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Risks and Effects of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Peoples and Ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico Region Chris Beal ([email protected]) Jessica DeBiasio ([email protected]) Peter Spartos ([email protected]) Sarah Wilkins ([email protected]) Problem Statement: Sea level rise across the next century will have adverse effects on human populations and ecosystems in low-lying coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico. Goal/Purpose Statement: We intend to characterize the risk of impacts, as a result of sea level rise, on ecosystems, cultures/societies, and economies in low-lying areas of the Gulf of Mexico region. In addition, we intend to explore the management options available to deal with these risks. Justification: Areas of high population along the Gulf Coast are vulnerable to rising sea levels. A rise in sea level will greatly affect economic, ecological and social systems of the Gulf Coast. These consequences include human displacement, alteration of habitat, loss of essential natural, built, social and cultural capital, destruction of various ecosystems, and the breakdown of economic systems dependent upon those ecological functions. This issue is essential to address due to these anticipated negative consequences to property and human populations. Global sea level rise has increased by approximately 2mm per year for the last century, and is predicted to rise at an increasing rate. The Fourth International Panel on Climate Change predicts a range from 18-38 to 26-58cm in the rise of global average sea level by 2100.1 One global model calculates that with a 6 meter rise (the highest scale on the model), nearly 0.5 billion people could be effected worldwide, while over 19 million have the same potential in the Southeastern United States alone. This number is only a small percentage of the total potentially affected, but significant cultural and political influences exist to make this issue of increased importance to the US. Framework focus: An ecological risk assessment approach to the issue of sea level rise is essential to the development of appropriate precautions and actions in anticipation of all potential consequences, such as humanitarian crises due to the sudden onset of effects of this seemingly gradual process. This project is designed to characterize the effects on coastal peoples and ecosystems associated with sea level rise in the Gulf of Mexico region. This 1 EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union. Risk of Rising Sea Level to Population and Land Area. Vol. 88, no. 9, pp.105-107. 27 February 2007. will include an analysis of risk estimations and uncertainties based upon existing available data. Literature Review: Day J. W.; Pont D.; Hensel P. F.; Ibanez C. Impacts of sea-level rise on deltas in the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean : the importance of pulsing events to sustainability. Estuaries. 1995, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 636-647 (2 p.1/4). Retrieved on 7 March 2007 from source: http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=2897878 Subsidence of deltas leads to additive effects of sea-level rise in areas such as Louisiana, where low lying deltas are subject to acceleration of eustatic sea-level rise. Water logging caused by decreases in sedimentation in wetlands due to man made structures accelerates subsidence and in turn amplifies the cumulative effects of sea-level rise. Coastal wetlands act as a buffer, dampening storm surges as well as regular tides which protect the inner coast. Galbraith, H.; Jones, R.; Park, R.; Clough, J.; Herrod-Julius, S.; Harrington, B.; Page, G. Global climate change and sea level rise: Potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds. Waterbirds, 25(2): 173-183; June, 2002. Projected major inter-tidal habitat loss at four sites (Willapa Bay, Humboldt Bay, San Francisco Bay, and Delaware Bay) due to sea level rise range between 20% and 70% of their current inter-tidal habitat. Such losses might jeopardize the ability of these sites to continue to support their current shorebird numbers. The most severe losses are likely to occur at sites where the coastline is unable to move inland because of steep topography or seawalls. Installation of additional coastal protection barriers at this site and others is likely to exacerbate the rate and extent of inter-tidal habitat loss. Ning, Z. H., R.E. Turner, T. Doyle, and K.K. Abdollahi. 2003. Preparing for a Changing Climate: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change: Gulf Coast Region. U.S. Climate Change Research Program, published by the Gulf Coast Climate Change Assessment Council (GCRCC) and Louisiana State University (LSU) Graphic Services. Retrieved on 6 March 2007 from source: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/gulfcoast/gulfcoast-brief.pdf This report focuses on sea level rise in the Gulf Coast region. The five main impacts of sea level rise include erosion, inundation, salinization, increased flooding and storm damage, and rising water tables. The report mentions that the most serious consequence of climate change is the risk of sea level rise in response to melting of polar ice and the thermal expansion of warmer waters. Projected impacts of sea level rise include loss of barrier islands and wetlands that protect coastal communities. This report mentions two models: the Hadley model which has predicted an average sea-level rise of 8.4 inches over the next 100 years in the Gulf Coast region, and the Canadian model, which has predicted a rise of 15.6 to 19.2 inches over the next century. Rahmstorf, Stefan, Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise. Science (Washington). Vol. 315, no. 5810, pp. 368-370. 19 Jan 2007. Retrieved on 6 March 2007 from CSA Illumina. A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level. Thieler, E.R., and Hammar-Klose, E.S., 2000. National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Future Sea-Level Rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast. U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 00-179, 1 sheet. Retrieved on 6 March 2007 from source: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2000/of00-179/ Predicting the physical response of coastal areas to sea level rise is difficult to determine. Coastal planning and decision making lack consideration of the potential consequences of sea level rise related problems (i.e. erosion, flooding, and storm damage). Williams, K; Ewel, KC; Stumpf, RP; Putz, FE; Workman, TW. Sea-level rise and coastal forest retreat on the west coast of Florida, USA. Ecology. Vol. 80, no. 6, pp. 2045-2063. Sep 1999. This document investigates patterns, rates, and mechanisms of forest replacement by salt marsh in relation to sea-level rise on the west coast of Florida. The geomorphology of this region typifies that of lowlying, limestone coastlines considered highly susceptible to sea-level rise. Proposed Effort: In an effort to review the scope of the problem, we intend to find documents that explore the effects of sea level rise on coastal areas in the Gulf of Mexico region and assess their applicability to this project. Different reports predict different levels of sea level rise and also omit different factors due to limited data; therefore discrepancies between documents must be explored. After choosing an appropriate model for sea level rise and explaining its significance, we will then characterize the potential risks of sea level rise to the Gulf of Mexico region. Taking the most pertinent risks, we will assess several alternatives for addressing sea level rise. These alternatives will deal specifically with steps the Gulf of Mexico region can take to anticipate sea level rise. Effort Assignment: Jessica: Summary, problem statement and background Chris: Goal/purpose and objectives Peter: Approach, title page, paper formatting, and PowerPoint creation Sarah: conclusion, recommendations and literature citation Everyone: Findings