Download North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment

North Kent
Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Report of Study Findings
3rd February 2010
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Opinion Research Services The Strand, Swansea SA1 1AF
Jonathan Lee Chris Broughton Nigel Moore Catherine Nock Hugo Marchant
enquiries 01792 535300 · [email protected] · www.ors.org.uk
© Copyright February 2010
Medway Council Gun Wharf, Dock Road, Chatham Kent ME4 4TR
Russell Drury (Housing Strategy and Enabling Team Manager) [email protected]
enquiries 01634 333508
Page 2
Contents
Section 1: Introducing the Study .................................................................................................................. 9
What Is A Strategic Housing Market Assessment? ........................................................................... 9
Satisfying the Process Checklist ......................................................................................................11
Data Sources ..................................................................................................................................13
Section 2: The Strategic Context .................................................................................................................15
Affordable Housing ........................................................................................................................17
The South East Region ....................................................................................................................17
Affordable housing .........................................................................................................................19
Rural Housing .................................................................................................................................19
Density ...........................................................................................................................................19
The Thames Gateway .....................................................................................................................20
Kent ...............................................................................................................................................22
Introducing North Kent ..................................................................................................................23
Dartford .........................................................................................................................................24
The Vision ......................................................................................................................................24
Economy ........................................................................................................................................25
Trajectory.......................................................................................................................................25
Gravesham .....................................................................................................................................26
The Vision ......................................................................................................................................26
Existing communities .....................................................................................................................26
Future communities .......................................................................................................................26
Service provision ............................................................................................................................26
Trajectory.......................................................................................................................................27
Economy ........................................................................................................................................28
Medway .........................................................................................................................................28
The Vision ......................................................................................................................................28
Economy ........................................................................................................................................29
Trajectory.......................................................................................................................................29
Swale .............................................................................................................................................29
The Vision ......................................................................................................................................29
Economy ........................................................................................................................................30
Trajectory.......................................................................................................................................31
Kent Thameside .............................................................................................................................31
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Medway Renaissance ..................................................................................................................... 32
Swale Forward ............................................................................................................................... 32
The Thames Gateway North Kent Multi Area Agreement (MAA) 2009 ............................................ 33
Section 3: Identifying Local Housing Sub-Markets within the Sub-Region ................................................... 37
Housing Sub-Markets in the North Kent Sub-Region ....................................................................... 37
Sources of Information and Approach ............................................................................................ 37
Identifying and Grouping Areas with Similar Characteristics ........................................................... 38
Identifying and Grouping Areas with a Degree of Self containment ................................................ 38
Data Sources Used ......................................................................................................................... 38
Defining Sub-Regional Housing Market Areas ................................................................................. 39
Identifying Sub-Areas in North Kent ............................................................................................... 39
Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 40
Using Employment and Migration Patterns to Define Housing Market Areas .................................. 41
Defining Housing Market Areas for the Sub-region ......................................................................... 42
Conclusions: Housing Market Areas in North Kent sub-region ........................................................ 44
Understanding the Identified Housing Market Areas in the Study Area ........................................... 44
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers .............................................................................................................. 47
National Level Household Changes ................................................................................................. 47
Local Population Trends ................................................................................................................. 48
ONS Projections ............................................................................................................................. 49
Migration ....................................................................................................................................... 50
Migration Trends............................................................................................................................ 50
Migration within the Sub-region..................................................................................................... 52
Age of Migrant Persons .................................................................................................................. 54
Migrant Household Characteristics ................................................................................................. 55
Migration in the RSL Sector ............................................................................................................ 55
International Migration .................................................................................................................. 55
The Local Economy......................................................................................................................... 57
Economic Activity ........................................................................................................................... 57
New VAT Registrations ................................................................................................................... 58
Incomes and Earnings .................................................................................................................... 62
Skills and Education ........................................................................................................................ 65
Population ..................................................................................................................................... 67
Migration ....................................................................................................................................... 67
The economy ................................................................................................................................. 68
Section 5: Existing Dwelling Stock ............................................................................................................... 69
Property Type ................................................................................................................................ 69
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Contents
Housing Tenure ..............................................................................................................................70
Private Rented Sector .....................................................................................................................72
Social Housing ................................................................................................................................73
Houses in Multiple Occupation and Communal Establishments ......................................................74
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements ................................................................................................77
The SHMA Practice Guidance .........................................................................................................77
Index of Multiple Deprivation .........................................................................................................78
Overcrowding.................................................................................................................................80
Identifying Unsuitably Housed Households.....................................................................................81
Assessing Established Households in Unsuitable Housing ...............................................................82
The Policy Implications of Unsuitable Housing ................................................................................84
Understanding the Affordability of Local Housing ...........................................................................85
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................85
Local House Price Trends ................................................................................................................86
Affordability ...................................................................................................................................88
Key Findings ...................................................................................................................................93
Medway Homes Society - mhs ........................................................................................................93
Further considerations and implications regarding affordability .....................................................93
How Affordability Changes if Households Borrow More Money. .....................................................94
What is the present position?.........................................................................................................95
Estimating the Overall Future Requirement for Housing and the Requirement for Social Rented
Housing ..........................................................................................................................................96
Preface...........................................................................................................................................96
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................96
Estimating the future housing tenure mix .......................................................................................96
Key Finding...................................................................................................................................100
Further Analysis ...........................................................................................................................101
Estimating the Future Requirement for Intermediate Affordable and Market Housing (The Other
Tenures) .......................................................................................................................................104
Introduction .................................................................................................................................104
Analysis ........................................................................................................................................104
Key Finding: the intermediate affordable and market housing requirement 2008 to 2026 ............107
Further analysis: how the balance between intermediate affordable and market housing changes
with house price change: House Price Scenarios ...........................................................................108
Rental Yield Changes ....................................................................................................................109
Graphical summary Housing Requirements Estimated by the 4 Scenarios.....................................114
Delivery of new build housing and the credit crunch ....................................................................114
Estimating the future balance between market housing for sale and rent ....................................114
The Mix of Future Housing Requirements .....................................................................................115
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
The Size Mix of additional housing by 2026 .................................................................................. 115
Relating room requirements to bedroom requirements ............................................................... 118
Size mix and preferred scenarios .................................................................................................. 120
Shared Ownership Recent Sales ................................................................................................... 122
Income Growth over Time ............................................................................................................ 122
Housing Benefit............................................................................................................................ 125
The Importance of Intermediate Housing and how the need for it changes if market prices fall ... 126
Expression of Housing Need ......................................................................................................... 127
Analysing Housing Register Data to Determine Housing Need ...................................................... 127
Acute Housing Need: Homelessness ............................................................................................. 128
Index of Multiple Deprivation....................................................................................................... 131
Overcrowding .............................................................................................................................. 131
Unsuitably Housed Households .................................................................................................... 131
Affordability ................................................................................................................................. 131
Future Housing Requirements ...................................................................................................... 132
Intermediate Housing Requirement ............................................................................................. 132
Section 7: Niche Group Analysis ................................................................................................................ 133
Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 133
Understanding the Housing Requirements of Older People .......................................................... 133
Older Population .......................................................................................................................... 133
Population Projections ................................................................................................................. 134
Health .......................................................................................................................................... 135
Access to a Car or Van .................................................................................................................. 135
Tenure ......................................................................................................................................... 136
Housing Typologies for older people and the spectrum of care .................................................... 137
Understanding the Housing Requirements of Disabled People ..................................................... 138
Housing Issues related to Minority Ethnic Groups ........................................................................ 141
BME Population ........................................................................................................................... 141
Age Profile and Population Change .............................................................................................. 146
Household Structure .................................................................................................................... 146
Housing Tenure ............................................................................................................................ 147
Housing Conditions ...................................................................................................................... 149
Homelessness .............................................................................................................................. 150
Understanding the Housing Requirements of Rural Households ................................................... 150
Index of Multiple Deprivation....................................................................................................... 153
Assessing Established Households in Unsuitable Housing ............................................................. 154
Rural housing needs assessments ................................................................................................. 156
Older Persons............................................................................................................................... 157
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Contents
Persons with Health Problems ......................................................................................................157
BME Groups .................................................................................................................................157
Rural Housing ...............................................................................................................................157
Section 8: Policy issues and implications arising from the SHMA ...............................................................159
Introduction .................................................................................................................................159
Context and overview - underlying issues Identified by the SHMA ................................................159
Major policy issues identified by the SHMA ..................................................................................160
Structural change in the housing market ......................................................................................160
The legacy of the right to buy .......................................................................................................161
Rural Housing ...............................................................................................................................161
Economic drivers ..........................................................................................................................161
Unsuitable housing and households with support needs ..............................................................161
Future Housing Requirements and the affordable housing target .................................................162
Intermediate Housing...................................................................................................................163
Interpreting SHMA tenure and size mix findings ...........................................................................164
Making better use of the stock .....................................................................................................164
Meeting the housing requirement in Rural Areas .........................................................................166
The credit crunch and economic recession ...................................................................................166
Older people ................................................................................................................................167
The future housing market and issues to be monitored by revisions to the SHMA ........................168
Future international migration and the labour market..................................................................168
Other changes within the labour market ......................................................................................168
Pensions, pension and savings performance .................................................................................168
Public spending on infrastructure and regeneration .....................................................................169
Summary of policy implications and recommendations ................................................................169
Relating to the affordable housing target .....................................................................................169
Housing requirement and target issues ........................................................................................169
Regarding intermediate affordable housing..................................................................................170
Regarding social housing ..............................................................................................................170
Regarding the private rented sector .............................................................................................170
Sustainability................................................................................................................................170
The legacy of the credit crunch and policy implications ................................................................171
Older People ................................................................................................................................171
Rural housing ...............................................................................................................................172
Existing occupiers and their homes...............................................................................................172
Vacant property ...........................................................................................................................172
Future Monitoring ........................................................................................................................173
Page 7
Section 1: Introducing the Study
1.1
Opinion Research Services (ORS) working in partnership with Three Dragons was commissioned by
Medway Council and Gravesham Borough Council to undertake a comprehensive and integrated
Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA). Medway and Gravesham form part of the North Kent
sub-region along with Swale Borough Council and Dartford Borough Council. The Borough of Swale
also falls into the East Kent sub-region and has already been a full partner in a study conducted in that
area. Dartford has chosen to conduct its own internal Housing Market Assessment but has been
included in this document to ensure there is a complete SHMA for the North Kent sub-region.
However, certain outputs of the ORS housing market model regarding Dartford and Swale have been
withheld from this version of the report. This report should be regarded as a SHMA for North Kent
focussing on the commissioning Councils of Gravesham and Medway.
What Is A Strategic Housing Market Assessment?
1.2
Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs) are a crucial part of the evidence base that informs
policy and helps shape strategic thinking in housing and planning. They were introduced as the
required evidence base to support policies within the framework introduced by Planning Policy
Statement 3 (PPS3) in November 2006.
Strategic Housing Market Assessments and Strategic Land Availability Assessments are an
important part of the policy process. They provide information on the level of need and demand for
housing and the opportunities that exist to meet it
1.3
SHMAs contribute to three levels of planning:
Regional

developing an evidence base for regional housing policy;

informing Regional Housing Strategy reviews; and

assisting with reviews of Regional Spatial Strategy.
Sub regional

deepening understanding of housing markets at the strategic (usually sub regional) level; and

developing an evidence base for sub regional housing strategy.
Local
1.4

developing an evidence base for local development documents; and

assisting with production of Core Strategies at local level
When considering SHMAs in the context of developing Local Development Documents, PPS3 sets out
the following expectations:
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Based upon the findings of the Strategic Housing Market Assessment and other local evidence, Local
Planning Authorities should set out in Local Development Documents:

the likely overall proportions of households that require market or affordable housing, for
example, x% market housing and y% affordable housing;

the likely profile of household types requiring market housing e.g. multi-person, including
families and children (x%), single persons (y%), couples (z%); and

the size and type of affordable housing required.
1.5
Alongside PPS3, Practice Guidance for undertaking Strategic Housing Market Assessments was
published by the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) in March 2007 and
subsequently updated with a minor revision in August 2007.
1.6
The Guidance gives advice regarding the SHMA process and sets out key process checklist items for
SHMA Partnerships to achieve. These checklist items are important, especially in the context of
supporting the soundness of any Development Plan Document:
In line with PPS12, for the purposes of the independent examination into the soundness of a
Development Plan Document, a strategic housing market assessment should be considered robust
and credible if, as a minimum, it provides all of the core outputs and meets the requirements of
all of the process criteria in figures 1.1 and 1.2.
1.7
The core outputs and process checklist required to demonstrate robustness are detailed below.
Figure 1
CLG SHMA Practice Guidance Figure 1.1 – Core Outputs
Core Outputs
1
Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure
2
Analysis of past and current housing market trends, including balance between supply and demand in different
housing sectors and price/affordability. Description of key drivers underpinning the housing market
3
Estimate of total future number of households, broken down by age and type where possible
4
Estimate of current number of households in housing need
5
Estimate of future households that will require affordable housing
6
Estimate of future households requiring market housing
7
Estimate of the size of affordable housing required
8
Estimate of household groups who have particular housing requirements e.g. families, older people, key workers,
black and minority ethnic groups, disabled people, young people
Page 10
Section 1: Introducing the Study
Figure 2
CLG SHMA Practice Guidance Figure 1.2 – Process Checklist
Process Checklist
1
Approach to identifying housing market area(s) is consistent with other approaches to identifying housing market
areas within the region
2
Housing market conditions are assessed within the context of the housing market area
3
Involves key stakeholders, including house builders
4
Contains a full technical explanation of the methods employed, with any limitations noted
5
Assumptions, judgements and findings are fully justified and presented in an open and transparent manner
6
Uses and reports upon effective quality control mechanisms
7
Explains how the assessment findings have been monitored and updated (where appropriate) since it was
originally undertaken
1.8
The following sections describe the process undertaken in delivering the North Kent study and identify
where the required core outputs are provided within the study report.
Satisfying the Process Checklist
1.
1.9
Approach to identifying housing market area(s) is consistent with other approaches to identifying housing market
areas within the region.
North Kent’s Strategic Housing Market Assessment, undertaken by ORS, is consistent with the regional
approach in identifying housing market areas adopted by DTZ Pieda. The North Kent sub-regional
SHMA was commissioned with reference to the administrative boundaries of the local authorities
within it – but through the use of a range of secondary sources, provided an appropriate context for
the local data in relation to the surrounding area. Reporting is at the Local Authority, and sub regional
level.
2.
Housing market conditions are assessed within the context of the housing market area.
1.10
The contextual information about housing market conditions presented in this report focus on the
administrative boundaries for North Kent sub-region, but is generally considered within the context of
the national and regional position.
1.11
Given that it is possible to define the housing market area at different levels – from very localised
housing markets that operate within the local authorities’ administrative boundary ranging up to wider
sub-regions– it is appropriate for this SHMA to assess the housing market context in this way.
3.
1.12
Involves key stakeholders, including house builders.
The North Kent SHMA forms the basis for a wider housing and planning consultation in North Kent.
Stakeholder consultation events took place in March and April 2009 to engage our partners from both
the public and private sector. Further consultation will take place to consider the draft report before it
is finalised.
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
4.
Contains a full technical explanation of the methods employed, with any limitations noted.
5.
Assumptions, judgements and findings are fully justified and presented in an open and transparent manner.
1.13
Many aspects of the SHMA simply collate the range of available evidence in order for it to be
considered within the local context. A detailed technical explanation of such data is therefore not
normally necessary as no assumptions or judgements have been taken. Nevertheless, some of the
outputs from the study are dependent on more analytical work that does require a more technical
explanation and are based on a series of assumptions which are explained and justified.
1.14
Assessing the suitability of housing occupied by established households across the borough is one of
those critical stages. The comprehensive analysis that is undertaken to determine the suitability of
existing housing is detailed in the report, together with the associated assumptions for this stage of the
analysis.
1.15
The assessment of household affordability is another critical stage of the analysis that fundamentally
underwrites the assessment of housing need insofar as it determines the financial resources required
to be able to access market housing. The methodology employed for this analysis is clearly set out in
Chapter 6 under the heading “Profiling Affordability”. Once again, a number of assumptions have been
made but these are consistent with the standard assumptions promoted by the CLG Practice Guidance.
1.16
The other key analytical stage of the process relates to the modelling of housing requirements. An
overview with further details on the derivation of each of the model inputs is set out in Chapter 6.
6.
Uses and reports upon effective quality control mechanisms.
1.17
The quality of the SHMA outputs are underwritten by the robustness of the analysis methodology
employed coupled with the quality of the data that underwrites that analysis process. The primary
source for many of the core outputs for North Kent is the modelling framework outlined in Chapter 6 of
this report. This model has been developed and tested over a number of years. The development
process was aided by being able to run the model alongside the evidence from many previous primary
data studies conducted by ORS. This allows us to be confident that the outputs from the model will be
in line with those which would have been generated by a primary data survey.
1.18
Key stakeholders within the North Kent sub-region were consulted on the detailed aspects of the
project, including the methodology, data sources and reporting with discussions taking place at the
Stakeholders Event in March 2009. Following comments from stakeholders, key aspects of the work
have been adapted and the most relevant and up to date information utilised.
7.
1.19
Explains how the assessment findings have been monitored and updated (where appropriate) since it was originally
undertaken.
As this report provides the findings from the baseline SHMA, the results are yet to be monitored and
updated. However, a modelling tool has been developed as part of this study for North Kent. The tool
will enable regular updates of the assessment findings by the Local Authorities that have commissioned
the work.
Page 12
Section 1: Introducing the Study
Data Sources
1.20
In considering these questions, we have integrated a range of research methods in order to understand
the relevant issues. By collating information from the range of data sources, we are able to build a
detailed profile of North Kent and how the area is evolving and changing over time. Integrating the
different data sources enables information to be extracted that otherwise may not have been found.
1.21
A key data source used throughout this report is the 2001 Census. Information from the 2001 Census is
now eight years out of date, but it can be supplemented with data from other sources to provide more
up to date information.
1.22
The secondary data sources used included:

2001 Census of Population;

1991 and 1981 Censuses of Population;

ONS population projections;

database of all property sales maintained by HM Land Registry;

information on existing stock maintained by Valuation Office Agency;

mid-year Population estimates;

annual Population Survey;

annual Survey of Hours and Earnings;

DEFRA Geographical Area Classification

VAT registrations

pension claimants;

incapacity benefit claimants;

unemployment claimants count;

HSSA submissions from local authorities;

CACI Paycheck data for household income;

Supporting People records;

Home Office asylum seeker statistics;

DCLG Right to Buy records;

DCLG data based on P1E homelessness submissions;

NHS customer record (NHSCR) data from the ONS migration statistics unit;

Housing Corporation publications from Registered Social Landlord CORE logs (Continuous
Recording) and other statistical returns; and
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009

1.23
local authority housing and planning administrative records.
This information was complemented by a sequence of meetings and discussions held with a wide range
of stakeholders, including individual client groups and professionals involved in housing management
and provision across North Kent and the wider South East Region.
Page 14
Section 2: The Strategic Context
2.1
A central aim of UK government housing policy has been to ensure that everyone has the opportunity
to live in a decent home, which they can afford.
2.2
In 2003, the government set out their current vision for housing in the Communities Plan. This
publication has led to a period of significant change in planning systems across England and Wales, and
the current housing policy document is Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3) and the accompanying
Delivering Affordable Housing, which has recently replaced a series of policies including Planning Policy
Guidance Note 3 (PPG3) and Circular 6/98.
2.3
The objectives of the Communities Plan state that our communities should:
2.4

be economically prosperous;

have decent homes at affordable prices;

safeguard the countryside;

enjoy a well-designed, accessible and pleasant living and working environment; and

be effectively and fairly governed with a strong sense of community.
PPS3 supplements these aims with the requirement that people should also live in a community where
they want to live. An important series of definitions are also presented in PPS3, of which several are
detailed below.
Housing definitions used in PPS3
Housing Need: The quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without
financial assistance.
Housing Demand: The quantity of housing that households are willing and able to buy or rent.
Housing Market Areas: Geographical areas defined by household demand and preferences for housing. They reflect the
key functional linkages between places where people live and work.
2.5
Note that the following definitions relating to social housing, intermediate affordable and affordable
housing are crucial to the SHMA and the interpretation of its housing requirement estimates (our
emphasis in italics).
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
PPS 3 Annexe B definitions relating to affordable housing
Affordable housing
Affordable housing includes social rented and intermediate housing, provided to specified eligible
households whose needs are not met by the market.
Affordable housing should:

Meet the needs of eligible households including availability at a cost low enough for
them to afford, determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices.

Include provision for the home to remain at an affordable price for future eligible
households or, if these restrictions are lifted, for the subsidy to be recycled for
alternative affordable housing provision.
Social rented housing is:
Rented housing owned and managed by local authorities and registered social landlords, for which
guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. The proposals set out in
the Three Year Review of Rent Restructuring (July 2004) were implemented as policy in April 2006.
It may also include rented housing owned or managed by other persons and provided under
equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with the
Housing Corporation as a condition of grant.
Intermediate affordable housing is:
Housing at prices and rents above those of social rent, but below market price or rents, and which
meet the criteria set out above. These can include shared equity products (e.g. HomeBuy), other
low cost homes for sale and intermediate rent.’ These definitions replace guidance given in
Planning Policy Guidance Note 3: Housing (PPG3) and DETR Circular 6/98 Planning and Affordable
Housing.
The definition does not exclude homes provided by private sector bodies or provided without grant
funding. Where such homes meet the definition above, they may be considered, for planning
purposes, as affordable housing. Whereas, those homes that do not meet the definition, for
example, ‘low cost market’ housing, may not be considered, for planning purposes, as affordable
housing.
Affordability
The terms ‘affordability’ and ‘affordable housing’ have different meanings. ‘Affordability’ is a
measure of whether housing may be afforded by certain groups of households. ‘Affordable
housing’ refers to particular products outside the main housing market.
2.6
Notably, one of the six principles of PPS3 is that an evidence-based policy approach to housing
provision is taken:
Local Development Documents and Regional Spatial Strategies policies should be informed by a
robust, shared evidence base, in particular, of housing need and demand, through a Strategic
Housing Market Assessment.
2.7
The Government tasked the nine English regions with setting up a regional housing body or board to
deliver the Communities Plan. The South East of England Regional Assembly (SEERA) is responsible for
delivery in the South East. The regional planning policy is set out in the South East Plan and was
published by the Government in May 2009.
Page 16
Section 2: The Strategic Context
Affordable Housing
2.8
As set out in CLG (2006) Delivering Affordable Housing, national government’s affordable housing
policy is based around three main themes:

Providing high quality homes in mixed sustainable communities for those in need;

Widening the opportunities for home ownership; and

Offering greater quality, flexibility and choice to those who rent.
2.9
The Barker Review of housing supply recommended an increase in socially rented housing to cope with
the growth in need for social housing and the loss of social stock through the Right to Buy.
Subsequently, since the 2004 Comprehensive Spending Review, the government has increased
provision of social housing, and made it a priority in the 2007 Comprehensive Spending Review.
2.10
CLG (2006) Delivering Affordable Housing emphasises the importance of a strategic approach to
housing by local authorities, balancing housing provision with future housing demand. Local authorities
can improve delivery through creative use of their own resources, or through working with other
providers. Housing provision may be direct, using the Housing Private Finance Initiative or by giving
planning permission or land to new providers, helping them to deliver innovative grant free models. To
ensure an effective delivery of a shared vision, close working with regional bodies and with delivery
partners through Local Housing Partnerships is essential.
The South East Region
2.11
The Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) for the South East of England (known as the South East Plan) sets
out the long term spatial planning framework for the region over the years 2006-2026. The Plan is a
key tool to help achieve more sustainable development, protect the environment and combat climate
change. It provides a spatial context within which Local Development Frameworks and Local Transport
Plans need to be prepared, as well as other regional and sub-regional strategies and programmes that
have a bearing on land use activities.
2.12
The Plan includes spatial policies for:

the scale and distribution of new housing;

priorities for new infrastructure and economic development;

the strategy for protecting countryside, biodiversity and the built and historic environment; and

tackling climate change and safeguarding natural resources.
2.13
The plan notes that the South East Region and London are strongly inter-linked. The wealth and
influence of the city spreads by varying degrees throughout the region. There are large commuter
flows with 370,000 South East residents travelling to London each day while 128,000 Londoners travel
outwards to jobs in the South East. The plan concludes that the South East is a multi-centred or
'polycentric' region gathered around London.
2.14
It summarises the challenges facing the region as:
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
2.15

Unprecedented levels of population growth. In mid-2006, the South East was home to about
8.2 million people living in 3.5 million homes. The population is projected to grow by an
unprecedented 64,300 per year over the next 20 years, exceeding a total of 9.5 million by 2026;

Over 64% of the population growth in the 20 years to 2026 is projected to come from those
who are, or will be, aged 60 or above. In 2006, there were about three economically active
people to support every one person of 60 or over. This will reduce to about two by 2026.
There is, therefore, a need to ‘age proof’ all key plans and strategies that aim to shape the
region’s future;

Household size has been declining, leading to a rate of household growth in the South East that
is more than twice as fast as that of population growth. For the region, this means a need to
focus on sustainable strategic solutions for addressing the need and demand for more housing
while taking an innovative approach towards preventing, minimising and mitigating the impacts
of housing and economic growth; and

Housing supply in the South East has been lagging behind population growth and housing
affordability is worsening. In the South East between 2001-2006, there has been a 70%
increase in average house prices, an 88% increase in lower quartile house prices and a nearly
30% increase in the average deposit required by first time buyers. Although current market
conditions have led to a fall in house prices in the region, long-term pressures on housing
supply and affordability remain. Constraints on supply in the current market will only increase
the unmet need for housing. When access to credit returns, a lack of supply will exacerbate
housing pressures, the long term housing supply and affordability challenge therefore remains.
Key policies in the South East plan are:
POLICY H1: REGIONAL HOUSING PROVISION 2006 - 2026
2.16
Local planning authorities will allocate sufficient land and facilitate the delivery of 654,000 net
additional dwellings between 2006 and 2026. In managing the supply of land for housing and in
determining planning applications, local planning authorities should work collaboratively to facilitate
the delivery of the following level of net additional dwellings;
Figure 3
Table H1a Planned Housing Allocations (South East Plan)
Sub region
Kent Thames Gateway
Rest of Kent
2.17
Average Annual delivery
2,607
1,444
Delivery 2006-26
52,140
28,880
Local planning authorities will prepare plans, strategies and programmes to ensure the delivery of the
annual average net additional dwelling requirement as set out in Table H1b of the South East Plan.
Figure 4
Table H1b Planned Housing Allocations by Local Authority (South East Plan)
Local Authority
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
Total
Average Annual delivery
867
465
815
540
2,687
Page 18
Delivery 2006-26
17,340
9,300
16,300
10,800
53,740
Section 2: The Strategic Context
2.18
Other noteworthy housing policies applying to the region are;
Affordable housing
2.19
A substantial increase in the amount of affordable housing in the region will be delivered. Local
authorities and their partners will work to bring together households in need with funding and new
affordable housing stock to support this policy and the Regional Housing Strategy. This will be achieved
by basing policy and funding decisions on a sound evidence base gathered through the strategic
housing market assessment process. Assessments should examine housing need and demand in
relation to both affordable and market housing and where markets cross boundaries should be
conducted jointly between authorities; development and inclusion of targets for the provision of
affordable housing. Targets should take account of housing need and having regard to the overall
regional target within policy H3 which states that 25% of all new housing should be social rented
accommodation and 10% intermediate affordable housing. It should be stressed that according to
policy H3, this target is indicative and evidence based sub-regionally determined targets have
precedence.
2.20
Setting affordable housing targets which are supported by evidence of financial viability and the role of
public subsidy, including the incorporation of locally set thresholds covering the size of site above
which an affordable housing contribution, will be required.
Rural Housing
2.21
Working with local communities in rural areas to secure small scale affordable housing sites within or
well-related to settlements, possibly including land which would not otherwise be released for
development.
Density
2.22
In conjunction with the delivery of high quality design and in order to make good use of available land
and encourage more sustainable patterns of development and services higher housing densities will be
encouraged with an overall regional target of 40 dwellings per hectare over the Plan period (Policy H5).
Local authorities will reflect this target with appropriate local variations in their local development
documents.
KENT THAMES GATEWAY: POLICY KTG4: AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING DEVELOPMENT
2.23
The South East Plan has specific planning policies for the Kent Thames Gateway.
2.24
It states that Local Planning Authorities will allocate sufficient land and facilitate the delivery of 52,140
net additional dwellings in the Kent Thames Gateway between 2006 and 2026. In managing the supply
of land for housing and in determining planning applications, local planning authorities should work
collaboratively to facilitate the delivery of the following level of net additional dwellings in the subregion;
Page 19
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 5
Table H1b - abstract (South East Plan)
Local Authority
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
Total
Average Annual delivery
857
460
785
505
2,607
Delivery 2006-26
17,140
9,200
15,700
10,100
52,140
2.25
Growth at each location will be supported by co-ordinated provision of infrastructure, employment,
environmental improvement and community services.
2.26
An indicative target for affordable housing of 30% of all new dwellings applies to Kent Thames
Gateway.
2.27
Figure 6 is the Key diagram for the Kent Thames Gateway included in the South East Plan.
Figure 6
Key Diagram of the Kent Thames Gateway sub-region (South East Plan 2009)
The Thames Gateway
2.28
Having highlighted the key parts of the South East Plan that refer to the Kent Thames Gateway we now
provide a brief summary of the wider Thames Gateway Regeneration.
Page 20
Section 2: The Strategic Context
2.29
Thames Gateway regeneration was first conceived as the East Thames Corridor and gained prominence
around 1991. The East Thames Corridor Study was published in 1994 and was subsequently enshrined
in policy in RPG9a, The Thames Gateway Planning Framework in 1995. Subsequently, it was included in
Regional Planning Guidance for the South East, RPG9. The Sustainable Communities Plan produced by
the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister in 2003 places the Thames Gateway as one of four major
national areas of growth, along with the Milton Keynes South Midlands area, the London-StanstedCambridge area and Ashford in Kent.
2.30
The Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) and the Homes and Communities
Agency (HCA) together with other key government departments and agencies are closely involved in
the delivery of the Thames Gateway. However, planning jurisdiction within Kent Thames Gateway
remains the responsibility of the local planning authorities who together with the Government, private
sector and other key stakeholders work towards delivering the vision and objectives of the project.
2.31
The DCLG are the authors of The State of the Gateway (November 2006) which reports on the progress
of the regeneration project. It states that between 2000/01 and 2004/05 an estimated average of
5,151 dwellings was completed annually. 80% of these completions were on previously developed land
compared to the national target of 60%. It reports that in the six year period from 1998 to 2004 an
additional 90,000 employees were working in the Gateway, a trend that must continue in order to
meet aspirations for 180,000 jobs by 2016.
2.32
The State of the Gateway document states that whilst deprivation is most acute in the London Thames
Gateway Sub-region, the contrast between Thames Gateway and the wider regions is greatest for the
Kent sub-region and the South East.
2.33
The Investor’s Guide to the Gateway (2007) states that the Thames Gateway will boost the UK economy
by more than £12bn each year and will create a joined up region that links Kent, Medway and Essex to
the global city of London. It also reports that the Government has already invested £7bn in the
Gateway in 2001-7. The Thames Gateway, in short, is the largest regeneration project in Europe.
2.34
It is clear from the Investment Plan that of the 160,000 homes required 108,000 of these will be in 10
designated ‘priority areas’. Of these, three are in North Kent; Ebbsfleet Valley, Kent Thameside
Waterfront and Medway Waterfront and Chattenden. Based around the international high speed rail
link, Ebbsfleet is earmarked for 20,000 new jobs and 10,000 new homes.
2.35
Despite the expansive provision of growth outlined by both the South East Plan and the Thames
Gateway Regeneration Strategies relatively recent changes in the economic climate, particularly with
regards to housing, make these targets harder to reach.
2.36
In March 2009 Savills Research released a paper that examined housing delivery in the South East.
They noted that development in the private sector had virtually ceased. Overall, it was found that total
delivery projections tended to have been pushed out by two to three years, maintaining the five year
total. Savills felt this was a very optimistic view when compared to their own projections. Savills
expect completion levels in the region to decline for the next four years by more than half, making the
prospects for housing delivery more than challenging.
2.37
Kent Thameside has a single delivery vehicle and further remarks relating to it and the Kent Thames
Gateway delivery vehicles are found at the end of this chapter.
Page 21
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Kent
2.38
The Vision for Kent was published in 2002, but has since been updated in 2006. The newer version
provides housing with a more central role and sets out a 20-year vision. However, the Kent and
Medway structure plan upon which the following narrative is based has been superseded by the South
East Plan.
2.39
Key to the Vision is Kent’s position between the global city of London and continental Europe, Kent is in
a key economic position, a position that it has hitherto failed to exploit. However, with the growth of
the European Union, the establishment of international transport links in the county and the
regeneration projects in Ashford and the Thames Gateway, it is undergoing rapid change.
2.40
The vision provides an outline of the county as exists in 2006. The West of Kent enjoys a reputation of
affluence, although it does contain pockets of deprivation and there are problems of affordability. In
the East however, there are major areas in need of regeneration and significant pockets of deprivation
but there are also many assets in the form of coastal towns, a spectacular environment and a rich
heritage.
2.41
The Vision looks for housing growth to be in step with other long term goals. Kent seeks to develop
whole communities, improve the overall quality of the housing stock in the area and integrate new
communities with old ones.
2.42
It is also recognised that funding needs to be secured for both affordable housing and supported
housing demand.
2.43
Supporting older people is also recognised as a priority. The policy aim is to providing older people
with wider choices to facilitate them to move to homes more suited to their needs. The Vision also
attaches importance to promoting the Lifetime Homes standard in new large-scale developments.
2.44
Carrying on from this the Kent Agreement 2 2008-2011, stresses all of these issues and outlines that
these goals must be achieved through partnership working of Local Authorities as well as the County
Council.
2.45
The Kent Agreement 30 month monitoring report was published in September 2007. It reports that
893 private sector homes were brought up to the Decent Homes Standard in 2006/07, significantly
higher than the target of 466 while the number of vacant homes returned to occupation (321) fell
slightly short of the target (372).
2.46
The monitoring report states that most Local Authorities in Kent have an affordable housing target of
35% on sites of 15 or more units. In Medway this is 25% on sites of 25 or more. The Kent Housing
Group is working closely with the Zone agent for Kent to ensure that completions in respect of housing
funded through the key worker programme is updated regularly, and included within the figures.
Page 22
Section 2: The Strategic Context
Introducing North Kent
2.47
The North Kent sub-region is formed form the local authorities of Dartford, Gravesham, Medway and
Swale. At its western edge, Dartford borders Bexley in Greater London with the remaining authorities
stretching eastwards into Kent.
Figure 7
Identifying the Study Area
2.48
In 2004 DTZ Pieda Consulting published ‘Identifying the Local Housing Market of South East England’
which identified 21 sub-regional housing markets in the region. Future housing strategies, the report
recommended, should be carried out according to these sub-regional housing markets.
2.49
DTZ arrived at its conclusions that North Kent is a single housing market using a range of information
including travel to work patterns, population trends, Annual Business Enquiry employment
concentrations and retail catchment areas. However, the detailed discussion in the report reveals that
the finding is not clear cut. Whilst DTZ determined that Swale and Medway form a single market but it
cast doubt over the proposition that that they formed a single housing market with Dartford and
Gravesham, although over time they could become more integrated. Furthermore, given the pull of
the East Kent housing market, as much as half of Swale from Faversham Eastward could be considered
part of that market. The report, therefore, contains some ambiguity, identifying both a North Kent submarket (http://www.southeast-ra.gov.uk/documents/housing/dtz-part_b.pdf para. 1.44) and also
including remarks about Medway and Swale being a separate market (part C Page 39 para. 16
http://www.southeast-ra.gov.uk/documents/housing/dtz-part_c.pdf).
Page 23
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 8
Sub-regional Housing Markets in the South East (Source: Identifying the Local Housing Markets of the South East of England, DTZ
Pieda)
Dartford
The Vision
2.50
Dartford is heavily influenced by Greater London. Also, Dartford together with neighbouring North
Kent authorities, is heavily influenced by the Thames Gateway Regeneration Project.
2.51
Dartford’s Corporate Plan 2008-11 outlines the importance of economic development in the area. The
financial services, environmental technologies, creative industries and construction/logistics sectors
have been identified as the industries most likely to lead to sustained growth of the local economy. A
vibrant town centre at the heart of economic, social and cultural life is also a key target of the local
authority. It is felt that at the moment Dartford town centre is not fulfilling its potential.
2.52
The potential growth of Ebbsfleet, with its international rail link and the continued expansion of the
Crossways business park are both evidence of Dartford’s growth potential. The council aims to match
the number of economically active residents coming into the borough with new jobs while creating
opportunities for those who commute. This means creating two jobs for each of the 16,000 new
homes built.
2.53
The Council seeks to promote Dartford as a long-term place of choice. This means they hope for a
balanced age mix and feel that family housing with gardens are the housing product that is most likely
to promote strong and stable communities. It is also felt they are most able to adapt to the changing
pattern of housing demand.
2.54
Overall though, with regards to housing, the Corporate Plan outlines two key strategies:

