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GMO North America | Europe | Asia-Pacific Low Volatility Investing from a Fundamental Perspective Mark Ingham 31 May 2012 Proprietary information – not for distribution beyond intended recipient. Introduction Outline Risk seems to be backwards – behavioural factors are big drivers of this – but not the only drivers... Fundamental risk and quality characteristics also work backwards On some dimensions low fundamental risk is more attractive than low trailing return risk: – payoff structure – liquidity – valuation GMO 1 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Low Volatility – What a Backtest! 128 64 Cumulative Return 32 Low Beta 16 High Beta 8 4 2 1 0.5 1964 GMO 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Source: GMO As of 5/15/12 Note: High Beta = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities and Low Beta = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities. MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 2 This Isn’t a New Phenomenon 4096 2048 1024 512 Low Beta Cumulative Return 256 128 High Beta 64 32 16 8 4 2 1 0.5 0.25 0.125 1927 GMO 1934 1941 1948 1955 1962 1969 1976 1983 1990 1997 2004 2011 Source: GMO As of 5/15/12 Note: High Beta = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities and Low Beta = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities. MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 3 This Isn’t a U.S. Phenomenon 32 16 Cumulative Return Global Low Beta 8 4 Global High Beta 2 1 0.5 Dec- 84 GMO 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: GMO As of 7/31/11 Note: Global High Beta = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 2000 Global Equities and Global Low Beta = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 2000 Global Equities. MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 4 This Isn’t an Equity Phenomenon 0.8 0.6 0.4 GMO Commodities Foreign Exchange Country Bonds Equity Indices Treasuries Corporate Bonds Credit Indices Global Stocks (all) Sweden Credit Hedged (CDS) Note: Results here are taken from Frazzini and Pederson “Betting against Beta.” To construct the BAB factor, all instruments are assigned to one of two portfolios: low beta and high beta. Instruments are weighted by the ranked betas and the portfolios are rebalanced every calendar month. Both portfolios are rescaled to have a beta of 1 at portfolio formation. The BAB factor is a zero-cost portfolio that is long the low-beta portfolio and shorts the high-beta portfolio. Singapore New Zealand Norway Netherlands Japan Italy Hong Kong United Kingdom Finland Spain Denmark Germany Switzerland Canada Belgium Austria -0.2 Australia 0.0 France 0.2 U.S. Stocks Annualised Sharpe Ratio of BAB Factor 1.0 Source: Frazzini and Pederson “Betting against Beta MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 5 And Pretty Much the Same Phenomenon as MVP 128 MVP 64 Low Beta Cumulative Return 32 16 8 High Beta 4 2 1 0.5 Dec- 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 GMO Source: GMO As of 7/31/11 Note: MVP = Minimum volatility portfolio, High Beta = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000, Low Beta = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000. MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 6 Why Risk Is Backwards Behavioural or People are weak and stupid! Career Risk – Glamour Stocks – Benchmark huggers run the risk of picking high volatility, low return stocks in order to keep tracking error down. High volatility tends to be associated with exciting growth stories. The chance of this growth not materialising is generally underappreciated. Lottery Love – Investors like positive skew, just as they overpay for lottery tickets. GMO 7 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Lottery Love The favourite long-shot bias Rate of Return per Dollar Bet (%) Break Even -20 -40 Sample: U.S. Horse Races, 1992-2001 -60 Raw Data: Aggregated into Percentiles All Races Subsample: Exotic Betting Data Available Subsample: Last Race of the Day -80 1/3 1/2 Evens 2/1 5/1 10/1 20/1 50/1 100/1 200/1 Odds (Log Scale) GMO Source: Snowberg and Wolfers (2010) MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 8 Why Risk Is Backwards Behavioural or People are weak and stupid! Career Risk – Glamour Stocks – Benchmark huggers run the risk of picking high volatility, low return stocks in order to keep tracking error down. High volatility tends to be associated with exciting growth stories. The chance of this growth not materialising is generally underappreciated. Lottery Love – Investors like positive skew, just as they overpay for lottery tickets. Implicit leverage High