 2020
Tables for Chapter 4: Coal market outlook
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
Coal demand, production and trade by scenario
Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
Coal production by region in the New Policies Scenario
Inter-regional coal trade in the New Policies Scenario
5.3
5.4
5.5
Electricity demand by region and scenario
World electricity demand by sector and generation
in the New Policies Scenario
Electricity generation by source and scenario
Cumulative capacity retirements by region and source in the New Policies
Scenario, 2013-2035
Cumulative gross capacity additions by region and source in the New Policies
Scenario, 2013-2035
Tables for Chapter 6: Renewable energy outlook
6.1
6.2
6.3
91
100
103
108
109
117
124
133
141
145
149
150
Tables for Chapter 5: Power sector outlook
5.1
5.2
69
89
World renewable energy use by type and scenario
Renewables-based electricity generation by region
in the New Policies Scenario
Ethanol and biodiesel consumption in road transport by region
in the New Policies Scenario
172
173
175
Tables for Chapter 8: Energy and competitiveness
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
Share of industry in final energy use by fuel and region, 2011
Share of tax in industrial energy prices in selected countries, 2012
Indicators of significance of industry to the economy by subsector and region
Typology of main energy-intensive industries
Tables for Chapter 9: The Brazilian energy sector today
9.1
9.2
GDP and population indicators and assumptions
Main policy assumptions for Brazil in the New Policies Scenario
Tables for Chapter 10: Prospects for Brazil’s domestic energy consumption
10.1
10.2
10.3
Brazil total primary energy demand by fuel and scenario
Brazil final energy consumption by sector in the New Policies Scenario
Brazil oil demand by product in the New Policies Scenario
Tables for Chapter 11: Brazilian resources and supply potential
11.1
11.2
11.3
Brazil conventional oil resources by region
Brazil gas resources by region
Indicative oil development and production costs in selected regions
Tables for Chapter 12: Implications of Brazil’s energy development
179
Part C: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS
200
Brazil supply-demand balance by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
Tables for Chapter 13: From oil resources to reserves
202
13.1
13.2
13.3
205
Tables for Chapter 14: Prospects for oil supply
World Energy Outlook 2013
248
250
264
271
277
280
Part B: BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK
12.1
Selected energy efficiency policies announced or introduced in 2012 and 2013
239
Key energy efficiency assumptions in major regions in the New Policies Scenarios 244
Savings in industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions from energy efficiency
in the New Policies scenario
246
© OECD/IEA, 2013
7.5
Savings in transport energy demand and CO2 emissions from energy efficiency
in the New Policies Scenario
Savings in buildings energy demand and CO2 emissions from energy efficiency
in the New Policies scenario
178
Tables for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
Remaining recoverable oil resources and proven reserves, end-2012
Comparative economics of LTO and EOR hypothetical projects
Major LTO resource-holders
Oil production and supply by source and scenario
Breakdown of the field database by field size (recoverable resources)
and geographic location
Weighted average CADR to 2012 by decline phase
World oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario
Non-OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario
323
326
331
344
355
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365
366
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14.6
14.7
14.8
OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario
Cumulative investment in upstream oil and gas supply by region
in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2035
Oil and gas industry investment by company
Tables for Chapter 15: Prospects for oil demand
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.6
Oil and total liquids demand by scenario
Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
New policies in 2012/2013 with a potential impact on oil demand
Oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario
Main sources and uses of oil products, 2012
World primary oil demand by product in the New Policies Scenario
484
496
498
503
505
510
511
529
529
Tables for Chapter 16: Implications for oil refining and trade
16.1
16.2
Global total demand for liquids, products and crude throughput
in the New Policies Scenario
World refining capacity and refinery runs in the New Policies Scenario
537
545
List of boxes
Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Boxes for Chapter 1: Scope and methodology
1.1
1.2
1.3
Recent key developments in energy and environmental policy
Uncertainties around the economic outlook
Deriving the fossil fuel prices used in WEO analysis
Boxes for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2035
2.1
2.2
2.3
Building on a new base
Fuel shortages in Pakistan
Smuggling as a possible driver of fossil-fuel subsidy reform
Boxes for Chapter 3: Natural gas market outlook
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
Wide variety in regional starting points for the gas outlook
Natural gas liquids and upstream gas investment
Levant gas on the rise
High-Level Unconventional Gas Forum-towards global best practice
Are methane hydrates the next revolution-in-waiting?