To meet the housing needs of the Borough and achieve self reliant communities; and
Page 24
Section 2: The Strategic Context

To increase the percentage of both the private rented and public housing stock reaching the
Decent Homes standard.
Economy
2.55
Recent years have witnessed a decline in traditional industries in Dartford, replaced by a growing
number of global and national offices and logistics operators established at Crossways Business Park as
well as a significant amount of job creation from the establishment of Bluewater Retail Park.
2.56
It is estimated that there were 48,300 jobs in the borough in 2006, representing a 47% increase from
1995. In 2006, 76% of residents of working age were economically active with a higher job density than
Kent as a whole.
2.57
Unemployment has declined from 2.1% in 2006 to 1.8% in October 2008, slightly below the Kent
average of 1.9%.
2.58
The average house price in 2007 was £213,443, lower than the average price in Kent of £223,382.
Average house prices have risen by 78% between 2001 and 2008. This is lower than the national
average price increase of 98% during the same period.
2.59
Dartford had an estimated population growth of 6% between 2001 and 2007, compared with an
average rate of 5% across the county of Kent (excluding Medway). From Kent County Council
projections it is estimated that the population will increase by 37.7% between 2001 and 2026, leading
to a population figure at the end of the period of 118,500.
2.60
38% of residents lived and worked in Dartford in 2001. There was a slight decrease in the number of
residents commuting to London from 43% in 1991 to 39.5% in 2001. Forecasts indicate that the
resident working population is expected to increase by 16,100 between 2006 and 2026.
2.61
There are estimated to be 38,000 households in Dartford in 2007, an 8.5% increase in the number of
households since 2001. It is estimated that there will be an increase of 50.6% in households between
2001 and 2026.
Trajectory
2.62
The South East Plan requirement is for Dartford Borough to provide 17,340 homes between 2006 and
2026.
2.63
The Dartford Annual Monitoring Report 2008 reports that 603 homes were provided during the
monitoring year, 90 homes less than the forecast from the previous year as a result of the economic
downturn experienced in the latter half of 2008. More than 30% of these homes were affordable
homes and 85% of these affordable homes were flats.
2.64
1,262 homes have been built since 2006 and a further 16,078 homes will need to be provided by 2026
to meet the targets of the South East Plan. The land is available to meet these requirements but more
likely to hinder achievement of the target might be the inability of developers to build homes and the
infrastructure required to support them due to economic circumstances.
2.65
The economic downturn experienced in the latter half of 2008 will force changes to housing delivery
plans. Underperformance in the early part of the period from 2008 will be compensated for by a higher
rate of delivery at the end of the plan period enabling the South East Plan target to be met.
Page 25
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 9
Dartford Housing Trajectory: Comparison between Estimates in March 2008 and those after the economic downturn. (Source: Dartford Annual
Monitoring Report 2008)
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/2013
Actual/estimated
delivery (2008/9
onward)
646
403
625
403
569
603
653
721
1181
1917
1821
Actual/estimated
delivery (2008/9
onward) taking
the downturn
into account
646
403
625
403
569
603
495
197
456
814
1284
2.66
It is predicted that the recession will cause a significant fall in deliveries right up to 2013/14 when
compared against the South East Plan projections. However, from this time onwards it is felt that
recovery will be sufficient to begin exceeding these targets and make up the shortfall.
Gravesham
The Vision
2.67
Gravesham covers a geographic area of 99 square kilometres, with the primary urban sites of
Gravesend and Northfleet situated adjacent to the River Thames. In rural areas 78% of land is part of
the greenbelt with high quality landscape.
2.68
The Gravesham Corporate Plan 2008-2011 ‘A Place of Choice’ states the council's priorities and goals
as follows:
Existing communities

Environment - to achieve a safe, clean and green Place of Choice;

Communities - to foster vibrant and cohesive communities with affirmative action to promote
meaningful engagement, diversity and social inclusion, health and well-being, leisure and
culture; and

Housing - to seek to provide and work with others to ensure quality and affordable housing.
Future communities

Business - to secure a sustainable and buoyant economy, particularly in the town centre and
Ebbsfleet, with attractive investment opportunities and a developing tourism market; and

Regeneration - to maximise regeneration opportunities for the benefit of existing and new
communities.
Service provision

Transformation - to transform the council into an economically sound organisation delivering
excellent accessible services that provide value-for-money.
Page 26
Section 2: The Strategic Context
2.69
Therefore, housing and regeneration are main priorities of the borough. This is greatly influenced by
the Authority’s position within the Thames Gateway, and it is of great importance to the Council that
the benefit of this regeneration is enjoyed by both new and established residents.
2.70
Community safety is also very important to the Local Authority, an element of civil life that would
appear to have undergone great improvement with crime figures amongst the best in the UK and the
most improved in the region.
2.71
Community cohesion and reducing the fear of crime is also a key concern of the Authority. In keeping
with this theme is the introduction of a community engagement strategy to provide the context to
ensure that everyone has the opportunity to input into the process.
2.72
In order to achieve its vision Gravesham Borough Council recognises the importance of infrastructure.
Thus the integration of high speed domestic rail services with the new international service at Ebbsfleet
is seen as crucial. To this aim the Council also plan to pursue investment to improve North Kent line
stations including the Crossrail Gravesend to Northfleet service. In addition, it is felt, the Fastrack bus
service also needs to feature as a key part of the sustainable transport infrastructure.
2.73
Key regeneration projects will include the redevelopment of the Gravesend Canal Basin. However the
largest regeneration will take place on Gravesham’s border with Dartford. Ebbsfleet Valley represents
a central piece in the Thames Gateway regeneration. This will be connected, both internally and
externally, by the Fastrack transport system.
2.74
Gravesend and Dartford have a joint local strategic partnership and joint Community Strategy.
Trajectory
2.75
Remarks concerning the South East Plan (above) distinguish between the housing targets affecting
Gravesham within and without the Kent Thames Gateway 2006-26.
2.76
The annual monitoring reports for the years 2001-2007 state that there were 1,526 dwellings
completed in Gravesham, with 235 in 2007/8, 85% of these were on previously developed land.
2.77
According to Gravesham’s latest AMR average completions in the last three years 2005/6-7/8 is 271 per
annum. This is below the Kent and Medway 2006 annualised requirement 5 year average of 300
completions and far short of the South East Plan target of 465 completions per annum.
2.78
At the time of the publication of the Corporate Plan the Council was setting the target of securing the
funding for a Decent Homes programme for council housing stock. It is hoped that this will be achieved
in the first quarter of 2010.
2.79
In order to meet affordable housing needs the Council aims to maintain its policy that sites of 15 units
or more provide at least of 30% affordable housing. It also intends to review existing partnerships with
RSLs for gaps and duplication in delivery, and to target areas identified in the Housing Needs Survey.
Page 27
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 10
Gravesham Housing Trajectory (Source: Gravesham Annual Monitoring Report 2008)
2.80
2001/2
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/2013
137
137
209
464
274
305
235
698
872
521
537
300
Whilst it would appear that there are sufficient committed and allocated sites for the short to medium
term, the Gravesham AMR reports that additional sites are needed in the longer term. As such the
Council is undertaking a Strategic Land Availability Assessment.
Economy
2.81
Economic regeneration is perhaps the defining theme of planning policy in Gravesham. Most of this
will centre in the town centre and Ebbsfleet with opportunities for the development of the tourism
industry. The Authority also intends to promote the arts, leisure, culture and sport. The
implementation of a ‘Charles Dickens trail’ to mark the bicentennial of the Kentish writer’s birth is an
example of the growing awareness of the potential of tourism in the area. As such the Corporate Plan
outlines the need for a medium-term strategy for tourism and the need for marketing campaigns to
promote the borough to potential visitors.
2.82
More broadly however the Corporate Plan calls for the development of an economic development
strategy in March 2009.
Medway
The Vision
2.83
Due to a series of hearings after the submission of the Core Strategy and the housing and mixed use
development plan documents, and their subsequent withdrawal, Medway has been set back in its
planning process.
2.84
Despite this a number of key aspirations emerge from the number of documents that are available.
Medway is keen to fulfil its potential as a key part of the regeneration of the Thames Gateway,
representing, as it does, the largest Unitary Authority in the South East outside of London.
2.85
Medway currently has a population of 250,000 people and has a younger population than the England
average. However the older person population is increasing with this group forecasted to grow by as
much as 75% between 2003 and 2028. The Community Plan, therefore, sets a challenge to support
older people in maintaining their independence.
2.86
Single person households make up a third of households in Medway, reflecting national trends in family
structure and the rise in the numbers of older people living alone.
2.87
5.4% of the population of Medway are from ethnic minority communities compared to 8.7% nationally.
2.88
The 2001 census identified 37,497 people with a long term illness, significantly higher than the figure
from the previous census. However, at 15% of the population this remains lower than the national
average of 18%.
2.89
Although Medway has a low proportion of flats compared to the national average it has been
increasing recently, a trend that looks set to continue.
Page 28
Section 2: The Strategic Context
Economy
2.90
At ward level Medway has some of the most affluent and some of the most deprived boroughs in the
country.
2.91
The Medway community plan states that house prices in Medway have doubled since 1999, while
earnings have increased by a third.
2.92
In terms of employment growth Medway is targeting the creation of another 19,000 new jobs, to give
an interim target of 26,500 jobs by 2016. In order to do this Medway is targeting development in
certain sectors, including high technology manufacturing, creative industries and environment
technologies.
2.93
Only 8.6% of people in Medway are educated to degree level or higher, compared to 14.4% nationally.
Indeed, in 2004, it is believed that 20% of vacancies were due to skill shortages.
Trajectory
Figure 11
Medway Housing Trajectory (Source: Medway Annual Monitoring Report 2008)
2001/2
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
603
676
733
646
562
591
761
1182
1048
1543
1260
937
2.94
Completions compared to structure plan review:
Figure 12
Medway Housing Completions compared to Structure Plan Review Requirements (Source: Medway Annual Monitoring Report 2008)
Structure plan
Requirements
Actual Completions
2.95
2001/2
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
700
700
700
700
700
780
780
603
676
733
646
562
591
761
Medway’s latest AMR states that between 2001 and 2007 3,811 net additional dwellings were built in
the authority. In the monitoring year this figure stood at 761 dwellings. In the next 5 years it is
predicted a further 5,970 will be completed, with 1,487 in the following 5 year period and 917 in the
five years after that.
Swale
The Vision
2.96
Swale covers 364 square kilometres with a population of 125,000 in its three main towns and rural
areas. Its location close to the European mainland and situation within the Thames Gateway make it a
key strategic area.
2.97
Between 1991 and 2001 the population of Swale grew by 5.8% to 122,801 and was recorded as 130,300
in 2007. These increases are attributed to migration.
2.98
A rising older person population is cited as cause for concern socially as well as the fact that affordable
housing provision has fallen well below need. Indeed, the borough has endured an affordable housing
shortfall of 428 units per year, especially for flats and terraced housing.
Page 29
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
2.99
Swale Borough Council publishes their priorities in the following order:

regeneration Swale;

creating a cleaner and greener Swale;

promoting a safer and stronger community; and

becoming a high performing organisation.
2.100
Swale’s Sustainable Communities Plan 2016 identifies the borough’s skills and learning base as the
number one issue affecting the area. Swale has the highest proportion in the South East of adults with
no qualifications. To address this, the borough hopes to have a newly built centre of further education
in the borough by 2010. At the same time they expect to have completed a library in Sittingbourne as
well as several other measures to facilitate further learning.
2.101
The Plan also demonstrates the borough’s intention to create a community which is both vibrant and
safe. It is hoped that by tackling Swale’s poor provision of facilities and amenities the issue of antisocial behaviour can be handled.
2.102
This can be helped by tackling another major issue in Swale; connectivity. The Council hope, therefore,
to deliver a sustainable and integrated transport and communication network in order to facilitate
economic growth and cater to a growing population.
2.103
It is also felt that the housing stock in the borough is not of sufficient quality, an issue that it is felt
needs addressing. Similarly, the Sustainable Communities Plan identifies homelessness as a significant
and persistent issue in the borough. By 2010 it is hoped that there will be a large increase in the
volume of affordable housing in the borough with all developments coming after consultation with
residents. Sittingbourne and Sheerness town centres will both undergo regeneration providing new
attractive homes with sustainable designs and locations. By 2016, it is hoped all homes in Swale meet
the decent homes standard.
Economy
2.104
In 2007 there were a total of 42,600 employee jobs in the borough, whilst in March 2008
unemployment stood at 2.1%, a reduction by 0.5% since 2007. This compares favourably with the
national average of 2.2%.
2.105
Many residents of the borough commute to jobs in other authorities. 60% of the resident working
population do just this on a daily basis.
2.106
In 2006/07 the average house price in Swale was £178,455, by 2007/08 it had risen to £182,910. More
dramatically, this represents a 79% increase from the 2001 figure.
2.107
The 2008 AMR reports that Swale’s economic performance is stable, although diversification remains a
little sluggish.
2.108
Swale’s Sustainable Communities Plan 2026 outlines the desire of the borough to achieve a dynamic
economy increasingly focused on knowledge-intensive industries. It is hoped key economic sectors
such as tourism can be used to fully take advantage of the borough’s location. Overall, however, the
Plan identifies that a lack of quality commercial land is an obstacle to regeneration.
Page 30
Section 2: The Strategic Context
Trajectory
2.109
The AMR reports good performance thus far against the KMSP targets, although this is expected to
change in the coming weeks with the slowing of completions caused by the economic downturn. Since
2001 4,628 dwellings were completed, 852 of which were completed in the monitoring year (2007/08)
which is well above the Structure Plan’s annualised average.
Figure 13
Swale Housing Trajectory (Source: Swale Annual Monitoring Report 2008)
2.110
2001/2
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/2013
659
568
570
375
854
835
852
620
798
851
609
391
The Local plan and the Swale Regeneration Framework and Economic development strategy confirm
the need to diversify the local economy into other areas, particularly in new technology and life
sciences.
Kent Thameside
2.111
The Kent Thameside Regeneration Partnership brings together public sector agencies and private
sector bodies to provide a strategic framework for regeneration.
2.112
The Partnership’s Regeneration Framework is a focussed, collective effort ensuring that the
Communities and Local Government's Thames Gateway Delivery Plan is delivered in a co-ordinated and
timely way.
2.113

encourages businesses of all sizes to become more competitive;

promotes high quality public transport provision;

delivers innovation and mixed use in developments;

integrates new and existing communities to improve quality of life;

raises standards in education and skills; and

enhances the natural and man-made environment.
Kent Thameside encompasses the thriving town centres of Dartford and Gravesend plus Bluewater,
Ebbsfleet International and Ebbsfleet Valley – identified as one of four ‘transformational’ projects in the
Thames Gateway. It has an unrivalled opportunity to increase prosperity and enhance quality of life.
The vision is for a distinct and vibrant destination of choice for living and working.

the most ambitious and exciting regeneration project in the UK;

plans to create 50,000 jobs and 25,000 homes by 2026;

around £2 billion planned investment;

17 minutes to London from Ebbsfleet International in 2009;

70 minutes via the HighSpeed1 rail link to the Continent;
Page 31
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009

Bluewater, Europe's largest shopping and leisure destination; and

fastrack, the award-winning Bus Rapid Transit system linking new and existing homes and
businesses.
Medway Renaissance
2.114
Medway Renaissance is a local regeneration partnership in Medway which has been set up by
Medway Council and is funded by the Communities and Local Government (CLG) through the Thames
Gateway Programme.
2.115
It is directly responsible for projects involving over £120million of CLG funding and in partnership with
the private sector and other agencies, takes a lead role in major physical regeneration and
development projects for Medway. The team has now completed the Regeneration Framework for
Medway which sets out the delivery plan for Medway. The vision is that it becomes a polycentric city
of learning, culture, tourism and enterprise. The 20-year regeneration programme will draw in more
than £1billion of private sector investment.
2.116
Particular initiatives include:
2.117

town centre regeneration;

economic growth;

community infrastructure;

culture; and

waterfront projects.
Medway Renaissance was consulted during the SHMA project and comments concerning the local
economy, regeneration and housing delivery are included in appropriate parts of the report.
Swale Forward
2.118
Swale Forward is the local regeneration partnership for the Borough of Swale and co-ordinates the
delivery of Swale's main regeneration projects.
2.119
The partnership brings together the Borough and County Councils, the South East England
Development Agency (SEEDA) and the local private and voluntary sectors. Swale Forward's vision is 'to
achieve a transformation in Swale's economic, social and environmental profile so that it is one of the
best places in Britain in which to live, work, learn and invest'.
2.120
Since its establishment in 2004, Swale Forward has played a central role in support of the development
of major schemes at Queenborough and Rushenden and in Sittingbourne town centre, and in securing
the funding for major infrastructure to support the Borough's continued development. The partnership
has also placed a major emphasis on investment in learning and skills, which it has for some time
recognised as Swale's top regeneration priority. (http://www.tgkp.org/?31)
2.121
The partnership has 3 main priorities;
Page 32
Section 2: The Strategic Context

delivering Swale's major employment and housing priorities;

achieving joined-up regeneration; and

championing Swale's agenda.
The Thames Gateway North Kent Multi Area Agreement (MAA) 2009
2.122
The MAA is focused on achieving our sustainable economic growth and regeneration targets and
has recently been agreed between Central and local Government.
2.123
The main themes are:

developing new investment and funding mechanisms to underpin infrastructure delivery;

increasing skills and employability to equip the workforce;

securing sustainable transport and connectivity; and

fostering sustainable communities in tandem with housing growth.
Page 33
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Summary of Key Points
South East

The South East plan calls for 28,900 net additional homes to be built annually between 2006 and 2026, however the proposed
changes (July 2008) calls for an additional 33,125 homes over the plan period as a minimum.

The Plan sets the target for 35% of its completions to be affordable equating to an annual provision of 12,000 affordable homes
– a considerable increase on previous years. Two thirds should be in the form of social rented dwellings.

The proposed changes to the South East Plan sets targets for the four authorities within North Kent as 9,300 new dwellings in
Gravesham, 10,800 in Swale, 17,340 in Dartford and 11,080 in Medway. There are also targets for density of new dwellings to
be at no less than 40 dwellings per hectare.
The Thames Gateway

Parts of Kent, including parts of North Kent fall within the Thames Gateway growth area, one of four major national growth
areas. It is considered the largest regeneration project in Europe, with a population of 1.45 million, and 637,000 people
employed in the area, many of them in the 32,000 VAT registered businesses. It is hoped to boost the UK economy by £12
billion a year.

The State of the Gateway (DCLG) reports that between 2000/01 and 2004/05 an estimates average of 5,151 dwellings were
completed annually and 80% of these were on previously developed land.

Ebbsfleet and Eastern Quarry in Gravesham have in particular been identified as large centres for growth and are earmarked for
20,000 new jobs and £10,000 new homes. In total the Gateway is planned to provide 160,000 new homes - of these 108,000 of
these will be in designated ‘priority areas’, 3 of which (Ebbsfleet Valley, Kent Thameside Waterfront and Medway Waterfront
and Chattenden) are in North Kent.

The Homes and Communities Agency intends to invest £800 million in around £15,000 affordable homes, however relatively
recent changes in the economic climate may make these targets harder to reach. Savills expect completion levels in the region
to decline for the next four years by more than half increasing the challenge to deliver housing.
Kent

The Vision identifies the areas of Dartford and Gravesham as areas of regeneration and Swale is also noted for its proposed
housing growth. The need for a range of housing types including ‘smart homes’ for home working and learning and ‘Lifetime
Homes’ for older persons is also recognised.
North Kent

In 2004 DTZ Pieda Consulting published ‘Identifying the Local Housing Markets of South East England’ which, using to work
patterns, population trends, employment concentrations and retail catchment areas identified 21 sub-regional housing markets
for which should be used when carrying out future housing studies. Swale and Medway was determined as a single market
although they considered they formed a single market with Dartford and Gravesham that could become more integrated over
time.
Dartford

Owing to its location adjacent to London, Dartford is heavily influenced by the capital and by the Thames Gateway
Regeneration Project. The Growth of Ebbsfleet is evidence of Dartford’s growth and there is recognition of the importance of
creating new jobs and providing suitable infrastructure to support the growth.

The South East Plan required Dartford Borough to provide 15,700 homes between 2006 and 2026 (17,340 in the Government’s
proposed changes 2008).

As a result of the economic downturn and a likely significant fall in deliveries up to 2014 the latest trajectory predicts a peak of
1,500 homes being delivered in 2013/14 with underperformance in the early part of the plan period will be compensated by a
higher delivery rate at the end.
Page 34
Section 2: The Strategic Context
Gravesham

The Gravesham Corporate Plan 2008-2011 ‘A Place of Choice’ outlines regeneration as the top priority for the Borough; this is
greatly influenced by Gravesham’s position within the Thames Gateway Regeneration Strategy.

Development in Gravesend will include improved infrastructure (particularly train lines and stations), the redevelopment of the
Gravesend Canal Basin and the regeneration of Ebbsfleet Valley.

The South East Plan 2006-2026 calls for 9,300 new dwellings, only 100 of which are not part of the Thames Gateway provision.
Further changes to the plan do not change Gravesham’s figures. The Corporate Plan gives a target of 300 additional dwellings
between 2008 and 2011, 90 of which must be affordable.

Between 2001 and 2007 1,526 dwellings were completed in Gravesham, 85% of which were on previously developed land. The
annual average of 271 dwellings per annum over the past three years is below target.
Medway

Medway is the largest Unitary Authority in the South East outside of London and is keen to fulfil its potential as part of the
regeneration of the Thames Gateway despite being set back in the planning process.

The population of Medway (250,000) is younger than the average population age for England. However it has an increasing
older person population. 15% of the total population have a long term illness. Single person households make up a third of all
households in Medway and around 5% are from ethnic minority communities.

Since 1999 earnings have increased by a third and house prices have doubled. Medway aim to create 19,000 new jobs by 2016.

Between 2001 and 2007 3,811 net additional dwellings were built in Medway. 761 were completed in the monitoring year
which is above target - the target was not reached in 5 out of the 6 precious years. It is predicted that a further 5,970 will be
completed in the next 5 years with 1,487 in the following 5 years and 917 in the five years after that.
Swale

Swale’s location, close to the European mainland and within the Thames Gateway, makes it a key strategic area. It is an area
where unemployment has fallen and house prices have greatly increased.

The borough has a significant annual shortfall of affordable housing. It is hoped there will be a large increase in the supply of
affordable dwellings by 2010 and both Sittingbourne and Sheerness town centres will undergo regeneration providing
attractive homes with sustainable designs and locations.

Although the economic downturn is expected to reduce completions, up until now the borough has performed well against
targets. Since 2001 4,628 dwellings were completed, 767 of which were completed in the monitoring year (2007/08).
Page 35
Section 3: Identifying Local Housing Sub-Markets
within the Sub-Region
Housing Sub-Markets in the North Kent Sub-Region
3.1
3.2
Our methodology to identify sub-regional housing market areas is based on two key guidance
documents:

Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3): this identifies Housing Market Areas as being geographical
areas defined by household demand and preferences for housing. They reflect the key
functional linkages between places where people live and work; and

CLG Guidance: In March 2007, the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG)
issued an Advice Note on “Identifying sub-regional housing market areas”. This note
recognised that local authorities in several regions had already developed approaches to
defining sub-regional housing market areas and it therefore sought to identify emerging good
practice.
The study also considers:

working geographies for the analysis of housing markets (at local level and beyond);

looking beyond the North Kent sub-region’s boundaries where appropriate; and

the evidence on housing market boundaries emerging from studies carried out by neighbouring
sub-regions/local authorities where they are relevant to North Kent sub-region’s housing
markets.
Sources of Information and Approach
3.3
3.4
The CLG advice note identifies three sources of information which help to evidence local housing submarkets, namely:

house prices and rates of change in house prices, which reflect household demand and
preferences for different sizes and types of housing in different locations;

household migration and search patterns, reflecting preferences and the trade-offs made when
choosing housing with different characteristics; and

contextual data, such as travel to work areas, which reflect the functional relationships
between places where people work and live.
These methods identified for defining housing market areas can be sub-divided into two broad
approaches:

The first approach seeks to identify and group together areas with similar characteristics; and
Page 37
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009

The second approach seeks to identify and group together areas which show a degree of selfcontainment (in terms of either migration and/or employment patterns).
Identifying and Grouping Areas with Similar Characteristics
3.5
Classifying sub-markets using the first approach will tend to yield a larger number of small areas, but
each area will tend to have residents with similar characteristics. If such characteristics change,
perhaps young single persons join together and become family households, they are likely to move into
a different housing sub-market. For example, a couple may choose to leave a town centre apartment
for a home with a garden in a more suburban location.
Identifying and Grouping Areas with a Degree of Self containment
3.6
Using the second approach for classification tends to yield fewer sub-markets, but within each of the
identified areas, there should be housing available for residents of all types. If the identified area has a
balanced housing market, all households should be able to find housing to meet their requirements at a
price that they can afford.
3.7
If there is insufficient housing of any particular type, households seeking such housing will inevitably
widen their search areas in order to find the housing that they require. On the assumption that their
employment circumstances don’t change, they will all have to commute. Therefore, the lack of any
particular type of housing will, over time, change the patterns of containment in relation to both
migration and employment such that the sub-market boundaries will eventually be redefined to include
areas catering for the “missing” types of housing. Alternatively, the gap in the local market may be
recognised and the “missing” types of housing may be provided within the local area.
Data Sources Used
3.8
There is an increasing amount of secondary data available that can be drawn on to help understand
each of these factors. It is important to recognise that no one single approach (nor one single data
source) can provide a definitive answer, but through considering the range of available data, it is
possible to form a judgement on an appropriate geography for sub-market areas.
3.9
The data sources that have been considered in the course of this analysis include:
Data Source
Contents
Geography
Dates
2001 Census
Tenure, household type, age, migration, travel to work,
education, household amenities, religion, employment
and health
Census Output Area
and a 5% sample of
individual records)
2001
Land Registry records
Record of all properties sold including selling price and
tenure
Individual records
including 7 digit
postcode
2000
onwards
CORE data on social lettings
Individual records of recent tenants in the social sector
including household size, ethnicity, income and housing
benefit claimants
Individual records
including 7 digit
postcode
2004
onwards
Index of Multiple Deprivation
data from the CLG
National measure of relative deprivation which also
incorporates education, health, income, crime and social
wellbeing
Census Output Area
2004 and
2007
ONS National Health Service
Customer Records
Record of inter local authority migration
Local authority
Annual
since 1997
DEFRA Rural Definition
Classification of Census Output Areas by morphology
(urban, rural town, village, hamlet/isolated dwellings) and
context (sparse, less sparse)
Census Output Area
2004
Page 38
Section 3: Identifying Housing Markets
Defining Sub-Regional Housing Market Areas
Identifying Sub-Areas in North Kent
3.10
One method for identifying housing markets is through an analysis of house prices. Neighbouring
areas which contain similar house prices are also likely to share many other similar characteristics,
which could lead to them being viewed as being a housing market.
Figure 14
Relative House Prices across South East England (Source: UK Land Registry November 2007 to October2008)
3.11
Figure 14 shows the variation of house prices from the mean across the South East region from
November 2007 to October 2008 by Middle Super Output Areas (MSOA). Areas in the darkest shade
of orange contain house prices which are over 150% of the South East average and those in the
darkest shade of green are less than 75% of the average. The majority of house prices in the North
Kent sub-region are below the South East average.
3.12
Figure 15 shows a closer view of relative house prices across North Kent. This identifies that house
prices in Dartford and Gravesham are typically higher than those in Medway and Swale.
Page 39
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 15
House Prices Across Kent Compared to the South East Average (Source: UK Land Registry November 2007 to October 2008)
Conclusions
3.13
If we were seeking to identify sub-markets on the basis of areas with similar characteristics, the above
maps would suggest that the much of Dartford and Gravesham would form one sub-market whereas
Medway and Swale form a separate housing market area. However, due to road and rail
communications linking these areas to Central and Greater London, the whole area might be regarded
as a single market and commuter belt.
3.14
It is necessary to consider the spatial extent of the housing market from other perspectives in order to
test these possibilities. We test these possibilities against employment and migration information next
before a final conclusion is reached.
Page 40
Section 3: Identifying Housing Markets
Using Employment and Migration Patterns to Define Housing Market Areas
3.15
We can identify travel to work behaviour
through analysis of the 2001 Census data.
3.16
The data identifies that 172,640 people both
live and work in North Kent. This represents
around 66% of all those living in the area who
have a job, and 81% of all those who work in
North Kent. Of this group 20,852 work mainly
at or from home, this is 8.0% of all those
residents of North Kent who have jobs.
3.17
The majority of people working in North Kent
come from North Kent (81%), followed by Rest
of Kent (10%) and London (6%). Whilst the
majority of those travelling from (and in) North
Kent work in North Kent (66%) a significant
proportion travel to work to London (19%) and
the Rest of Kent (12%), (Figure 16).
Figure 16
Travel to Work Patterns for Residents in North Kent in 2001
(Source: Census 2001)
Travel to Work
UK Region
To North
Kent
From
North
Kent
Net
North Kent
Rest of Kent
Rest of South East
East
East Midlands
London
North East
North West
Northern Ireland
Scotland
South West
Wales
West Midlands
Yorkshire and the
Humber
172,640
20,939
1,578
2,523
256
12,893
287
240
12
86
310
118
159
172,640
31,267
3,111
3,120
237
48,804
96
204
6
134
436
72
299
0
(10,328)
(1,533)
(597)
19
(35,911)
191
36
6
(48)
(126)
46
(140)
227
206
21
Total
212,268
260,632
(48,364)
3.18
From this it can be argued that the sub-region
as a whole has the makings of a housing market area, as it reflects where people both live and work.
However, if we consider further information on migration, travel to work and house prices patterns it is
also possible to identify functional sub-markets, where the majority of the local population live, work
and move within smaller geographic units.
3.19
ORS has developed an effective methodology for identifying housing sub-markets over a number of
years and in particular the mechanisms for mapping (and otherwise visualising) the large quantity of
data being analysed.
3.20
Practice Guidance recommends that when considering local housing market areas, it is important to
exclude the impact of substantial housing markets outside the area which may still influence local
patterns.
3.21
However it should be noted that the influence of London is significant. The South East Plan also
recognises this and concludes that ‘the result is that the South East is a multi-centred or 'polycentric'
region gathered around London’. The focus of this study is therefore regarding part of the polycentric
region.
3.22
Figure 17 illustrates the influence of London on an area which covers large parts of Kent. The colours
show how large a proportion of the total workforce travel to work in London. Areas coloured in red
have 35% or more of their workforce travelling to London to work. Meanwhile, areas in dark blue have
less than 5% of their workforce travelling to London.
Page 41
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 17
Travel to Work to London (Source: UK Census of Population 2001. Note: Bands represent the percentage of the employed resident population who
work in the London region)
Defining Housing Market Areas for the Sub-region
3.23
Whilst acknowledging the impact of London as described in the previous section, the following remarks
about self containment are based upon the functional relationships between the main urban centres,
Figure 18, excluding London. Information about the inter-relationships between areas within the North
Kent sub-region is presented in a different way. Where those Census Output Areas that are either (i)
classified “urban” by the DEFRA classification or (ii) have large workplace populations, they are grouped
together to form nodes. Surrounding areas outside the sub-region are also included for completeness.
3.24
These urban centres (or nodes) have been colour coded according to their relative self-containment.
The figure inside the settlement denotes the number of residents who both live and work in that urban
centre. The colour of the node represents this as a proportion of all workers living in the area,
excluding those who commute to London, as an indicator of the area’s self-containment on the basis of
the following bands:
3.25

Green = above 65% of employees living in the area also work in the area;

Amber = 50 to 65% of employees living in the area also work in the area; and

Red = below 50% of employees living in the area also work in the area.
The links that exist between the urban centres are also illustrated by the joining lines, with stronger
links having heavier lines. The lines between the settlements indicate the significance of the link
between the two inter-connected areas, with thicker lines indicating that the connection is stronger.
Note that the line thickness (and the very presence/absence of lines) is based on the relative
proportion of workers that travel between the two areas as opposed to the absolute numbers. For
example, 200 workers travelling from an area with a total of 2,000 workers is considered to be of
Page 42
Section 3: Identifying Housing Markets
significance; whereas 200 workers travelling from an area with a total of 20,000 workers is typically not
shown.
3.26
The number shown on the line indicates the gross travel to work in either direction between the two
areas. For example, there are a total of 5,300 workers who either live in Dartford and work in
Gravesend or alternatively live in Gravesend and work in Dartford.
Figure 18
Identifying the Links between Urban Centres in the Study Area (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 combined with DEFRA Classifications)
Page 43
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Conclusions: Housing Market Areas in North Kent sub-region
3.27
3.28
Within the study area Figure 18 highlights that;

Dartford has more than 65% self-containment when analysing their travel to work patterns;

Gillingham/Rochester/Chatham have 50%-65% self-containment, while the remaining larger
settlements in North Kent sub-region have less than 50% self-containment; and

typically, housing sub-markets are considered to be areas with at least 65% self-containment,
implying that Dartford meets this definition, while other settlements in the study area do not.
Given that many of the identified settlements have relatively poor levels of self-containment the next
step is to combine them to form larger housing sub-markets. Whilst there is no definitive answer to
the final groupings, the following observations informed and/or were considered by the next stage of
analysis:

Dartford and Gravesend are closely tied to each other and also to London. Dartford also has a
number of satellite settlements (Swanley, Hartley and Swanscombe) which naturally combine
with the larger urban centre;

the major towns in Medway are closely connected and have grown over time to form one
continuous urban area, which exerts an influence over much of the surrounding area. There is
little connection between Medway and either Gravesend or Sittingbourne but has a stronger
connection with Maidstone; and

Sittingbourne links to a series of satellite towns (Sheerness, Minster and Faversham) which help
to form a wider area. Faversham also links strongly to Canterbury and potentially could link
with either Canterbury or Sittingbourne. These settlements have only weak links to the
emerging sub markets in the rest of north Kent.
Understanding the Identified Housing Market Areas in the Study Area
3.29
3.30
Figure 19 illustrates the outcome of the computer aided analysis. The above groupings were
introduced into the analysis and links between the settlements recalculated. The final sub-market
groups within the study area can be summarised:

Dartford and Gravesend;

Medway * (Gillingham/Rochester/Chatham/Rainham/Strood); and

Sittingbourne.
Medway Council has and continues to spend time and resources to re-brand the area as a single urban
centre known as Medway. The work of Sir Terry Farrell, who has been appointed Medway Design
Champion, has led to an overall conclusion about the future of the Medway Towns. There is a strong
possibility that these can, if local people agree, be combined to form a ‘new’ city, drawing strength
from their existing characters. See:
http://www.medwayrenaissance.com/resources/documents/Five_Towns_Make_a_City.pdf
3.31
The sub-markets in North Kent sub-region are shown in more detail below, together with the four local
authority administrative boundaries.
Page 44
Section 3: Identifying Housing Markets
3.32
The analysis suggests that there are three substantial sub-markets covering most of this area. Dartford
and Gravesend to the west of the area, Medway in the centre and Sittingbourne to the east. The
analysis also shows that the Dartford and Gravesham housing sub-market extends into Sevenoaks, but
not as far as the major town of Sevenoaks. The Sittingbourne housing sub-market covers much of
Swale, but there is an encroachment from the Canterbury housing sub-market which covers the
eastern part of the borough up to the town of Faversham.
3.33
These finding are broadly in line with those obtained by DTZ in their 2004 housing market area study.
Figure 19
Identifying the Functional Housing Sub-Markets across the Whole North Kent Sub-Region (Source: North Kent Strategic Housing Market
Assessment 2009)
Page 45
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Summary of Key Points

Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3) identify Housing Market Areas as being geographical areas defined by household
demand and preferences for housing. They reflect the key functional linkages between places where people live
and work.

One method of classifying housing markets is to group together area with similar characteristics, e.g. house prices.
The majority of house prices in the North Kent sub-region are below the South East average although house prices
in Dartford and Gravesham are typically higher than those in Medway and Swale.