beta can give additional exposure to investors who want to go extra-long but can’t (or won’t) take on leverage GMO 9 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Not All Leverage Is Created Equal Beta is leverage, but beta’s leverage is “zero recourse” 250 200 Market Levered Market Beta = 2 Theoretical Return 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -100 -50 0 50 100 Market Return GMO Source: GMO 10 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Not All Leverage Is Created Equal It’s not just about leverage, it’s about convexity Beta ~ 2 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% Low Beta Return High Beta Return 50% High Beta 10% 0% -10% Low Beta Beta ~ 0.5 10% 0% -10% -20% -20% -30% -30% -40% -40% -50% -40%-30%-20%-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% -50% -40%-30%-20%-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Market Return Market Return Beta Converging to 1 GMO MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Note: Return = 20-Day Rolling Compound Return; Market = Top 1000 U.S. Equity Stocks by Market Capitalization; High Beta = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities and Low Beta = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities. Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 11 Not All Leverage Is Created Equal In down markets, correlations go to 1 Realized Betas Low Beta Portfolio High Beta Portfolio Market Up 5% or More Market Between -5% and 5% Market Down 5% or More 0.0 GMO MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Note: Return = 20-Day Rolling Compound Return; Market = Top 1000 U.S. Equity Stocks by Market Capitalization; High Beta = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities and Low Beta = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities. Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 12 Leverage Convexity / Concavity High beta has a convex payoff. – The bigger the market return, the higher the “beta.” – Looks like a call option (or, at least, a stock plus a call). Conversely, low beta has a concave payoff with a greater sensitivity to down markets than up Convex payoffs are good, and good things are rarely free Concave payoffs are bad, and you should be paid to take them GMO 13 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Mitigating Concavity Can one maximise the behavioural aspects of low volatility investing whilst minimising concavity (or have your cake and eat it?) YES! – Reassess risk GMO 14 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Real Risk Is Losing Your Money! Three routes to the permanent impairment of capital: Fundamental risk – “Real risk is measured not by the percent that a stock may decline in price in relation to the general market in a given period, but by the danger of a loss of quality and earnings power through economic change or deterioration in management.” — Ben Graham Financing risk – Leverage – “An investor who proposes to ignore near-term market fluctuations needs greater resources for safety and must not operate on so large a scale, if at all, with borrowed money.” — Maynard Keynes Price risk – Buying overvalued assets dooms you to low long run returns GMO 15 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Fundamental Risk …also seems backwards – high quality seems to pay! U.S. Small Cap Small Leverage Low Risk Stocks Low 1.6% Small Profitability Small Profit Volatility High 2.1% Low 1.8% Small Combined Quality* High 2.9% Small Beta Low 1.7% Small Cap High Risk Stocks -3.7% High -3.7% High -4.7% Low -5.5% Low -4.3% High Source: GMO annualized data from 1/79 – 12/11 EAFE Leverage Low Risk Stocks Profitability Low 1.8% High 1.2% Low 0.7% Profit Volatility Combined Quality* High 2.2% Beta Low 2.4% MSCI EAFE High Risk Stocks GMO -1.6% High -1.1% Low * Leverage, profitability and profit volatility Note: GMO defines quality companies as those with high profitability, low profit volatility, and minimal use of leverage. Simulated relative returns of a hypothetical portfolio. -1.7% High -2.4% Low -2.8% High Source: GMO annualized data from 1/85 – 12/11 16 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Quality Characteristics Persist Contrary to economic theory, quality exhibits a sustainable competitive advantage U.S. Quality U.S. Low Quality Realized U.S. Quality Realized U.S. Low Quality 6% Relative Profitability (ROE) 4% 2% 1975 Highest Quality Quartile 0% 1975 Lowest Quality Quartile -2% IBM Wyeth Xerox Corp. Schering-Plough Corp. Avon Products Inc. Kellogg Co. Eastman Kodak Co. Merck & Co., Inc. Eli Lilly & Co. Hewlett-Packard Co. Emerson Electric Co. General Foods Corp. Procter & Gamble Co. Johnson & Johnson J.C. Penney Co., Inc. Federated Dept. Stores Pfizer Inc. CBS Inc. 3M Co. Coca-Cola Co. Warner-Lambert Co. