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06 February 2017 Local Market SA Repo CPI (Inflation) PPI FRA (3-6) R 159 R 186 7.00% 6.80% 7.10% 7.40% 8.66% 8.82% Brent Crude Gold $56.75 p/b $1 215.20 This Past Week All Bond vs All Share (re-based to 100) Rand/USD & Rand/Euro 101 15.0 100 14.5 100 14.0 99 99 13.5 98 13.0 98 27Jan 28Jan 29Jan 30Jan 31Jan 01Feb 02Feb All Share 12.5 03Feb 27Jan 28Jan 29Jan 30Jan 31Jan 01Feb 02Feb Rand/US$ All Bond 03Feb Rand/Euro Past Five Years All Bond vs All Share (re-based to 100) Rand/USD & Rand/Euro 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Jan-12 18.0 14.0 10.0 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 6.0 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Rand/US$ Closing Index Week End 1 week All Share 52265.16 Financials 40587.42 Industrials Jan-17 Rand/Euro 3 YR (Ann.) Ranking 1 week Ranking YTD Ranking 1 YR Ranking 3 YR 9.25% 8.16% 7 3 7 6 7.33% 13.81% 8 9 9 3 -2.22% 16.76% 7.03% 5 10 4 7 -2.71% 7.76% 48.71% -9.81% 10 1 1 10 45417.57 -1.58% 3.51% 5.82% 6.90% 9 2 10 8 77833.96 -0.92% 0.94% 24.71% 13.84% 6 7 3 2 SmallCap 63194.03 1.04% 2.67% 30.15% 13.41% 1 4 2 4 Property 640.12 -0.26% 1.31% 15.07% 18.03% 4 6 5 1 ALBI 541.11 0.14% 1.41% 11.93% 8.58% 3 5 6 5 Cash 358.84 0.14% 0.71% 7.58% 6.68% 2 8 8 9 Indices YTD 1 YR -1.34% 3.28% -1.53% -1.60% 75097.15 -0.84% Resources 19528.74 Top40 MidCap International Market US I-Rate EUR I-Rate UK I-Rate Japan I-Rate UK CPI US CPI EMU CPI US 10-yr German 10-yr 0.75% 0.00% 0.25% -0.10% 1.60% 2.10% 1.80% 2.44% 0.42% This Past Week MSCI World vs MSCI EM (rebased to 100) MSCI World vs Barclays Global Agg Index 101 101 100 100 100 99 99 99 27-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 01-Feb 02-Feb MSCI World 03-Feb 98 27-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 01-Feb 02-Feb MSCI World MSCI EM 03-Feb Barclays Global Agg Past Five Years MSCI World vs MSCI EM (rebased to 100) MSCI World vs JP Morgan Global (rebased to 100) 150 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Jan-12 130 110 90 70 50 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 MSCI EM Jan-17 Jan-13 Jan-14 MSCI World Jan-15 Jan-16 MSCI World Jan-17 JPM Global Closing Index Week End 1 week YTD 1 YR 3 YR (Ann.) Currency 1 week YTD 1 YR 3 YR (Ann.) MSCI World 1805.51 0.12% 3.10% 15.58% 4.14% Rand/US$ -1.49% -3.14% -16.42% 6.08% S&P500 2297.42 0.12% 2.62% 18.41% 8.83% Indices FTSE100 7188.30 0.05% 0.64% 18.15% 3.36% GBP/US$ 0.53% -1.15% 14.13% 31.68% DAX 10615.20 -1.29% 1.79% 18.32% 8.36% EUR/US$ -0.83% -2.46% 0.42% 25.04% Nikkei 18918.20 -2.82% -3.45% 7.99% 8.25% JPN/US$ -2.17% 3.83% -7.05% 3.34% MSCI EM 918.87 0.32% 6.56% 23.78% -0.63% Korea 2073.16 -0.50% 2.30% 8.43% 2.22% WON/US$ -0.50% 2.30% 8.43% 2.22% Aus 5672.50 -1.61% -0.81% 12.18% 2.91% AUS/US$ -1.77% -6.31% -7.80% 4.44% Brazil 64946.69 -1.65% 7.84% 60.74% 10.88% Real/US$ -0.71% -4.18% -22.10% 8.95% India 28240.52 1.28% 6.19% 13.55% 11.24% Rup/US$ -1.35% -1.13% -1.02% 2.34% Local View -neg. sign appreciation of foreign currency relative to US$ -pos. sign depreciation of foreign currency relative to US$ Private sector credit in SA expanded by 5.11% y/y in December 2016, following a 4.60% rise in November while the market expected a growth of 4.70%. Total Vehicle Sales in SA increased to 50 333 in January 2017 from 41 639 in December 2016. This is the first time in over a year that it has exceeded the 50 000 level mark. SA posted a trade surplus of R12.04 billion in December 2016 compared to an upwardly revised R1.68 billion deficit in November 2016. The seasonally adjusted ABSA PMI for SA jumped to 50.9 in January 2017 from 46.7 in the previous month. International View The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 56 in January 2017 from a downwardly revised 54.5 in December and well above market expectations of 55. Non-Farm Payrolls in the US increased by 227 000 in January 2017, higher than the upwardly revised 157 000 in December and above market expectations of 175 000. Employment increased in retail, trade, construction and financial activities. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in January 2017 from 4.7% in the previous month and above market expectations of 4.7%. Private businesses in the US hired 246 000 workers in January 2017 compared to a downwardly revised 151 000 in December 2016. The US Fed kept the target range for its federal funds steady at 0.50% to 0.75% during its February 2017 meeting. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold the Bank Rate at a record low of 0.25% and to leave the stock of purchased assets at £435 billion on the 2nd of February 2017. In the Euro Area, GDP expanded by 1.8% y/y in Q4 2016. The jobless rate in the Euro Area declined to 9.6% in December 2016 from a downwardly revised 9.7% in November and below market expectations of 9.8%. The final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index came in at 54.4 in January 2017, unchanged from the previous month. In Asia, retail sales in Japan increased by 0.6% y/y in December 2016, following a 1.7% rise in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 1.3% gain. Consumer confidence in Japan edged up to 43.2 in January 2017 from 43.1 in December 2016, but missing market estimates of 43.7. In China, the official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 51.3 in January 2017 from 51.4 in December 2016, while markets expected 51.2. Australia's trade surplus widened by 72% to AUD 3.51 billion in December 2016 from an upwardly revised AUD 2.04 billion surplus in November and beating market expectations of AUD 2.20 billion. Economic releases for the Week: Local releases SA: Foreign Exchange Reserves; Gold & Mining Production US: Balance of Trade, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, UK releases: Halifax House Price Index, (Euro Area), Retail PMI, (Germany), Industrial Production, Balance of Trade, PPI, Consumer Confidence; Asia releases: Caixin Composite (CN), RBA Interest Rate Decision (AU) India Interest Rate (IN). Glacier Financial Solutions (Pty) Ltd, l A member of the Sanlam Group | Private Bag X5 l Tyger Valley 7536 l Email: [email protected] Tel +27 21 917 9002 l Fax +27 21 947 9210 l Web www.glacier.co.za | Reg No 1999/025360/07 l Licensed Financial Services Provider l Refer to our website for details of the directors This document is intended for use by intermediaries. The information contained in this document has been recorded and arrived at by Glacier Financial Solutions (Pty) Ltd in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information is provided for information purposes only and to assist the financial intermediary to submit an investment proposal to the client and should not be construed as the render ing of investment advice to clients. Sources: Daily Dispatch, Reuters, Business Day, Nedbank Economic Unit, Bloomberg, MoneyWeb, Trading Economics