Identifying sub-markets on the basis of similar characteristics would suggest that Dartford and Gravesham would
form one sub-market and Medway and Swale another. However this does not provide a clear mechanism for
classification.

An alternative method is to using travel to work patterns (from the 2001 census) to define areas in which people
both live and work.

172,640 people both live and work in the area which represents around 66% of all those living in the area that have
a job and 81% of all those in North Kent reflecting, therefore, an area where people both live and work and the
makings of a sub-market.

However, it is important to exclude the impact of substantial housing markets which may influence local housing
patterns. 48,800 of London’s workers lived in the study area. This is particularly the case in Dartford where around
a third of all workers work in London.

To define sub-markets within the sub-region the degree of self containment and links between urban centres
(based on the relative proportion of workers travelling between the centres) has been analysed excluding those
that work in London.

Within North Kent, Dartford is the only settlement to have more than 65% self containment and meet the definition
of a housing sub-market. The other areas have been combined to form larger sub-markets.

There are three substantial sub-markets covering most of the North Kent sub-region, Dartford and Gravesend,
Medway (Gillingham/Rochester/Chatham/Rainham/Strood) and Sittingbourne. Part of the Canterbury sub-market
also encroaches into the eastern part of Swale.
Page 46
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers
4.1
This section of the report considers the local population across North Kent, concentrating in particular
on how local circumstances have changed over recent years and how they are projected to change in
future. Further information is also provided on the characteristics of local households, and how local
employment compares to that elsewhere.
National Level Household Changes
4.2
Recent figures show that the number of households in the UK has increased more rapidly than housing
supply. There are several key reasons for the increase in household numbers. According to the Office
for National Statistics (ONS), until the mid-1990s, natural change was the main driver for population
growth. However, more recent population growth has been predominantly based upon international
migration.
4.3
Figure 20 shows that there is a natural increase in the UK population. The natural population increase
between 2004/05 and 2005/06 was 170,100 people. This increase is commonly attributed to
improvements in health care, the environment and social wellbeing which reduces child mortality rates
and allows people to live for longer.
4.4
Figure 21 demonstrates that there has been fairly rapid growth in net UK migration, with particularly
high growth in 2004/05. The ONS reports that this increase was mainly due to the rise in the number of
citizens coming from the ten accession countries (A10) that joined the European Union (EU) in May
2004. The figures for 2005/06 indicate that net international migration declined, due to a combination
of lower in-migrant and higher out-migrant numbers.
Figure 20
Births and Deaths in the UK, 2001-2005 (Source: ONS, General
Register Office for Scotland, NI Statistics & Research Agency)
Figure 21
Population Change in the UK, 2001-2005 (Source: ONS, General
Register Office for Scotland, NI Statistics & Research Agency)
400
Number of Persons (Thousands)
Number of Persons (Thousands)
750
700
650
600
550
500
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06
Births
4.5
350
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06
Natural Population Change
Deaths
Net Migration
However, the recession appears to be having an impact on migration trends. According to ONS the
number of new arrivals from new EU member states was 16 per cent lower in the first half of 2008 than
Page 47
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
2007 and analysis of National Insurance number data shows that 25 per cent fewer National Insurance
numbers were issued to all foreign nationals compared to the same period during 2007.
4.6
In addition to a growing population, the size of households has been reducing over recent years, hence
housing requirements have increased. The average household size in England was 2.67 in 1981 and is
predicted to be 2.15 in 2021.
4.7
This significant reduction in household size has several possible causes. These include, young adults
moving out of the parental home, increases in relationship breakdown and divorce, people choosing to
have fewer children and many older people who outlive their partners continuing to live alone for
significantly longer than older people lived in the past.
Local Population Trends
4.8
Figure 22 shows that in 2006 the four local
authorities within the North Kent sub-region
were estimated to have a population of
567,600 people and that there were 235,000
households.
Figure 22
Persons and Households by Local Authority (Source: ONS Mid-year
Population Estimates 2006 and ONS Sub-national Population
Projections: 2006 based data)
Persons
2007
Households 2001
Dartford
89,900
38,000
Gravesham
97,400
40,000
Local Authority
4.9
Medway
251,700
104,000
North Kent is a sub-region which has seen a
Swale
128,500
53,000
steady growth in its population, as illustrated in
North Kent sub-region
567,600
235,000
Figure 23. Taking the 1981 population as a
base, it shows that the population of North
Kent sub-region rose by 8.3% in the period up to 2007, from 527,200 to 570,800 people. This compares
with a rise in population of over 9% for England and 14.7% for the South East region.
4.10
Figure 24 illustrates that the population of Medway grew steadily by 5% between 1981 and 2007. Both
Dartford and Gravesham saw a slight fall in their population until the early 1990’s, but it has been rising
since, albeit at different rates. The population of Gravesham now sits 2% higher than the 1981 base
and Dartford 11% higher. Swale’s population has risen most sharply, increasing by over 18% during the
period 1981 to 2007.
Figure 23
Population of North Kent Sub-region, South East and England: 19812007 (Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates)
Figure 24
Population by Local Authority: 1981-2007
(Source: ONS Mid-year Population Estimates)
120%
Population as Percentage of 1981
Population as Percentage of 1981
120%
115%
110%
105%
100%
95%
1981
1986
England and Wales
North Kent sub-region
1991
1996
2001
2006
115%
110%
105%
100%
95%
1981
South East
Dartford
Page 48
1986
1991
Gravesham
1996
2001
Medway
2006
Swale
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers
4.12
The age structure of the population of
North Kent from the ONS mid-year
population estimates for 2007 (Figure 25)
shows that there are proportionally
fewer older people aged 50+ years in the
area than in the South East as a whole.
North Kent also has a greater proportion
of younger persons compared with the
South East.
Figure 25
Age Profile for North Kent Compared with the South East: 2007
(Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates)
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.4%
Figure 26 shows that there is little
difference in the age profiles of any of
the authorities in the sub-region. There
are slightly higher proportions of older
persons in Gravesham and Swale
compared to the remaining authorities in
the sub-region.
-0.6%
-0.8%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
4.11
Age Group
Figure 26
Age Profile by Area (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
England and Wales
South East
North Kent sub-region
LOCAL AUTHORITY
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
0%
10%
20%
Children
30%
40%
Working age
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pensionable age or over
ONS Projections
Figure 27 shows that the rise in
population of all local authorities in
North Kent are expected to continue
in the future. Based on revised
population estimates from 2006, the
Office of National Statistics estimates
that the population of the whole of
the North Kent sub-region will rise to
665,800 by 2031.
This would
represent a 17.3% rise in the period
2006-2031.
The
population
projections also show that the
populations of Swale and Dartford
are expected to rise proportionally
much more rapidly than that of
Figure 27
ONS Population Projections by Local Authority 2004-2029 (Source: ONS Subnational Population Projections: 2006 based data)
130%
Populaiton as Percentage of 2004
4.13
125%
120%
115%
110%
105%
100%
2006
2011
Dartford
Medway
Page 49
2016
2021
2026
Gravesham
Swale
2031
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 28
Projected Change in Age Profile of North Kent 2006-2031 (Source:
ONS Sub-national Population Projections: 2006 based data)
Medway and Gravesham. Please note that
the ONS projections do not typically take
account of policy decisions about the
distribution of new housing.
4.14
16,000
14,000
12,000
The ONS projections show that the
population of North Kent is likely to
become older in the period up to 2031. In
particular, the number of people aged 60
years and above is expected to grow
considerably (Figure 28).
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
-4,000
Migration
4.15
Age Group
Data from the 2001 Census showed that of the sub-region’s 546,663 residents in households, 54,352
(9.9%) had moved within the last 12-months. Of those that had moved, 32,355 moved within North
Kent, 20,224 moved from elsewhere in the UK and 1,773 moved to the area from overseas. North Kent
lost 1,986 people to the rest of the UK in 2000-2001. A further 3,506 people resident in North Kent
were recorded as having “No usual address” 12-months before the Census.
Migration Trends
4.16
Since 1996-97, the ONS has published relatively localised migration data using information from the
NHS Central Register (NHSCR) which records the movement of individuals who change GP. This data
provides an effective way of monitoring changes in migration over time. It is important to recognise
the limitations of the data as not everyone who moves will register with a doctor, so some migration
will not be counted. Nevertheless, as the data provides the best available basis for analysis, the
following information details migration patterns for North Kent over the period 2002-2007.
Figure 29
Net Migration to North Kent by England and Wales Region 2002-2007 (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit: Movements between local
authorities in England and Wales based on patient register data and patient re-registration recorded in the NHSCR. Note: Figures may not sum due
to rounding)
UK Region
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total
North East
(80)
(80)
(40)
(20)
(110)
(330)
North West
(140)
(250)
(170)
(70)
(70)
(700)
Yorkshire and Humberside
(280)
(360)
(60)
(180)
(80)
(1,060)
East Midlands
(530)
(620)
(30)
(340)
(200)
(2,120)
West Midlands
(170)
(200)
(200)
(130)
(170)
(870)
Eastern
(470)
(530)
(380)
(340)
(300)
(2,020)
London
5,430
5,310
4,550
4180
4370
23,840
South East
(2,180)
(2,680)
(2,410)
(2,530)
(2310)
(12,110)
South West
(560)
(600)
(570)
(470)
(490)
(2,690)
Wales
(220)
(210)
(120)
(150)
(170)
(870)
800
3510
70
(50)
470
1,070
Total
Page 50
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers
4.17
Figure 29 shows the net migration to North
Kent by region of England and Wales in the past
5 years. Overall, migration accounted for a rise
in the authority’s population of 1,070 people
from 2002 to 2007 from across England and
Wales. This represents around 0.2% of the
current population of the area.
London
supplied a net 23,840 in-migrants to the subregion, whereas there was a net-loss of
population to all other regions.
4.18
Figure 31 shows the individual local authorities
which have had the highest net migration to
North Kent. Authorities in South East London
have by far the largest net migration to the
area. There was a net in-migration of 5,510
from Bexley alone, and all 10 authorities are in
London.
4.19
Figure 32 shows the local authorities to which
North Kent lost population through migration.
The neighbouring authorities of Canterbury,
Maidstone and Tonbridge and Malling were the
largest recipients of migrants from North Kent.
Therefore, other authorities in Kent form an important part of the migration pattern for North Kent.
This encourages the need to understand the housing market of North Kent in the context of the wider
housing market. The migration flow depicted in the figure can be summarised as London to North Kent
to neighbouring east and west Kent authorities.
Figure 31
Top 10 Local Authorities with the Highest Net Migration to
North Kent 2002-2007 (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit)
Local Authority
Bexley
Greenwich
Lewisham
Southwark
Bromley
Croydon
Lambeth
Newham
Tower Hamlets
Barking and Dagenham
Inmigrants
Outmigrants
Net
10,370
6,020
4,040
3,030
3,550
1,830
1,510
1,240
1,110
730
4,860
2,000
1,140
750
2,240
770
550
450
460
280
5,510
4,020
2,900
2,280
1,310
1,060
960
790
650
450
Figure 30
Net Migration to North Kent by the Government Office Regions of
England and Wales 2002-2007 (Source: ONS Migration Statistics
Unit)
Figure 32
Top 10 Local Authorities with the Highest Net Migration from
North Kent 2002-2007 (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit)
Local Authority
Canterbury
Maidstone
Tonbridge and Malling
Ashford
Thanet
Shepway
Dover
Rother
Wealden
South Holland
Page 51
Inmigrants
Outmigrants
Net
3870
5750
3570
1360
1530
940
860
200
250
100
6000
7810
5190
2500
2430
1630
1300
470
500
320
(2,130)
(2,060)
(1,620)
(1,140)
(900)
(690)
(440)
(270)
(250)
(220)
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Migration within the Sub-region
4.20
Figure 33 shows the net migration which occurred in each of the local authorities between 2002 and
2007. Therefore, as an example there was a net movement of 8,730 people from London to Medway
between 2002 and 2007.
4.21
Dartford lost population through migration to all other authorities in the sub-region but gained 7,400
people from London. Swale gained population from all other authorities in the sub-region and London,
further reflecting the movement of population south and east away from London. Despite losing
population across the sub-region Dartford gained population through overall migration within England
and Wales, while the other three authorities all lost population to other parts of England and Wales. It
is worth noting that both Medway and Dartford have high numbers of people in-migrating from
London, but for Medway it doesn't result in a positive increase in migration numbers due to the higher
proportion of people moving out of Medway to the rest of the south east. Gravesham has a slightly
higher number of people moving out than in, but interestingly is the only authority with positive
migration from the North of England.
Figure 33
Net Migration to North Kent) Sub-region Local Authorities 2002-2007 by Area (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit.
Note: Figures in brackets represent negative numbers. Figures may not sum due to rounding)
To
From
Total
Medway
Dartford
Gravesham
Swale
Medway
-
(810)
(780)
2,530
940
Dartford
810
-
930
190
1930
Gravesham
780
(930)
-
160
10
(2,530)
(190)
(160)
-
(2,880)
(940)
(1930)
(10)
2,880
-
North Kent sub-region
Swale
Sub-Total
Rest of England & Wales
Elsewhere in the South East
(6,420)
(2,470)
(2,150)
(1,070)
(12,110)
North East
(230)
(60)
20
(60)
(330)
North West
(360)
(110)
(70)
(160)
(700)
Yorkshire and Humberside
(590)
(130)
(110)
(230)
(1,060)
(2,120)
East Midlands
(1,130)
(320)
(390)
(280)
West Midlands
(360)
(150)
(200)
(160)
(870)
Eastern region
(1,050)
(450)
(540)
20
(2,020)
London
8,730
7,430
3,210
4,470
23,840
(1,300)
(380)
(460)
(550)
(2,690)
(380)
(120)
(180)
(190)
(870)
Sub-Total
(3,090)
3,240
(870)
1,790
1,070
Total
(4,030)
1,310
(880)
(4,670)
1,070
South West
Wales
Page 52
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers
4.22
Figure 34 shows this net migration between the local authorities in the sub-region between 2002 and
2007 with thicker lines representing higher levels of net migration. This shows an easterly flow of
population across the sub-region.
Figure 34
Migration between North Kent Sub-region Local Authorities 2002-2007 (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit)
Page 53
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Age of Migrant Persons
4.23
The age structure of the net migrants to North Kent is shown in Figure 35. The area has experienced a
net loss across the 16-24 and 45-64 age groups to the rest of England and Wales and gained in all other
age groups. In particular, there was a net loss of almost 2,210 adults between the ages of 16-24 years
between 2002 and 2007, representing 3% of the total population of North Kent. However, with the
development of a number of new university campuses in Medway this process is likely to reverse in the
future.
Figure 35
Migration to and from North Kent by Age Group 2002-2007 by Year (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit)
Age Group
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total
In Migrants
0-15 years
4,090
4,050
3,610
3,610
4,070
19,430
16-24 years
3,550
3,290
3,250
3,330
3,370
16,790
25-44 years
8,270
8,060
7,810
7,280
7,990
39,410
45-64 years
2,710
2,550
2,480
2,470
3,020
13,230
65+ years
1,150
1,140
1,070
1,120
1,200
5,680
19,800
19,010
18,320
17,830
19,690
94,650
0-15 years
3,750
3,760
3,680
3,470
3790
18,450
16-24 years
3,860
3,880
3,730
3,730
3800
19,000
25-44 years
7,400
7,480
7,230
6,970
7340
36,420
45-64 years
2,860
2,980
2,700
2,630
3120
14,290
65+ years
1,120
1,210
1,010
1,110
1120
5,570
19,000
19,230
18,250
17,880
19,220
93,580
0-15 years
340
290
(70)
140
280
980
16-24 years
(310)
(590)
(480)
(400)
(430)
(2,210)
25-44 years
870
580
580
310
650
2,990
45-64 years
(1,060)
Total
Out Migrants
Total
Net Migrants
(150)
(430)
(220)
(160)
(100)
65+ years
30
(70)
60
10
80
10
Total
800
(220)
70
(50)
470
1,070
Page 54
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers
Migrant Household Characteristics
4.24
No data is available on the split between wholly moving and partly moving households within the timeseries data from the ONS Migration Statistics Unit. Nevertheless, information on household migration
is presented from the 2001 Census in Figure 36.
4.25
When considering moves within the UK in the
year up to the Census, there was a net flow of
923 wholly moving households leaving North
Kent. However, there were 417 moves to
North Kent from overseas.
4.26
4.27
Figure 36
Characteristics of Wholly Moving Households within the UK –
Net Moves for Sub-Group (Source: Census 2001)
TENURE
Owns outright
Owns with mortgage
Rented from council
When considering the characteristics of
migrant households, those who own outright
are more likely to leave the area and those
who own with a mortgage are more likely to
have moved into the area in the last year.
Non-pensioner single person households are
the most likely household type to have moved
into North Kent.
Other social rented
Private rented
Living rent free
HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION
One Person - pensioner
Family - all pensioners
One Person - non-pensioner
Couple without children
Lone parent households
Couple + dep. children
4.28
The Socio-economic Classification (NS-SeC) of
household representatives shows that those in
the lower manager/professional category are
the most likely to have moved to North Kent
during the year before the 2001 Census.
4.30
Other households
NS-SeC OF HRP
Higher managerial
Higher professional
Lower manager/professional
Migration in the RSL Sector
4.29
Couple + non-dep. children
Intermediate occupations
The COntinuous REcording (CORE) system,
operated by St Andrews University on behalf of
the Homes and Communities Agency (HCA)
using HCA records, contains details on all new
lettings and re-lettings of RSL properties,
including information on the previous
postcode of all new tenants.
Self-employed
Lower supervisory & technical
Semi-routine occupations
Routine occupations
Long-term unemployed
-200
0
200 400 600 800 1000
Between April 2005 and March 2008 there were 4,604 new RSL lettings recorded within North Kent, of
which 196 (4.3%) were to households outside the local authority. The previous location of households
varied greatly although the majority of the 153 lettings to households from outside of North Kent were
within Kent or from London. For the avoidance of doubt Medway Homes Society (mhs) lettings are
included in this data, (mhs is described in chapter 6).
International Migration
4.31
Records for international migration for local authorities have recently begun being published by the
Office for National Statistics. The records are drawn from the International Passenger Survey which
interviews approximately 1 in 500 people who travel to and from the UK. Therefore, the figures for any
Page 55
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
local authority are drawn from relatively small samples. Figure 37 shows that between 2001 and 2006
a net 3,900 international migrants moved to North Kent from overseas.
Figure 37
International Migration for North Kent (Source: ONS Migration Statistics)
Local Authority
4.33
4.34
4.35
International out-migration
Net international migration
Dartford
2,700
1,200
1,500
Gravesham
3,000
1,100
1,900
Medway
4,200
3,300
900
Swale
1,100
1,500
(400)
Total
11,000
7,100
3,900
In recent years the UK has experienced a
noticeable increase in the number of migrant
workers arriving from overseas. Records of
the location of these workers are imperfect,
but one measure of where they moved to is
the number of new National Insurance
numbers issued to workers in particular
locations.
Figure 38
New National Insurance Registrations of Non-UK Nationals in North Kent
2008/09 by Country of Origin (Source: DWP)
Poland
Slovak Rep
India
Bulgaria
Romania
Rep of Lithuania
In 2008/09 a total of 5,380 new National
Insurance numbers to non-UK nationals were
issued in North Kent. This group of workers
represent around 1.0% of all people residing in
the local authority. It should be noted that
this figure relates only to employees who have
received new National Insurance numbers and
does not include any of their dependents.
Figure 38 shows that around 17% of all new
national insurance registrations in North Kent
were issued to Polish nationals, 15% to
Slovak Republic nationals and 11% to Indian
nationals. These groups together represent
around 0.4% of the total population of the
sub-region. Recent indications show that
international migration has slowed but is still
overall a net gain (ONS). This trend should
be monitored in future revisions of the
SHMA.
Nigeria
Rep of Latvia
Hungary
Czech Rep
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Figure 39
Asylum Seekers in NASS Accommodation or Receiving Subsistence Only
Support from NASS in North Kent 2003-2007 (Source: Home Office
Asylum Statistics)
300
Number of persons
4.32
International in-migration
250
200
150
100
50
A group who are not identified in the 2001
Census are asylum seekers. However, the
Home Office publishes separate asylum
seeker statistics on a quarterly basis. Since
the end of 2002 these have included figures
for the number of asylum seekers in each
0
2004
Page 56
2005
2006
2007
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
North Kent
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers
local authority who either claim support from the National Asylum Support Service (NASS) or live in
accommodation provided by NASS.
4.36
Asylum seekers are very important for housing studies such as this one. Asylum seeker populations
may become refugee populations and experience elsewhere has shown that refugee populations are
often struggle to find jobs and adequate housing.
4.37
Figure 39 shows that the number of asylum seekers who receive either accommodation or financial
support from the National Asylum Seeker Service (NASS) in North Kent as a whole is currently around
25, but has been higher than 200. In Medway, over 100 people received support from NASS in late
2003, but this has fallen sharply to practically zero from late 2005 onwards. Figures in Gravesham and
Dartford have also gradually fallen over the past few years and Swale has had no asylum seekers over
the four year period.
The Local Economy
Economic Activity
4.38
Figure 40 shows a clear link with the economic cycle. There was a long-term decline of the
unemployment rate in all local authorities in North Kent, however, the most recent figures (January
2009) show that unemployment rates have begun to rise again and now stand at around 2.5% in
Dartford and 3.5% in the remaining authorities. This is in step with the downturn in the economy.
Figure 41 shows that the proportion of claimants in North Kent is similar to that of England as a whole,
but higher than for the South East region.
Figure 40
Unemployment Rate for Working Age Population for Local
Authorities in North Kent: 1992-2009 (Source: DWP Claimant Count.
Note: Data relates to March each year)
Figure 41
Unemployment Rate for Working Age Population for North
Kent, South East and England: 1992-2009 (Source: DWP
Claimant Count. Note: Data relates to March each year)
10%
Percentage of Labour Force
Percentage of Labour Force
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
2%
1%
0%
0%
1992
1997
2002
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
1992
2007
North Kent
Page 57
1997
2002
South East
2007
England
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
4.40
The decline in unemployment claimants in the
sub-region may not entirely reflect the strength
of the local economy. Many working age
persons not in jobs are not eligible, or do not
claim, unemployment benefit.
Figure 42 shows that in North Kent the number
of working age residents claiming incapacity
benefit has risen by over 10% since 2000.
Incapacity benefit is more generous than
unemployment benefit and also places less onus
on the individual to seek a job. The growth in
incapacity benefit claimants may have prevented
a rise in unemployment rates since 2000.
Figure 42
Incapacity Benefit Claims by Working Age persons by Local
Authority 2000-2008 (Source: DWP. Note: Data relates to May of
each year)
115%
Percentage of Labour Force
4.39
110%
105%
100%
95%
90%
2000
2002
2004
North Kent
New VAT Registrations
2006
South East
2008
England
4.41
A measure of innovation and entrepreneurship is
the number of new VAT registered businesses in a year. A business must register for VAT if its turnover
exceeds £67,000 per year. It can de-register if its turnover falls below £65,000. In practice most deregistration is likely to be due to the business being acquired, merged or liquidated.
4.42
Figure 43 shows the net new VAT registrations in North Kent per annum. In total, since 1998 the
number of VAT registered businesses in the North Kent has grown by 3,960. This represents an
increase in registered businesses of around 31% since 1998 which is above the average across England
as a whole where the number of businesses has grown by 16%.
Figure 43
Net New VAT Registered Businesses in North Kent: 1998-2007 (Source: Department of Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform VAT
Registrations)
Net New VAT
Registrations
500
400
300
200
100
4.43
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
Figure 44 shows the total net new VAT registrations in each local authority in North Kent where it can
be seen that across the sub-region Medway has experienced the largest increase in VAT registered
businesses with almost 1,400 more over ten years and Gravesham the least with less than 600 new
businesses over ten years.
Page 58
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers
Figure 44
Total Net New VAT Registered Businesses by Local Authority: 1998-2007 (Source: Department of Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform VAT
Registrations)
LOCAL AUTHORITY
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
0
4.44
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
While the above analysis appears to be encouraging for the economic performance of the North Kent
economy a more detailed analysis (Figure 45) shows a worrying trend. The majority of new
registrations have either been in construction or real estate, renting or business activities’ sectors.
Given the impact of the ‘credit crunch’ and the slowdown in house building and house sales many of
these businesses are now likely to be facing difficulties.
Figure 45
Total Net New VAT Registered Businesses by Industry: 1998-2007 (Source: Department of Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform VAT
Registrations)
INDUSTRY
Agriculture; Forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying; Electricity, gas and water supply
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale, retail and repairs
Hotels and restaurants
Transport, storage and communication
Financial intermediation
Real Estate, renting and business activities
Public administration
Education; health and social work
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
4.45
Due to the recession of 2009 we would expect the number of new VAT registrations to fall and deregistrations to rise due to some businesses ceasing trading.
4.46
The 2001 Census highlights that the range of occupations of North Kent residents differs slightly from
those of the overall population of the South East region with less people employed in managerial and
professional occupations and more in administrative, skilled trades, machine operative and elementary
occupations. Therefore, residents of North Kent are disproportionately to be found in lower paying
occupations compared to the rest of the South East.
Page 59
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
4.47
When considering the industry of employment of residents, it is apparent that manufacturing and
construction are relatively important to the North Kent economy. Real estate forms a much smaller
share of employment than in the South East as a whole.
4.48
Another measure of the economic characteristics of residents in an area is the National Statistics Socioeconomic Classifications (NS-SeC). This classification was introduced by the Office for National
Statistics in 2001 to replace the traditional Social Class based on Occupation (SC) and Socio-economic
Groups (SEG) with a new system for classifying the socio-economic circumstances of individuals and
households.
4.49
The system is based on the following eight classes (Figure 46).
Figure 46
Description of NS-SeC Classes (Source: Office of National Statistics)
NS-SeC Class
Higher managerial
and professional
Description
Persons who employ others in enterprises employing 25 or more persons, and who delegate some part of
their managerial and entrepreneurial functions on to salaried staff.
Positions involving general planning and supervision of operations on behalf of the employer.
Positions covering all types of higher professional work.
Lower managerial
and professional
Positions in which those employed generally plan and supervise operations on behalf of the employer
under the direction of senior managers.
Positions which involve formal and immediate supervision of others engaged in intermediate occupations.
Positions not involving general planning or supervisory powers, in clerical, sales, service and intermediate
technical occupations.
Intermediate
Positions in this group are 'mixed' in terms of employment regulation,
i.e. are intermediate with respect to the service relationship and the labour contract.
This group normally have little authority and are bureaucratically regulated.
Small employers and
own account workers
Self-employed positions in which the persons involved have no employees other than family workers.
Lower supervisory
and technical
Positions having a modified form of 'labour contract' and involve formal and immediate supervision of
others engaged in such occupations often including a job title such as foreman or supervisor.
Semi-routine
occupations
Positions in which employees are engaged in semi-routine occupations which have a slightly modified
labour contract and have at least some need for employee discretion.
Routine
occupations
Positions where employees are engaged in routine occupations which have a basic labour contract and
little need for employee discretion.
Never worked and
long-term unemployed
4.50
Persons (other than higher or lower professionals) who carry out all or most of the entrepreneurial and
managerial functions of the enterprise but employ less than 25 employees.
Those who are over 16 years of age who have left full-time education, but have never been in paid
employment, or have been unemployed for more than a year.
Again, using this classification, the population of North Kent contains proportionally less people in
managerial and professional categories. This indicates that many employees in North Kent are in
relatively low paid occupations and therefore will be harder placed to afford market housing
(Figure47).
Page 60
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers
Figure 47
Occupation, NS-SeC and Industry of Employment for North Kent Compared to the South East Region (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
Managers & Senior Officials
Professionals
Associate Professional & Technical
Administrative & Secretarial
Skilled Trades
Personal Services
Customer Services & Sales
Plant & Machine Operatives
Elementary
Higher managerial & professionals
Lower managerial & professionals
Intermediate
Small employers & own account workers
Lower supervisory & technical
Semi-routine occupations
Routine occupations
Never worked & long-term unemployed
Not classified
Primary
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale & retail trade
Hotels & restaurants
Transport, storage & comms.
Financial intermediation
Real estate
Public administration & defence
Education
Health & social work
Other
0%
5%
10%
South East
Page 61
North Kent
15%
20%
25%
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
4.51
4.52
The strategy for the area includes job growth and housing growth. The South East Plan para. 19.3
states the objectives for sustainable regeneration and growth;

providing development that is necessary to meet the demographic, social and employment
needs of the existing and future communities of Kent Thames Gateway and its role as a growth
area;

transforming the scale and character of the economy, raising its growth rate above that of the
region as a whole and strengthening its international competitiveness; and

accommodating major new communities, and the community infrastructure required by the
sub-region.
Further, when interviewed for the SHMA, Medway Renaissance commented that the sub region is itself
a major source of employment and is largely self contained when the London factor is excluded. They
consider that knowledge, energy, creative and tourism based employment will grow significantly due to
the initiatives that are underway. They also believe that the local population will improve its skill base
in order to sustain these industries. Medway Council and Medway Renaissance are concerned that the
housing on offer is at the moment lacking for senior executives to live as well as work in the sub-region.
Incomes and Earnings
4.53
Alongside economic activity the other key component of the economy of an area is the wages earned
by workers. There are two separate ways to analyse average earnings in a local authority. One is to
examine the income of only those who are employed within the authority. The other is to examine the
earnings of the residents of the authority.
Figure 48
Median Gross Annual Earnings for Local Authorities in North Kent in 2008 for All and Full-time Employees (Source: ASHE 2007/8)
Employment Status
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
North Kent
All employees
£25,431
£22,000
£20,407
£21,565
£22,350
Full-time employees
£29,224
£29,450
£24,723
£24,952
£27,087
All employees
£24,432
£20,853
£23,084
£22,651
£22,755
Full-time employees
£29,310
£26,222
£26,445
£25,976
£26,988
Employed in North Kent
Resident in North Kent
4.54
Since 2002 the New Earnings Survey (NES) and subsequently the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
(ASHE) has recorded both measures for all local authorities. There are some concerns about the
sample sizes within ASHE at district level so, it is worth emphasising that this data is shown for
information only, in order to understand how relative incomes across the area relate to each other.
This data is not the basis of the affordability analysis which utilises data from CACI from 2008 and
evidence of income profiles from a range of ORS housing studies across England.
4.55
The results show that there is little difference between the earnings of those resident in North Kent
and those in the rest of the South East. If the local authorities are compared, the earnings of both
those employed and those resident in Dartford are slightly higher than in the rest of the sub-region. It
is also interesting that in Dartford and Gravesham, those employed in the area earn more, whereas in
Medway and Swale, those resident in the area earn slightly more.
Page 62
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers
4.56
4.57
4.58
4.59
Figure 48 compares the earnings of those in
full-time jobs with the median earnings of
employees in North Kent including those in
part-time and seasonal work. This shows
that the median employed person resident in
North Kent earns around £4,500 less than the
average full-time employee.
The evidence from Figure 49 shows that
median salaries have risen by around £8,800
(48%) for those employed in North Kent since
1999. Throughout this time, the incomes of
those employed in North Kent have on
average been below those employed in the
whole of the South East. However in 2007
average earnings for those employed in
North Kent reached and exceeded figures for
the South East.
Figure 50 shows that employed residents of
North Kent typically earn less than those
employees resident in the South East region
as a whole.
Figure 51 shows the average gross
household income levels found in North
Kent. This measure of income is more
important than individual earnings for
housing purposes because household
income gives a greater guide as to how much
a household can afford to spend on housing.
The map shows that the lowest average
household incomes in North Kent are to be
found in the east and north of the subregion, with the west and south of the subregion typically having higher incomes.
Figure 49
Median Gross Annual Earnings for Employed in North Kent and South East
Region 1999-2008 for Full-time Employees (Source: ASHE 1999-2008)
£30,000
£28,000
£26,000
£24,000
£22,000
£20,000
£18,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
North Kent
South East
England & Wales
Figure 50
Median Gross Annual Earnings for Resident in North Kent 2002-2008 for
Full-time Employees (Source: ASHE 2002-2008)
£32,000
£30,000
£28,000
£26,000
£24,000
£22,000
£20,000
2002
2003
2004
North Kent
Page 63
2005
2006
2007
South East
2008
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 51
Average Household Earnings by middle-level Super COA (Source: CACI Paycheck Data)
Page 64
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers
Skills and Education
4.60
Figure 52 shows the proportion of the population over 16 years who are educated to NVQ4 or higher
level, and those with no formal qualifications. Information on education level is based on the highest
educational qualification obtained, grouped as follows:
Figure 52
Description of Education Levels (Source: Office of National Statistics)
Education
Level
Description
Level ‘0’ /
No qualifications
No academic, vocational or professional qualifications.
1+ 'O' levels/CSE/GCSE (any grade)
Level 1
NVQ level 1
Foundation GNVQ
5+ 'O' levels
5+ CSEs (grade 1)
5+ GCSEs (grade A - C)
Level 2
School Certificate
1+ A levels/AS levels
NVQ level 2
Intermediate GNVQ or equivalents
2+ 'A' levels
4+ AS levels
Level 3
Higher School Certificate
NVQ level 3
Advanced GNVQ or equivalents
First degree
Higher Degree
NVQ levels 4 – 5
HNC
Level 4 / 5
HND
Qualified Teacher Status
Qualified Medical Doctor
Qualified Dentist
Qualified Nurse, Midwife, Health Visitor or equivalents
Other qualifications /
Level unknown
4.61
Other qualifications (e.g. City and Guilds; RSA/OCR; BTEC/Edexcel)
Other professional qualifications.
Figure 53 shows that compared with the South East region as a whole, the population of North Kent has
slightly more people with no qualifications and less people with a degree or above. Swale has the
highest proportion of those with no qualifications and Dartford has the highest proportion of those
with a degree or above.
Page 65
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 53
Qualification Levels for Local Authorities, North Kent, South East and England & Wales (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
England &
Wales
South
East
North
Kent
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
Level 0
28.9%
23.9%
30.9%
28.2%
31.4%
30.0%
34.3%
Level 1
16.6%
17.1%
20.7%
21.3%
19.8%
21.4%
19.5%
Level 2
19.4%
21.2%
21.1%
21.9%
21.1%
21.6%
19.6%
Level 3
8.3%
9.2%
6.7%
6.9%
6.6%
6.9%
6.3%
Level 4 / 5
19.9%
21.7%
12.4%
13.6%
12.5%
12.0%
12.0%
Other / unknown
6.9%
6.8%
8.2%
8.1%
8.5%
8.0%
8.2%
Education Level
4.62
Figure 54 shows that over 50% of the population of North Kent aged over 50 years possess no formal
qualifications. This compares with around 12% of the 25-34 year age category. Over 15% of everyone
aged 25-49 years has the equivalent to a degree or higher.
Figure 54
Qualification Levels for North Kent by Age (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
North Kent
16-24 years
25-34 years
35-49 years
50-74 years
0%
10%
20%
No qualifications
30%
Level 1
40%
Level 2
Page 66
50%
Level 3
60%
Level 4/5
70%
80%
Other/unknown
90%
100%
Section 4: Housing Market Drivers
Summary of Key Points
Population

Taking the 1981 population as a base, the population of North Kent rose by 8.3% in the period up to 2007 from 527,200
to 570,800. This compares with a rise in population of over 9% for the whole of England and 14.7% for the South East.
Swale’s population has risen most sharply, increasing by over 18% during the period 1981 to 2007.

The population of North Kent contains proportionally fewer people aged 50+ and a greater number of younger persons
compared to the South East. Gravesham and Swale have a slightly higher proportion of older persons than the other
authorities.

The Office of National Statistics estimates that the population of North Kent will rise to 625,300 from 2004 to 2029
(11.9%). Swale’s population is expected to grow proportionally more rapidly than the other authorities with
Gravesham’s population rising by only 2%. The population of the sub-region is also expected to get older with the
number of people over 60 growing considerably.
Migration

Data from the 2001 Census showed that of the sub-region’s 546,663 residents in households, 54,352 (9.9%) had moved
within the last 12-months. Of those that had moved, 32,355 moved within North Kent and 20,224 moved from
elsewhere in the UK. North Kent lost a net 1,986 people from across the UK in 2000-2001.

Migration accounted for a rise in the authority’s population of 1,070 people from 2002 to 2007 to the rest of England
and Wales. This represents around 0.2% of the current population of the area. London Supplied a net 23,840 inmigrants to the sub-region, whereas there was a net-loss of population to all other regions.