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. PepsiCo, Inc. Carnation Co. United States Steel Corp. CitiCorp Pharmacia Corp. Morgan (JP) & Co. BCE Inc. ConocoPhillips Atlantic Richfield Co. International Paper Co. Union Pacific Corp. Southern Co. Unocal Corp. BankAmerica Corp. Standard Oil Co. American Electric Power Amax Inc. Alcoa Inc. Ford Motor Co. Tenneco Inc. Unicom Corp. Bethlehem Steel Corp. Aetna Inc. RCA Corp. After 30 years the high quality quartile is almost twice as profitable. -4% -6% 0 3 6 9 12 Years 15 18 21 24 30 Note: Profitability = Return On Equity Source: GMO, U.S. 1965-2010; Realized GMO 2004-31/10/11 GMO The securities identified above represent a selection of securities identified by the GMO quantitative model. These specific securities are selected for presentation by GMO based on their underlying characteristics and are not selected on the basis of their investment performance. These securities are not necessarily representative of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for advisory clients, and it should not be assumed that the investment in the securities identified will be profitable. MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 17 Quality, the Market and Low Volatility during Historic Downturns Market -71% -48% -22% -23% Quality N/A N/A N/A N/A Min vol -68% -45% -20% -20% Dates Jan-29 toJan-32 Feb-37 to Mar-38 May-46 to Nov-46 Dec-61 to Jun-62 Name Great Depression Echo of above Post-WWII Kennedy Break Duration (months) 36 13 6 6 -29% -44% -19% -28% -15% -16% -19% -46% 11% -27% -10% -12% -30% -37% 13% -22% -13% -11% Dec-68 to Jun-70 Jan-73 to Sep-74 Nov-80 to Jul-82 Sep-87 to Nov-87 May-90 to Oct-90 Jun-98 to Aug-98 GGM meltdown* First Oil Shock Second Oil Shock Black Monday S & L crisis LTCM 18 20 20 2 5 2 -46% -50% -39% -37% 7% -34% Mar-00 to Sep-02 Oct-07 to Feb-09 TMT meltdown Financial crisis 30 16 GMO *Great Garbage Market Source: GMO 18 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Concavity / Convexity of Low Beta and Quality Flight to Quality NOT flight to Low Beta! 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% High Quality Return Low Beta Return 50% High Quality Low Beta 10% 0% -10% 10% 0% -10% -20% -20% -30% -30% -40% -40% -50% -40%-30%-20%-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Market Return GMO Market Return Note: Return = 20-Day Rolling Compound Return; Market = Top 1000 U.S. Equity Stocks by Market Capitalization; High Beta = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities and Low Beta = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities. MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 19 Concavity / Convexity of Low Beta, Quality and MVP …and, on average, low beta GMO Note: Return = 20-Day Rolling Compound Return; Market = Top 1000 U.S. Equity Stocks by Market Capitalization; High Beta = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities and Low Beta = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities. MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 20 Mitigating Concavity Can one maximise the behavioural aspects of low volatility investing whilst minimising concavity (or have your cake and eat it?) YES! – Reassess risk – Extend investment horizon GMO 21 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Convexity Is a Shorter-Term Phenomenon Convexity over different return horizons 1.5 high beta low beta Convexity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1 day GMO MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 1 week 1 month 1 quarter 2 quarters 3 quarters 4 quarters Notes: High Beta = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities and Low Beta = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities. Convexity is the coefficient of the quadratic term from a quadratic fit of high beta and low beta returns against the market for different return horizons. Data is from 01-Jan-1966 to 30-Apr-2012 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 22 Real Risk Is Losing Your Money! Deleveraging can drive correlations to 1 Fundamental risk – “Real risk is measured not by the percent that a stock may decline in price in relation to the general market in a given period, but by the danger of a loss of quality and earnings power through economic change or deterioration in management.” — Ben Graham Financing risk – Leverage – “An investor who proposes to ignore nearterm market fluctuations needs greater resources for safety and must not operate on so large a scale, if at all, with borrowed money.” — Maynard Keynes Price risk – Buying overvalued