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Favignana, 28-29 September 2009 OECD-FAO Aglink-CO.SI.MO. Projection System by Stefania Vannuccini Fishery Statistician (Commodities) FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Information and Statistics Service AGLINK MODEL • OECD • Dynamic, partial equilibrium supply-demand model • Yearly basis since early 1990s • Medium-term projections • Agricultural key commodities • Assumptions • Coverage • Close collaboration with member countries • Influence of agricultural policy CO.SI.MO MODEL • • • • • • • • FAO World Food Model FAO COmmodity SImulation MOdel Yearly basis since 2004 Updating Cycle Coverage Commodities Macro economic assumptions Parameters OECD-FAO Projection Work • Joint outlook preparation between OECD and FAO • Started in 2004 • Annual process • Expansion of OECD Aglink model to developing countries • Utilize global expertise Aglink – CO.SI.MO. • Partial Equilibrium Model • Projection systems to examine future potential impacts – Policy impacts – Economic scenarios – Link to food security indicators Aglink – CO.SI.MO. Key factors of assumptions • World markets for agricultural commodities are competitive • Domestically produced and traded commodities as perfect substitutes by buyers and sellers. • Importers do not distinguish commodities by country of origin as it is not a spatial model • Non agricultural markets, including fish, are treaded exogenously to the model Aglink – CO.SI.MO. • • • • • • • About 15 000 equations 40 individual countries 19 regions About 40 commodities About 26 000 variables 17 world clearing prices Simulation of market determination of equilibrium prices AGLINK-CO.SI.MO. COMMODITIES Wheat Beef Coarse Grains Sheepmeat Whole Milk Powder Rice Oilseeds Vegetable Oils Pigmeat Poultry Eggs Oilseed Meals Sugar Roots and Tubers Cotton (Cosimo) Skim Milk Powder Cheese Butter Fresh Dairy Products AGLINK COUNTRIES Argentina EU-12 China Brazil EU-15 Japan Canada EU-27 Korea, Rep. of Mexico Hungary Australia USA Norway New Zealand Poland Russian Fed. Switzerland CO.SI.MO. COUNTRIES Algeria Indonesia Saudi Arabia Asia Pacific – LDCs Iran South Africa Asia Pacific – Other Korea, Rep. of Southern Africa – LDCs Bangladesh Malaysia Southern Africa – Other Central America – LDCs Mozambique Tanzania Central America - Other Nigeria Thailand Chile North Africa – Other Turkey Colombia Other CIS Ukraine East Africa – LDCs Other Eastern Europe Uruguay East Africa – Other Other South America Viet Nam Egypt Pakistan West Africa – LDCs Ghana Paraguay West Africa – Other India Philippines Data Requirements • Projections based on a calendar year (exc. crops) • Annual time series for: – – – – – – prices (usually export prices) supply (area, yield, animal numbers...) demand (food, feed, crush...) trade (exports, imports) policy variables (tariffs, CAP...) macroeconomic data (GDP, GDPD, private consumption expenditure deflator, exchange rates, Brent crude oil price) – Commodity Production Cost Index PARAMETERS/DATA • World Food Model, FAPRI, USDA, OECD, expert estimates, literature • Source of data: – Databases trade and market division FAO (EST) – FAOSTAT, national data, prices – OECD, EU Commission, USDA, national sources (politics) – COMTRADE (USDA), IDB and CTS (WTO), TRAINS (UNTAD), WITS (WB/UNCTAD), AMAD – IMF – UN population – Reuters – OECD questionnaires Projections and elasticities • Functional relationships linking supply and demand to prices are, in most cases, linear in the logarithms of the variables • Equation coefficients are partial elasticities • Source of elasticities • Global market projections=Baselines Scenarios • The baseline provide a benchmark for alternative scenarios • Scenarios try to address questions such as: – What are the likely impacts of market stocks? – What are the likely impacts of domestic policy changes? – What are the likely impacts of multilateral policy changes? OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook • Country views are the starting point • AGLINK CO.SI.MO is used to get a consistent and coherent picture • Model outcomes adjusted through expert opinions • Final reviews in OECD commodity working groups • The datasets are available at: www.agri-outlook.org OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook • Yearly • Preparation: November-April • Projections and related market analysis for some fifteen agricultural products over a ten year horizon • The result is a plausible set of conditional projections • It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence market outcomes Adding fish to the AGLINK-COSIMO • Inclusion of fish in the AGLINK – CO.SI.MO. model and in the FAO Agricultural Outlook • Species • Elements • Capture-Aquaculture for supply • Price index