The top ten authorities with the highest net migration to North Kent are all in London with authorities in South East
London particularly influential, including 5,510 from Bexley alone. The neighbouring authorities of Canterbury,
Maidstone, and Tonbridge and Malling were the largest recipients of migrants from North Kent illustrating the
importance of the wide housing market of Kent to the sub-region.

Dartford lost population through migration to all other authorities in the sub-region but gained from London and across
the UK while all of the remaining authorities lost population to other parts of the UK. Swale gained population from all
other authorities in North Kent and there is a clear movement south and east away from London.

The area has experienced a net loss across the 16-24 (3% loss) and 45-64 years age groups to the rest of England and
Wales and gained in all other age groups.

When considering the characteristics of migrant households, those who own outright are more likely to leave the area
and those who own with a mortgage are more likely to have moved into the area in the last year. Non-pensioner single
person households are the most likely household type to have moved into North Kent and those in lower
manager/professional category are the most likely to have moved to North Kent during the year before the 2001
Census.

Between April 2005 and March 2008 there were 4,604 new RSL lettings recorded within North Kent including MHS
lettings, of which 196 (4.3%) were to households outside the local authority. The majority of the 153 lettings to
households from outside of North Kent were within Kent or from London.

Between 2001 and 2006, a net 3,900 international migrants moved to North Kent from overseas. In 2006/07 a total of
4,630 new National Insurance numbers to non-UK nationals were issued in the sub-region representing around 0.8% of
all people residing in the local authority. Around 28% of all new national insurance registrations in North Kent were
issued to Polish nationals, 11% to Slovak Republic nationals and 11% to Indian nationals. These groups together
represent around 0.4% of the total population of the sub-region.

There are currently around 25 asylum seekers who receive either accommodation or financial support from NASS in
North Kent, but the number has been over 200. The number of asylum seekers in Medway has fallen rapidly and fallen
gradually in Gravesham and Dartford. Swale has had no asylum seekers over the four year period.
Page 67
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
The economy

There has been a long-term decline of the unemployment rate in North Kent which is similar to that of England but
higher than for the South East. However, the most recent figures (January 2009) show that unemployment rates have
begun to rise again and now stand at around 2.5% in Dartford and 3.5% in the other three authorities. Additionally a
rise in those claiming incapacity benefits may have prevented further rises in unemployment figures.

Since 1998 the number of VAT registered businesses in the North Kent has grown by 3,960. This represents an increase
in registered businesses of around 31% which is above the average across England as a whole where the number of
businesses has grown by 16% respectively. Medway has experienced the largest increase in VAT registered businesses
(1,600) and Gravesham the least (600). The majority of new businesses have been either in construction or real estate,
however these business are now likely to face difficulties, given the impact of the ‘credit crunch’.

The 2001 Census indicates that the range of occupations of North Kent residents differs slightly from those of the overall
population of the South East region, with less people employed in higher paid managerial and professional occupations
and more in lower paid administrative, skilled trade and elementary occupations. Manufacturing and construction are
relatively important to the North Kent economy. Real estate forms a much smaller share of employment than they do in
London as a whole. The NS-SeC classification again indicates that many employees in North Kent are in relatively low
paid occupations.

Medway Renaissance have embarked on a programme of new housing and job delivery aimed at boosting the economy
of the area within the overall context of Thames Gateway regeneration.

Comparisons for median gross annual earnings for 2008 show that there is little difference between the earnings of
residents in North Kent (£22,755) and those employed in the area (£22,350) although both groups earn slightly higher
than in the rest of the sub-region. Within North Kent however, those employed in Dartford and Gravesham earn more
than those resident, whereas those resident in Medway and Swale earn slightly more than those employed.

Median salaries have risen by around £8,800 (48%) for those employed in North Kent since 1999 and for the first time in
2007 average earning’s in North Kent overtook those in the South East as a whole.

The measure of household income is more important than individual earnings for the purposes of this study as
household income gives a greater guide as to how much a household can afford to spend on housing. The lowest
average household incomes in North Kent are to be found in the east and north of the borough, with the west and south
of the borough typically having higher incomes.

Compared with the South East as a whole, the population of North Kent has slightly more people with no qualifications
and less people with a degree or above. Swale has the highest proportion of those with no qualifications and Dartford
has the highest proportion of those with a degree or above. Over 50% of the population aged over 50 years possess no
formal qualifications. This compares with around 12% of the 25-34 year age category. Over 15% of everyone aged 2549 years has the equivalent to a degree or higher.
Page 68
Section 5: Existing Dwelling Stock
5.1
The general character of dwelling stock is important in understanding the type of housing available to
residents of an area and the relationship that dwelling type, age and location has on dwelling condition.
The mix of property type available will have a bearing on home-owners’ choices in terms of
accommodation and the type of investment properties available to landlords.
5.2
The age of a dwelling will also have an effect, for example older, pre-1919, terraced houses tend to be
large in comparison to a typical modern detached house. The age of a dwelling will also tend to
determine its internal layout, the provision of amenities, its level of energy efficiency and its condition.
5.3
The following analysis examines a number of general physical characteristics of the stock before
exploring the relationship between dwelling characteristics and the condition of housing across the
sub-region.
Property Type
5.4
Figure 55 shows the mix of existing properties in North Kent in terms of property type. As illustrated,
detached properties comprise only around 17% of the stock, semi-detached properties around 32%,
terraced housing around 38% with flats accounting for the remaining 13%. It is also noteworthy that
over 2% of the stock is formed from a converted dwelling, rather than being purpose built. Compared
with South East averages, there is more terraced housing in North Kent and less detached dwellings.
Figure 55
Property Type, (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
South East
North Kent
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
0%
Detached
5.5
Semi-detached
10%
20%
Terraced
30%
40%
Purpose built flat
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Converted dwelling
If the local authorities are compared in terms of dwelling type it can be seen that Swale has a relatively
high proportion of detached properties (23%) and a relatively low proportion of flats (9%). The pattern
for Dartford is reversed.
Page 69
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Housing Tenure
5.6
5.7
Figure 56 shows the proportion of dwellings in
each of the local authorities in the South East
that were classified as social rented housing in
2008. It is apparent that the overall proportion
of social rented housing in North Kent is slightly
higher than the South East average but lower
than the English average. Gravesham has the
highest proportion of social housing in the subregion and Medway has the lowest proportion.
All mhs stock is included in the data as social
rented housing.
Figure 57 shows the overall tenure of housing
stock in North Kent, showing that owner
occupation forms a majority of the housing
stock in each borough. 79.1% of all properties
across the area are owned outright or owned
with a mortgage. Around 12.3% of the stock is
rented from social landlords with the remaining
8.6% in the private rented sector. All mhs stock
is included in the data as social rented housing.
Figure 57
Housing Tenure, Note: Owned with a Mortgage includes Shared
Ownership (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
Rent from
a HA
6.5%
Rented
from
private
landlord
8.6%
Owned
outright
24.7%
Rented
from
Council
5.8%
Owned
with a
mortgage
54.4%
Figure 56
Proportions of Social Rented Housing in South East by Local
Authority 2008 (Source: Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix,
DCLG)
England
South East
North Kent
Gravesham
Dartford
Swale
Medway UA
Crawley
Southampton UA
Slough UA
Oxford
Milton Keynes UA
Portsmouth UA
Basingstoke and Deane
Reading UA
Bracknell Forest UA
Winchester
Gosport
Rushmoor
Brighton and Hove UA
Tonbridge and Malling
Tunbridge Wells
Ashford
Chichester
Test Valley
West Berkshire UA
Dover
Windsor and Maidenhead UA
Sevenoaks
Chiltern
Runnymede
Spelthorne
Hastings
Vale of White Horse
Adur
Wycombe
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Aylesbury Vale
Mole Valley
Woking
Reigate and Banstead
Guildford
Waverley
Maidstone
East Hampshire
South Bucks
Cherwell
West Oxfordshire
Canterbury
Thanet
South Oxfordshire
Horsham
Lewes
New Forest
Tandridge
Shepway
Mid Sussex
Rother
Elmbridge
Isle of Wight UA
Arun
Surrey Heath
Epsom and Ewell
Havant
Hart
Worthing
Fareham
Wealden
Wokingham UA
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
% of Housing Stock owned by Local Authorities
% of Housing Stock owned by RSLs
Page 70
Section 5: Existing Dwelling Stock
5.8
Figure 58 shows there is little difference between the local authorities within North Kent and their
tenure distribution. However, Gravesham and Swale have a slightly higher proportion of those who
own outright and Medway has the lowest proportion of social rented dwellings. Swale also has the
highest proportion of those who rent privately.
Figure 58 Tenure by Local Authority (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
England and Wales
South East
North Kent
LOCAL AUTHORITY
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
0%
10%
20%
Owned outright
5.9
30%
40%
Owned with a mortgage
50%
60%
Social Rent
70%
80%
90%
100%
Private Rent
Figure 59 shows the difference in property type which exists between owner-occupied, private rented
and social housing in North Kent. Less than 5% of owner occupied dwellings are flats and over 20% of
owner occupied dwellings are detached while in contrast, 26% of all social housing and 27% of all
private rent dwellings are flats, with less than 10% being detached dwellings.
Figure 59 Property Type by Tenure (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
South East
North Kent
Owner Occupied
Social Rent
Private Rent
0%
10%
20%
Detached
5.10
30%
40%
Semi
50%
Terraced
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Flat
Figure 60 shows both private rented and social rented dwellings typically contain fewer rooms than
those which are owner occupied. This is partly attributable to the higher proportion of flats in these
tenures that generally contain fewer rooms than houses.
Page 71
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 60
Number of Rooms by Tenure (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
North Kent
Owner Occupied
Social Rent
Private Rent
0%
10%
20%
1 Room
30%
2 Rooms
40%
3 Rooms
50%
4 Rooms
60%
70%
5 Rooms
80%
6 Rooms
90%
7 Rooms
100%
8 Rooms
Private Rented Sector
5.11
The private rented sector has experienced an increase in importance in the housing market over
recent years. The impact of low interest rates and concerns about the rate of returns on long-term
investments and pensions led to many people investing in the buy-to-let housing market. Figure 61
shows how the number of specific buy to let mortgage advances has grown since the first quarter of
1999. It highlights the enormous growth in this form of investment and demonstrates that there is no
evidence, nationwide, of buy-to-let advances declining in the first half of 2007. However, more
recently, the number of mortgages approved has reduced for all forms of house purchase.
Figure 61
Buy to let Mortgage Advance 1999-2007 (Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders ‘Buy-to-let Mortgage Lending and the Impact on UK House Prices’,
February 2008)
20000
15000
10000
5000
2007 H1
2006 H2
2006 H1
2005 H2
2005 H1
2004 H2
2004 H1
2003 H2
2003 H1
2002 H2
2002 H1
2001 H2
2001 H1
2000 H2
2000 H1
1999 H2
0
1999 H1
Gross Buy to let Adcvances £m
25000
Date
5.12
The private rented sector is also important because of its role in housing particular household groups.
Many households who cannot afford to move into owner occupied accommodation form in the
private rented sector. It also houses young professionals who need to be mobile as well as people
who have undergone relationship breakdown.
5.13
As previously mentioned, at the time of the 2001 Census around 8.6% of the housing stock was in the
private rented sector. Evidence from national surveys such as the English House Condition Survey
shows that the private rented sector has been expanding in recent years across the whole of England.
Current evidence (CLG Housing Statistics 2008) indicates that in 2001 there were 354,000 privately
rented dwellings in the South East. By 2007 this had risen to 432,000 dwellings in the private rented
sector, a rise of 22%. This growth in the private rented sector has occurred in response to shifting
patterns of demand from the market driven by the long term decline in the affordability of owner
occupation.
Page 72
Section 5: Existing Dwelling Stock
5.14
If this rate of increase continued in 2008 we would expect the private rented sector in the South East
as a whole to be around a quarter larger than it was in 2001. Applying this to North Kent we would
expect North Kent’s private rented stock to form around 11% of all dwellings.
Social Housing
5.15
5.16
Figure 62 shows households in the social rented sector did not follow the age profile of the rest of the
population of North Kent. This shows that it is disproportionately aged 0-24 years and 65+ years when
compared to the whole population of the subFigure 62
region.
Age Profile for Social Rented Sector Compared with Whole
Population of North Kent (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
Figure 63 shows that compared to all households
in North Kent the social rent sector contains
proportionately many more lone parents and
pensioners and fewer couples with or without
children.
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
85+
75-84
65-74
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
35-44
25-34
16-24
10-15
5-9
0-4
-4.0%
Age Group
Figure 63
Household Type for Social Rented Sector (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
All Households LCB
(West)
Social Rent North
Kent
LOCAL AUTHORITY
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
0%
Single Person
5.17
10%
20%
Adult Couple
30%
40%
50%
Adult Couple With Children
60%
70%
Lone Parent
80%
90%
All Pensioners
100%
Other
Figure 63 also shows that household types in the social rented sector vary little between local
authorities although Dartford and Gravesham contain slightly more all pensioner households. Around
18% of social rented households in Gravesham are single adult households, with fewer lone parent
households.
Page 73
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
5.18
5.19
Detailed individual records of all Registered
Social Landlord (RSL) lets are available from
the Continuous Recording (CORE) system
maintained by the University of St Andrews.
All figures relate to general lets made
between April 2005 and March 2008 and
exclude those who transferred from one
socially rented property to another.
Figure 64
Age of Recent Tenants (Source: University of St Andrews CORE Records
2005-2008)
65+ years
4.0%
45-64 years
16.6%
16-19 years
11.3%
20-24 years
20.7%
The age of the new tenants (Figure 64)
shows that a third of all new tenants were
aged under 25 years and almost 60% were
aged under 35 years.
35-44 years
21.0%
25-34 years
26.4%
Houses in Multiple Occupation and Communal
Establishments
5.20
When looking at housing needs it must be remembered that not all people live in standard households.
Many households occupy houses in multiple occupation (HMOs) which include either purpose built or
converted dwellings. The following definition is taken from a CLG leaflet written for residents;

A bedsit where you share the bathroom with tenants of other bedsits;

A flat in a house whether you share the bathroom facilities with other tenants or not;

A room in a shared house where you share the bathroom and kitchen facilities with the tenants
of the other rooms but do not live with the other tenants as part of a 'household', for example
you don't cook for one another and eat together like a family would;

You are a lodger renting a room from a resident landlord (as long as there are at least 3 other
lodgers in the house);

You live in a bed and breakfast hostel; and

You live permanently in a hotel or guest house.
5.21
The Housing Act 2004 is the current legislative framework for the regulation and licensing of HMOs.
HMOs form a significant part of the private rented housing stock. The Housing Strategy Statistical
Appendix (HSSA) 2008 for the four authorities in North Kent stated that there were 4,213 HMOs in the
sub-region, 530 in Dartford, 1,733 in Gravesham, 950 in Medway and 1,000 in Swale. Many HMOs are
in the form of larger dwellings that have been converted into flats. This may have implications for
planning policy where the extent of such conversions alter the character of a neighbourhood or reduce
the supply of family housing. The policy response is beyond the scope of the SHMA but the CLG report
“Evidence Gathering – Housing in Multiple Occupation and possible planning responses Final Report”
published in 2008 provides further reading.
5.22
Not all people live in traditional household units. Figure 65 shows that 1.3% of the population of North
Kent live in communal residences, compared to around 2.4% for the entire South East region. Dartford
has a particularly high proportion of medical and care establishments (1.2%), and Swale has a relatively
high proportion of prison service establishments (1.0%).
Page 74
Section 5: Existing Dwelling Stock
Figure 65
Proportion of People in Communal Housing by Type of Establishment in North Kent (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
England and Wales
South East
North Kent
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Medical and care establishments
Prison service establishments
Hotels
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Defence
Educational establishment (including Halls of Residence)
Other
Page 75
3.0%
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Summary of Key Points
Type

Detached properties comprise only around 17% of the stock, semi-detached properties around 32%, terraced housing
around 38% with flats accounting for the remaining 13%. Around 2% of the stock is formed from a converted dwelling,
rather than being purpose built. Across the local authorities, Swale has a relatively high proportion of detached
properties and relatively low proportion of flats, whereas the pattern is reversed in Dartford.
Tenure

The proportion of social rented properties in North Kent is slightly higher than the South East average but lower than
the English average. Gravesham has the highest proportion of social housing (17%) and Medway the lowest proportion
(13%).

79.1% of all properties across the area are owned outright or owned with a mortgage. Around 12.3% of the stock is
rented from social landlords with the remaining 8.6% of the stock is in the private rented sector.

Less than 5% of owner occupied properties are flats and over 20% are detached while in contrast, 26% of all social
housing and 27% of all private rent dwellings are flats, with less than 10% being detached.

Private rented and social rented dwellings typically contain fewer rooms than those which are owner occupied, although
18% of social rented dwellings still contain six or more rooms.
The Private Rented Sector

The private rented sector has increased in importance in the housing market over recent years. The impact of low
interest rates and concerns about the rate of returns on long-term investments and pensions led to enormous growth in
buy-to–let investment. There has been an enormous growth in this type if investment and there is no evidence,
nationwide, of buy-to-let advances declining in the first half of 2007. However, more recently lending of all forms for
house purchases has declined.

The private rented sector is important because of its role in housing particular household groups. Many households
who cannot afford to move into owner occupied accommodation form in the private rented sector.

At the time of the 2001 Census around 8.6% of the housing stock was in the private rented sector. Evidence from
national surveys such as the English House Condition Survey shows that the private rented sector has been expanding in
recent years across the whole of England and CLG statistics (2008) indicate a rise from 354,000 privately rented
dwellings in the South East in 2001 to 432,000 dwellings in 2007, a 22% increase. It is estimated that the private rented
stock in 2008 will form around 11% of all dwellings in North Kent.
Social Housing

Households in the social rented sector do not follow the age profile of the rest of the population of North Kent. Social
housing has more people aged 0-24 years and 65+ years when compared to the whole population of the sub-region.
The social rented sector contains proportionately many more lone parents and pensioners and fewer couples with or
without children. Compared to the other three authorities, Gravesham contains slightly more pensioner and single adult
households and slightly fewer lone parent households.

Recent CORE data shows that a third of all new tenants were aged under 25 years and almost 60% were aged under 35
years.
Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMO)
 HSSA data for 2008 estimated that there were 4,213 HMOs in the sub-region (1,733 in Gravesham alone). The census
showed that in 2001 1.3% of the population lived in communal residences, compared to 2.4% for the whole of the South
East.
Page 76
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
6.1
This chapter draws on many sources of information and uses models that ORS has developed and
refined. It can be broken down into a number of stages which are now listed, cross referenced and
hyper linked;

The paper starts by explaining the terms housing need, demand and the future housing
requirement (from paragraph 6.2);

It breaks these definitions down into their component parts, especially unsuitability (from
paragraph 6.14), and affordability (from paragraph 6.27);

ORS modelling is used together with data from many different sources to arrive at estimates of
the future housing requirement to 2026 and its key features;
o
We build upon the projected household growth (from paragraph 6.77 to estimate the
requirement for additional social housing and then other tenures (from paragraph
6.99)
o
We apply sensitivity testing to see how price trends (from paragraph 108) affect the
requirements
o
We provide a breakdown of these requirements by tenure and size mix (from
paragraph 6.143)

We look in more detail at how intermediate affordable and low cost market housing
requirements are met (from paragraph 6.160);

We examine how housing need is expressed by households though the housing register and
homelessness applications (from paragraph 6.185); and

Finally we provide a summary of findings and observations.
The SHMA Practice Guidance
6.2
The Practice Guidance for undertaking Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs) published by
the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) in August 2007, identifies eight
Core Outputs. Numbers 4 to 7 of these outputs are relevant to this chapter;

Estimate of current number of households in housing need;

Estimate of future households requiring affordable housing;

Estimate of future households requiring market housing; and

Estimate of the size of affordable housing required.
Page 77
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
6.3
The Practice Guidance also provides specific research questions for these stages of the assessment,
which have helped structure this research paper, Figure 66 (Table 2.1, CLG SHMA Practice Guidance
2007).
Figure 66
CLG Practice Guidance Research Questions (CLG 2007)
Stage
Research Questions
Current housing need
What is the total number of households in housing need currently (gross
estimate)?
Future need
How many newly arising households are likely to be in housing need (gross
annual estimate)?
Affordable housing supply
What is the level of existing affordable housing stock?
What is the likely level of future annual supply?
Housing requirements of
households in need
What is the current requirement for affordable housing from households in
need?
What are the requirements for different sized properties?
How is the private rented sector used to accommodate need?
Bringing the evidence together
What is the total number of households in need (net annual estimate)?
What are the key issues for future policy/strategy?
How do the key messages fit with the findings from Chapters 3 and 4?
6.4
The chapter begins by looking at the change in the Index of Multiple Deprivation, it then looks at the
acute indicators of need (overcrowding and homelessness). We then estimate the proportion of
households in unsuitable housing and the nature of unsuitability by applying an ORS model to North
Kent’s profile.
Index of Multiple Deprivation
6.5
Many of the characteristics of an area can also be aggregated to generate an overall picture of the
relative wellbeing of the area. This is the Index of Multiple Deprivation and results were published in
2004 and 2007.
6.6
Figure 67 to shows relative levels of deprivation in North Kent in 2007. Areas marked in darker shades
of purple contain higher levels of relative deprivation. This shows that deprivation is relatively low in
Dartford, but concentrated in areas of Rochester, Gillingham and Chatham contain higher levels of
overall deprivation.
6.7
Across the whole of Kent 10 of the 12 local authorities have moved up the deprivation ranking since
2004. Only Dartford and Canterbury have moved down. Only four Kent districts have changed position
in the county rankings. Two of these districts have moved up the rankings, Tonbridge and Malling from
Kent rank 12th to 11th and Gravesham from Kent rank 5th to 4th. The other two districts (Sevenoaks
and Dover) have moved down the county rankings, Sevenoaks from Kent rank 11th to 12th and Dover
from Kent rank 4th to 5th. The remaining eight Kent districts has remained the same in ID 2007 as it
was in ID 2004.
Page 78
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 67
Index of Multiple Deprivation for 2007 (Source: CLG. Note: Data shown at lower-level Super COA. Higher levels of deprivation shown in darker
shading)
Page 79
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
6.9
The Index of Multiple Deprivation has a ‘housing and barriers to services’ component. This includes
distance from primary schools, shops, a GP and a post office as well as housing related problems of
affordability, overcrowding and homelessness. Figure 68 shows that under this measure, rural areas
are typically more deprived because they have greater distances to travel to access services.
Figure 68
Index of Deprivation for Housing and Barriers to Service for 2007 (Source: CLG. Note: Data shown at lower-level Super COA. Higher levels of
deprivation shown in darker shading)
Overcrowding
6.10
6.11
Figure 69 shows a total of 5.9% of households
in North Kent lived in overcrowded conditions
at the time of the 2001 Census. This is the same
as the average for the South East and it is
slightly lower than the proportion for England
and Wales. It can also be seen that Dartford has
the highest proportion (6.4%) and Swale the
lowest proportion (5.4%) of overcrowded
households in the sub-region.
Figure 69
Proportion of Households Overcrowded by Area (Source: UK
Census of Population 2001)
England and Wales
South East
North Kent
Dartford
Gravesham
The room occupancy rating reported in Figure
69 uses a complicated formula to assess
Medway
whether a household is overcrowded. This
Swale
method assumes that every household requires
at least two common rooms excluding
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
bathrooms. The number of bedrooms required
is assumed to depend on the composition of the
household, with for example the age and gender mix of any children playing a large role in deciding
how many rooms the house should have so as not to be overcrowded.
Page 80
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
6.12
Figure 70 illustrates how the proportion varies
by tenure, where it is apparent that only 3% of
owner occupied dwellings were overcrowded.
However, 13% of social rented and 14% of
private rented dwellings in North Kent were
overcrowded.
Figure 70
Proportion of Households Overcrowded by Tenure (Source: UK
Census of Population 2001)
Owned
Social Rented
6.13
Large proportions of overcrowded households
in these tenures are not unusual but represent a
significant challenge to social housing providers
and these households will typically be unable to
afford larger and more expensive housing.
Private Rented
0%
5%
10%
15%
Identifying Unsuitably Housed Households
6.14
Housing need is defined in the government
guidance PPS3 as ‘the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable
housing without financial assistance. Housing demand as ‘the quantity of housing that households are
willing and able to buy or rent. Therefore, to identify existing housing need we must first consider the
adequacy and suitability of households’ current housing circumstances.
6.15
A classification of unsuitable housing is set out below in Figure 71, taken from CLG’s SHMA Practice
Guidance Table 5.1:
Figure 71
Classification of Unsuitable Housing (Source: CLG Housing Market Assessments Practice Guidance: Version 2 August 2007)
Main Category
Homeless or with
insecure tenure
Mismatch of household
and dwelling
Dwelling amenities
and condition
Social needs
6.16
Sub-divisions
i.
Homeless households
ii.
Households with tenure under notice, real threat of notice or lease coming
to an end; housing that is too expensive for households in receipt of
housing benefit or in arrears due to expense
iii.
Overcrowded according to the ‘bedroom standard’
iv.
Too difficult to maintain (e.g. too large) even with equity release
v.
Couples, people with children and single adults over 25 sharing a kitchen,
bathroom or WC with another household
vi.
Households containing people with mobility impairment or other specific
needs living in unsuitable dwelling (e.g. accessed via steps), which cannot
be made suitable in-situ
vii.
Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and household does not have the
resources to make fit (e.g. through equity release or grants)
viii.
Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and household does not have the
resources to make fit (e.g. through equity release or grants)
ix.
Harassment from others living in the vicinity which cannot be resolved except
through a move
Most of the identified issues concern established rather than newly forming households. The nature of
unsuitability will mean that some households need to move home but others could continue to live in
the same home if appropriate changes were made. Even where a move is necessary, facilitating
households to relocate from one property to another does not necessarily imply additional homes are
Page 81
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
needed. The characteristics of the newly occupied dwellings may differ, but the overall number of
homes remains the same.
6.17
Nevertheless, to satisfy the needs of all households, it may be necessary to provide some additional
housing with particular characteristics leaving an equivalent number of dwellings (with different
characteristics) available to meet housing needs and demands from elsewhere in the market.
Assessing Established Households in Unsuitable Housing
6.18
Households are classified as being unsuitably housed if one or more of the above factors are found to
apply. However, secondary data sources do not contain sufficient information on the characteristics of
households to allow a direct measure of how many households are unsuitably housed in any given
area.
6.19
Therefore, ORS has developed a model which forecasts unsuitably housed households at Census
Output Area level. The model is based upon the evidence of 20,000 households’ interviews conducted
over the last three years in England. The model uses logit estimation to analyse cases of both
unsuitably and suitably housed households to identify characteristics in secondary data sources which
are associated with unsuitably housed households. The same secondary data sources are then used to
forecast the level of unsuitably housed in the area under consideration.
6.20
The variables which are used to predict the level of households who are unsuitably housed are;
6.21

Income – drawn from CACI paycheck;

Average house prices from Land Registry;

Relative house prices – output area average relative to borough average;

Index of Multiple Deprivation scores 2007;

DEFRA geography category – Urban, Town & Fringe, Village or Hamlet;

Overcrowding – from UK Census of Population 2001;

Household type – from UK Census of Population 2001;

Ethnic composition - from UK Census of Population 2001;

Tenure – from UK Census of Population 2001; and

Population density – persons per hectare from UK Census of Population 2001.
Figure 72 shows the modelled results for North Kent with Figure 73 showing a close up of Rochester,
Chatham and Gillingham. This shows that much of the predicted areas of unsuitable housing are
contained within the urban areas. Many of the rural areas and villages show very low levels of
predicted unsuitably housed households.
Page 82
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 72
Modelled Unsuitably Housed by Output Area (Source: ORS Unsuitably Housed Model 2009)
Page 83
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 73
Modelled Unsuitably Housed by Output Area (Source: ORS Unsuitably Housed Model)
6.22
There is little variation across the local
authorities as to the proportion of households
who are unsuitably housed. Across the whole
sub-region around 32,500 households are
unsuitably housed, which amounts to 14.6% of
all households. (Figure 74).
Figure 74
Modelled Unsuitably Housed by Local Authority (Source: ORS
Unsuitably Housed Model)
Local Authority
Percentage of
Households
Number of
Households
Local Authority
Dartford
13.3
4,700
Gravesham
14.7
5,600
Medway
14.8
14,700
Swale
15.2
7,500
North Kent
14.6
32,500
The Policy Implications of Unsuitable Housing
6.23
Not all households in unsuitable housing need to move. Their home can be repaired or adapted to
their needs. In studies involving a household survey, ORS has typically found that only a small fraction
of people in unsuitable housing both need and want to move. Accordingly, the affordable housing
Page 84
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
requirement calculated below does not specifically add this group into the calculation although in the
methodology, counting people in unsuitable housing is implicit.
6.24
Some households in unsuitable housing will have the financial capacity either to move or achieve ‘in
situ’ remedies. Other households on lower income may be awarded grants from the local authority for
adaptations. In either case there are major policy and service delivery implications especially for large
overcrowded households on low income.
6.25
Many households in unsuitable housing are older person households. Many will rely on a combination
of adaptations, ‘telecare’, low level warden support or domiciliary care to enable them to live
independently. Many will also rely on informal care and support provided by relatives, friends and
neighbours.
6.26
Some are assisted by means of care and repair schemes, voluntary sector agencies such as age concern
and from family members. Products such as shared ownership and equity release are becoming
increasingly important and acceptable mechanisms for funding solutions.
Understanding the Affordability of Local Housing
Introduction
6.27
The second factor in the assessment of housing need is the affordability of the available housing to
local people. Our aim is to estimate the minimum house price and household income threshold for
those wishing to live in market housing whether purchased or rented.
6.28
We can achieve this by looking at data concerning recent housing transactions and by using Practice
Guidance recommended income multipliers to calculate the income required to afford housing in key
price bands and tenures.
6.29
We also estimate the income level required (without subsidy from state benefits) to afford social
housing rent levels. This is important because this sets the income level of households that can only
afford social housing. All households with incomes above this level can probably afford either
intermediate affordable housing or market housing prices.
6.30
Then we aim to understand what gaps in the supply of housing exists in relation to the household
incomes.
Page 85
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Local House Price Trends
6.31
6.32
6.33
Figure 75 shows the average property
prices in North Kent for each quarter from
the first quarter of 2000 until the fourth
quarter of 2008. It should also be noted
that discounted local authority properties
bought under ‘right-to-buy’ are not
included in the statistics.
Figure 75
Average Price of Properties Sold in North Kent: Q1 2000-Q4 2008 (Source:
HM Land Registry)
£250,000
£200,000
£150,000
£100,000
During this time prices rose steeply until
the end of 2007. Prices in Dartford
£50,000
remained consistently the highest in the
£0
sub-region, while those in Medway have
2000
2002
been the lowest. Since then house prices
have reduced considerably as demand has
Dartford
been constrained by low levels of
Medway
mortgage lending. Therefore, developers
have delayed starts and even mothballed
partly developed sites to avoid oversupply damaging prices further.
2004
2006
2008
Gravesham
Swale
The range of prices observed will also be dependent upon the type of stock that is sold in any one
period, so if for example, one year sees a large number of smaller flats coming to the market, the
transaction amount would reflect this. It has to be borne in mind that at least some of these properties
at the extreme end of the scale may be in severe disrepair, and may require a significant amount of
investment to bring them up to an appropriate standard.
Page 86
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
6.34
6.35
Figure 76 illustrates how property prices have
changed in North Kent over a longer period of
time across the key price bands. In the second
quarter of 2000, around 75% of all completed
property sales were priced at less than
£100,000. Only 10% of all sales were in this
band from 2004 onwards. Conversely, the
proportion of dwellings selling for over
£200,000 has risen from less than 5% of all sales
to 30% of the total.
£100,000 is a key price band because it is
around the maximum mortgage which is likely
to be available to single first-time buyers and
for key worker groups such as teachers, nurses
and police officers. Therefore, affordability for
this group of workers has declined sharply with
the vast majority of properties in North Kent
currently being beyond the reach of most first
time buyers.
Figure 76
Percentage of Houses Sold for Less Than Key Price Bands in North
Kent Q1 2000-Q4 2008 (Source: HM Land Registry)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Under 80K
Under 150K
Under 100K
Under 200k
Figure 77
Volume of Properties Sold Annually in North Kent: Q1 2001-Q4
2008 (Source: HM Land Registry. Note: Figures show rolling annual
total based on quarterly data)
16,000
6.36
It is also necessary to understand the volume
and composition of sales, for this can tell us
more about the dynamics of the housing
market.
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
6.37
4,000
Figure 77 shows the volume of annual property
2,000
sales since 2001. It is apparent that the number
0
of completed sales peaked at over 15,000 sales
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
in late 2002 before falling slightly, dipping to
10,500 sales in 2005. By 2007, however, the
volume of sales again rose to around 15,100 sales, but fell into sharp decline in 2008 with a total of only
7,100 transactions being completed. Market commentators are divided about the point at which
recovery will commence, the duration of the recovery phase and whether prices will achieve earlier
long term trends in growth.
Page 87
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Affordability
6.38
Figure 78 shows the distribution of all property transactions in North Kent with the Land Registry for
the period January 2008 to December 2008 broken down by price band. It is apparent that there were
very few transactions for less than £100,000 with 19.9% of properties selling for less than £125,000
which is the upper limit of zero rated stamp duty transactions. 48.3% of all properties sell for between
£125,000 and £200,000.
Figure 78
Property Sale Transactions for North Kent Sub-region 2008 (HM Land Registry, All Transactions from January 2008 to December 2008)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
£500,000 or more
£475,000 - £499,999
£450,000 - £474,999
£425,000 - £449,999
£400,000 - £424,999
£375,000 - £399,999
£350,000 - £374,000
£325,000 - £349,999
£300,000 - £324,999
£275,000 - £299,999
£250,000 - £274,999
£225,000 - £249,999
£200,000 - £224,999
£175,000 - £199,999
£150,000 - £174,999
£125,000 - £149,999
£100,000 - £124,999
£75,000 - £99,999
less than £74,999
0
Transaction Amount
6.39
But how many of these homes were affordable to local households who are not already homeowners?
6.40
We can illustrate the proportion of the available stock that is affordable to households that have no
equity in Figure 79. However, we first explain the CLG rules for assessing how much a household can
spend on its housing costs.
6.41
In determining mortgage borrowing, CLG guidance from August 2007 ‘Strategic Housing Market
Assessments Practice Guidance’ states that it should be assumed that a single earner will borrow up to
3.5x his/her gross earnings, with two income households borrowing no more than 2.9x the joint
income.
6.42
Is the use of the 3.5x multiplier appropriate in our calculations? Data produced by the Council of
Mortgage Lenders (CML) Figure 79, states that income multipliers are currently around 3.2x for first
time buyers. However, this ratio has been falling as house prices have fallen. Therefore, using the 3.5x
multiple represents the upper limit for mortgages for first time buyers. We have retained this
assumption in our calculations to allow for the fact that in the current market house prices are falling
and affordability ratios are improving. The table contains other interesting information about recent
trends affecting first time buyers and these will be discussed later in the paper.
Page 88
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 79
Income Multiple for First time Buyers in the UK for the Year to September 2008 (abstract of CML table ML2 http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/statistics)
Number of loans
Age of borrower
Median Advance
£
Median Income
£
% advance
Income Multiple
October
30,000
29
117,910
35,342
90
3.36
November
28,800
29
116,437
35,000
90
3.35
December
22,600
28
117,921
35,285
90
3.38
Month
2007
2008
January
18,000
29
115,000
35,000
89
3.33
February
17,400
29
114,000
34,900
89
3.35
March
17,800
28
114,950
34,840
89
3.35
April
18,800
28
114,277
35,000
89
3.33
May
19,700
28
114,645
35,000
89
3.35
June
18,200
29
113,854
35,000
87
3.33
July
16,500
29
110,250
34,500
86
3.27
August
14,600
29
107,953
34,380
85
3.21
September
13,400
29
104,500
33,960
84
3.18
6.43
Similarly, CLG guidelines state that 25% of gross income is considered to be the maximum proportion of
income that should be spent on rent. Figure 80 and subsequent related figures are all based on the
assumption that households spend no more than 25% of their income on rents and that mortgage
advances are based on 3.5 x income.
6.44
We can estimate the income required to access properties in the private rented sector by considering
the mix of rented housing (in terms of dwelling type), the cost of purchasing rented stock and the
current 4.9% yield from buy-to-let properties (Source: FindaProperty.com Rental Index March 2009).
For the purposes of this section a 4.9% yield is assumed, however, in Chapter 7 we investigate the
impact of using a 5.5% yield.
6.45
To complete the analysis of the rented stock, we should also consider the cost of renting in the social
rented sector. Unlike market housing, rents in the social sector are determined locally in line with the
national Target Rents methodology.
6.46
On the basis of households spending no more than 25% of their gross income on housing cost,
households would require incomes of £13,300 to service the rent on a 1-bed socially rented home,
£15,800 for a 2-bed social property’ £17,700 for a 3-bed social rented dwelling and £19,800 for larger
social sector units. Households with incomes any lower than these amounts would typically qualify for
Housing Benefit support for their rent. All social rented properties should be affordable to all
households.
6.47
Figure 80 shows the required annual household income to service the cost of housing in North Kent
based on the transactions during the year from January 2008. The figure identifies the proportion of
dwellings that are affordable to households using the above affordability ratios in income bands of
£5,000. As indicated in the last paragraph, all households earning £20,000 or less are assumed to
require social rented housing. 17.9% of local housing would be affordable to this group. In this case we
would expect that this housing would almost entirely (15.2%) be in the social sector. Households with
very low income may also receive Housing Benefit.
Page 89
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
6.48
The limited supply of housing available for those households earning £20,000-29,999 and to a lesser
extent £30,000-34,999 becomes quite apparent.
Figure 80
Available Housing Stock by Required Income in North Kent 2008 (HM Land Registry, All Transactions from January 2008 to December 2008)
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Owner Occupation
Private Rent
£100,000 or more
£95,000-99,999
£90,000-94,999
£85,000-89,999
£80,000-84,999
£75,000-79,999
£70,000-74,999
£65,000-69,999
£60,000-64,999
£55,000-59,999
£50,000-54,999
£45,000-49,999
£40,000-44,999
£35,000-39,999
£30,000-34,999
£25,000-29,999
£20,000-24,999
Less than £20,000
0%
Social Rent
6.49
Only 14.6% of properties sold would be affordable to individual earners with incomes of less than
£34,999 borrowing at the maximum 3.5x ratio, assuming little or no equity. Even fewer properties
would be available to households with joint incomes of less than £34,999 as joint income is subject to a
smaller multiplier. It is not possible to estimate the proportion of households with single or joint
incomes so the calculation for individual earners should be regarded as the maximum number of
properties that could be afforded.
6.50
Only 3.0% of housing for owner-occupation and 16.5% of market rented housing is available to those
earning less than £25,000. These properties are likely to include many in a poor state of repair, or very
small in size or badly located and/or in need of considerable investment. Therefore, the income level
of £25,000 is a key finding as it defines the entry level for market housing.
6.51
Next we consider the housing that became available in the year in the context of local household
incomes to determine what proportion of transactions were affordable to households that are not
already homeowners. We have modelled local incomes to determine the income distribution of those
households without existing equity. This enables us to distinguish between households who may have
no choice but to seek affordable housing and those who can afford market housing. It is assumed that
most households with equity who intend to move have the means to access market housing whether
owned or rented. This is because equity extends the spending power of households when they are
seeking to move home.
6.52
The outcome of this modelling process has been overlaid on the distribution of available housing stock
to identify any apparent shortfalls (Figure 81).
6.53
The proportion of non-owning households of all households in each income band is given by the dotted
line which is based upon modelled household income. The model uses recent data on the distribution
Page 90
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
of income to cover the whole period 2001-2026. In using the current income profile as a proxy for the
income profile of newly forming households we are following the same assumption which has been
used historically in primary data based models. These have taken the income profile from a household
survey and projected this forward based on the current affordability profile of an area. ORS’ model is
taking the income profile of households derived from secondary data sources and projecting this
forward.
6.54
Therefore, we consider it a reasonable assumption that the income distribution of North Kent will
remain relatively stable over time. We accept that during the current recession more households may
fall into lower income bands, but in the period to 2026 it is likely that income levels will rise again.
Figure 81
Affordability of Housing Stock for Non-Owners in North Kent Based on 3.5x Mortgage Multipliers and 25% of Income if Renting (Model based on
HM Land Registry transactions from January 2008 to December 2008 and Modelled Income for Non-Owners Based on CACI Paycheck)
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Owner Occupation
Private Rent
Page 91
Social Rent
Income: Non-Owners
£100,000 and above
£95,000-99,999
£90,000-94,999
£85,000-89,999
£80,000-84,999
£75,000-79,999
£70,000-74,999
£65,000-69,999
£60,000-64,999
£55,000-59,999
£50,000-54,999
£45,000-49,999
£40,000-44,999
£35,000-39,999
£30,000-34,999
£25,000-29,999
£20,000-24,999
£15,000-19,999
£10,000-14,999
£5,000-9,999
Less than £5,000
0%
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 82
Data table for figure 81 income element -Proportion of Non owners of all Households in North Kent 2008 by income band (Based on Modelled
Income for Non-Owners)
Income Band
Proportion of non owners of all households in income
band
Cumulative %
3.04%
3.04%
6.87%
9.91%
4.42%
14.33%
2.81%
17.14%
2.00%
19.14%
1.60%
20.74%
1.16%
21.9%
1.11%
23.01%
0.68%
23.69%
0.55%
24.24%
0.37%
24.61%
0.23%
24.84%
0.27%
25.11%
0.17%
25.28%
0.11%
25.39%
0.09%
25.48%
0.12%
25.6%
0.07%
25.67%
0.07%
25.74%
0.06%
25.8%
0.24%
26.04%
Less than £5,000
£5,000-9,999
£10,000-14,999
£15,000-19,999
£20,000-24,999
£25,000-29,999
£30,000-34,999
£35,000-39,999
£40,000-44,999
£45,000-49,999
£50,000-54,999
£55,000-59,999
£60,000-64,999
£65,000-69,999
£70,000-74,999
£75,000-79,999
£80,000-84,999
£85,000-89,999
£90,000-94,999
£95,000-99,999
£100,000 and above
6.55
Figure 82 demonstrates that the proportion of housing affordable to households earning less than
£20,000 is broadly consistent with the proportion of existing households in this category. The model
implies that there is sufficient housing available to those with incomes of £20,000-24,999. However,
there is a considerable shortfall of dwellings for home ownership affordable to people in this income
band.
6.56
However, there is only just sufficient housing to buy available and affordable to those earning £25,00029,999 with much of the housing available to this group being in the private rented sector.
6.57
The proportion of households who have incomes of up to £25,000 and who do not currently have
equity in their own home accounts for 19.14% of all households in the area (Figure 82), whereas only
2.2% of dwellings in the area would be affordable for purchase by this group and 3.9% would be
affordable to this group through renting in the private sector (Figure 82). Of course, the existing social
rented stock (15.2%) is also affordable to this group. Adding the available social rented, market rented
and market housing for sale totals 21.4% of the overall stock.
6.58
Therefore, there is currently more housing affordable to households with incomes below £25,000 (who
do not have equity) than the number of such households currently resident in North Kent. For the
purposes of modelling it is assumed that most households will seek housing that is affordable to them
in other local authority areas as evidenced by the extent of migration within the sub-region (above) but
it is acknowledged that this is not always the case. They may choose to stay put or move to an
alternative tenure even if it is not ‘affordable’ within CLG benchmarks.
Page 92
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Key Findings
6.59
6.60
On the basis of the above analysis it is reasonable to assume that, for the basis of our modelling, the
North Kent sub-region on average has the following characteristics;