assets dooms you to low long run returns GMO 23 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. August 2007 – Correlations Going to 1 USD value of coincident holdings of 8 prominent quants Total Assets ($ Billions) in High Ownership Group $70 $61 Billion $60 $50 $40 24x Growth $30 $20 $2.5 Billion $10 $0 1/04 GMO 5/04 9/04 1/05 5/05 9/05 1/06 5/06 9/06 1/07 5/07 9/07 Source: GMO As of 30/9/07 24 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 3 Years of Returns Were Wiped Out in 3 Days Quant became the risk factor 12% Quant Long/Short Performance 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1/04 5/04 9/04 1/05 5/05 9/05 1/06 5/06 9/06 1/07 5/07 The above illustrate a hypothetical strategy that GMO does not manage. Hypothetical returns are not predictive of future allocations. The results reflect returns an investor would have obtained had they invested in this hypothetical strategy during the time periods shown and do not represent actual returns. Hypothetical returns are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable. In the above, we aggregated reported holdings from eight quantitative managers identified by GMO to come up with a long/short portfolio. Changes in these assumptions may have a material impact on the hypothetical returns presented. Certain assumptions have been made for modeling purposes and are unlikely to be realized. No representations and warranties are made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions. Hypothetical returns are developed with the benefit of hindsight and have inherent limitations. Specifically, hypothetical returns do not reflect actual trading or the effect of material economic and market factors on the decision-making process. Because trades have not actually been executed, results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity, and may not reflect the impact that certain economic or market factors may have had on the decision-making process. Actual returns may differ significantly from the hypothetical returns. GMO Source: GMO, LionShare As of 31/8/07 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 25 Illiquidity Was the Real Risk Number of Names in High Ownership Group Performance was determined by where the crowding took place 150 120 2004 August 2007 90 60 30 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 7 8 9 10 Return on Aug 7th - 9th Days to Liquidate 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Days to Liquidate GMO MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Estimated number of days to liquidate securities that were held by six or more of the eight prominent quantitative managers as determined by GMO while seeking to minimize market impacts. Source: GMO As of 30/9/07 26 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Low Volatility Looking Forward Percentage of Holdings Liquidity of Low Volatility and Quality Low Volatility - $10 billion 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 >30 Percentage of Holdings Days to Liquidate Mega Quality- $10 billion 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 >30 Days to Liquidate GMO Note: Mega Quality represents Quality companies with the largest 100 companies by market cap. Source: GMO As of 30/4/12 27 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Real Risk Is Losing Your Money! Three routes to the permanent impairment of capital: Fundamental risk – “Real risk is measured not by the percent that a stock may decline in price in relation to the general market in a given period, but by the danger of a loss of quality and earnings power through economic change or deterioration in management.” — Ben Graham Financing risk – Leverage – “An investor who proposes to ignore near-term market fluctuations needs greater resources for safety and must not operate on so large a scale, if at all, with borrowed money.” — Maynard Keynes Price risk – Buying overvalued assets dooms you to low long run returns GMO 28 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Low Volatility Looking Forward Valuation of trailing low volatility Valuation of Low Volatility Relative to the Market 1.2 GMO 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Note: Valuations = Price to Normalized Earnings Source: GMO As of 29/2/12 29 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Price Also Matters Quality MEGA cap stocks have won over the long term 40% 30% 50% Valuation Return 20% 40% 10% 30% Stocks’ Historical Premium 20% 0% -10% * 10% -20% 0% -30% Market Average GMO Launches Quality Strategy -10% -40% Dec- 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 GMO Cumulative Return of MEGA Cap Quality Stocks Relative to the Market Valuation of MEGA Cap