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The impact of
future population growth on
housing affordability
Housing is a National Asset
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It is a vital part of the national economy and
important generator of employment
It is an important generator of household
wealth for ordinary Australians, whose home
is often their main asset
It is home, providing a place of shelter, a
location in a neighbourhood and community,
and a place to belong.
A National Housing Problem
The majority of Australians are housed in
good quality affordable housing
However
 1.2 million households are in housing stress,
up 20% from 10 years ago
 400,000 households are in extreme housing
stress
 And over 100,000 people were homeless on
census night 2006
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What is Housing Stress?
Housing stress describes a situation where the
cost of housing (either as rental or as a mortgage) is
high relative to household income.
- That’s 1 in 7 Australian households
As a general rule a household spending 30% or
more of its income can be considered under housing
stress, and under "extreme" housing stress if
spending exceeds 50%.
- That’s 1 in every 20 households
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Show Me the Money: Financing More Affordable Housing. Mike Berry 2004
Housing stress by tenure
- of the 1.2m
Public renter
4%
Outright owner
8%
Homepurchaser
36%
Private renter
52%
How has this come about?
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Demand for well located housing from
established owners has fuelled affordability
problems for newly formed and renter
households
Established home owning households have
benefited significantly from increases in the
value of owner-occupied housing as well as
the value of rental housing
A status-quo supported through the tax
system
Demand already outstrips supply
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1700 new dwellings required per annum
Currently turning off 800 lots per year
NT Government’s ‘Housing the Territory’
– a new package of measures in recognition that housing
supply is not matching demand and prices are out of
reach of low to middle income Territorians
 Land release
 New Places to Rent - (Affordable Housing Company)
 New Public Housing
National Decline in Social Housing
From 2008 National Housing Supply Council Report
Darwin region
Population projections
2006
2021
2030
Population
114,000
154,000
+ 34%
177,000
+ 55%
Population
of working
age
Population
over 60
83,000
106,000
+ 27%
119,000
+ 43%
10,000
21,000
+ 107%
28,000
+ 170%
Land Release
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Bellamack, Mitchell, Zuccoli and Johnston =
3670 lots in next 4 years
Muirhead and Berrimah = 2300 lots by 2013
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At 1700 per year by 2013 = a deficit of 1000
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Then Weddell = 10,000 lots from 2014
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Our Housing Market
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Problem of housing and land supply
A focus on home purchase vs rental property
development
Extremely high house prices and rents
Record low vacancy rates
Alack of understanding of affordable housingWho its for
How its developed and managed
Issues for NT
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Home ownership at 44.1% vs the Australian rate
of 71%
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The largest percentage of public housing
dwellings in the country at 6.8%
A
gap between the private market and social
housing
Where to?
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Demand side subsidies have proven to be
problematic- FHOG/ CRA
We need to increase housing supply
We need to increase the supply of land
We need to keep costs as low as possible
We need to reduce planning delays and
make better use of the planning system
We need to be environmentally efficient
We need to develop specialist affordable
housing managers/ developers
So what is affordable housing?
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Housing for rent or purchase that is
affordable to households whose financial
capacity is constrained
Often initiated and owned by non-government
not-for-profit providers
Financed through a mix of public subsidies
and/or planning benefits + private equity or
debt finance
It is not traditional public or social housing
Who needs it?
Low to moderate income households
- NRAS household income limits
= Single person - $41,514
= Couple w/ 3 children $98,696
 Key workers - crucial to economic
development
 Key issues - transport and energy efficiency
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Housing affordability –
A 21st Century problem
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At the economy wide level
Inter-generational inequities
Labour market inefficiency
Potential economic instability
At the Individual level
Increasing cost of home ownership
Declining home ownership rates amongst the young
Large numbers in mortgage stress
Large numbers in housing stress in private rental
Ideas to take forward
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Raising awareness of the impact on
economic growth
Innovation
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Land Trusts/ Shared Equity schemes
Long term supply and affordability strategies
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Developing Planning System Incentives
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NFP Housing Associations
Partnerships
Coordinating the range of policies that affect
housing affordability outcomes
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Thank you
Toni Vine Bromley
Executive Officer
NT Shelter
[email protected]
www.ntshelter.org.au