£20,000 p.a. is the point below which households can only afford as social rent;

Households earning up to £25,000 p.a. can only afford social or intermediate affordable
housing (collectively termed affordable housing); and

Households earning upward of £25,000 p.a. should be able to afford local market housing
whether for owner occupation or for rent.
Of course, the circumstances of individual households may differ from these benchmark levels and the
SHMA takes account of this by sensitivity testing results against house prices, rental yields (Figure 106
onward). There is also discussion on the role of intermediate affordable housing in the conclusion.
Medway Homes Society - mhs
6.61
Rochester was one of the first areas of the country to transfer its social housing stock to an outside
body. The stock was transferred to mhs in 1990. The terms of the transfer were different to those
which would be in place if the transfer was to occur now and mhs has much more flexibility on the
rents they are able to charge than a registered social landlord. Therefore, it could be argued that the
stock owned by mhs is not social housing in the traditional sense.
6.62
However, an analysis of the recent lets by mhs indicates that 75% of their properties are affordable to
households with incomes of £20,000 and over 95% are affordable to households with incomes of
£25,000. Therefore, the majority of properties owned by mhs can still be considered as affordable
housing as they are let at rates which are within the upper limit for social housing rents upon which
SHMA modelling is based.
6.63
If we were to classify a proportion of mhs tenants as not being in social housing we would reduce the
supply of social housing. However, we would also reduce the requirement for social housing by an
equal amount giving no net impact on the model. Therefore, we have chosen to keep all of the mhs
stock as part of the current supply and need for social housing.
6.64
The status of mhs as an independent housing society also means that it differs from an RSL in certain
aspects of regulation and public policy such as its approach to ensuring its stock achieves the standard
of decency.
Further considerations and implications regarding affordability
6.65
Current income is not the only factor in determining housing tenure options. Savings and gifts or loans
from parents can help to contribute to housing costs, while debts such as student loans will limit the
ability of the households to afford payments.
6.66
The outputs of the model above only relate to existing households in North Kent sub-region.
Therefore, the need for social rented dwellings may be higher than from the model due to lower
income households being unable to form due to lack of suitable social rented housing. Therefore, if
more social rented housing were to be provided there are likely to be households who would come
forward to fill these properties. Some of the existing social rented housing will be let to households
Page 93
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
with incomes that are higher than £20,000 per annum. This may be due to shortages of intermediate
housing. There will also be households in acute housing need that require social housing even if their
income slightly exceeds minimum market thresholds e.g. large families in overcrowded housing.
6.67
The model tells us that households with incomes of £20,000 or over could have the option of moving
into intermediate affordable housing were it to be built. This could avoid them being part of the social
housing requirement. Evidence from CORE for RSL lettings in 2005-2008 indicates that around 7.6% of
all general lettings were to households earning £20,000 or more with 2.4% going to households with
incomes of over £30,000. Therefore, a significant number of households who potentially can afford
intermediate housing are accessing social housing tenancies.
6.68
Social Housing tends to be let to households in housing need and who have limited options to secure
more suitable housing in the market. Therefore, it is possible for letting to be made to households
earning more than £20,000 p.a. Also some social tenants will see their income grow beyond this point
over time. It is not possible and arguably, not desirable to force higher earning tenants to move from
their home in order for households that are less well off to be offered the property. Given the
continuing number of new households that are likely to be dependent on social rented housing, it will
be necessary to provide additional social housing for these households.
6.69
Therefore, alongside the need for additional social rented housing there is also a clear need for
additional intermediate affordable housing across the sub-region. The amount of intermediate housing
and its distribution varies across the sub-region and is sensitive to the change in house prices. These
issues are developed later in the report. Similarly we examine the mismatch between the current stock
and the future requirements in more detail later in this paper.
How Affordability Changes if Households Borrow More Money.
6.70
We have established that there are limited housing options for households within incomes of £20,00024,999. The following analysis explores what happens if mortgage advances are more than 3.5 times
income. In practice, until late 2008, households have been borrowing and spending higher amounts on
housing costs to help bridge the gap.
6.71
The following chart, Figure 83, is based on the same data as Figure 81 but allowing borrowing at rates
of up to 4.5x income. Whilst these assumptions may be extreme across the population as a whole, the
figure helps to demonstrate the lack of options faced by households in certain income brackets.
Page 94
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 83
Affordability of Housing Stock for Non-owners in North Kent based on 4.5x mortgage multipliers and 25% of income if renting. (Model based on
HM Land Registry transactions from January 2008 to December 2008 and Modelled Income for Non-Owners based on CACI Paycheck)
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Owner Occupation
Private Rent
Social Rent
£100,000 and above
£95,000-99,999
£90,000-94,999
£85,000-89,999
£80,000-84,999
£75,000-79,999
£70,000-74,999
£65,000-69,999
£60,000-64,999
£55,000-59,999
£50,000-54,999
£45,000-49,999
£40,000-44,999
£35,000-39,999
£30,000-34,999
£25,000-29,999
£20,000-24,999
£15,000-19,999
£10,000-14,999
£5,000-9,999
Less than £5,000
0%
Income: Non-Owners
What is the present position?
6.72
Whilst households have been able to borrow at these higher levels over recent years, lenders have
changed their lending practices reducing drastically the number of mortgages granted. Even if
households are prepared in principle to borrow higher amounts to bridge the affordability gap lenders
are no longer willing to lend at these levels.
6.73
We are now in a position that current house prices at or near their long term trend. However in
practice, many of those households with little or no deposit may not even be able to secure advances
of 3.5x income, so even the original analysis may actually understate the current problem.
6.74
According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, as at November 2008, twice the volume of sales were to
home movers who had some element of equity compared to those without equity. It is interesting to
note that the average loan to this group was 68% of the purchase price at a 2.71 ratio of purchase price
to household income. A year earlier these figures were 72% and 3.02. In comparison, in 2007, first
time buyers were being granted an average loan of 90% of purchase price (Figure 79).
6.75
As we will see from the modelling, relatively few households can afford to purchase market housing. It
is crucial to study the number of households at around the market threshold in order to inform the
balance of the requirement between intermediate market housing and market housing and these
households are mainly those who are not already home owners.
Page 95
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Estimating the Overall Future Requirement for Housing and the
Requirement for Social Rented Housing
Preface
6.76
As previously noted this SHMA for the North Kent Sub-region was commissioned by Gravesham and
Medway Councils. Dartford Council has completed a separate SHMA for the Borough and has asked
that estimates of housing requirements are not published. This is because a different method of
estimating housing requirements has been used. This North Kent SHMA has estimated housing
requirements for the whole sub region using the method outlined below and has also estimated results
of each District or Borough. Borough level results for Dartford and Swale have been removed from this
version of the report. Our aim is to produce outputs for Gravesham and Medway Councils in the
context outputs for of the sub-region.
Introduction
6.77
In this section we estimate the overall housing requirement to 2026 using Kent County Council
household trend based population (2007) and household (2008) projections and an analysis of
projected trends in tenure. Note that we have used 2001 Census data as a baseline for our housing mix
model, as do the County Council projections, as this is the most robust position to the baseline tenure
split in North Kent. Once trends are established we look at the social housing requirement as part of
the overall housing requirement using a trend based method based upon household projections. This
leaves a residual housing requirement (overall requirement less social housing requirement). We use
analysis based upon the income thresholds established in the previous section to estimate the
proportion of intermediate affordable housing and market housing that make up the residual
requirement. This is a trend and demographic based approach that is fundamentally different method
to that adopted by housing need surveys which report the number of households that require social
housing irrespective of the capacity of existing and planned new build housing.
6.78
Once trends are established from a 2001 base, outputs from the model are to 2026 in line with the SE
Plan 2006-26. Note that SHMA outputs start from 2008 so that local authorities can focus on the
residual SE Plan target for 2008-26 i.e. 50,100 dwellings (see Figure 97 below), as delivery of new build
housing between 2001 and 2008 is taken into account. Any housing need which has arisen in the
period 2001-2008 is also taken into account by the model.
6.79
This leaves the backlog of need which existed in 2001. The South East Plan Panel Report
http://www.gose.gov.uk/gose/planning/regionalPlanning/ThePanelReport/?a=42496 notes that the
SEERA housing requirements already have regard to the backlog of need. Therefore, the backlog of
need does not need to be explicitly included in the model because it is already factored into the
dwelling target. As a side note, recent household survey based data collected by ORS has shown the
backlog of housing need to be around 3% of households for surveys conducted outside London.
However, much of this need will have arisen since 2001 as the affordability of housing has declined
sharply since this time.
Estimating the future housing tenure mix
6.80
This section uses the local authority level Kent County Council strategy based household projections
(Figure 84 and Figure 85) as the starting point for estimating the future housing tenure mix which will
be required in North Kent. We estimate results to 2026 to coincide with the South East Plan.
Page 96
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
6.81
Over the 20 year period 2006-2026, the Kent County Council estimate for household growth is that
there is likely to be an additional 54,900 households living within the study area and has broken this
projection down into likely household types;
Figure 84
Household Projections to 2026 by Household Type: Cumulative Totals (Source: Census 2001; Kent County Council Strategy Based Household
Projections 2008)
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2001
Married couple
2006
Cohabiting couple
2011
Lone parent
2016
Other multi-person
2021
2026
Single person
Figure 85
Household Projections to 2026 by Household Type (Source: Census 2001; Kent County Council Strategy Based Household Projections 2008)
Married
couple
6.82
Cohabiting
couple
Lone
parent
2001
107,729
22,121
20,736
Other
multiperson
11,643
2006
109,400
27,700
18,000
2011
107,200
32,600
18,600
2016
106,000
36,300
2021
105,800
2026
106,000
Single
person
Total
60,111
224,370
12,100
67,800
235,000
12,800
76,900
248,100
18,900
13,400
86,900
261,500
39,200
19,000
14,100
96,500
276,160
41,900
19,600
14,400
106,000
289,926
Figure 86 through to Figure 88 show that household types will change at different rates between 2006
and 2026. There will be a decline in the number of married couples whereas single persons and cohabiting couples show the largest proportionate increases.
Page 97
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 86
Figure 87
Household Projections to 2026 by Household Type: Totals by Type
Household Projections to 2026 by Household Type: Absolute Change in
(Source: Kent County Council Strategy Based Household Projections 2008) Totals by Type (Source: Kent County Council Strategy Based Household
Projections 2008)
120,000
70,000
60,000
100,000
50,000
80,000
40,000
30,000
60,000
20,000
40,000
10,000
20,000
0
-10,000
0
2006
2011
2016
Married couple
Cohabiting couple
Lone parent
Other multi-person
Single person
2021
2006
2026
2011
2016
2021
2026
Figure 88
Household Projections to 2026 by Household Type: % Change in Totals
by Type (Source: Kent County Council Strategy Based Household
Projections 2008)
+60.0%
+50.0%
+40.0%
+30.0%
+20.0%
+10.0%
+0.0%
-10.0%
2006
6.83
2011
2016
2021
2026
Figure 89 shows the tenure occupied by different household groups at the time of the 2001 Census.
This shows that lone parents were disproportionately likely to be found in social housing while married
couples were concentrated in the owner occupied sector. Note that shared ownership is not included
separately here as it was less than 0.5% of the housing stock at the time of the census.
Page 98
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 89
Housing Tenure Mix by Household Type (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
All Households
HOUSEHOLD GROUP
Married couple
Cohabiting couple
Lone parent
Other multi-person
Single person
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Own
50%
Private rent
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Social rent
6.84
It is clear that the tenure mix differs quite markedly for each household type, so as the proportion of
households of each type changes in line with the earlier projections, this will influence the mix of
tenure required.
6.85
Figure 90 shows the numbers of households for each tenure by household type at the time of the 2001
Census. This is the baseline for our assessment of requirements.
Figure 90
Number of Households by Housing Tenure and Household Type (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
Married couple
Cohabiting couple
Lone parent
Other multi-person
Single person
0
20,000
40,000
Own
6.86
Private rent
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Social rent
When the requirements of each household type are combined, the overall tenure mix can be
summarised as follows (Figure 91).
Page 99
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 91
Household Projections to 2026 by Housing Tenure (Source: Kent County Council Strategy Based Household Projections 2008)
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
0
50,000
100,000
Own
150,000
200,000
Private rent
250,000
300,000
350,000
Social rent
Key Finding
6.87
In Figure 92 we show a tabulation of the data behind. This is a key table and our final assessment of
the requirement for both social housing and other tenures is based upon it.
Figure 92
Change in Household Numbers 2001-2026 by Tenure (Source: Census 2001 and Kent County Council Strategy Based Population Projections 2007)
Year
Total
Households
2001
222,340
2006
235,290
2011
2016
Increase in all
households
Increase in social
rent
Own
Private rent
Social rent
165,289
23,158
33,893
12,950
169,935
30,231
35,124
1,231
248,240
12,950
174,581
35,850
37,809
2,685
261,190
12,950
179,227
41,507
40,457
2,648
2021
274,140
12,950
183,872
47,274
42,994
2,537
2026
287,090
12,950
188,518
52,987
45,584
2,590
Increase:
64,750
Increase:
11,700
6.88
The increasing volume of households suggest that, using a trend based projection, there will be a
requirement for the social rented stock to increase by 11,700 units in the period 2001 to 2026. That is
an increase from 33,900 dwellings to 45,600 dwellings over the 25 years using rounded figures.
6.89
This is in the context of an overall increase of 64,750 households, suggesting that social rented housing
accounts for 18.1% of the additional provision required for the period 2001-2026. Figure 93 to 95
describe these tenure projections further.
Page 100
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 93
Change in Household Numbers 2001-2026 by Tenure: Relative Change
(Source: Kent County Council Population Projections, Trend based 2007)
200,000
Figure 94
Change in Household Numbers 2001-2026 by Tenure: Absolute
Change (Source: Kent County Council Population Projections, Trend
based 2007)
35,000
180,000
30,000
160,000
25,000
140,000
120,000
20,000
100,000
80,000
15,000
60,000
10,000
40,000
5,000
20,000
0
0
2001
2006
2011
Own
Private rent
Social rent
2016
2021
2026
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Figure 95
Change in Household Numbers 2001-2026 by Tenure: % Change
(Source: Kent County Council Population Projections, Trend based
2007)
+140.0%
+120.0%
+100.0%
+80.0%
+60.0%
+40.0%
+20.0%
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Further Analysis
6.90
However, to refine this estimate into a social housing requirement, losses due to the right to buy and
gains due to new building need to be taken into account. These factors are now estimated and lead to
a conclusion about the social housing requirement by local authority and housing market (Figure 96).
6.91
Having established the quantity of social housing that is required, further analysis is needed to estimate
the size mix of the social housing requirement and this is undertaken later in the paper (Figure 122
below).
6.92
Over 1,100 properties have transferred from social rent to owner occupation over the 5-year period
from 2002/3. Nevertheless, the recent change in legislation, coupled with increasing house prices in
the area, has led to far lower sales in recent years. Figure 96 details the number of Right-to-Buy sales
across the study area since 2002/03.
Page 101
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 96
Right-to-Buy/Right to Acquire Sales for North Kent sub-region 2002/03 to 2007/08 by Local Authority (Source: CLG and Housing Corporation)
Year
Local Authority
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
Total
Number of Sales
Dartford
108
122
41
38
21
18
348
Gravesham
123
149
63
30
34
34
433
Medway
59
53
20
20
16
12
180
Swale
66
42
25
6
7
0
146
Total
356
366
149
94
78
64
1,107
6.93
In projecting forward future likely purchases through Right-to-Buy, we have assumed an average rate
based on sales over the most recent three years of published data given the apparent change at this
time. A longer period is not appropriate due to changes in the Right to Buy scheme. Post 2004 levels
are significantly different as the right to buy discount was reduced. Also in 2005 further changes were
made which meant owners who applied to buy after 18th January 2005 and decided to resell within 10
years of completing a Right to Buy purchase, had to offer the property back to the Council or a
nominated RSL at market value, although the Council/RSL is not obliged to buy the property back.
6.94
Figure 97 summarises the impact of housing delivery since 2001 and the Right-to-Buy and other
changes to the dwelling stock. Note that the loss of social housing through the Right-to-Buy translates
into a gain for other tenures. 2001 is the baseline for our model. In arriving at estimates of Right-toBuy sales for 2008-26 we based this on information from the 3 years from 2005/6.
6.95
Figure 97 shows that the requirement for social rented dwellings is 12,800 to 2026 which represents
25.5% of the total number of dwellings to be delivered.
Figure 97
Estimating the Requirement for Social Rented Housing 2008-2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding, () indicates a surplus)
Housing Type
Social Rent
Other Tenures
Overall Total
As at April 2001
33,900
188,400
222,300
Required by 2026
45,600
241,500
287,100
Net change 2001-26
11,700
53,100
64,800
Dwelling Stock
Less Changes in Stock 2001-08
Dwelling delivery 2001-08
1,800
12,800
14,600
Right to Buy etc sales 2001-08
(1,400)
1,400
-
Residual requirement 2008-26
11,300
38,800
50,100
Right to Buy etc 2008-26
(1,500)
1,500
-
Adjusted Requirement 2008-26
12,800
37,300
50,100
Less Projected Changes in Stock
6.96
It is possible to consider the social housing requirement at borough/district level (Figure 98). This
information derives from the household projections (Figure 92), broken down by Local Authority.
Page 102
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 98
Overall Housing Requirement and Requirement for Social Rented Housing by LA 2001-2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Housing Type
Local Authority
Total
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
Total Requirement 2001-26
19,100
10,600
20,400
14,600
64,800
Requirement: demographic change 2001-26
3,200
2,400
3,500
2,800
11,700
Housing Requirement
Social Rent
6.97
If we apply adjustments for Right-to-Buy, the Right to Acquire and new build housing completions at
the local authority level we can arrive at the overall requirement for additional housing 2008-2026 for
social housing and other tenures (Figure 99).
Figure 99
Overall Housing Requirement and Requirement for Social Rented Housing and Other Tenures by LA 2008 -2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to
rounding)
Housing Type
Local Authority
Total
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
Total Requirement
2001-26
19,100
10,600
20,400
14,600
64,800
LESS Actual dwelling delivery
2001-08
3,700
1,800
4,600
4,600
14,600
Residual Requirement
2008-26
15,400
8,800
15,800
10,000
50,100
Housing Requirement
0
Social Rent
Requirement: demographic change
2001-26
3,200
2,400
3,500
2,800
11,900
PLUS Actual/projected losses (RTB etc)
2001-26
900
1,100
500
400
2,900
LESS Actual dwelling delivery
2001-08
400
300
700
300
1,800
3,700
3,200
3,300
2,700
12,900
Residual Social Rent Requirement
2008-2026
Other Tenures
0
Requirement: demographic change
2001-26
15,900
8,200
16,900
11,800
38,200
LESS Actual/projected gains (RTB etc)
2001-26
(900)
(1,100)
(500)
(400)
(2,900)
LESS Actual dwelling delivery
2001-08
3,300
1,400
3,900
4,300
12,800
Residual Requirement for Other Tenures
2008-2026
11,800
5,700
12,500
7,200
37,200
23.9%
35.6%
20.9%
27.4%
25.4%
Residual Social Rent as % of Residual
Requirement
6.98
It is apparent that Gravesham has the highest proportionate requirement for additional social rented
housing (36%) with Medway having a smaller proportion of 21%. The higher requirement for social
rent in Gravesham is not due to demographic changes in the borough but due to past and projected
Right-to-Buy sales which the model assumes needs to be replaced. The model identifies that 1,100
units of social rent will need to be delivered between 2001 and 2026 to replace those sold under Right
to Buy which equates to nearly 10% of the total build programme. It is also the case that only around
20% of housing delivery has been social housing in Gravesham and this is lower than in any other
authority in the sub-region.
Page 103
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Estimating the Future Requirement for Intermediate Affordable and
Market Housing (The Other Tenures)
Introduction
6.99
In the previous section we estimated the overall requirement for additional housing to 2026 based
upon household projections. We estimated the social housing requirement and subtracted it from the
overall requirement to 2026 in order to arrive at the residual requirement for additional housing for
other tenures by 2026.
6.100
Our aim in this section is to understand how demographic trends and changes in affordability affect the
housing requirement to 2026 of other tenures (intermediate and market housing). We also aim to
understand how the requirement for other tenures changes if prices for market housing increases or
decreases.
6.101
Please note that throughout the modelling section numbers have been rounded to the nearest 100.
The aim of the rounding is to ease the reader’s comprehension of the results and also to highlight that
the model is an estimate of future housing requirements, rather than a precise calculation of exact
figures. A consequence of the rounding of numbers is that the components may not sum to the total.
It should be remembered that throughout the modelling section the total housing requirement for
each local authority sums to its RSS housing allocation 2006-2026
Analysis
6.102
Our starting point is to consider if the proportion of owner occupying households will change in the
period to 2026.
6.103
The earlier household projection (Figure 92) suggests that the proportion of owners will reduce from
74.3% to 65.7% (=188,500/287,100) of all households. However, if in future households are less able to
afford the costs of purchasing their home, then this proportion could be much lower. In Figure 100
affordability outputs from the model are applied to the net change in households from the household
projections. Note that as we are focussing here on the change in home ownership we have combined
social rented and private rented categories together that appeared in Figure 92. Note also that we are
considering all households here not just those without equity.
Page 104
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 100
Change in Home Ownership 2001-2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Housing Type
Owned
Rented
Overall Total
Households
As at April 2001
165,300
57,100
222,400
Required by 2026
188,500
98,600
287,100
Net change 2001-21 based on demographic modelling
23,200
41,500
64,700
Proportion of pensioner households
(as at 2001)
70.4%
29.6%
100.0%
Estimated household dissolution following death 2001-2026 (A)
40,300
17,000
57,300
Proportion of all households able to afford home ownership
(as at 2008)
52.1%
47.9%
100.0%
New household formation 2001-2026 (B)
63,500
58,500
122,000
Net change 2001-21 based on affordability modelling (B-A)
23,200
41,500
64,700
188,500
98,600
287,100
65.7%
34.3%
100.0%
Projected Impact of Death
Projected Impact of New Households
Projected Households
Projected by 2026 based on affordability modelling
% of households
6.104
We have arrived at the proportion of households able to afford home ownership from our model.
Figure 101, shows that 52.1% of all households have income in excess of £25,000 per annum which is
the minimum household income needed for home ownership.
Figure 101
Number of households able to afford home ownership at 2008 (Model based on HM Land Registry transactions from January 2008 to December
2008 and Modelled Income for Non-Owners based on CACI Paycheck)
16%
14%
52.1%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Owner Occupation
Social Rent
Income: All Households
Private Rent
Income: Non-Owners
Page 105
£100,000 and above
£95,000-99,999
£90,000-94,999
£85,000-89,999
£80,000-84,999
£75,000-79,999
£70,000-74,999
£65,000-69,999
£60,000-64,999
£55,000-59,999
£50,000-54,999
£45,000-49,999
£40,000-44,999
£35,000-39,999
£30,000-34,999
£25,000-29,999
£20,000-24,999
£15,000-19,999
£10,000-14,999
£5,000-9,999
Less than £5,000
0%
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
6.105
The following data table (Figure 102) shows the proportion of households in each income band at 2008:
Figure 102
Household Income Distribution for All Households and Non-owners (Source: Modelled Household Income Data for North Kent based on CACI
Paycheck)
Income Band
All Households
%
Non-owners
Cumulative %
%
Cumulative %
Up to £5,000
5.0%
5.0%
11.7%
11.7%
£5,000-9,999
13.8%
18.8%
26.4%
38.1%
£10,000-14,999
11.2%
30.0%
17.0%
55.1%
£15,000-19,999
9.2%
39.2%
10.8%
65.9%
£20,000-24,999
8.8%
48.0%
7.7%
73.6%
£25,000-29,999
7.9%
55.9%
6.1%
79.7%
£30,000-34,999
6.7%
62.6%
4.5%
84.3%
£35,000-39,999
6.3%
68.9%
4.3%
88.5%
£40,000-44,999
5.0%
73.9%
2.6%
91.1%
£45,000-49,999
4.2%
78.1%
2.1%
93.2%
£50,000-54,999
3.4%
81.5%
1.4%
94.6%
£55,000-59,999
2.6%
84.1%
0.9%
95.5%
£60,000-64,999
2.4%
86.5%
1.0%
96.5%
£65,000-69,999
1.9%
88.4%
0.7%
97.2%
£70,000-74,999
1.7%
90.1%
0.4%
97.6%
£75,000-79,999
1.5%
91.6%
0.3%
97.9%
£80,000-84,999
1.3%
92.9%
0.4%
98.3%
£85,000-89,999
1.0%
93.9%
0.3%
98.6%
£90,000-94,999
0.9%
94.8%
0.3%
98.9%
£95,000-99,999
0.7%
95.5%
0.2%
99.1%
£100,000 and above
4.5%
100%
0.9%
100.0%
6.106
Assuming that the relationship between housing costs and household income remains constant, the
affordability modelling suggests that the proportion of households who are homeowners will fall to
65.7% by 2026 (Figure 100). That is 165,300 owning households at 2001 plus 23,200 owning
household’s growth in the affordability projection total (188,500), divided by 287,100 being the total
number of households at 2026.
6.107
The balance between market and intermediate affordable housing is therefore likely to change by
2026.
6.108
From our affordability model we estimate that by 2026, 25.2% of all households would have incomes of
less than £25,000 with no equity available from existing property, which equates to 62,500 households
across the sub-region. Figure 103 illustrates this, (in the figure, A minus B equals 72,500):
Page 106
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 103
Number and proportion of households unable to afford market housing at 2026
Housing Type
Number
Percent
188,500
65.7%
Households at 2026
Owned
Rented
98,600
34.3%
All Households (A)
287,100
100.0%
Income of Non-owners
Above market threshold
26,200
9.1%
£20,000 up to market threshold
7,500
2.6%
Up to £20,000
65,000
22.6%
All Non-Owners
98,600
34.3%
Able to afford Market Housing
Current owners
188,900
65.7%
Non-owners with income above market threshold
26,200
9.1%
Sub-total (B)
215,100
74.8%
Total Unable to Afford Market Housing
72,500
25.2%
6.109
We estimate the number of market dwellings affordable to this group as follows. Referring again to
Figure 101 and Figure 102, bands up to the £25K contain only 10.7% of the private housing stock.
6.110
Returning to household projections, Figure 92, the total projected number households in 2026 is
287,100. The projected number of households in social rented housing at 2026 is 45,600 therefore the
residual market requirement is the difference = 241,500. If we multiply this by 10.7% we arrive at the
number of dwellings affordable to the group with incomes below the £25,000 threshold, 10.7% x
241,500 = 25,874. This is rounded to 25,900.
6.111
So there would be 25,900 dwellings in the private sector affordable to households without equity on
the assumption that the relationship between housing costs and income remains constant. If we add
the 1,150 intermediate affordable homes built across the sub-region over the period 2001-08 and the
estimated social rented stock this will provide a total stock of 67,700 dwellings affordable to those with
incomes below £25,000. (25,900+1,150+45,600=72,600 rounded).
Key Finding: the intermediate affordable and market housing requirement 2008 to 2026
6.112
Given an overall total of 72,500 households with incomes of less than £25,000 an overall stock of
72,600 dwellings affordable to this group, there is an implied surplus of 100 intermediate affordable
housing units.
6.113
The overall housing tenure mix required for the sub-region based on affordability at 2008 average price
levels can therefore be summarised as in Figure 104 below.
Page 107
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 104
Overall Housing Requirement 2008-2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Requirement 2008-2026
Housing Type
Market Housing
Number of Units
%
37,400
74.6%
Intermediate Affordable Housing
-
-
Social Rented Housing
12,700
25.4%
Overall Housing Requirement
50,100
100.0%
6.114
This is an extreme conclusion. The result shows that based upon 2008 prices, the existing stock of
intermediate housing is large enough to satisfy the majority of the identified requirement. The future
requirement for both social rented housing and market housing cannot be satisfied by the existing
stock, hence the identified requirement for additional provision.
6.115
We have arrived at different estimates of the housing requirement to 2026 using different assumptions
about future price trends however the estimate based upon 2008 prices is explored further first.
6.116
However, the results for the individual local authorities are summarised below in Figure 105 and lead to
an explanation of the apparent lack of a requirement for intermediate affordable housing. These
figures show that Dartford, Gravesham and Swale all have a requirement for intermediate housing, but
that none is required in Medway. The explanation of this position is that the entry level price of
housing in Medway is below that of the other areas and that therefore affordability pressures are lower
in the borough. When viewed from a sub-regional perspective, households who cannot afford market
housing in Dartford, Gravesham or Swale may be able to do so in Medway because of its relatively large
stock of relatively cheap housing. However, when viewed from the perspective of each individual
authority there is a lack of intermediate housing in Dartford, Gravesham and Swale due to higher prices
leading to a shortage of relatively affordable owner occupied or private rent housing.
Figure 105
Housing Requirement by LA 2008-2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Local Authority
Housing Type
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
11,000
5,100
12,500
6,500
800
600
0
700
House Prices at 2008 levels
Market housing
Intermediate affordable housing
Social rented housing
3,700
3,200
3,300
2,700
Total Housing Requirement
15,500
8,900
15,800
10,000
65.4%
Market housing
70.9%
57.1%
79.1%
Intermediate affordable housing
.2%5
7.3%
0.0%
7.3%
Social rented housing
23.9%
35.6%
20.9%
27.4%
Further analysis: how the balance between intermediate affordable and market housing changes with
house price change: House Price Scenarios
6.117
The scenario set out above is at 2008 house prices. House prices in 2008 fell considerably from their
peak in 2007. If house prices remain at or below their current levels for the remainder of the period
until 2026 then the lack of a clear requirement for intermediate housing will remain. However, if prices
rise, then the potential requirement for intermediate housing may increase. In this section we test the
market and intermediate affordable housing requirement against price change and arrive at a second
scenario of housing requirements based upon higher than regional average prices (Figure 106).
Page 108
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
6.118
The most up to date evidence from mortgage lenders suggests prices on average have reached the
bottom of the cycle and are starting to rise. However, the ‘average’ position must be qualified. Savills
produce quarterly bulletins on the housing market recovery. They demonstrate that some market
segments are recovering faster than others and that mortgage availability is still a factor slowing mass
market recovery. It is high price premium property that is leading the recovery for the time being.
6.119
As house prices grow, fewer dwellings in the private sector will become affordable to households
without equity and with incomes below £25,000, so the need for intermediate affordable housing will
increase. Furthermore, higher house prices will lead to fewer households being able to afford market
housing, so the requirement for additional market housing will decrease.
Figure 106
Scenario Testing of Overall Housing Requirement 2008-2026 for House Price Changes (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Requirement 2008-2026
Housing Type
Market
Housing
Intermediate
Housing
Social Rented
Housing
Total
House prices at 2008 levels
Number of units required
37,400
-
12.700
50,100
Proportion of total requirement
74.6%
0%
25.4%
100.0%
32,300
5,100
12.700
50,100
64.4
10.3%
25.4%
100.0%
House prices rise by 5%
Number of units required
Proportion of total requirement
House prices rise by 10%
Number of units required
29,100
8,300
12.700
50,100
Proportion of total requirement
58.1%
16.5%
25.4%
100.0%
6.120
It should be noted that this is not an annual rise of 5%, but rather simply that prices are set at 5% above
their current level. Therefore, if the current average selling price of dwellings is £100,000 a 5% rise
would see this rise to £105,000.
6.121
It is clear that the level of intermediate affordable housing requirement is sensitive to changes in house
prices. If house prices rise to 5% above their 2008 level, the need for intermediate housing rises to
around 10% of the overall requirement. This could be due to existing stock selling for at higher prices,
or due to the impact of new build housing increasing the average selling price of properties. If house
prices were to rise by 10% there would be a requirement for additional intermediate affordable
housing in the sub-region equal to 17% of the total planned provision.
6.122
It has been agreed that the housing requirements most likely to materialise will be the second scenario
at the 5% level. This is because of the good progress being made with regeneration and economic
development. The combined effects of the University expansion, town centres regeneration, and the
high speed rail link to London from Ebbsfleet is likely to increase demand for local housing and
therefore have an impact on local prices. It must be recalled that house prices are relatively low in
many parts of North Kent so price increases above the regional average rate of increase is considered
plausible and likely.
Rental Yield Changes
6.123
To this point the model has used the most recently available evidence on rental yields (Figure 107)
which indicate that 4.9% is a typical yield in the South East of England. This implies that on a property
with a value of £100,000 a landlord could expect to receive a rental income of £4,900 per annum, or
approximately £400 per month.
Page 109
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
6.124
However, compared to rental yields which have been achieved in recent years, 4.9% is a low rate of
return on a property. Rental yields have been as high as 6% in the South East which would see the rent
on a £100,000 property being £500 per month. Therefore, we have considered the impact of potential
future changes to rental yields in the future.
Figure 107
Scenario Testing of Overall Housing Requirement 2008-2026 for Rental Yields (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Requirement 2008-2026
Housing Type
Market
Housing
Intermediate
Housing
Social Rented
Housing
Total
Rental yield at 2008 levels (4.9%)
Number of units required
37,400
-
12.700
50,100
Proportion of total requirement
74.6%
0%
25.4%
100.0%
Rental yield at 5.5%
Number of units required
29,800
7,600
12,700
50,100
Proportion of total requirement
59.5%
15.2%
25.4%
100.0%
Number of units required
26,400
11,000
12,700
50,100
Proportion of total requirement
52.6%
22.0%
25.4%
100.0%
Rental yield at 6%
6.125
It is clear that the level of intermediate affordable housing requirement is sensitive to changes in rental
yields. If rental yields averages 5.5% for until 2026, the need for intermediate housing rises to around
15% of the overall requirement. If yields were to average 6.0% there would be a requirement for
additional intermediate affordable housing in the sub-region equal to 22-23% of the total planned
provision.
6.126
The charts above indicate how sensitive the results for the sub-region are to relatively small changes in
house prices or rents. Figure 108 shows the impact of the same changes on each of the boroughs. For
Medway, any increase in house prices would begin to create a small intermediate housing requirement,
while with an increase in rental yields to 5.5% a much larger intermediate housing requirement
appears. The results for Swale are also striking with the same changes to house prices or rental yields
creating significant changes in the intermediate housing requirement.
Page 110
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 108
Sensitivity Testing of Housing Requirement by LA 2008-2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Local Authority
Housing Type
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
70.9%
57.1%
79.1%
65.4%
Scenario 1: House Prices and Rental Yields at 2008
levels
Market housing
Intermediate affordable housing
5.2%
7.3%
0.0%
7.3%
Social rented housing
23.9%
35.6%
20.9%
27.4%
Market housing
65.2%
51.2%
78.2%
54.8%
Intermediate affordable housing
10.8%
13.2%
0.9%
17.8%
Social rented housing
23.9%
35.6%
20.9%
27.4%
Scenario 2: House Prices Rise by 5%, Rental Yield
Remain Constant
Scenario 3: House Prices Remain at 2008 levels, Rental
Yield grow to 5.5%
Market housing
64.1%
47.1%
70.7%
47.1%
Intermediate affordable housing
11.9%
17.3%
8.4%
25.5%
Social rented housing
23.9%
35.6%
20.9%
27.4%
Scenario 4: House Prices rise by +5% and Rental Yields
at 5.5%
6.127
Market housing
61.6%
43.4%
60.3%
40.3%
Intermediate affordable housing
14.4%
21.0%
18.9%
32.3%
Social rented housing
23.9%
35.6%
20.9%
27.4%
It is noteworthy that the social housing requirement is constant in all of the scenarios. This is because
our assessment of the social housing requirement is based upon an analysis of the estimated change in
the number of households belonging to groups that are mostly housed in social housing. The
requirement for social housing is largely unaffected by market price changes as;

