Download Risks and Effects of Sea Level Rise on Coastal People and

Risks and Effects of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Peoples
and Ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico Region
Chris Beal ([email protected])
Jessica DeBiasio ([email protected])
Peter Spartos ([email protected])
Sarah Wilkins ([email protected])
Problem Statement:
Sea level rise across the next century will have adverse effects on human populations and
ecosystems in low-lying coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico.
Goal/Purpose Statement:
We intend to characterize the risk of impacts, as a result of sea level rise, on ecosystems,
cultures/societies, and economies in low-lying areas of the Gulf of Mexico region. In
addition, we intend to explore the management options available to deal with these risks.
Justification:
Areas of high population along the Gulf Coast are vulnerable to rising sea levels. A rise
in sea level will greatly affect economic, ecological and social systems of the Gulf Coast.
These consequences include human displacement, alteration of habitat, loss of essential
natural, built, social and cultural capital, destruction of various ecosystems, and the
breakdown of economic systems dependent upon those ecological functions.
This issue is essential to address due to these anticipated negative consequences to
property and human populations. Global sea level rise has increased by approximately
2mm per year for the last century, and is predicted to rise at an increasing rate. The
Fourth International Panel on Climate Change predicts a range from 18-38 to 26-58cm in
the rise of global average sea level by 2100.1 One global model calculates that with a 6
meter rise (the highest scale on the model), nearly 0.5 billion people could be effected
worldwide, while over 19 million have the same potential in the Southeastern United
States alone. This number is only a small percentage of the total potentially affected, but
significant cultural and political influences exist to make this issue of increased
importance to the US.
Framework focus:
An ecological risk assessment approach to the issue of sea level rise is essential to the
development of appropriate precautions and actions in anticipation of all potential
consequences, such as humanitarian crises due to the sudden onset of effects of this
seemingly gradual process. This project is designed to characterize the effects on coastal
peoples and ecosystems associated with sea level rise in the Gulf of Mexico region. This
1
EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union. Risk of Rising Sea Level to
Population and Land Area. Vol. 88, no. 9, pp.105-107. 27 February 2007.
will include an analysis of risk estimations and uncertainties based upon existing
available data.
Literature Review:
Day J. W.; Pont D.; Hensel P. F.; Ibanez C. Impacts of sea-level rise on deltas in the Gulf
of Mexico and the Mediterranean : the importance of pulsing events to sustainability.
Estuaries. 1995, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 636-647 (2 p.1/4). Retrieved on 7 March 2007 from
source: http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=2897878
Subsidence of deltas leads to additive effects of sea-level rise in areas
such as Louisiana, where low lying deltas are subject to acceleration of
eustatic sea-level rise. Water logging caused by decreases in
sedimentation in wetlands due to man made structures accelerates
subsidence and in turn amplifies the cumulative effects of sea-level
rise. Coastal wetlands act as a buffer, dampening storm surges as well
as regular tides which protect the inner coast.
Galbraith, H.; Jones, R.; Park, R.; Clough, J.; Herrod-Julius, S.; Harrington, B.; Page, G.
Global climate change and sea level rise: Potential losses of intertidal habitat for
shorebirds. Waterbirds, 25(2): 173-183; June, 2002.
Projected major inter-tidal habitat loss at four sites (Willapa Bay,
Humboldt Bay, San Francisco Bay, and Delaware Bay) due to sea
level rise range between 20% and 70% of their current inter-tidal
habitat. Such losses might jeopardize the ability of these sites to
continue to support their current shorebird numbers. The most severe
losses are likely to occur at sites where the coastline is unable to move
inland because of steep topography or seawalls. Installation of
additional coastal protection barriers at this site and others is likely to
exacerbate the rate and extent of inter-tidal habitat loss.
Ning, Z. H., R.E. Turner, T. Doyle, and K.K. Abdollahi. 2003. Preparing for a Changing
Climate: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change: Gulf Coast
Region. U.S. Climate Change Research Program, published by the Gulf Coast Climate
Change Assessment Council (GCRCC) and Louisiana State University (LSU) Graphic
Services. Retrieved on 6 March 2007 from source:
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/gulfcoast/gulfcoast-brief.pdf
This report focuses on sea level rise in the Gulf Coast region. The five
main impacts of sea level rise include erosion, inundation, salinization,
increased flooding and storm damage, and rising water tables. The
report mentions that the most serious consequence of climate change is
the risk of sea level rise in response to melting of polar ice and the
thermal expansion of warmer waters. Projected impacts of sea level
rise include loss of barrier islands and wetlands that protect coastal
communities. This report mentions two models: the Hadley model
which has predicted an average sea-level rise of 8.4 inches over the
next 100 years in the Gulf Coast region, and the Canadian model,
which has predicted a rise of 15.6 to 19.2 inches over the next century.
Rahmstorf, Stefan, Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise.
Science (Washington). Vol. 315, no. 5810, pp. 368-370. 19 Jan 2007. Retrieved on 6
March 2007 from CSA Illumina.
A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level
rise to global mean surface temperature. When applied to future
warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to
1.4 meters above the 1990 level.
Thieler, E.R., and Hammar-Klose, E.S., 2000. National Assessment of Coastal
Vulnerability to Future Sea-Level Rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico
Coast. U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 00-179, 1 sheet. Retrieved on 6 March
2007 from source: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2000/of00-179/
Predicting the physical response of coastal areas to sea level rise is
difficult to determine. Coastal planning and decision making lack
consideration of the potential consequences of sea level rise related
problems (i.e. erosion, flooding, and storm damage).
Williams, K; Ewel, KC; Stumpf, RP; Putz, FE; Workman, TW. Sea-level rise and coastal
forest retreat on the west coast of Florida, USA. Ecology. Vol. 80, no. 6, pp. 2045-2063.
Sep 1999.
This document investigates patterns, rates, and mechanisms of forest
replacement by salt marsh in relation to sea-level rise on the west coast
of Florida. The geomorphology of this region typifies that of lowlying, limestone coastlines considered highly susceptible to sea-level
rise.
Proposed Effort:
In an effort to review the scope of the problem, we intend to find documents that explore
the effects of sea level rise on coastal areas in the Gulf of Mexico region and assess their
applicability to this project. Different reports predict different levels of sea level rise and
also omit different factors due to limited data; therefore discrepancies between
documents must be explored. After choosing an appropriate model for sea level rise and
explaining its significance, we will then characterize the potential risks of sea level rise to
the Gulf of Mexico region. Taking the most pertinent risks, we will assess several
alternatives for addressing sea level rise. These alternatives will deal specifically with
steps the Gulf of Mexico region can take to anticipate sea level rise.
Effort Assignment:
Jessica: Summary, problem statement and background
Chris: Goal/purpose and objectives
Peter: Approach, title page, paper formatting, and PowerPoint creation
Sarah: conclusion, recommendations and literature citation
Everyone: Findings