How great should expectations be for North American LNG?
Price differentials between regions in a “global” gas market
Trinidad and Tobago: seeking a new foothold in a changing gas world
Boxes for Chapter 4: Coal market outlook
4.1
4.2
A quick guide to the different types of coal
Was 2012 an aberration or a harbinger of change in coal demand?
35
39
44
56
90
94
101
112
114
115
119
127
133
138
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© OECD/IEA, 2013
4.3
4.4
Steam coal trade thrives as demand stutters
US President’s Climate Action Plan
Boxes for Chapter 5: Power sector outlook
5.1
Coal-to-gas switching in the power sector
Boxes for Chapter 6: Renewable energy outlook
6.1
6.2
6.3
Reducing the challenges posed by variable renewables
Variable renewables in the 450 Scenario
Multiple benefits of renewables
151
161
184
213
216
226
Boxes for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook
7.1
7.2
7.3
The Efficient World Scenario – tackling competitiveness, energy security
and climate change simultaneously
Energy efficiency, energy intensity and energy savings
Energy efficiency does deliver
Boxes for Chapter 8: Energy and competitiveness
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5 
8.6
Defining “competitiveness”
Effect of taxes and subsidies on competitiveness
Reindustrialisation of the US economy: myth or reality?
The remarkable renaissance of US petrochemicals
Expensive energy adds to the steel woes of the European Union
Energy competitiveness and the European Union
233
234
236
262
270
281
285
286
298
Part B: BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK
Boxes for Chapter 9: The Brazilian energy sector today
9.1
9.2
9.3
Electricity crisis in Brazil, 2001-2002
Bioenergy in Brazil: more than ethanol
Brazil’s upstream regulatory framework
Boxes for Chapter 10: Prospects for Brazil’s domestic energy consumption
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
End-user energy efficiency policies in Brazil
What if hydropower falls short?
Brazil’s high tolerance for variable renewables
The upstream oil and gas industry – a major consumer of its own products
Keeping Brazil cool
A long and winding road to a competitive Brazilian gas market
Boxes for Chapter 11: Brazilian resources and supply potential
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4
Petrobras and global deepwater oil production
Brazil and deepwater regulation after Macondo
Could oil suffer from divided royalties?
Unconventional gas outlook for Brazil
311
313
317
334
336
343
348
353
357
368
371
376
382
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11.5
11.6
A platform for Amazon hydropower development
Prospects for a new generation of biofuels in Brazil
383
390
Boxes for Chapter 12: Implications of Brazil’s energy development
12.1
Choices for oil production beyond self-sufficiency
402
Part C: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS
Boxes for Chapter 13: From oil resources to reserves
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
13.5
13.6
Light tight oil, conventional or unconventional?
Oil resources and reserves under different classification systems
Grouping oil and gas companies in the WEO-2013 analysis
The risk of “stranded assets” in the upstream oil sector
Recovery rates and the case for EOR
CO2 enhanced oil recovery for carbon capture and storage
Boxes for Chapter 14: Prospects for oil supply
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
Why does production decline?
Concepts used in the decline rate analysis
Will LTO techniques improve recovery at conventional reservoirs?
The rising overseas presence of Asian national oil companies
Staffing the oil and gas business
Boxes for Chapter 15: Prospects for oil demand
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
Could the world ever fall out of love with the automobile?
Of chickens, eggs, trucks and cars
A guide to petrochemicals
Is cheap coal the Chinese answer to cheap gas in the United States?
Boxes for Chapter 16: Implications for oil refining and trade
16.1
Is history repeating itself for European refining?
Part B: BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK
Are high energy prices hurting Brazil’s industrial competitiveness?
Local content in Brazil; short-term costs, long-term value?
How might climate change affect Brazil’s energy sector?
346
373
412
Part C: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS
Has the rise of LTO resolved the debate about peak oil?
What does the rise of light tight oil mean for decline rates?
447
467
424
431
433
436
439
441
460
461
475
494
500
514
518
524
527
551
List of spotlights
Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
How does the IEA model future energy trends?
Redrawing the energy-climate map
Is China’s coal demand set to peak soon?
Is residential solar PV already competitive?
Policies for energy efficiency in buildings in China
What role does energy play in Korea’s industrial success?
41
80
146
218
252
266
World Energy Outlook 2013
© OECD/IEA, 2013
Table of Contents
© OECD/IEA, 2013