target rent formula results in long term changes in values being reflected rather than the short
term fluctuations of the market;

the vast majority of current tenants and households who are likely to become tenants have
neither the income or financial standing to realistically access market housing at any level; and

market prices would have to fall to target rent levels to have any impact on the social housing
requirement.
6.128
The methodology uses the affordability of market housing (price and household earnings data) to
estimate the balance between market housing and intermediate affordable housing as households in
this group are assessed as being able to afford it.
6.129
Note that client Local Authorities have agreed that they need not all use the same set of outputs in
Figure 108 as they believe their local economic circumstances and trajectories differ.
6.130
Gravesham Borough Council assumes Scenario 1 is the most appropriate for Gravesham, with prices
and rental yields held at 2008 levels. Their rationale is that whilst it is reasonable to assume that
houses prices may rise, it is also reasonable to assume that the regionally important economic effect of
the Ebbsfleet proposal will increase local wage levels in combination with local up-skilling. Arguably it
Page 111
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
is too early and difficult to determine the complex outcome of these processes given it is the
differential between price and income that is important for housing affordability.
6.131
Medway Council believes that the scenario 4 is the most plausible scenario given its economic
development trajectory, with its new dwelling delivery being focused in its more expensive locations
which will directly see house prices rise in the borough.
6.132
Each Council will monitor to situation to determine if and when assumptions and scenarios need to
change.
6.133
Local Authorities will have regard to the SHMA housing requirement outputs on the scenario they
consider to be most appropriate. Whilst the outputs of all 4 scenarios are summarised in charts on
page 114, the data tables stating the estimated number of units required in each tenure for scenarios 1
and 4 only, for the period 2008-26 and annually, are as follows;
Page 112
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 109
Scenario 1: Total Housing Requirement by LA 2008-2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Housing Type
Local Authority
Market housing
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
10,964
5,059
12,501
6,534
Intermediate housing
798
647
0
726
Social rented housing
3,702
3,158
3,302
2,737
Totals
15,464
8,864
15,803
9,997
Figure 110
Scenario 1: Annual Housing Requirement by LA 2008-2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Housing Type
Local Authority
Market housing
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
609
281
695
363
Intermediate housing
44
36
0
40
Social rented housing
206
175
183
152
Totals
859
492
878
555
Figure 111
Scenario 4: Total Housing Requirement by LA 2008-2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Housing Type
Local Authority
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
Market housing
9,528
3,844
9,522
4,026
Intermediate housing
2,234
1,862
2,979
3,233
Social rented housing
3,702
3,158
3,302
2,737
Totals
15,464
8,864
15,803
9,996
Figure 112
Scenario 4: Annual Housing Requirement by LA 2008-2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Housing Type
Local Authority
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
Market housing
29
214
529
224
Intermediate housing
124
103
166
180
Social rented housing
206
175
183
152
Totals
359
492
878
555
Page 113
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Graphical summary Housing Requirements Estimated by the 4 Scenarios
Figure 113
Total Housing Requirement by LA 2008-2026 – all scenarios
Gravesham
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 1
6.134
43%
47%
51%
57%
21%
Medway
36%
Scenario 4
36%
Scenario 3
13%
36%
Scenario 2
78%
1%
7%
36%
Scenario 1
79%
0%
17%
60%
71%
19%
21%
8% 21%
The sensitivity of the intermediate housing requirement is readily apparent. More intermediate
housing is required as market prices increase.
Delivery of new build housing and the credit crunch
6.135
The impact of the credit crunch on the delivery of housing growth was discussed with Medway
Renaissance. Officials stated that delivery was ahead of target and as new housing was in demand
because of its low cost relative to London and other parts of the South East, they felt there was little
risk that the growth would not be delivered. They added that planning consent had just been sought
for two small developments for executive housing that signalled returning confidence to the market
and filled an important gap. Given the scale of regeneration in the area they were confident that areas
of cheaper housing would see uplift in prices and an improved social mix over time.
Estimating the future balance between market housing for sale and rent
6.136
Note that Figure 108 refers to market housing which includes private rented housing and owner
occupied housing. It is very difficult to predict how the proportions will change in the period between
2008 and 2026. The private rented sector is understood to have grown rapidly in the period between
year 2001 and 2008. This is due to the growing volume of buy to let mortgages granted in the period
and other evidence found in the Rugg Report (The Private Rented Sector: its contribution and potential
2008, University of York). An accurate number will not be available until the 2011 census results are
available.
6.137
The balance between owning and renting market housing will inevitably depend on a range of factors.
6.138
Ignoring the credit crunch, the drivers for the private rented sector can be considered in terms of
supply and demand.
6.139
Demand is likely to be robust especially from younger households. Even allowing for some downward
adjustment in purchase prices, it is unlikely that the affordability gaps described above will be met from
an adequate supply of affordable housing. Other cost of living factors such as increasing energy and
fuel will also present a barrier to aspiring home owners on lower incomes.
6.140
Change of supply will be more volatile depending upon returns for investors compared to other
investments. This will also be dependent on a wide range of fiscal and economic factors.
Page 114
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
6.141
If the credit crunch is considered we see both the fall in house prices and credit restrictions
constraining demand for home ownership but overall no reduction in demand for housing per se.
6.142
On the supply side it is unlikely that Landlords will sell existing stock unless absolutely forced to. Even if
no new investment occurs for the time being it is hard to see that the size of the sector will diminish. If
the cost of borrowing becomes low and prices are cheap, landlords with cash may be inclined to seize
the opportunity to invest further.
The Mix of Future Housing Requirements
6.143
Having understood the size of the future housing requirement we can now provide estimates of the
mix of housing size, related to the future household typologies likely to exist in 2026. We have
produced the fully working of the answer for the period up to 2026.
The Size Mix of additional housing by 2026
6.144
Figure 114 shows the size of properties occupied by different household groups at the time of the 2001
Census.
6.145
The Census asked households to record the number of rooms in their home excluding bathrooms
toilets, landing staircase and cupboards. The following is taken from the Census 2001 technical notes:
The Census and occupancy
A one-person household is assumed to require three rooms (two common rooms and a bedroom).
Where there are two or more residents it is assumed that they require a minimum of two common rooms plus one
bedroom for:
i.
Each couple (as determined by the relationship question)
ii.
Each lone parent
iii. Any other person aged 16 or over
iv. Each pair aged 10 to 15 of the same sex
v.
Each pair formed from a remaining child aged 10 to 15 with a child aged under 10 of the same sex
vi. Each pair of children aged under 10 remaining
vii. Each remaining person (either aged 10 to 15 or under 10)
6.146
Figure 114 shows that single person households were disproportionately likely to be found in smaller
housing. Almost 30% had three rooms or fewer, and a further 25% occupied dwellings with four
rooms. However, it is also worth noting that over 45% occupied housing with 5 rooms or more.
Couples tended to occupy larger properties and lone parents tended to occupy smaller properties, the
differences between these groups are less marked than for single person households.
Page 115
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 114
Housing Size Mix by Household Type (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
All Households
HOUSEHOLD GROUP
Single person
Lone parent
Other multi-person
Couple
0%
1-3 Rooms
6.147
10%
4 Rooms
20%
30%
40%
5 Rooms
50%
60%
6 Rooms
70%
7 Rooms
80%
90%
100%
8+ Rooms
Figure 115 shows the numbers of households in each property size broken down by household type as
at the time of the 2001 Census.
Figure 115
Number of Households by Housing Size and Household Type (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
Couple
Lone parent
Other multi-person
Single person
0
1-3 Rooms
6.148
20,000
4 Rooms
40,000
60,000
5 Rooms
80,000
6 Rooms
100,000
7 Rooms
120,000
140,000
8+ Rooms
Using the household projections in Figure 85 we can arrive at an estimate of the size mix to 2026. We
apply the proportions of each household group as at the census to the household projections constant.
Figure 116 illustrates the projected change in implied size mix. The change in the overall size mix can
be summarised as follows.
Page 116
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 116
Change in the Housing Size Mix as at 2001 compared to Projected Housing Size Mix 2026
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
2001
40,000
30,000
2026
20,000
10,000
0
1-3 Rooms
6.149
4 Rooms
5 Rooms
6 Rooms
7 Rooms
8+ Rooms
The net change in the overall size mix is a key study finding.
Figure 117
Net Change in Required Housing Size Mix 2001-2026
+20,000
+18,000
+16,000
+14,000
+12,000
+10,000
+8,000
+6,000
+4,000
+2,000
+0
1-3 Rooms
6.150
4 Rooms
5 Rooms
6 Rooms
7 Rooms
8+ Rooms
When we consider this mix proportionately, across the whole of the sub-region the size-mix
requirement for additional housing can be summarised as being a quarter (19.2%) as having 1-3 rooms,
a further quarter (20.3%) with four rooms, 28.7% with 5 rooms, 20.3% with 6 rooms and 6.3% for 7
room 5.2% for 8+ room properties.
Figure 118
Net Change in Required Housing Size Mix 2001-2026
7 Rooms
6%
8+ Rooms
5%
1-3 Rooms
19%
6 Rooms
20%
4 Rooms
21%
5 Rooms
29%
Page 117
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Relating room requirements to bedroom requirements
6.151
Of course, when considering dwelling mix it is often the case that the number of bedrooms is
considered in preference to the overall number of rooms in a property, despite data sources such as
the Census and Survey of English Housing typically reporting on the total number of rooms.
6.152
The following chart (Figure 119) summarises the relationship between property size and number of
bedrooms from the household interviews completed by ORS for Housing Requirements Studies across
England, which provides a reasonable mechanism for translating between the number of rooms and
the number of bedrooms in a property.
Figure 119
Number of Bedrooms by Number of Rooms and Tenure (Source: ORS Household Surveys)
SOCIAL RENT
1-3 Rooms
4 Rooms
5 Rooms
6 Rooms
7 Rooms
8+ Rooms
OTHER TENURES
1-3 Rooms
4 Rooms
5 Rooms
6 Rooms
7 Rooms
8+ Rooms
0%
10%
1 Bedroom
20%
2 Bedrooms
30%
40%
3 Bedrooms
50%
60%
4 Bedrooms
70%
80%
90%
100%
5+ Bedrooms
6.153
Using the above survey information regarding household and tenure distribution, it is possible to
consider the additional housing requirement in terms of the number of bedrooms required. This is
achieved by adding together all of the dwellings with a given number of bedrooms irrespective of how
many rooms are present overall.
6.154
Figure 120 and Figure 121 show the net requirement for social rented housing and for housing required
across other tenures;

70% of future requirements for social rented housing is for smaller homes (1 and 2 Bedroom);
and

65% of future requirements for other tenures is for larger (3+ bedroom) homes.
Page 118
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 120
Net Change in Required Housing Size Mix by Number of Bedrooms:
Social Rent
4
Bedrooms
3.4%
3
Bedrooms
27.0%
Figure 121
Net Change in Required Housing Size Mix by Number of Bedrooms:
Other Tenures
5+
Bedrooms
0.7%
4
Bedrooms
10.6%
5+
Bedrooms
1.7%
1 Bedroom
10.3%
1 Bedroom
41.5%
2
Bedrooms
26.5%
3
Bedrooms
50.9%
2
Bedrooms
27.4%
6.155
We find that the 1 bedroom social rented requirement is primarily underwritten by the needs of older
persons. The housing mix model uses the CLG bedroom standard to allocate dwellings to households
within the social rented housing requirement. However, ‘real world’ factors such as older people
expressing a preference for an extra bedroom to accommodate a visitor or a carer means that the
requirement for 2 bedroom social rented dwellings may be understated and the 1 bedroom
requirement may be overstated by the model.
6.156
Issues regarding the interpretation of model outputs (size and tenure mix) when considering policy are
expanded upon in section 8 of the SHMA report.
Page 119
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Size mix and preferred scenarios
6.157
As is previously noted regarding Figure 108, Medway Council believes that scenario 4 is the most
plausible scenario given its economic development trajectory. Gravesham believes that scenario 1 is
more appropriate. Accordingly size mix estimates are provided below for each scenario.
Scenario 1: Size Mix Requirement by Local Authority and Housing Sub-market (Long Term Trend Prices and
4.9% rental yield)
6.158
The size mix for each of the districts is detailed below.
Figure 122
Size Mix of Housing Requirement to 2026 by LA (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Local Authority
Housing Type
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
Market Housing
1 bedroom
1,150
500
1,450
550
2 bedrooms
3,050
1,450
3,300
1,700
3 bedrooms
5,650
2,700
6,35
3,150
4 bedrooms
1,250
600
1,200
650
5+ bedrooms
200
100
150
100
11,000
5,100
12,500
6,500
1 bedroom
150
150
-
100
2 bedrooms
200
150
-
150
3 bedrooms
300
250
-
200
4 bedrooms
50
50
-
50
Sub-total
Intermediate Affordable Housing
5+ bedrooms
Sub-total
-
-
-
-
800
600
0
700
Social Rented Housing
1 bedroom
1,450
1,350
1,550
1,200
2 bedrooms
1,100
850
900
800
3 bedrooms
1,150
900
800
750
4 bedrooms
150
100
100
100
5+ bedrooms
50
-
-
-
Sub-total
3,700
3,200
3,300
2,700
1 bedroom
2,750
1,950
3,000
1,850
2 bedrooms
4,350
2,450
4,250
2,650
3 bedrooms
7,050
3850
7,150
4,100
4 bedrooms
1,450
750
1,300
800
5+ bedrooms
250
150
200
150
15,500
8,900
15,800
10,000
All Housing
Total
Scenario 4: Size Mix Requirement by Local Authority and Housing Sub-market (5.5% yield and +5% house
prices)
6.159
While the results so far have concentrated on scenario 1, Medway’s preferred position is Scenario 4.
The size mix by tenure for each of the districts under scenario 4 is detailed below.
Page 120
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Figure 123
Size Mix of Housing Requirement to 2026 by LA (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Local Authority
Housing Type
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
Market Housing
1 bedroom
850
250
850
300
2 bedrooms
2,500
1,000
2,550
1,100
3 bedrooms
4,800
1,950
5,050
1,950
4 bedrooms
1,100
500
950
500
5+ bedrooms
200
100
150
100
9,500
3,800
9,500
4,000
1 bedroom
450
350
750
600
2 bedrooms
600
550
750
950
3 bedrooms
950
850
1,200
1,450
4 bedrooms
150
150
200
200
Sub-total
Intermediate Affordable Housing
5+ bedrooms
50
50
50
50
Sub-total
2,200
1,900
3,000
3,200
Social Rented Housing
1 bedroom
1,450
1,350
1,550
1,200
2 bedrooms
1,100
850
900
800
3 bedrooms
1,150
900
800
750
4 bedrooms
150
100
100
100
5+ bedrooms
50
-
-
-
Sub-total
3,700
3,200
3,300
2,700
1 bedroom
2,750
1,950
3,000
1,850
2 bedrooms
4,350
2,450
4,250
2,650
3 bedrooms
7,050
3850
7,150
4,100
4 bedrooms
1,450
750
1,300
800
5+ bedrooms
250
150
200
150
15,500
8,900
15,800
10,000
All Housing
Total
Page 121
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Shared Ownership Recent Sales
6.160
The SHMA model works to an assumption that households with incomes of between £20,000 and
£25,000 and without existing equity will seek intermediate housing in the sub-region.
6.161
CORE records indicate that only 35% of sales have been made to households with incomes of less than
£25,000, while over 20% of households had gross incomes of £35,000 plus. Almost 75% of the recent
sales of shared ownership dwellings in North Kent have gone to people aged less than 35 years.
6.162
There is likely to be demand for shared ownership based intermediate affordable housing products
from households able to afford market rented housing. The SHMA model is based upon affordability
rather than preference considerations. Following the definitions set out in PPS3, the model places
households who can afford private rent, but not owner occupation within the private rented sector
rather than intermediate housing. However, many households would prefer shared ownership as a
long-term alternative to private renting. Households who have been purchasing shared ownership with
incomes of over £25,000 per annum are likely to be able to afford to rent privately, but have chosen
not to do so. This highlights that more households will choose to take up intermediate housing
products if they are made available than the model based purely on affordability considerations implies
will be the case.
Figure 124
Age for Shared Ownership Sales 2005-2008 for North Kent (Source:
University of St Andrews CORE Records)
40+ years
18.4%
Figure 125
Gross Household Income for Shared Ownership Sales 2005-2008 for
North Kent (Source: University of St Andrews CORE Records)
£40,000+
10.4%
18-24 years
29.4%
Less than
£20,000
13.7%
£35,00039,999
10.0%
35-39 years
7.3%
£20,00024,999
21.4%
£30,00034,999
17.1%
30-34 years
16.5%
25-29 years
28.4%
£25,00029,999
27.4%
Income Growth over Time
6.163
Given that many of the existing shared ownership dwellings in North Kent are let to people in the 22-39
years age range it is interesting to explore the income profile of this group. Figure 126 shows median
and mean earnings for different age groups across the UK. This age group split is only available for the
whole of the UK and therefore there is no direct evidence for how income varies across age groups in
North Kent. However, it is noteworthy that median earnings for full time employees across the UK are
around £21,000 which is about 9% less than that for North Kent residents. Therefore, it has been
assumed that variations in income in North Kent will be similar to those across the whole of the UK,
except that they will be 9% higher at each point.
Page 122
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
6.164
Figure 126 shows that across the UK, the median earnings for those aged 30-39 years is £5,200 higher
than for those aged 22-29 years. Therefore, this would represent a gain of approximately £520 per
year. Income peaks for the 30-39 years age group, before declining among older workers.
Figure 126
Median Earnings of Employees in UK in 2007 for Full-time Workers by Age Group (Source: ASHE 2008)
All employees
18-21 years
22-29 years
30-39 years
40-49 years
50-59 years
60+ years
£0
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£30,000
6.165
ASHE contains information not only on median income, but also in each decile of income. Therefore, it
includes information at a UK wide level on how large an income is required to be in each decile. This is
shown in Figure 127 below.
6.166
As an example Figure 127 shows that 50% of all full-time employees aged 22-29 years earn more than
£18,700 per annum. Similarly, 50% of those aged 30-39 years earn more than £23,900.
Figure 127
Percentile Earnings of Employees and Residents for UK in 2008 for Full-time Workers by Age Group (Source: ASHE 2008)
£60,000
£50,000
£40,000
£30,000
£20,000
£10,000
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Percentiles
22-29 years
30-39 years
40-49 years
6.167
The levels at which the deciles occur allow us to forecast how many people are likely to be in particular
income bands in particular age groups in North Kent.
6.168
At the time of the 2001 Census there were 51,018 people aged 22-29 years living in North Kent. Of this
group 64% were employed full-time which represents 32,660 employees. This number is likely to have
grown since this time, but it represents a useful benchmark to start the calculations.
Page 123
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
6.169
ASHE data indicates that 50% of full-time employees aged 22-29 years in the UK earn more than
£18,700. Applying this result to North Kent with a 9% upward adjustment implies that 16,330 full-time
employees aged 22-29 years earn more than £20,400. Given this is spread over an eight year age group
this would imply that approximately 2,000 new individuals in the 22-29 years age band achieve this
level of income for the first time each year. Similarly, 1,600 employees achieve an income of over
£23,200, 1,200 employees an income of over £26,300, 800 employees an income of over £29,900 and
400 employees an income of over £35,900 each year (Figure 128).
Figure 128
Income Profile for those Aged 22-29 in North Kent (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and ASHE 2008)
Residents of North Kent
New each year
51,018
6,400
64%
-
Number of full-time employed
32,660
4,100
Earning above £20,400 (50%)
16,330
2,000
Earning above £23,200 (40%)
13,064
1,600
Earning above £26,300 (30%)
9,758
1,200
Earning above £29,900 (20%)
6,532
800
Earning above £35,900 (10%)
3,266
400
Number aged 22-29 during 2001 Census
% employed full-time
6.170
Figure 129 shows the same calculation for those aged 30-39 years. At the time of the 2001 Census
there were 88,980 people aged 30-39 years living in North Kent. Of this group 60% were employed fulltime which represents 53,277 employees. ASHE data indicates that 50% of full-time employees aged
30-99 years in the UK earn more than £23,900 per annum. Applying this result to North Kent with a 9%
uplift implies that 26,640 full-time employees aged 30-39 years earn more than £26,000 per annum.
Given this is spread over a ten year age group this would imply that approximately 2,700 new
individuals in the 30-39 years age band achieve this level of income for the first time each year.
Figure 129
Income Profile for those Aged 30-39 in North Kent (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and ASHE 2008)
Residents of North Kent
New each year
88,980
8,900
Number aged 30-39 during 2001 Census
% employed full-time
6.171
60%
-
Number of full-time employed
53,277
5,300
Earning above £26,000 (50%)
26,639
2,700
Earning above £30,100 (40%)
21,311
2100
Earning above £34,700 (30%)
15,983
1,600
Earning above £40,600 (20%)
10,655
1,100
Earning above £51,600 (10%)
5,328
500
These calculations are very approximate, but do indicate that a significant number of people in the 2229 years age band could potentially afford to access a housing product with a starting threshold of
around £20,000. It is also the case that these results refer only to individuals living in North Kent.
Therefore, there are likely to be even more households who could afford this threshold when joint
incomes and demand from those who currently live outside of North Kent is included. These results
help to indicate how many households can potentially afford to access affordable home ownership
products in North Kent.
Page 124
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
6.172
The results also show that a typical individual’s income grows considerably between the ages of 22 and
39. Therefore, someone who buys into an affordable home ownership product in their twenties may
well be able to progress and staircase to full home ownership in their thirties.
Housing Benefit
6.173
Figure 130 shows that around 76% of all new
tenants in North Kent had no earnings from
employment. This group includes those who
are of pensionable age. Many of the new
lettings are to households which are entirely
benefit dependent. However, 8% of new
lettings were to households with net take-home
earnings from work of over £300 per week. This
is equivalent to an income of around £20,000
per annum.
Figure 130
Weekly Take-home Earnings of Recent Tenants (Source: University
of St Andrews CORE Records 2005-2008)
£200299.99
6.6%
£300399.99
4.4%
£400 or
more
3.5%
£100199.99
6.0%
£1-99.99
2.9%
None
76.6%
6.174
Households in both the social and private
rented sectors are able to claim support with
the rent costs in the form of housing benefit.
The Department of Work and Pensions (DWP)
publish quarterly statistics for housing benefit
recipients.
6.175
Housing benefit statistics distinguish between local authority tenants and other tenants but not
between tenants of registered social landlord properties or tenants in the private rented sector. There
are no precise figures for the number of housing benefit claimants in the private rented sector, but only
broad indications of how housing benefit claimant numbers in the private rented sector have been
changing.
6.176
North Kent has seen a rise in the total number of claimants since 2004. In total, the number of
claimants has risen from 19,500 in the first quarter of 2004 to 25,300 in the third quarter of 2007 which
represents a rise of 30%. Figure 131 and Figure 132 detail how the number of claimants has risen
across the four local authorities within the sub-region. Swale has experienced the largest increase
(46%), while Medway has experienced the smallest increase (15%), over the three year period. This
suggests that the private rented sector is playing an increasing role in housing people unable to access
home ownership or the private rented sector.
Page 125
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 131
Figure 132
Number of Non Local Authority Tenant Housing Benefit Recipients Index of Non Local Authority Tenant Housing Benefit Recipients
by Local Authority: Q1 2004-Q3 2007 (Source: DWP)
relative to Q4 2004 base: Q4 2004-Q3 2007 (Source: DWP)
+50%
Number of households (000s)
14
13
12
+45%
+40%
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
+35%
+30%
+25%
+20%
+15%
+10%
+5%
0
+0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2005
Dartford
Gravesham
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
Swale
North Kent
2006
2007
Medway
The Importance of Intermediate Housing and how the need for it changes if market prices fall
6.177
The importance of intermediate housing as a policy and investment issue cannot be overstated. Indeed
PPS3 describes its value in policy terms:
Intermediate Affordable Housing and PPS3
A sufficient supply of intermediate affordable housing can help address the needs of key workers and those seeking to
gain a first step on the housing ladder, reduce the call on social-rented housing, free up existing social-rented homes,
provide wider choice for households and ensure that sites have a mix of tenures
6.178
PPS3 is careful to point out that that the full term is intermediate affordable housing and distinguishes
between the terms affordable housing and affordability. So great care must be taken to ensure that
intermediate affordable housing products are not confused with low cost home ownership products
that are charged at low market prices.
6.179
It is clear from the evidence in this report that the intermediate affordable housing requirement is
significant and important. However, it’s importance in the medium term is understated because of the
credit crunch.
6.180
Whilst it is widely agreed that affordability ratios are improving and will continue to improve for the
next year or so, the benefit is not uniform and it will affect household groups differently.
6.181
Firstly, price weaknesses will occur mostly in cheaper lower quality housing. If a 15-25% price drop is
expected on average over the peak prices of 2007, some properties will drop considerably further,
others hardly at all.
6.182
Secondly, there are a group of people for whom shared ownership or cheaper home ownership would
be affordable but who would not be able to access mortgage finance. They are regarded as sub-prime
Page 126
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
borrowers. Examples would be those with a history of debt or possibly no credit history. It is likely that
people seeking housing following a relationship breakdown would be in this group.
6.183
The private rented sector is also an important source of intermediate affordable housing where tenants
are supported through housing benefit.
6.184
The findings of this chapter therefore demonstrate the significant contribution that intermediate
affordable housing and the private rented sector can make in a financial climate that is constraining
owner occupation and low cost home ownership products.
Expression of Housing Need
Analysing Housing Register Data to Determine Housing Need
6.185
A source for identifying local housing need
suggested by the Practice Guidance is local
housing registers data, operated by individual
local authorities and other social landlords.
Figure 133
Local Authority Social Housing Waiting List for Non-transfer
Applicants 1997-2008 (Source: Housing Strategy Statistical
Appendix)
14,000
12,000
6.186
6.187
6.188
Figure 133 indicates that the total number of
non-transfer applications on waiting lists in the
sub-region has risen in the last 10 years from
around 8,800 to around 17,100.
Figure 134 shows that as a proportion of all
households in the local authority, Gravesham
has fewer people on its waiting list than any
other authority. Gravesham’s social housing
stock is also larger than any other authority and
when taken as a proportion of all social housing
in the authority. Gravesham also has fewer
applicants on its waiting list than any other
authority.
Nevertheless, such data cannot usually be
considered robust due to a wide range of
problems.
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1997
Dartford
2001
Gravesham
2005
Medway
Swale
Figure 134
Local Authority Social Housing Waiting List for Non-transfer
Applicants as Percentage of all Households and Social Households
2007 (Source: Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix)
Page 127
% of all
households in LA
2008
Applicants per 100
social dwellings
2008
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
8.2
3.9
7.3
7.6
58.7
22.8
52.9
53.6
North Kent
7.0
48.0
Local Authority
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
6.189
The 2001 DETR publication “Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to Good Practice” noted:
“Housing registers should preferably be open to all, but even then it is likely that not all need, and
possibly only a minority of need, will be registered; estimates based only on housing registers are
likely to be an underestimate for this reason, but this may be offset by the inclusion of ‘deadwood’
and ‘insurance’ registrations”
“Many people potentially in housing need fail to apply [to the housing register] – in some cases
because they judge that there is little chance of their being offered a suitable property”
“The reliability of [housing registers] … would depend, of course, on landlords’ approaches to
reviewing their registers.”
6.190
6.191
On the basis of our own analysis of housing registers, including a study for the National Assembly for
Wales specifically concerned with waiting list applicants, we have found that often;

Households who are not currently in need (who are registered “just in case”) are included;

Households can be double counted, as registers overlap between landlords and newly forming
households often registered more than once (as two or more individuals register independently
but anticipate living together);

Households who can afford local housing may be included – as many registers are open and do
not necessarily restrict application based on financial circumstances;

There are significant amounts of “deadwood” (where households have moved and/or no longer
require social housing), especially where registers are not actively maintained; and

Households seeking intermediate housing are often excluded, as they do not apply to the
Council or other landlords for housing.
It is apparent that whilst housing registers can provide valuable information on current need, in
particular in relation to specific localities, they do not normally provide a good basis for strategic
analysis.
Acute Housing Need: Homelessness
6.192
A key duty of local authorities is to administer cases of homelessness. The Housing Act 1996 states that
if the authority is satisfied that the applicant has a priority need, they shall;
Households Defined as being in Priority Need
The following groups of households were originally defined as being in priority need under the 1996 Housing Act:

pregnant women;

persons with whom a pregnant woman resides, or might reasonably be expected to reside;

persons with dependent children, or with whom dependent children might reasonably be expected to reside;

persons who are vulnerable – because of old age, mental or physical disability, or other special reason;

persons who are homeless in emergency.
The following categories were added to this list by the Priority Needs Order 2001:

16 to 17-year-olds (not relevant children under the Children’s Act 1989 and Children Leaving Care Act 2000);

young persons under 21 who are looked after/accommodated between 16 and 18;

young persons under the age of 21 who are vulnerable as result of being looked after/accommodated/fostered;

those who are vulnerable as result of being in HM forces;

those who are vulnerable as a result of custodial sentence/remand to custody/contempt of court/kindred offence;

those who are vulnerable as result of leaving accommodation because of threats of violence.
Page 128
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
6.193
6.194

secure that accommodation is available for his occupation for such period as they consider will
give him a reasonable opportunity of securing accommodation for his occupation; and

provide him with advice and assistance as they consider appropriate in the circumstances in
any attempts he may make to secure that accommodation becomes available for his
occupation.
Cases can be found to be homeless but not in priority need because they may have made themselves
intentionally homeless. Examples of people who have made themselves intentionally homeless might
be those who:

Deliberately made themselves homeless by leaving home knowing they could reasonably have
stayed; or

Deliberately caused a serious nuisance or withheld rent or mortgage payments.
Figure 135 indicates that the total number of
claims for homelessness has gradually fallen
since 2004, along with accepted claims. The
number of households housed in temporary
accommodation rose to a peak of over 1,200 in
2005 but has since fallen rapidly to only 504 in
the third quarter of 2008.
Figure 135
Unintentionally Homeless and in Priority Need Applications and
Households in Temporary Accommodation for North Kent 2004 Q12008 Q3 (Source: Local Authority P1E Homelessness Data. Note:
Number of cases based on 12-months to end of quarter)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
6.195
600
Figure 136 indicates that in 2003 the total
400
number of acceptances for homelessness was
200
higher in Medway than in any of the other local
0
authorities in the sub-region, but it should be
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
remembered that Medway’s population is
Accepted Claims for Homelessness
higher than that of any other authority.
Total Claims for Homelessness
However, since this time Medway has
Households in Temporary Accommodation
significantly reduced the number of cases which
are accepted as homeless. It should be noted however that one of the major factors that has
influenced these numbers is an increased emphasis from the councils on preventing homelessness.
6.196
Similarly, from 2005 onwards, Figure 137 shows that Medway has significantly reduced the number of
households held in temporary accommodation.
Page 129
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 136
Figure 137
Unintentionally Homeless and in Priority Need Households by Local
Households in Temporary Accommodation by Local Authority Q1 2004Authority Q1 2004- Q3 2008 (Source: Local Authority P1E Homelessness Q3 2008 (Source: Local Authority P1E Homelessness Data)
Data. Note: Number of cases based on 12-months to end of quarter)
200
800
180
700
160
600
140
120
500
100
400
80
300
60
200
40
100
20
0
0
2004
6.197
2005
2006
2007
2008
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Dartford
Gravesham
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
Medway
Swale
Figure 138 and Figure 139 identify the ethnic minority dimension to homelessness acceptances across
the North Kent sub-region. Of all households accepted as being homeless and in priority need in the
period 2003-08, around 8.6% were from Non-Whites, which is slightly higher than their share of the
total population. It is worth noting at this stage that there is no data available for ‘Other White’ groups,
and so the only ethnic minorities represented here are non-white groups.
Figure 138
Homeless and in Priority Need by Ethnic Group Q1 2003-Q3 2008
(Source: Local Authority P1E Homelessness Data)
Homelessness
Cases
Ethnic Group
White
African, Caribbean
Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi
Other ethnic group
Ethnic origin unknown
2,817
75
89
109
36
Total
3,171
Figure 139
Homeless and in Priority Need by Ethnic Group by Local Authority
Q1 2003-Q3 2008 (Source: Local Authority P1E Homelessness Data
and UK Census of Population 2001)
% of cases from
BME groups
% of population
from BME groups
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
8.5%
11.7%
4.6%
3.7%
5.5%
10.5%
5.4%
1.9%
North Kent
8.6%
5.8%
Local Authority
Page 130
Section 6: Housing Need and Requirements
Chapter 6: Key points
Index of Multiple Deprivation

Between 2004 and 2007 around the same number of lower super output areas in north Kent saw a reduction in their IMD
score as saw an increase. The areas more likely to see a rise in their score were to be found in the north of the sub-region.
Overcrowding

A total of 5.9% of households in North Kent lived in overcrowded conditions at the time of the 2001 census, which is
slightly lower than for England as a whole. Dartford has the highest proportion (6.4%) and Swale the lowest proportion
(5.4%) of overcrowded households in the sub-region. Overcrowding varies greatly by tenure with only 3% of owner
occupied dwellings overcrowded compared to 13% of social rented and 14% of private rented.
Unsuitably Housed Households

It is often the case that where a household is unsuitably housed a move is not necessary or that even when it is, the overall
number of homes remains the same. However, it may be necessary to provide additional housing with particular
characteristics.

