Download Climate and Health in Relation to Global Change: Overview

Climate and Health in Relation to
Global Change: Overview
Joan L. Aron, Ph.D.
Science Communication Studies
IAI Training Institute on Climate and Health in the Americas
University of the West Indies
Kingston, Jamaica
November 7, 2005 – November 18, 2005
Outline
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Global Change and Human Dimensions
Adverse Health Effects of Climate
Variability and Change
Steps to Providing Better Tools &
Approaches for Adaptation Strategies
Ecosystem Change
and Public Health
Human Population Growth
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World population grew from 1.6 billion to
6.1 billion in the twentieth century.
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1
2
3
4
5
6
billion
billion
billion
billion
billion
billion
in
in
in
in
in
in
1804
1927
1960
1974
1987
1999
Urbanization
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1950: 30% of population is urban
2000: 47% of population is urban
2007: Urban population will equal rural
population.
Mega-cities will be more numerous and
larger.
Most growth over the next 50 years will be
in cities in poor countries.
Migration
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The end of the cold war has led to more
population movements.
The breakup of empires has created large,
dislocated, insecure minorities.
Media attention focuses on migration
issues in Western nations.
Most international refugee and migration
flows occur among developing nations.
Uneven Population Growth
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In less-developed countries, populations
are growing rapidly and becoming younger
on average.
In most industrialized countries, the trend
is one of either slow or negative growth.
The percentage of the population over 60
in wealthy countries will double from 16
percent in 1990 to 32 percent by 2030.
Uneven Economic Growth
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World real gross domestic product (GDP)
increased 20 to 40 times over the 20th
century.
Yet about 1.2 billion live in absolute
poverty.
Afflictions of affluence are more common
causes of death in more developed
nations than in less developed nations.
Globalization
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The industrial revolution has spread from Europe
to Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Notion of humanity dominant over Nature.
The growth of industrial economies fostered the
emergence of large and polluted cities as the
centers of industrial activity.
This economic transition was facilitated by
technologies based on fossil fuels.
Natural Resources and Environment
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Atmospheric carbon dioxide has risen
since the industrial revolution.
Annual global emissions of carbon dioxide
from the burning of fossil fuel has
quadrupled since 1950.
Frontier Forests Under Threat
South America
Energy Resources
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Only a decade ago, China was a net exporter of
oil. Now, it is the third-largest importer, behind
only the United States and Japan.
Goodman, Peter S. China’s Dark Days and
Darker Nights: Industrial Growth Exceeds Supply
of Electrical Power. Washington Post, January 5,
2004
Food and Water Resources
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A sufficient amount of food is now being
produced to feed the world, but around
800 million are under-nourished due to
poverty, political instability, economic
inefficiency and social inequity.
The quest for new sources of water, food
and other resources is forcing migration
into marginal and previously remote areas.
Selected Environmental Treaties
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Framework Convention on Climate Change
Montreal Protocol on Substances that
Deplete the Ozone Layer
Stockholm Convention on Persistent
Organic Pollutants
Convention to Combat Desertification
Convention on Biological Diversity
Emerging Infectious Diseases
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Emerging infectious diseases are a major
threat to human health and prosperity in
all countries, rich and poor.
Explanatory factors are issues of
population, globalization and environment.
Climate Sensitive Health Effects
Global Assessments
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Heat waves, cold waves
Wind storms, floods
Drought, food security and nutrition
Food safety
Air quality and disease; Aeroallergens
Water and disease
Occupational health
Rodent- and vector-borne diseases
Emerging infectious diseases
Climate Sensitive Health Effects
Training Institute Foci
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Infectious Disease
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Mosquito-borne (malaria, dengue, different kinds of
viral encephalitis)
Algal blooms (oceans / estuaries)
Water-borne (diarrheal)
Wind Storms and Floods
Drought, Food Security and Nutrition
Air Quality and Disease
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, UV Exposure
Training Institute
Pedagogical Approach
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Focus on providing science, applications, and
project development for a few topics.
Highlight people who work as a team (e.g., IAI
CRN/CHIEX project).
Take advantage of local setting (Kingston area)
to provide context – field trips on dengue and
natural hazards.
Discuss how to apply concepts to other health
issues and countries in the Americas.
Critical Thinking
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What does climate sensitive mean?
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How much does climate affect the disease?
and on what time scale?
How does climate interact with other factors?
Long Time Scales
Pitfalls in Extrapolation
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Ecological responses to diurnal, seasonal,
interannual or decadal climate variability
may not always be indicative of responses
to long-term climate change.
Anthropogenic stresses on ecosystems are
likely to change more significantly over the
course of decades to centuries than over
seasonal to interannual time scales.
How do we take steps
to provide better tools
and approaches for
adaptation strategies?
Climate and Health Effects in the
Caribbean (PAHO/WHO Workshop,
Barbados, 2002): OBJECTIVES
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Generate awareness of the impact of
climate variability and change on health.
Understand how climate data are and
could/should be used in health planning.
Climate and Health Effects in the
Caribbean (PAHO/WHO Workshop,
Barbados, 2002): OBJECTIVES
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Identify the elements of a framework for
proactive health/climate actions to assess
vulnerabilities and implement mitigation and
adaptation strategies in relation to adverse
health impacts of climate variability and change.
Discuss and define the roles of health and
climate professionals in the implementation of
the framework for proactive health/climate
actions.
Climate and Health Effects in the
Caribbean (PAHO/WHO Workshop,
Barbados, 2002): OBJECTIVES
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Identify key partners and assess institutional/
organizational arrangements that must be
strengthened and what new entities must be put
in place at the national and regional levels to
assess vulnerabilities and implement mitigation
and adaptation strategies in relation to adverse
health impacts of climate variability and change.
Identify follow-on capacity-building activities to
address climate variability and change and
health nationally and regionally.
Training Institute
Target Audience
What capacity are we building?
knowledge-action system
researchers
policy-makers
Thank You!