Quality Stocks Relative to the Market 60% Source: GMO As of 29/2/12 * Stocks’ historical premium valuation since 1980. Note: GMO defines quality companies as those with high profitability, low profit volatility, and minimal use of leverage. The historical valuation is determined by our proprietary intrinsic valuation measure. MEGA Cap Quality represents Quality companies within the largest 100 companies by market cap. 30 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Conclusion Low volatility investing has done well because of: – Behavioural drivers – Marketplace structure – Concave payoffs Considering fundamental risk can reduce concavity and is a good indicator of future fundamental risk It can also reduce liquidity risk Low trailing return volatility is expensive today and therefore at risk of disappointing GMO 31 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Appendix Implicit Leverage Average bet on beta quintiles by U.S. mutual funds 4 Bet versus S&P 500 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1 GMO 2 Note: Data is taken from Karceski 2002 “Returns-Chasing Behaviour, Mutual Funds and Beta’s Death” and is based on U.S. domestic mutual fund holdings in Morningstar’s “Mutual Funds ondisc” reported from 1984-1996 3 4 5 Source: Karceksi 2002 “Returns-Chasing Behaviour, Mutual Funds and Beta’s death” MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 33 Not All Leverage Is Created Equal Strategy Return It’s not just about leverage, it’s about convexity Market Return GMO MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Note: Return = 20-Day Rolling Compound Return; Market = Top 1000 U.S. Equity Stocks by Market Capitalization; High Beta = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities and Low Beta = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap in Top 1000 U.S. Equities. Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 34 Getting Convexity Is Easy Systematically buying call options gives a nice convex result Buy 1 ATM Call with 1 Year Expiry 20% 15% 10% Return 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Market Return GMO Note: Market = S&P 500. No commissions, options priced at mid-point. Source: Ivy DB, GMO. 35 MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. Monetizing the Option Brings Back the Return Beta + Call option = Market 8.0 Cumulative Return 4.0 High Beta Market 2.0 High Beta Covered Call 1.0 0.5 1996 GMO MI_DiscMatls_CFAconf_5-12 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Note: High Beta = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap within Top 200 U.S. Equities; Low Beta Quartile = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap within Top 200 U.S. Equities; High Beta Covered Call = Top 25% of Beta by Market Cap with Top 200 U.S. Equities Paired with a Written 1 Month at the Money Call Option; Low Beta Covered Call = Bottom 25% of Beta by Market Cap with Top 200 U.S. Equities Paired with a Written 1 Month at the Money Call Source: Ivy DB, GMO As of 9/1/11 Option; Market = Top 200 U.S. Equities. All option trades assume crossing the spread and paying commission. Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2012 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. 36 Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. The foregoing does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale. Returns are presented gross of management fees, net of transaction costs and include the reinvestment of dividends and other income. If these expenses were deducted performance would be lower. For example, if the strategy were to achieve a 10% annual rate of return each year for ten years and an annual advisory fee of 0.75% were charged during that period, the resulting average annual net return (after the deduction of advisory fees) would be 9.25%. A GIPS compliant presentation of composite performance has preceded this report in the past 12 months or accompanies this presentation, or is also available at www.gmo.com. Actual fees are disclosed in the Prospectus for each fund and are also available in each strategies compliant presentation. Performance is shown compared to broad-based securities market indices. Broad-based indices are unmanaged and are not subject to fees and expenses typically associated with managed accounts or investment funds. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. GMO North America | Europe | Asia-Pacific GMO Netherlands Gustav Mahlerplein 109 – 115, 26th floor 1082 MS Amsterdam Tel: +31 (0)20- 7085789 GMO Netherlands is a branch of GMO UK Limited. GMO UK Limited is registered with the AFM and the branch office is subject to, and regulated by, the AFM’s conduct of business rules.