Most of the predicted areas of unsuitable housing are contained within the urban areas, with many rural areas showing
very low levels. Across the whole sub-region around 32,500 households are unsuitably housed, (14.6% of all households).

Those households who cannot afford to either move or achieve ‘in situ’ remedies may be awarded grants from Local
Authority for adaptations. Older people, in particular, will rely on a combination of adaptations, ‘telecare’, low level
warden support, or domiciliary care to be able to live independently.
Affordability

Between 2000 and 2008 the average property price in North Kent rose by 103%. Prices in Dartford have remained
consistently the highest in the sub-region, while those in Medway have been the lowest. Most of the increase in property
prices occurred between 2001 and 2004.

Around 75% of properties sold in the second quarter of 2000 were priced at less than £100,000 – only 10% of sales were in
this band from 2004 onwards and properties selling for over £200,000 have risen from less than 5% of sales to 30% of the
total.

The volume of properties sold peaked in late 2002 and then again in 2007 (15,100) after falling dramatically in 2006. Sales
have once again fallen sharply with only 7,100 transactions completed in 2008.

On the basis of households spending no more than 25% of their gross income on housing cost, all households earning
£20,000 or less would require social rented housing. Households with very low income may also receive housing benefit.

There is an affordability gap for those earning between £20,000 and £34,999 with only 14.6% of properties sold being
affordable to this group at the maximum 3.5x earnings ratio. Owing to the poor state of repair of lower priced properties,
£25,000 is considered to define the entry level for market housing.

The proportion of households who have incomes of up to £25,000 and do not currently have equity in their own home
accounts for 19.14% of all households, whereas only 2.2% of dwellings in the area would be affordable for purchase by this
group and 3.9% would be affordable through the private rented sector. However, 15.2% would also be affordable though
social rent so more than enough housing is available to this group.

Housing need may be higher than estimated as the model only considers existing households in North Kent and some
households earning above the threshold may still need social rented housing. Potentially, households earning over
£20,000 could access intermediate housing but many are still accessing social housing tenancies although means testing
only occurs at the point of allocation and it is not possible to force higher earning tenants to move.
Page 131
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Future Housing Requirements

In the period to 2008-2026, the requirement for social rented housing accounts for 12,900 of the 50,200 residual
requirement; equivalent to 25.7% of the total.

Gravesham has the highest proportionate requirement for additional social rented housing at 35.6%, Medway the
lowest at 20.9%.

Using house prices from 2008 the model highlights a surplus an implied surplus of 1,300 intermediate affordable
housing units. These units are to be found in the cheaper owner occupied and private rented sectors which currently
meet the needs of households who require affordable housing.

Dartford, Gravesham and Swale all have identified requirements for intermediate housing, but none is required in
Medway. This is due to the entry level price of housing in Medway being below that of the other areas and that
affordability pressures are lower in the borough. When viewed from a sub-regional perspective, households who
cannot afford market housing in Dartford, Gravesham or Swale may be able to do so in Medway because of its relatively
large stock of relatively cheap housing. However, when viewed from the perspective of each individual authority there
is a lack of intermediate housing in Dartford, Gravesham and Swale due to a lack of relatively affordable owner occupied
or private rent housing.

If house prices were to grow from their 2008 levels, fewer dwellings in the private sector will become affordable to
households without equity and with incomes below £25,000, so the need for intermediate affordable housing will
increase. Furthermore, higher house prices will lead to fewer households being able to afford market housing, so the
requirement for additional market housing will decrease.

70% of future requirements for social rented housing are for smaller homes (1 and 2 Bedroom). 65% of future
requirements for other tenures is for larger (3+ bedroom) homes
Intermediate Housing Requirement

Almost 75% of the recent sales of shared ownership dwellings in North Kent have gone to people aged less than 35
years. In terms of gross household incomes, only 35% of sales have been made to households with incomes of less than
£25,000, while over 20% of households had gross incomes of £35,000 plus.

The model presented earlier in this chapter is underwritten by affordability rather than preference considerations.
However, many households would prefer shared ownership as a long-term alternative to private renting. The
households who have been purchasing shared ownership with incomes of over £25,000 per annum are likely to be able
to afford to rent privately, but have chosen not to do so.

A significant number of people in the 22-29 years age band could potentially afford to access a housing product with a
starting threshold of around £20,000. It is also the case that a typical individual’s income grows considerably between
the ages of 22 and 39. Therefore, someone who buys into an affordable home ownership product in their twenties may
well be able to progress and staircase to full home ownership in their thirties.

North Kent has seen a rise in the total number of housing benefit claimants in non-Council owned dwellings since 2004.
This suggests that the private rented sector is playing an increasing role in housing people unable to access home
ownership or the private rented sector without support.
Page 132
Section 7: Niche Group Analysis
Introduction
7.1
7.2
Whilst we have established an understanding of the housing needs and housing requirements of the
overall population of North Kent, the following section considers the needs of certain sub-groups of the
population, in particular, where their needs may differ from the needs of the general household
population.
The sub-groups considered by the study included;

housing needs of older people;

supported housing and health needs;

housing needs of the black and minority ethnic population; and

rural housing.
Understanding the Housing Requirements of Older People
Older Population
7.3
There were 100,200 people of retirement age
identified in the North Kent sub-region by the
2001 Census. Of these 34,500 (34%) were aged
75 or over, including 8,400 (8%) who were aged
85+.
Figure 140
Age Profile for those of Retirement Age or over North Kent 2001
(Source: 2001 Census of Population)
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
15
10
5
-
5
Number of People (thousands)
Male
Page 133
Female
10
15
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
7.4
The age structure of the population of North
Kent from the ONS mid-year population
estimates for 2007 (Figure 25) shows that there
are proportionally fewer older people aged 50+
years in the area than in the South East as a
whole.
North Kent also has a greater
proportion of younger persons compared with
the South East.
Figure 141
Age Profile for North Kent Compared with the South East: 2007
(Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates)
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
Population Projections
-0.6%
North Kent’s projected older peoples population
-0.8%
is estimated to rise by 46% (38,900 net extra
older people) between years 2008-2025 (see
Age Group
Figure 142). These figures are based on the
ONS 2006 based households projections 20062031 and are taken from the Projecting Older Person Population Information (POPPI)
http://poppi.org.uk system. The projections show an extra 8,200 people aged over 85 years, a rise of
83% on present numbers. The over 85 overall population share rises from 1.7% to 2.8% for the total
population (Figure 143 ).
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
7.5
-0.4%
Figure 142
Persons by Age Group 2008-2025 (Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System)
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
Total Change
2008-2025
65-69 years
24,700
26,500
33,100
29,400
32,400
7,700
70-74 years
21,100
22,000
24,300
30,600
27,300
6,200
75-79 years
16,800
17,100
19,100
21,600
27,300
10,500
80-84 years
11,600
12,100
13,500
15,600
17,900
6,300
9,900
10,400
12,100
14,600
18,100
8,200
84,100
88,100
102,100
111,800
123,000
38,900
Age Group
Age Group
85+ years
Total
Figure 143
Percentage of Population by Age Group 2008-2025 (Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System)
Age Group
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
Population aged 65 and over
as a proportion of the total
population
14.6%
15.1%
16.9%
17.9%
19.1%
Population aged 85 and over
as a proportion of the total
population
1.7%
1.8%
2.0%
2.3%
2.8%
7.6
A significant number of the increased older person population will be single person households.
7.7
Figure 144 shows that of the extra 38,900 older persons projected living in North Kent by 2025, over
14,000 are expected to be found in single person households.
Page 134
Section 7: Niche group analysis
Figure 144
Living Alone by Age Group 2008-2025 (Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System)
Age Group
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
Total Change
2008-2025
Total population aged 6574 predicted to live alone
11,627
12,277
14,575
15,159
15,046
3,419
Total population aged 75
and over predicted to live
alone
17,972
18,286
20,483
23,497
28,577
10,605
Total
29,599
30,563
35,058
38,656
43,623
14,024
Health
7.8
Data from the 2001 Census indicates that 45% of people of pensionable age suffer from a limiting longterm illness (Figure 145). This figure is 33.4% for those aged up to 70 years, but rises rapidly to over
two-thirds for those aged 85 years and above. Therefore, the forecasted growth in the older
population of the North Kent is likely to see more people with support needs in the future.
Figure 145
Limiting Long-term Illness of Older People by Age Group (Source: UK Census of Population 2001. Note: Data is for females aged 60 years and over
and males aged 65 years and over)
North Kent
AGE RANGE
60/65-69 years
70-74 years
75-79 years
80-84 years
85-89 years
90+ years
0%
20%
40%
Percentage of Population
60%
80%
Access to a Car or Van
7.9
Access to services is a crucial issue for older people. Figure 146 shows that pensioner households are
much less likely to have access to a car or van than the population of the North Kent as a whole which,
if services are located at distance further than a short walking distance, is likely to limit access to
services. Over 50% of pensioner households do not have access to a car or van and therefore are far
more dependent upon public transport than the rest of the population. However, with free bus passes
for the over 60s this is often the mode of choice. There is little difference between the authorities
within the sub-region, however it can be seen that pensioner households in Medway are the least likely
to own a car or van.
Page 135
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 146
Number of Cars or Vans by Pensioner Households (Source: UK Census of Population)
ALL…
North Kent
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
PENSIONER …
North Kent
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
0%
10%
20%
None
30%
40%
One
50%
60%
70%
Two
80%
90%
100%
Three or more
Tenure
7.10
Figure 147 shows that in North Kent 3.7% of older persons live in communal establishments, mainly
medical and care establishments. Over 5% of Dartford’s residents of pensionable age live in communal
establishments compared to only 2.9% in Gravesham. The figure for the whole sub-region is as high as
14.9% for those aged 85-89 years and 30.6% for those aged 90 years or more. Given the projected
growth of the older population it is likely that there will be an increased requirement for care and
medical provision for them.
Figure 147
Proportion of Older People in Communal Housing by Type of Establishment by Age Group (Source: UK Census of Population 2001. Note: Data is
for females aged 60 years and over and males aged 65 years and over)
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
North kent
AGE RANGE
60/65-69 years
70-74 years
75-79 years
80-84
85-89
90+ Years
0%
7.11
5%
10%
15%
20%
Percentage of Population
25%
30%
35%
Figure 147 shows that for those pensioner households in private housing, almost 75% are in owner
occupied dwellings, and almost 20% are in the social rented sector. Very few pensioner households are
to be found in the private rented sector. The tenure of pensioner households varies by local authority;
however this mostly reflects the differences in the proportion of social rented housing in the area.
Page 136
Section 7: Niche group analysis
Figure 148
Tenure of Pensioner Households by Local Authority (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
North Kent
LOCAL AUTHORITY
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
0%
10%
Owner occupied
20%
30%
40%
Rent from Council
50%
60%
Other social rent
70%
80%
90%
100%
Private rent
Housing Typologies for older people and the spectrum of care
Figure 149
Housing typologies (HAPPI report 2009)
7.12
It apparent from demographic information
presented earlier in the report and the information
contained in this section that housing and support for
older people is a complex subject. This is succinctly
described in Figure 149 opposite taken from the
HAPPI report (Housing our Ageing Population Panel
for
Innovation,
(HCA
2009))
http://www.homesandcommunities.co.uk/public/doc
uments/HAPPI%20Executive%20Summary.pdf
7.13
The key message from the HAPPI report is
that that if steps are taken to provide a wider range
of suitable housing in tune with the requirements of
older people, then experience from the continent
suggests that older people will exercise choice and
this will benefit both older people and younger
households seeking family housing.
7.14
This is an important and timely report that
will enable policy makers to think beyond the
demographic information reported in the SHMA. It is
clear that the policy response needs to consider a
wider range of factors than size and tenure if a
greater proportion of older people are enabled to
make a positive choice and occupy housing that they
enjoy as well as being more suited to their needs.
Page 137
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Understanding the Housing Requirements of Disabled People
7.15
Information from the 2001 Census indicates that 15.5% of the population of North Kent had a limiting
long-term illness or disability, which amounts to a total of 85,000 people across the region.
7.16
Figure 150 shows how the proportion of people with limiting long-term illness varies by age and tenure.
This highlights that 25.8% of people living in social rent in North Kent were considered to have a
limiting long-term illness.
Figure 150
Limiting Long-term Illness by Age and Tenure 2001 (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
All People
AGE
0-4 years
5-9 years
10-15 years
16-24 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-49 years
50-54 years
55-59 years
60-64 years
65-74 years
75-84 years
85+ years
TENURE
Owned
Private rent
Social rent
0%
7.17
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Figure 151 shows how benefit receipt related to health problems has varied in North Kent in recent
years with May 2002 being treated as a base for the comparisons. This shows that the number of
people claiming incapacity benefit rose from 1999 until 2008, but has been declining since this time and
currently stands at 19,110 recipients in North Kent. Meanwhile, the number of people claiming
disability living allowance has risen steadily since 2002 and now stands at 27,160 recipients.
Page 138
Section 7: Niche group analysis
Figure 151
Incapacity Benefit and Disability Living Allowance Claimants
1999-2009 (Source: Department of Work and Pensions)
160%
150%
140%
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Disability Living Allowance
7.18
2006
2007
2008
2009
Incapacity benefit
The Projecting Adult Needs and Services Information (PANSI) http://pansi.org.uk system, has produced
estimated for the number of people aged 18-64 years who will suffer from particular health problems
in the period 2008-2025 (Figure 152). This shows that the number of people who projected to suffer
from health problems is expected to rise and this will place extra burden on health and support
services.
Figure 152
Projected Number of People With Health Problems Aged 18-64 Years 2008-2025 (Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information System)
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
Total Change
2008-2025
10,705
10,817
10,946
11,095
11,226
521
Moderate
27,826
28,222
28,552
29,609
30,256
2,430
Serious
8,279
8,364
8,374
8,815
9,131
852
Age Group
Learning Disability
All Learning Disabilities
Physical Disability
Mental Health Problems
Depression
9,146
9,244
9,375
9,506
9,651
405
Neurotic disorder
59,039
59,683
60,530
61,378
62,333
3,294
Personality disorder
15,741
15,902
16,124
16,345
16,571
830
Psychotic disorder
1,969
1,991
2,019
2,046
2,076
107
7.19
However, the rise in health problems amongst those aged 18-64 is minimal compared to those that are
projected to affect older persons. The number of older people who have difficulties in carrying out
typical household tasks is projected to rise to over 44,700 by 2025. Figure 153 shows that currently
29,400 older persons in North Kent are projected to have difficulties completing at least one household
task, (this represents around 35% of all older persons). This number is projected to see a further
15,300 increase in older persons who have difficulties with at least one task by 2025.
7.20
Typical household tasks include household shopping, wash and dry dishes, clean windows inside, jobs
involving climbing, use a vacuum cleaner to clean floors, wash clothing by hand, open screw tops and
deal with personal affairs.
Page 139
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 153
Unable to Manage at Least one Task by Age Group 2008-2025 (Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System)
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
Total Change
2008-2025
People aged 65-74
unable to manage at
least one domestic task
on their own
10,992
11,640
13,776
14,400
14,328
3,336
People aged 75 and over
unable to manage at
least one domestic task
on their own
18,384
19,008
21,456
24,864
30,384
12,000
Total
29,376
30,648
35,232
39,264
44,712
15,336
Age Group
7.21
Figure 154 shows the number of older people who have difficulties in carrying out typical self care
activities is projected to rise by over 14,200 by 2025. Currently, 27,300 older persons in North Kent are
identified as having difficulties completing at least one self-care activity, which represents around 32%
of all older persons.
7.22
Typical self care activities include bathing, showering or washing all over, dressing and undressing,
washing face and hands, feeding and cutting toenails.
Figure 154
Unable to Manage at Least one Self-care Activity by Age Group 2008-2025 (Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System)
Age Group
People aged 65-74
unable to manage at
least one self-care
activity on their own
People aged 75 and over
unable to manage at
least one self-care
activity on their own
Total
7.23
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
Total Change
2008-2025
10,214
10,812
12,788
13,372
13,310
3.096
17,100
17,680
19,948
23,104
28,224
11,124
27,314
28,492
32,736
36,476
41,534
14,220
Figure 155 shows that 38,400 older persons in North Kent are estimated as having a limiting long-term
illness (2008), which represents around 45% of all older persons. The growth in the older person
population is projected to see 19,000 additional older persons who will have a limiting long-term illness
by 2025.
Figure 155
Limiting Long-term Illness by Age Group 2008-2025 (Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System)
Age Group
People aged 65-74 with a
limiting long-term illness
People aged 75-84 with a
limiting long-term illness
People aged 85 and over
with a limiting long-term
illness
Total
7.24
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
Total Change
2008-2025
17,767
18,830
22,313
23,323
23,199
5,432
15,032
15,457
17,267
19,712
23,956
8,924
5,647
5,930
6,898
8,322
10,319
4,672
38,446
40,217
46,478
51,357
57,474
19,028
Figure 156 shows that of the older persons with a limiting long-term illness, 14,700 are currently
estimated to be living alone. By 2025 another 8,200 older persons with limiting long-term illnesses are
projected to be living alone across North Kent.
Page 140
Section 7: Niche group analysis
Figure 156
Illnesses by Living Alone by Age Group 2008-2025 (Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System)
Age Group
People aged 65-69 with a
limiting long-term illness,
living alone
People aged 70-74 with a
limiting long-term illness,
living alone
People aged 75-79 with a
limiting long-term illness,
living alone
People aged 80-84 with a
limiting long-term illness,
living alone
People aged 85 and over
with a limiting long-term
illness, living alone
Total
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
Total Change
2008-2025
1,958
2,101
2,628
2,331
2,567
609
2,636
2,750
3,040
3,831
3,417
781
3,416
3,478
3,892
4,406
5,569
2,153
3,238
3,376
3,769
4,357
4,998
1,760
3,479
3,652
4,247
5,124
6,354
2,875
14,727
15,357
17,576
20,049
22,905
8,178
Housing Issues related to Minority Ethnic Groups
7.25
This section of the report seeks to provide a baseline understanding of housing issues relating to
minority ethnic groups in the local area, drawing on a wide range of secondary data sources.
BME Population
7.26
The 2001 Census contains detailed information on the ethnicity of the population of North Kent. The
2001 Census classified ethnic groups on the basis of sixteen categories which are standardised across
all UK government sources (Figure 157). This classification is also used by the Commission for Racial
Equality (CRE) and many other organisations interested in analysing information about BME
communities. These sixteen categories can be grouped together into five aggregate groups, these
being White, Mixed, Black, Asian and Other. Some information sources do not provide any details
beyond these broad groupings (though White British and White Non British are sometimes reported
independently).
Page 141
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 157
Ethnic Group Classification (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
Broad Ethnic Group
White
Detailed Ethnic Group Classification
White: British
White: Irish
White: White Other
Mixed
Mixed: White and Black Caribbean
Mixed: White and Black African
Mixed: White and Asian
Mixed: Other Mixed
Asian
Asian or Asian British: Indian
Asian or Asian British: Pakistani
Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi
Asian or Asian British: Other Asian
Black
Black or Black British: Black Caribbean
Black or Black British: Black African
Black or Black British: Other Black
Other
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group: Chinese
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group: Other Ethnic Group
7.27
Information from the Census is based on self assessment. Each person must decide to which ethnic
group they belong. This inherently introduces some degree of inaccuracy into the data. For instance,
when we consider those people that were born in the Middle East, there is a clear division between
those classifying themselves as “Asian Other” and those choosing “Other Ethnic Group” despite their
actual origins being the same.
7.28
In the 2001 Census the Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) population in North Kent comprised 7.8% of
the total population, including 2.3% of the population who were White, but not White British, and a
further 5.5% who could be considered as a Non-White population. The proportion of BME residents
varied by local authority with BME groups comprising 12.8% of the total population in Gravesham,
including 10.5% non-white groups. In contrast, only 3.9% of the population of Swale consisted of BME
groups.
7.29
The ethnic minority population of North Kent compared with the South East and England and Wales at
the time of the 2001 Census is shown in Figure 158. As previously noted the BME population
(including White Non-British and Non-White residents) accounted for 7.8% of the total compared with
8.7% for the South East and 12.5% for England and Wales as a whole.
7.30
North Kent’s largest ethnic groups, as classified by the 2001 Census, are Indian (2.5%), Other White
(1.4%) and White Irish (0.9%). In particular, the Indian population in North Kent is higher than both
the National (2%) and regional (1.1%) figures.
Page 142
Section 7: Niche group analysis
Figure 158
Black and Ethnic Minority Population by Ethnic Group in 2001 (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
White Irish
Other White
White and Black Caribbean
White and Black African
White and Asian
Other Mixed
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Other Asian
Caribbean
African
Other Black
Chinese
Other Ethnic Group
0%
1%
England & Wales
7.31
South East
2%
3%
North Kent
Recent estimates form the ONS show that the BME population of North Kent has grown since 2001
(Figure 159). Most notably, the White Other and Black African populations are estimated to have
grown
strongly
since
2001.
ONS
statistics
are
experimental;
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14238
Page 143
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 159
Black and Ethnic Minority Population by Ethnic Group in 2001 and 2007 (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and ONS Mid-year BME Population
Estimates)
White Irish
Other White
White and Black Caribbean
White and Black African
White and Asian
Other Mixed
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Other Asian
Caribbean
African
Other Black
Chinese
Other Ethnic Group
0%
1%
North Kent 2001
2%
3%
North Kent 2007
7.32
To further highlight how the BME population of North Kent may have changed recently, Figure 160
and Figure 161 compare how large a share BME group children formed of primary school rolls across
Kent in 2004 and 2007. The data is drawn from the Pupil Level Annual Schools Census (PLASC) which is
conducted every January by every maintained school. Unfortunately there is no data at district level,
however, the data for Kent (and Medway - Figure 162 and Figure 163) should give a general idea of
the situation in North Kent.
7.33
In 2004 children from identified BME groups formed 7.1% of all pupils in primary schools in Kent. By
2007 this figure had risen to 11.4% of all primary school children. Therefore, there has been a
substantial rise in the share of children in Kent primary schools who come from BME groups. Some of
this rise is likely to be due to the relative youth of the existing BME population of Kent, but some may
also be due to BME communities moving to the area.
Page 144
Section 7: Niche group analysis
Figure 160
Figure 161
Ethnicity of Primary School Pupils in Kent in 2004 (Source: Pupil Level Ethnicity of Primary School Pupils in Kent in 2007 (Source: Pupil Level
Annual Schools Census)
Annual Schools Census)
Asian Black Other
Mixed 1.8% 0.7% 0.5%
2.1%
Other
White
2.1%
Asian Black
Mixed 2.6% 1.1%
2.7%
Other
White
4.2%
Other
0.8%
White
British
88.6%
White
British
92.9%
Figure 162
Ethnicity of Primary School Pupils in Medway in 2004 (Source: Pupil
Level Annual Schools Census)
Mixed
3.2%
Other
White
1.1%
Asian
3.2%
Black
1.1%
Figure 163
Ethnicity of Primary School Pupils in Medway in 2007 (Source: Pupil
Level Annual Schools Census)
Other
0.5%
Black Other
Asian
2.2% 0.8%
Mixed 4.0%
3.8%
Other
White
3.1%
White
British
86.1%
White
British
90.9%
7.34
In Medway in 2004 children from identified BME groups formed 9.1% of all pupils in primary schools.
By 2007 this figure had risen to 13.9% of all primary school children again showing a fairly substantial
rise of BME groups. It is likely that the remaining local authorities in North Kent will follow a similar
pattern to that of Medway, owing to their location directly south east of London.
Page 145
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Age Profile and Population Change
7.36
If the age profile of the BME population and the White British population is compared (Figure 164) it is
Figure 164
apparent that the BME population is much
Difference between Age Profile of BME and White British
younger, with a far higher share of the
Population (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
population aged less than 50 years.
2.5%
Figure 165 shows that the older person
population of North Kent is predominantly from
White ethnic groups. 96.2% of all older persons
in 2007 were from White ethnic groups. The
largest non-White grouping of older persons is
classified as being Asian. 2001 Census figures
show the older person population of North Kent
contains many Sikhs, alongside a number of
Hindus, and Muslims. The scale of the Sikh
population may allow for the development of
specific older person housing schemes aimed at
this group in the future.
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
7.35
Age Group
Figure 165
BME Population by Age Group 2006 (Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System)
Age Group
Ethnic Group
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
Total
65,074
42,983
27,424
9,725
145,206
246
155
67
25
493
Asian or Asian British
1,959
1,153
441
97
3,650
Black or Black British
523
332
126
22
1,003
Chinese or Other Ethnic
Group
386
150
63
13
612
68,188
44,771
28,120
9,880
150,959
White (including British, Irish
and Other White)
Mixed Ethnicity
Total
Household Structure
7.37
The private household structure of the BME population of North Kent is distinct from that of the
White British population. As Figure 166 indicates, the BME population was more likely to be living in a
household containing a couple with children. Interestingly, only 4.4% of White British households are
living in the “Other” households, while 12.8% of BME households fall in to this category. This group
includes student and other multi-adult households in shared accommodation, inter-generational
households and other less common groups which were not covered by the more traditional
categories.
Page 146
Section 7: Niche group analysis
Figure 166
Household Structure by Ethnic Group (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
Single person
Adult couple
Pensioner household
Couple with children
Couple, all children non-dep
Lone parent
Lone parent, all children …
Other households
0%
5%
10%
15%
White British
7.38
20%
25%
30%
35%
BME Households
Household structure is further considered in Figure 167, which shows the proportion of households
with two or more dependent children by ethnic group. Over 30% of Pakistani and almost 40% of
Bangladeshi households contained two or more children which is considerably higher than for any
other group. However, almost all BME groups, with the exception of the White Irish, were more likely
to contain two or more dependent children than White British households.
Figure 167
Households with 2 or more Children by Ethnic Group (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
White British
White Irish
Other White
White and Black Caribbean
White and Black African
White and Asian
Other Mixed
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Other Asian
Caribbean
African
Other Black
Chinese
Other Ethnic Group
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Percentage of Households
Housing Tenure
7.39
Figure 168 shows how household tenancy is divided by ethnic group. Over 80% of the Indian and
‘Asian Other’ population live in owner occupied dwellings which is higher than the White British
population. Meanwhile, private renting rates are high in the Black African, Other, Mixed White and
Black African and White Other ethnic groups. Therefore, there are considerable differences in the
tenures occupied by different ethnic groups.
Page 147
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 168
Housing Tenure by Ethnic Group (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
All Persons
White: British
White: Irish
White: Other
White and Black Caribbean
White and Black African
White and Asian
Other Mixed
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Asian Other
Black Caribbean
Black African
Black Other
Chinese
Other Ethnic Group
0%
10%
20%
Owner occupied
7.40
30%
40%
Social rent
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Private rent (inc rent free)
Figure 169 shows how the proportion of households in the social rented sector varies by ethnic group.
This shows that 25% or more of households from the Mixed White and Black African, Bangladeshi and
Other Black groups are living in social rented accommodation, compared to around 15% of all white
groups.
Figure 169
Social Renting by Ethnic Group (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
White: British
White: Irish
White: Other
White and Black Caribbean
White and Black African
White and Asian
Other Mixed
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Asian Other
Black Caribbean
Black African
Black Other
Chinese
Other Ethnic Group
0%
7.41
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Figure 170 records all tenants of socially rented accommodation. Many of these residents would have
lived in their tenancy for a long period of time. Given that the BME population is typically younger it is
interesting to explore the more recent pattern of lettings.
Page 148
Section 7: Niche group analysis
7.42
Figure 170 also compares the recent pattern of lets in North Kent with the data covering the period
from April 2005 to March 2008 for lets in the area. It shows the share of households where the
respondent came from a particular ethnic group at the time of the 2001 Census with the proportion of
that those who reside in social housing from each ethnic group and RSL (not Council) lets to that group
since 2001.
7.43
Since 2005, the share of lets to many BME groups has been above their population share, most notably
for the Mixed White and Black Caribbean and Black African groups. This indicates that housing needs
are higher for these ethnic groups.
Figure 170
Share of Households in Social Housing and Social Lets 2005-2008 for Ethnic Groups (Source: CORE project for the Joint Centre for Scottish Housing
Research and UK Census of Population 2001 Note: Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding)
Ethnic Group
Share of all Households
Share of Households in
Social Housing in 2001
Share of RSL Lets
2005-2008
White: British
93.2%
95.2%
91.9%
White: Irish
1.3%
1.4%
0.3%
White: Other
1.5%
1.0%
1.4%
White and Black Caribbean
0.1%
0.2%
0.9%
White and Black African
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
White and Asian
0.2%
0.1%
0.4%
Other Mixed
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
Indian
1.8%
0.6%
0.8%
Pakistani
0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
Bangladeshi
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
Asian Other
0.3%
0.2%
0.7%
Black Caribbean
0.4%
0.3%
0.6%
Black African
0.2%
0.2%
1.4%
Black Other
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Chinese
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
Other Ethnic Group
0.2%
0.1%
0.3%
ALL HOUSEHOLDS
100%
100%
100%
Housing Conditions
7.44
The most acute housing conditions are widely accepted to be overcrowding and homelessness. These
are examined next. More general housing conditions are reflected in deprivation data and results of
ORS modelling of households that are unsuitably housed both of which are presented spatially below.
Figure 171 shows overcrowding levels amongst the different ethnic groups. The results indicate that
on this measure 33.3% of Asian Other, 24.97% of Black Other, and 27.6% of Other Ethnic Group
households were overcrowded. In comparison, the lowest proportions of overcrowding were for the
White British group at 5.9% and White Irish at 5.4%.
Page 149
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 171
Overcrowded Households by Ethnic Group (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)
Ethnic Group
Percentage of Households
which are Overcrowded
White: British
5.9%
White: Irish
5.4%
White: Other
6.4%
White and Black Caribbean
10.2%
White and Black African
11.7%
White and Asian
13.4%
Other Mixed
8.3%
Indian
14.6%
Pakistani
13.7%
Bangladeshi
16.0%
Asian Other
33.3%
Black Caribbean
17.3%
Black African
9.8%
Black Other
24.9%
Chinese
14.7%
Other Ethnic Group
23.7%
ALL HOUSEHOLDS
19.1%
Homelessness
7.45
In North Kent between the 3rd quarter of 2002
and the most recently available data from the
1st quarter of 2008, 5,241 people were
considered to be homeless and in priority
need. Figure 172 identifies the ethnic minority
dimension to homelessness acceptances across
North Kent. Of all households accepted as
being homeless and in priority need in the
period 2003-08, around 10.1% were from BME
groups, which is much higher than their share
of the total population.
Figure 172
Homeless and in Priority Need by Ethnic Group Q3 2002-Q1 2008
(Source: Local Authority P1E Homelessness Data and UK Census of
Population 2001)
% of cases
from groups
% of population
from groups
White
89.8%
96.0%
Local Authority
African/Caribbean
1.9%
0.7%
Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi
2.4%
2.4%
Other Ethnic Group
2.7%
1.0%
Unknown
3.1%
-
Total
100%
100%
Understanding the Housing Requirements of Rural Households
7.46
While the majority of the population of North Kent live in urban centres, a significant part of the subregion can be considered as being rural.
7.47
Figure 173 shows the variation of house prices from the mean across the South East region from
November 2007 to October 2008 by Middle Super Output Areas (MSOA). Areas in the darkest shade
of orange contain house prices which are over 150% of the South East average and those in the
darkest shade of green are less than 75% of the average. While, the majority of house prices in the
North Kent sub-region are below the South East average it is noticeable that rural house prices are
typically above those in urban areas.
Page 150
Section 7: Niche group analysis
Figure 173
House Prices across Kent compared to the South East average (Source: UK Land Registry November 2007 to October 2008)
7.48
Figure 174 shows the average gross household income levels found in North Kent. This shows that
while house prices may be higher in rural areas it is also the case that typically the household income
levels are also higher.
Page 151
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Figure 174
Average Household Earnings by middle-level Super COA (Source: CACI Paycheck Data)
Page 152
Section 7: Niche group analysis
Index of Multiple Deprivation
7.49
Figure 175 shows relative levels of deprivation in North Kent in 2007. Areas marked in darker shades of
purple contain higher levels of relative deprivation. This shows that deprivation is relatively low in
most rural areas, but large areas of rural Swale do suffer from high levels of deprivation.
Figure 175
Index of Multiple Deprivation for 2007 (Source: CLG. Note: Data shown at lower-level Super COA. Higher levels of deprivation shown in darker
shading)
Page 153
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Assessing Established Households in Unsuitable Housing
7.50
We must distinguish between households in unsuitable housing, those who actually need to move (of
which some will require affordable housing) and the requirements of newly forming households.
Figure 176 shows that across North Kent, the predicted areas of highest unsuitable housing are
contained within the urban areas. Many of the rural areas and villages show very low levels of
predicted unsuitably housed households. However, Swale does contain evidence of more households
in rural areas being unsuitably housed.
Page 154
Section 7: Niche group analysis
Figure 176
Modelled Unsuitably Housed by Output Area (Source: ORS Unsuitably Housed Model 2009)
Page 155
North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Rural housing needs assessments
7.51
While the evidence points to rural areas of North Kent being more prosperous than urban centres,
there are still likely to be households in rural areas facing acute housing need or are unable to form due
to lack of housing. A detailed understanding of highly localised housing needs is beyond the scope of a
strategic assessment such as this one. The most effective method to determine local housing needs in
rural areas is through local housing needs surveys. These will identify those households that are in
need of affordable housing at the time of the survey. Other methods such as the SHMA or district level
housing needs assessments are not capable of this fine grained detail. If they are survey based there
will be significant error due to small sample sizes.
7.52
There are current Parish Needs Assessments for 8 of the 13 Medway Parishes. Headline findings for a 3
year estimate of need can be found at;
http://www.medway.gov.uk/index/housing/housingstrategy/98616.htm
Figure 177
Parish needs assessment findings (Source: Medway Council and Census 2001)
7.53
Single person
Couple
Family
Total persons
All Hallows
9
3
2
14
Parish
population
1,649
Halling
8
9
5
22
2,608
Cliffe
9
4
4
17
5,361
Hoo
6
2
2
16
7,356
Cuxton
3
6
4
13
2,570
St Mary Hoo
0
0
0
0
244
Grain
2
5
4
11
1,731
Stoke
1
2
0
5
1,063
Regarding Gravesham Parishes, equivalent assessments for Higham, Meopham and Cobham parishes
can be found at; http://www.gravesham.gov.uk/index.jsp?articleid=4305 and are summarized below.
Figure 178
Parish needs assessment findings (Source: Gravesham Council)
Single person
Couple
Family
Total persons
Higham
16
14
13
83
Higham Older People
4
4
Meopham
40
16
Meopham Older
People
Cobham
13
7
8
1
7.54
12
13
27
6
Policy issues affecting rural housing are discussed in the next section.
Page 156
110
-
Section 7: Niche group analysis
Summary of Key Findings
Older Persons

There are currently few older persons in North Kent than in the South East as a whole but it is projected that the
population of North Kent is likely to become older in the period up to 2025 with the population aged over 85 years
expected to rise from 1.7% to 2.8% of the total population.

The number of older persons living alone is expected to rise by over 50% in the period 2008-2025.

45% of people of pensionable age suffer from a limiting long-term illness, although it is over two thirds for those
aged 85+ and a greater number of support needs are forecasted for the future.

Given the projected growth it is also likely there will be an increase in the requirement for care and medical
provision for older persons. Currently 14.9% of those aged 85-89 years, and 30.6% of those aged 90 or over live in
communal establishments.
Persons with Health Problems

The number of people with health problems for those aged 18-64 years is expected to rise in the period to 2025,
but most of the rise in health problems is projected to occur amongst those aged 65+ years.

There is projected to be strong growth in older person households containing a person with a limiting long-term
illness. Many of these will be single persons who will have problems with self care or household tasks. Therefore,
the growth of the older person population in North Kent will coincide with an increased need to provide support
services.
BME Groups

Census data shows that the BME population in North Kent comprised 7.8% of the total population – including 2.3%
who were white, but not White British, and a further 5.5% who are Non-White. This varied between local
authorities with the BME population in Gravesham forming 12.8% of the total population compared to only 3.9% in
Swale.

The BME population is generally younger than the White British population and the number of children from BME
groups in primary schools in Kent has risen from 7.1% in 2004 to 11.4% in 2007 (9.1% to 13.9% in Medway). This
may represent the relative youth of the BME population but also BME communities moving to the area.

There are considerable differences in the tenures occupied by different ethnic groups – over 80% of the Indian
population live in owner occupied housing, while private renting rates are high in the Black African, Other, Mixed
White and Black African and White Other ethnic groups.

The highest rates of overcrowding were found in the Asian Other (33%), Black Other (25%) and Other Ethnic Group
(28%) and lowest for the White British (5.9%) and White Irish (5.4%).
Rural Housing

House prices in rural North Kent are typically higher than those in urban areas.

Household income levels are also typically higher in rural areas, while deprivation and unsuitably housed
households are lower. Rural Swale contains many more areas which show evidence of high levels of deprivation
and unsuitable housing.

While rural areas are typically wealthier than urban areas, they will still contain many households who are facing
acute housing needs. Determining very localised housing needs is beyond the scope of a strategic assessment such
as this one and is typically best addressed through local housing needs surveys.
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Section 8: Policy issues and implications arising from the
SHMA
Introduction
8.1
This chapter considers the main policy issues that have arisen from the SHMA and their implications.
Here we focus on the strategic policy issues that contribute to sustainability, social cohesion and
delivery of housing growth. The more detailed or operational policy issues are contained in the key
findings at the end of each chapter.
8.2
The SHMA report has been published at a time when the housing market is well below the recent peak
of its cycle and the rate of recovery is uncertain. The SHMA projects housing requirements based upon
long term trends rather than at a specific point in time. It demonstrates how future housing
requirements, especially intermediate affordable housing products, are sensitive to house price
change. The impact of the current economic climate or ‘credit crunch’ is noted in several places in the
report. However, it is in this chapter that the policy implications of the credit crunch are drawn
together. Regarding long term growth, the local economic development trajectory appears robust and
the SHMA has investigated different scenarios for growth in house prices.
Context and overview - underlying issues Identified by the SHMA
8.3
The SHMA has sought to understand how the housing market needs to change if housing requirements
are to be met by 2026 which is the date by which the next 20 year planning period ends. This cannot
be successfully achieved unless there is an understanding of the role and characteristics of the subregion, its housing markets and the Local Authority areas that fall within them.
8.4
The urban centres of the North Kent sub-region include numerous historic towns and market towns,
surrounded by pleasant countryside. In Medway, over several centuries the armed forces and docks
shaped the development of the towns however the decline of the docks has left a legacy of lower
priced high density terraced housing in the urban centres. Many former military establishments have
been successfully transformed into tourist attractions and a major university campus. The towns have
excellent road and rail links to London. Recently there has been a step change in the public transport
offer with the introduction of the high speed link to St Pancras station in London.
8.5
A major driver of the housing market is migration of households from London. Households leave the
city to find a residential offer that enables a higher standard of living whilst being within travelling
distance of their place of work. There is much outmigration especially to other parts of Kent, the
Eastern Region and on a smaller scale out-migration to other English regions.
8.6
The characteristics of each Local Authority are not uniform across the sub-region. For example, local
authorities to the east have higher average prices than some of the Medway towns. House prices are
much lower than average in parts of the urban centres and parts of the Medway Towns and the coastal
strip have house prices typically 75% below sub-regional averages. The inland areas that are mainly
rural in character have house prices up to 150% of the South East regional average.
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
8.7
As part of a response to the shortage of housing affecting most of England, there is a programme of
planned housing growth, a step change in the supply side that has challenged developers, Registered
Social Landlords (RSL) and Local Authorities to enable this to happen. The challenges are land release
and acquisition, resources and infrastructure. The strategy for the Thames Gateway sub-region has
sought to enable sustainable development through its strategy of delivering growth in key centres that
are also capable of providing employment and services. However, the credit crunch and economic
recession have put this delivery programme at risk. Minimum targets have been set for the delivery of
new housing within the RSS for each Local Authority and one of the key outputs of the SHMA is the
evidence base to support each Local Authorities’ affordable housing policy for development sites and
information to inform the size and tenure mix of what should be built. Local Authorities have a major
role in enabling the delivery of additional housing. The evidence suggests that they are on course to
achieve minimum targets.
8.8
However, size and tenure mix are not the only factors that need to be taken into account when
planning new build housing. The SHMA also describes the most vulnerable groups who have fewer
options in the housing market and are often heavily dependent on social housing and local support
services. The SHMA report arrives at important conclusions about the size and nature of the housing
requirement to 2026. This is the starting point from which to cascade the headline policy issues and
implications.
Major policy issues identified by the SHMA
Structural change in the housing market
8.9
The SHMA estimates a structural change in the housing market that is otherwise masked by the term
‘market housing’ (i.e. housing for sale or rent at market prices). The SHMA estimates that by 2026 the
proportion of owner occupiers in the housing stock will reduce significantly. This is entirely due to
affordability of owner occupation becoming progressively worse, based on long term house price
trends. The SHMA is likely to have underestimated this effect as it does not factor in the possible long
term restrictions on mortgage lending in the wake of the credit crunch. Two important implications
arise.
8.10
Firstly, more people will seek to rent and as a result the market will respond to this. The HCA is
pursuing a policy of encouraging institutional investors as a major funder of growth in the private
rented sector. For the Local Authority, growth in the private rented sector may lead to a greater call on
services for housing enforcement and housing benefit. Enforcement services seek to ensure that
landlords comply with the law affecting private rented housing and initiate legal action if necessary. It
may also present a major opportunity for achieving mixed communities that are less polarised in terms
of tenure and a more seamless way of ensuring that social, intermediate and market rented housing is
provided.
8.11
Secondly, fewer people will amass capital through equity in their home. This in turn will mean that a
smaller proportion of the next generation will inherit capital to enable them to become owner
occupiers. Thus the structural change may become self-reinforcing. .
8.12
There are signs that institutional investors are becoming interested in the private rented sector and
they are considering employing RSLs as managing agents. We can only speculate that this will lead to
higher standards of management in the private rented sector. If this is not the case then the Local
Authority will have to provide resources to ensure that enforcement and advisory services are
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Section 8: Policy Implications
adequate. Irrespective, it is likely that the Local Authority will face a higher demand for housing benefit
claims.
The legacy of the right to buy
8.13
The SHMA describes a further structural change in the housing market that has played out over the last
three decades which is the reduced supply of social housing through the right to buy. The legacy of this
has implications for the current and future housing market.
8.14
The right to buy has had an impact on the affordability of market housing. Ex-local authority stock
when traded on the market tends to be lower priced than housing that was privately built. This has
enabled many households to buy or rent more affordable housing. From web based estate and letting
agents’ advertising such as Rightmove it is apparent that there is a significant but unmeasured private
rented sector based on this housing, again presenting enforcement issues in some areas.
8.15
In rural areas the right to buy has resulted in a greater proportion of the social housing being sold.
Whilst Local Authorities and rural enablers are doing all they can to secure a future supply of new build
housing, re-purchase may be a simpler and cost effective way of reinstating the supply given that
achieving new build housing in rural areas can be problematic.
Rural Housing
8.16
The SHMA considers rural housing affordability and describes contrasting rural circumstances. In
particular rural coastal parts of Swale District have higher levels of multiple deprivation and below
average house prices. This is in contrast to more inland areas where newly forming or local lower
income households are being squeezed out of higher priced rural settlements. The importance of
retaining these households should be stressed as there are clear benefits for retaining the local labour
force, maintaining balanced and mixed rural communities, maintaining family networks and providing
informal care and support. Medway has recently completed housing needs surveys of all its rural
parishes.
Economic drivers
8.17
Whilst the in-migration and commuting flows from and to London are very significant the SHMA shows
that when travel to work to London is excluded the main Medway towns are highly self contained.
Preventing the loss of households out-migrating to seek job opportunities is a significant policy aim.
The loss of younger households may represent a loss in the local skill base and weaken the local
economy. Retaining university graduates in the area may help with the up-skilling of the local
workforce. The economic strategy for the sub-region seems to be robust and delivery is on target in
terms of housing and other projects leading to job creation. Gaps previously identified in the supply of
executive housing appear to be addressed by the market in the form of recent planning applications.
Unsuitable housing and households with support needs
8.18
Shortages of all forms of affordable housing have implications of overcrowding, health, a decent
standard of living and achieving personal aspirations such as living independently, having children,
being part of the family or social network of choice. These are all factors that contribute to the
sustainability of neighbourhoods.
8.19
There are many policy implications presented by the aim of supporting households with special needs
or support needs as part of the mixed community. The policy aim is to assist as many people to live
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
independently for as long as possible. This means that for people with limited mobility specially
designed housing can assist greatly. Residents of existing dwellings can be assisted with adaptations.
Both groups will rely on care and support from a range of agencies as well as friends and relatives.
‘Care and repair’ delivered by Home Improvement Agencies provides invaluable support and expertise.
This issue is highlighted because of evidence within the SHMA of growing numbers of elderly people
nationally and locally. This is a major policy and service delivery challenge for Local Authorities and
their partners.
8.20
The SHMA draws attention to specific locations that have high Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD)
scores. Detailed evidence shows many neighbourhoods in urban and rural areas that have high scores
and equally high proportions of households living in unsuitable housing. The SHMA also evidences high
levels of overcrowding that disproportionately affect large households on low income. Officials believe
that problems in most areas will be addressed as a natural consequence of the economic success of the
area. The ‘vital signs’ of areas facing the most severe problems should be monitored closely.
Future Housing Requirements and the affordable housing target
8.21
The SHMA has estimated the following housing requirement to 2026 based upon trends and
affordability considerations. The balance of requirements between market and intermediate
affordable housing is sensitive to changes in market prices. In Figure 179 (also appears in Chapter 6)
we show how the proportion of the requirement for market and intermediate affordable housing varies
according to different assumptions about house prices and rental yields for private rented sector
housing. As is noted in chapter 6, Medway Council believes that the final scenario is the most plausible
scenario given its economic development trajectory. Gravesham believes that the first scenario is more
appropriate. Local Authorities will have regard to the SHMA housing requirement outputs on the
scenario they consider to me most appropriate and will review this from time to time.
Figure 179
Sensitivity Testing of Housing Requirement by LA 2008-2026 (Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)
Local Authority
Housing Type
Dartford
Gravesham
Medway
Swale
65.4%
House Prices and Rental Yields at 2008 levels
Market housing
70.9%
57.1%
79.1%
Intermediate affordable housing
5.2%
7.3%
0.0%
7.3%
Social rented housing
23.9%
35.6%
20.9%
27.4%
Market housing
65.2%
51.2%
78.2%
54.8%
Intermediate affordable housing
10.8%
13.2%
0.9%
17.8%
Social rented housing
23.9%
35.6%
20.9%
27.4%
Market housing
64.1%
47.1%
70.7%
47.1%
Intermediate affordable housing
11.9%
17.3%
8.4%
25.5%
Social rented housing
23.9%
35.6%
20.9%
27.4%
House Prices Rise by 5%, Rental Yield Remain Constant
House Prices Remain at 2008 levels, Rental Yield grow
to 5.5%
House Prices rise by +5% and Rental Yields at 5.5%
Market housing
61.6%
43.4%
60.3%
40.3%
Intermediate affordable housing
14.4%
21.0%
18.9%
32.3%
Social rented housing
23.9%
35.6%
20.9%
27.4%
Page 162
Section 8: Policy Implications
8.22
The RSS states that subject to local circumstances, 35% of housing development should be in the form
of affordable housing. The estimated requirement for social housing according to the SHMA varies
across the Local Authorities. With the exception of Swale, the policy regarding the proportion of
affordable housing required differs from the RSS benchmark in all of the other Councils
8.23
However it is economic viability considerations that define the upper limit for a Local Authority
affordable housing target. A viability assessment has been undertaken in accordance with PPS3
paragraph 29 for Gravesham and Medway Councils. It is part of the SHMA commission but is reported
in a separate volume due to the technical nature of the document. The SHMA, SLAA (strategic land
availability assessment) and the Land Economic Viability Assessment are all individual components of a
Local Authority’s policy regarding the requirement for housing and delivery of it. The evidence
regarding the requirement for housing and the economics of developing land for housing are brought
together here.
8.24
Figure 180 shows the information on a comparative basis as far as it is available at this time. Note also
that different site thresholds apply; Medway seeks affordable housing contributions on developments
of 25 or more units in urban areas (15 in rural areas), other Councils 15 or more units in all cases.
Figure 180
Comparison of the affordable housing target findings between RSS benchmark levels, SHMA and Viability study outp uts and existing Local
Authority policy (RSS, North Kent SHMA, Legend:? Not Known, * Subject to consultation, ** Provisional figure subject to confirmation and
consultation, *** January 2008 preferred options document, **** Current practice)
Dartford
Social
%
Inter
%
RSS
Gravesham
Total
%
Inter
%
35
SHMA
23.9
5.2
29.1
Viability
?
?
?
Existing
Policy
Variable
Variable
30%***
8.25
Social
%
Medway
Total
%
Social
%
Inter
%
35
35.6
7.3
42.9
17.5
35
Total
%
Social
%
Inter
%
35
20.9
18.9
30%**
17.5****
Swale
15
10
Total
%
35
41.8
27.4
7.3
34.7
25%**
?
?
?
25
18
12
30*
The viability assessment outcome will be the starting point for consultation on any new affordable
housing target. However it is clear from Figure 180 regarding Gravesham and Medway that even if this
level of affordable housing is negotiated on every site there will still be a shortfall on SHMA estimates
of the affordable housing requirement. Accordingly, each Local Authority will have the evidence
provided by the SHMA to seek funding from the HCA to provide the affordable housing that will not be
delivered by the planning system.
Intermediate Housing
8.26
A key finding of the SHMA is that the scope for intermediate housing varies across the sub-region. That
said the requirement is generally low compared to other parts of the region. This is due entirely to the
supply of relatively affordable market housing and a different assumed economic trajectory for
Medway. This leads into an interesting discussion regarding SHMA findings and policy. Firstly, if a subregional view is taken, is it reasonable to expect households to migrate to areas of housing that is
affordable to them given the importance of not disrupting education and being close to family and
social networks? Secondly, with large scale housing development underway, taking a long term view,
should it be a feature of all developments in order to achieve a wider choice of housing and contribute
to a more mixed community?
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Interpreting SHMA tenure and size mix findings
8.27
8.28
Here we return to the question of how SHMA outputs regarding tenure and size mix should be
interpreted when formulating policy. The SHMA is obliged to follow PPS3 definitions and Practice
Guidance criteria regarding affordability and space standards. This means that SHMA outputs may not
reflect ‘real world’ demand. Accordingly, SHMA findings should be considered alongside the following
issues when formulating policy. Regarding market housing;

the new build housing market is different to the second hand market. In normal market
conditions new build attracts a premium price over second hand prices. As such it attracts
households with greater income and higher aspirations for design. They tend to purchase more
space than they need; and

this can be regarded as a positive as such people may be business leaders or entrepreneurs
who will benefit the local economy. Also the subsequent chain of transactions may result in
smaller cheaper homes becoming available to the market servicing the requirement for such
homes identified by the SHMA.
Social housing size mix is identified as a policy dilemma;

as noted above much of the requirement is from older people and a spare bedroom is
important to them;

many households living in the social sector live in unsuitable housing as housing allocations are
based upon current rather than future needs;

it is hard to justify allocating more space than is needed to social renters when social housing is
in short supply; and

yet larger dwellings cost more to build and occupy.
8.29
Demographic trends strongly point to considerable need for smaller social rented dwellings to house a
growing population of smaller households irrespective of age. However, policy should reflect the fact
that a relatively small number of large households on low income have few options for securing decent
suitable and affordable housing. They are often in acute housing need and may come from minority
populations. These households should be a major policy priority.
8.30
Overall it is apparent that the policy tactics of enabling the building of larger new homes in the market
and social sectors, some of which are particularly suited to the needs of older people, will enable a
trickle effect of smaller more affordable homes to become available. Further remarks relating to older
people are found later in this section.
Making better use of the stock
8.31
The housing requirement can also be partly met by making better use of the existing affordable housing
stock. Evidence from ‘CORE’ (Para. 6.67) reveals that a proportion of affordable housing is let to
households who can afford more than social rents. There are positive and negative implications of this;

Positive: it can help to dilute the concentrations of poverty that can exist in the remaining
social rented stock (after RTB sales). Neighbourhoods that contain high levels of poverty work
against the aim of achieving social cohesion through balanced communities. These can be self
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Section 8: Policy Implications
perpetuating because of the ‘poverty trap’ partly caused because of the way housing benefit
works, reducing the incentive for households to seek employment. However, in an attempt to
create more settled and sustainable communities within the housing stock, Housing
Management has responded with some important policy initiatives, for example, Choice Based
Lettings (CBL). The aim of this scheme is to enable more settled and cohesive communities to
grow within social housing by allowing tenants a degree of choice in which tenancies they seek.
All of the authorities are currently operating CBL systems. Dartford, Gravesham and Swale are
part of the Kent CBL system and Medway operates its own CBL system and has done so since
2002 when it was chosen as one of the CBL pilot authorities. Furthermore all local authorities
in Kent have agreed via the Kent Housing group ‘Sustainable Communities Protocol’ document
that they will implement local lettings plans which will include a mix of at least 40% of
households that are in work or seeking employment ; and

Negative: the vacancy is not allocated to the household who has no choice but to rely upon
social housing – decent housing that they can afford.
8.32
This prompts a wider debate about ‘who and what is social housing for’ and how it contributes to a
cohesive community whilst meeting the needs of those who have no choice but to seek it. This is
beyond the scope of the SHMA, however, the issues are discussed in the Hills Report; ‘Ends and Means:
The future roles of social housing in England’, (John Hills (The ESRC Research Centre for Analysis of
Social Exclusion (CASE) February 2007)).
8.33
Policies aimed at unblocking turnover of second hand housing might also make an indirect contribution
to the overall housing requirement. It is readily apparent from the SHMA study that in both affordable
and market housing there is both overcrowding and under-occupation. Many households will be
unable to move to more suitable housing either because of affordability or lack of supply. We develop
examples of this in our remarks about older person households below.
8.34
With regard to social housing there is a strong argument for a Local Authority to adopt policies that
specifically address these problems through new build housing and allocation policies.
8.35
A further factor recognised by PPS3 is the issue of converting the existing stock alongside new build
housing as a means of achieving local housing requirements.
Abstract of PPS 3 paragraph 31: Making effective use of existing housing stock
Conversions of existing housing can provide an important source of new housing. Local Planning Authorities
should develop positive policies to identify and bring into residential use empty housing and buildings in line
with local housing and empty homes strategies and, where appropriate, acquire properties under
compulsory purchase procedures.
8.36
The activity of conversion is undertaken by entrepreneurs and small builders in response to market
demand for 1 and 2 bedroom homes. However, this can have local impacts, substantially altering the
character of residential areas and the small businesses that support them. Whether the impact is
positive or negative will depend on the existing character of the neighbourhood. Such conversion work
can also play a part in bringing vacant buildings back into use. The scale of such work is very difficult to
quantify as some conversion work at the cheaper end of the market may be undertaken without
planning consent.
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
Meeting the housing requirement in Rural Areas
8.37
Assessing the need for rural social and affordable housing and delivering it is a specialised subject. The
underlying issue is affordability and this is discussed above. The Right to Buy has severely eroded the
supply of affordable housing. The Taylor review (The Taylor Review of Local Economy and Affordable
Housing (John Taylor MP), (DCLG 2008)) provides an extended discussion about the future of rural
areas and the need for more mixed communities.
8.38
PPS3 provides the mechanism for assessing and meeting rural housing need and the link to the local
community is key.
Abstract of PPS 3 paragraph 30: Rural Exception Site Policy.
This enables small sites to be used, specifically for affordable housing in small rural communities that would
not normally be used for housing because, for example, they are subject to policies of restraint.
Rural exception sites should only be used for affordable housing in perpetuity. A Rural Exception Site policy
should seek to address the needs of the local community by accommodating households who are either
current residents or have an existing family or employment connection, whilst also ensuring that rural areas
continue to develop as sustainable, mixed, inclusive communities.
8.39
The SHMA is unable to estimate affordable housing requirements except at the district council level.
District level housing needs assessments cannot achieve an accurate assessment either. Bottom up
survey work is needed at settlement level to provide an accurate assessment of current local need for
affordable housing. Rural Enablers can play an important role in the robust assessment of local need
and then negotiate its delivery within the planning framework. The case for asking the LPA to use its
rural exceptions policy will be essentially driven by local need and opportunity.
8.40
Parish Councils are arguably the most appropriate level of local administration to undertake local needs
assessment work although Rural Enablers will typically work across a number of parishes. The
challenge is to undertake it consistently across a district if indeed a district wide assessment is needed.
The credit crunch and economic recession
8.41
In 2008 the credit crunch paralysed the housing market and brought part of the Global banking system
to the brink of collapse. Due to severe lending restrictions and house prices in freefall, mass market
demand and supply was reduced almost to standstill. For much of 2008 and the early part of 2009
housing was coming onto the market only from distressed sales. Developers found they had unsold
stock on their hands. Many shed their labour forces and watched their share prices collapse. This also
affected RSLs as funding collapsed where schemes involved cross funding and S106 agreements.
However when consulted, stakeholders suggested that the impact is not as severe in the sub-region.
The uncertainties in North Kent are;

although affordability ratios have improved, less relaxed lending criteria and higher deposits
have prevented many first time buyers from entering the market;

as house prices fall more market housing becomes affordable and the requirement for
intermediate housing reduces, but the reverse is also true;
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Section 8: Policy Implications
8.42

shared ownership customers are seen as sub-prime borrowers by some lenders and this may
affect demand i.e. (they are likely to have low income, little credit history can raise only a small
deposit); and

homelessness and advisory services in Local Authorities and the voluntary sector are under
increasing pressure from people facing re-possession, negative equity and those unable to refinance mortgages or fund higher payments.
Stakeholders believe that the local housing market is resilient to many of these factors;

cheaper priced housing especially new development;

the continued flow of households from London seeking more affordable housing and a better
environment to raise a family; and

a regeneration strategy that gives in-migrants confidence in the area which will lead to further
demand for housing.
Older people
8.43
Section 7 of the SHMA evidences the scale of the policy challenge to ensure that older people can
continue to live independently in safe decent housing that they can afford. The policy challenge cuts
across housing, care and support and health sectors.
8.44
Older people tend to choose to move either as part of a retirement plan (e.g. out-migration to coastal
areas) or when ill health makes it unavoidable. If a move is health related ‘suitable’ housing means a
carefully integrated and bespoke combination of well equipped housing and support. However, most
chose not to move unless absolutely necessary for health or financial reasons.
8.45
Local policy options exist to encourage older people to move to more appropriate accommodation but
little has happened to alter the status quo – ‘staying put’ in current housing.
8.46
The HAPPI report
(Housing our Ageing Population Panel for Innovation, (HCA 2009))
http://www.homesandcommunities.co.uk/public/documents/HAPPI%20Executive%20Summary.pdf
concludes that active demand for more suitable housing from older people could be created if housing
was provided that was in tune with the needs
and preferences of older people. The HAPPI
report also demonstrates that being ‘in tune’
requires a large and complex response across
the whole spectrum of housing and support.
8.47
Clearly the question of how to enable
this response is equally complex and beyond
the scope of the SHMA. However there is a
clear signal from the HAPPI report for readers
of this report encapsulated in the headline
findings taken directly from the report
opposite.
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
8.48
In the wider context of the SHMA it is important to note that part of the future requirement for larger
homes in all tenures might be met from older households downsizing. Clearly there is scope to offer
incentives to social renting tenants such as assisted moves and even cash payments. The approach to
owner occupiers will be more of influencing and advising. Parts of the market are starting to respond
and provide housing that is particularly suited to the requirements of older people. For example,
leasehold schemes and apartments are to be found for sale and for rent that are marketed as
retirement housing. However, the question for planning policy is how to encourage developers to
include such dwellings in their design proposals.
The future housing market and issues to be monitored by revisions to the SHMA
8.49
The following scenario was raised and considered at the stakeholder consultation workshop. The
combined effect of the following factors may have a long term impact on the future housing market
and the socio economic framework within which it operates. Some of these factors should be
monitored in future revisions to the SHMA.
Future international migration and the labour market
8.50
The combined effects of improving national economies and poor exchange rates may mean that the UK
has less to offer migrant workers especially those seeking work in routine occupations. This may play
out as lower unemployment of the UK labour force, labour shortages and loss of demand in the
informal housing market (small shared flats, rooms, Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMO) etc). The
implication is that this could further weaken the sustainability of low cost housing in areas such as
Luton in Medway.
Other changes within the labour market
8.51
Instead of a job for life, employees may find that employment is more short term. This means that the
need to re-locate may be more frequent. Employees may find themselves living further from their
place of work and having to commute over greater distances in order to find work. Either way, this
increasing transience and/or travelling could have a knock-on effect on the sustainability of
communities.
8.52
It is also necessary to emphasise low pay factors. The low value of the Pound (GBP) makes UK tourism
attractive to UK and foreign residents alike. The reality is that the tourist industry and the related retail
industry although buoyant, offers low paid employment opportunities and attracts younger people to
live and work in the area. Retail and tourism is a major strand of the local economic and regeneration
strategy. It must be recognised that at the minimum wage level, household will be unable to afford
market housing and they are also unlikely to accrue adequate pension pots.
Pensions, pension and savings performance
8.53
Private pension yields are currently poor and the average pension pot is around £10,000 (ONS). Few
employers outside the public sector are offering final year salary pension schemes. This could result in
a resurgence of property based investment by entrepreneurs as yields from equities have proved
disappointing.
8.54
Rolling the scenario forward by several decades but within the planning horizon there will exist the
inability of many households to accrue wealth through pensions and housing equity means that these
households may face poor financial prospects in retirement. Under the present support model many
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services for older people are means tested and a contribution is required dependent upon
circumstances for domiciliary care, adaptations etc. Therefore, the local authority will also have to
process a higher number of claims for housing benefit and council tax benefits and means tested claims
for adaptations.
8.55
It also may lead to social cohesion problems in that there will be a contrast between well pensioned
property owning older people and a greater number of people who have been unable to secure these
benefits. Consequently, we have the prospect of an increasing number of older households that may
not be financially self sustaining.
8.56
There is a further factor to consider in addition to the scenario described by stakeholders.
Public spending on infrastructure and regeneration
8.57
Given the huge call on public spending incurred by the Government to prevent the collapse of the
banking sector it is difficult to see how public spending programmes on infrastructure and regeneration
can be sustained. Housing in deprived areas may be increasingly under threat if the recovery is slow
and it is widely believed this will be the last part of the market to recover from the downturn. Major
infrastructure costs such as strategic transport corridors, flood defences etc. may be cancelled or
suspended.
Summary of policy implications and recommendations
Relating to the affordable housing target
8.58
The affordable housing target for each Local Authority should be in accordance with the viability
assessment. There is a further requirement for affordable housing requirement over and above that
which might be delivered through the planning system and Local Authorities should seek funding for
this from the HCA, RSLs and their own resources.
Housing requirement and target issues
8.59
Local Authority policy should take into account that the housing requirement can partly be achieved
through conversions as well as new build, however, a Local Authority may consider introducing
planning policies to protect the character of existing settlements where conversion is occurring on a
significant scale.
8.60
Local Planning Authorities should encourage developers and RSLs to produce specialised housing
especially for older people including leasehold housing and extra care housing for the frail elderly and it
should be a policy priority for delivery within the overall housing requirement.
8.61
Local Authorities should strive to achieve their minimum targets for new build housing in order to
widen the choice of housing available to household groups.
8.62
Local Authorities should monitor delivery against tenure and size mix targets and periodically adjust
targets to take account of short term delivery.
8.63
A Local Authority should adopt policy statements that cover the following issues;
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
adopting planning policies that encourage building of market housing particularly suited to the
needs of elderly people and other special needs groups as informed by the SHMA so that
adaptation costs are minimised and in the case of older people, some larger second hand
homes are available to the market;

adopting planning policies that are flexible, i.e. provision is made within a planning framework
to change detailed targets periodically in response to monitoring and updated SHMA
requirements; and

where appropriate, restricting the conversion of second hand family homes into smaller units
so that new families have more choice within the market and, by doing so, will improve the
flow of smaller homes onto the market that they vacate.
Regarding intermediate affordable housing
8.64
Local Authorities should use SHMA findings to influence the price of intermediate affordable housing in
their locality. (PPS3 paragraph 29, final sentence).
8.65
Local Authorities should consider policy options to address the lack of housing for lower income
households in the intermediate affordable gap;

more social housing supported by allocation policies that house 1 and 2 person households
who are not in urgent housing need;

work with RSLs and the HCA to produce a model for intermediate rented housing. An
alternative model for intermediate rented housing would be to benchmark them against social
rents; and

delivery of housing costing more than market thresholds should not be considered as
contributing to the affordable housing target. However there may be a policy justification for
seeking a proportion of low cost market housing in larger schemes.
Regarding social housing
8.66
Local Authorities should prioritise new family housing to address backlog need and overcrowding.
8.67
Local Authorities should provide incentives for tenants to downsize their housing in order to release
family housing.
Regarding the private rented sector
8.68
Each Local Authority should plan for a growing private rented sector. Growth will increase demand for
Local Authority services in respect of administering benefits, regulating the sector, providing advice and
assistance to tenants if difficulties with their landlord occur or their tenancy ends. Demand will also
increase for rent deposit guarantee schemes whether provided by the Local Authority or the voluntary
sector.
Sustainability
8.69
Councils should consider if better use can be made of the existing housing stock especially the social
housing stock (PPS3 Paragraph 31) and measure the impact of this upon meeting housing
requirements.
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Section 8: Policy Implications
The legacy of the credit crunch and policy implications
8.70
Local Authorities should recognise the legacy of the credit crunch. There are likely to be fewer loans
made to households that might be considered to be sub-prime borrowers and this may accelerate the
structural change in the housing market from owning to renting.
8.71
Local Authorities should take steps to intensify support to the distressed sectors of the housing market
and neighbourhoods by;

monitoring their vital signs (e.g. vacancy rates and duration, prices, crime and anti-social
behaviour levels);

maintaining investment in regeneration schemes where feasible and exploiting where possible
funding streams available from the HCA;

boosting the support for communities and individuals at the neighbourhood level including the
provision of advice and information, street cleaning and action against crime and anti-social
behaviour;

reacting to an increased demand for Local Authority services needed to protect individuals
from poorly maintained buildings and those landlords who do not meet their statutory
obligations; and

consider introducing neighbourhood management, community engagement and home
improvement agencies.
Older People
8.72
Local Authority policy should reflect that older people are not a homogenous group and prioritise
housing development and support services for those that are likely to be frail or suffer long term
limiting illness. Policy aims need to recognise that;

the requirement for alternative housing if unplanned is often urgent and illness related; and

some older people are happy to remain in housing that is larger than they require or can
manage.
8.73
The requirement for specialist and extra care housing should be considered part of the overall housing
requirement.
8.74
Local Authorities should encourage developers and RSLs to ensure that there is more choice of housing
available that is suited to older households and ensure that;

design standards are met (lifetime homes and secure by design are features within the code for
sustainable homes);

some housing is built to wheelchair standard;

there is a mix of social and leasehold tenures; and

dwellings are located in suitable places – near to services and avoiding hilly sites.
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North Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
8.75
Future updates of the SHMA might monitor the impact of any new system of funding residential care
and how this affects the need for extra care or very sheltered accommodation.
8.76
Local Authorities should ensure that they support households in need of means tested support services
such as adaptations;

with regard to equity release, they or a voluntary sector agency should provide impartial advice
and support; and

sufficient funding for adaptations is available for the increasing proportion of households in
rented housing.
Rural housing
8.77
Each Local Authority must consider its response to the challenges stated in the Taylor Review and arrive
at an agreed vision for the future of rural areas as a basis for future policy.
8.78
Local Authorities should review the capacity of the network of rural enablers, their coverage and
effectiveness.
8.79
Local Authorities should consider re-purchasing or leasing of former social housing or cheaper housing
as a more cost effective route to re-stock the affordable housing provision in rural areas.
8.80
The new development at Chattenden of 5,000 new units will effectively create a new town in the
middle of the Rural peninsula. This is likely to have an impact on all of the surrounding villages and
further study into the impact on the rural communities of this development is recommended.
Existing occupiers and their homes
8.81
Each Local Authority should review its policies for assisting households in dealing with unsuitable
housing beyond achieving the standard of decency, i.e. consider investing further in ‘telecare’ based
support, develop its partnership networks with voluntary sector providers, support for informal carers
and review its use of home improvement agencies. They should consider offering low level responsive
support from a local handyperson service.
8.82
Each Local Authority should seek to minimise the need for minor adaptations in the long term through
Part M of the building regulations and the introduction of lifetime homes standards.
8.83
A Local Authority must work with individual communities to identify suitable solutions to overcrowding
taking account of cultural preferences.
Vacant property
8.84
Local Authorities should monitor for long term vacant property and take appropriate action.
8.85
In distressed neighbourhoods;

suitable vacant property will include disused corner shops as a priority for conversion and
change of use to residential; and

the Local Authority should endeavour to involve local residents in drawing up schemes to
address vacant property in a neighbourhood.
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Section 8: Policy Implications
Future Monitoring
8.86
Local Authorities should monitor a number of long term trends and issues reflected in the SHMA
modelling and scenario testing;

long term house price trends;

affordability trends;

structural change in the housing market (the extent to which there is a shift from owner
occupation to renting and the net growth of the private rented sector);

take up of the right to buy and changes to the legislation;

the extent to which housing targets are achieved and the extent to which the housing stock
more closely reflects the requirements of households;

conversion of dwellings to either enlarge them to provide extra bedrooms or sub-divide them
in to smaller dwellings;

migration trends (domestic and international);

the impact of growing student numbers and the future development of the Universities; and

the vital signs of areas considered to be distressed markets (e.g. price, vacancy rates, long term
vacancies, local retail sustainability, crime and stock condition).
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