Download June 21, 2016 by Steve Freed, VP of Research Corn, soybeans and

June 21, 2016
by Steve Freed, VP of Research
Corn, soybeans and wheat closed sharply lower. Favorable US 2 week weather outlook may
have triggered the selloff. Brexit/Bremain is still the focus in Stocks, the dollar, gold and
Crude.
Soybeans turned lower on a favorable US Midwest 2 week weather outlook. The current
maps suggest 3 rain events over most of the Midwest over the next 7-10 days. Best
amounts could be in E IA, N IL, N IN and OH. Rain is also expected in the rest of IA, MN, IL
and IN. USDA est the US 2016 soybean crop 73 pct good/ex vs 65 ly. USDA dropped ratings
in IA,IN,OH, MO,MN, KS and OH. US 2016 soybean crop is waiting for a good rain. Farmer
selling has slowed. SX is near 11.10. Range was 11.10-11.40. 11.00 could be key support.
US cash barge basis remains strong. USDA announced additional US soybean sales to China
and unknown. USDA Acreage and June 1 stocks report is on June 30. Most look for USDA est
June 1 US soybean stocks near 845 mil bu vs 627 ly. USDA currently est US 2016 soybean
acres near 82.2 vs 82.7 last year. Most est are near 84.0.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider
whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is
provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author
of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The
information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any
decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way
deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.
Corn futures turned sharply lower on a favorable US Midwest 2 week weather outlook. The
current maps suggest 3 rain events over most of the Midwest over the next 7-10 days. Best
amounts could be in E IA, N IL, N IN and OH. Rain is also expected in the rest of IA, MN, IL
and IN. US corn barge basis is firm on higher freight cost. USDA est US corn crop 75 pct
good/ex vs 71 ly. IA,IN,MO,KS, OH ratings were down from last week. MM and south were
up. US farmer is a reluctant seller of corn until more is known about pollination weather.
CZ is near 4.08. Range was 4.08-4.35. CZ sliced through 20 day moving ave support near
4.25. 4.00 could be key support. USDA Acreage and June 1 stocks report is on June 30. Most
look for USDA est June 1 US corn stocks near 4,540 mil bu vs 4,453 ly. USDA currently est
US 2016 corn acres near 93.6 vs 88.0 last year. Most est are near 92.5.
7 day US Midwest rainfall outlook map
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider
whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is
provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author
of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The
information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any
decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way
deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.
Wheat futures followed corn prices lower. There is too much wheat in the World. USDA est
US winter wheat harvest 25 pct vs 19 ly. KS yields are above est. Protein is below ave. USDA
also est US spring wheat crop 76 pct good/ex vs 71 ly. ND is 82 vs 79. Globally, EU summer
crops are rated above ave, Russia and Ukraine crops are also rated above ave, China crops
so far are ok, India crops are down due to weak monsoon and Australia is off to a mostly
good start. Some est World 2016/17 wheat crop near 732.0 mmt vs USDA 730.8. USDA
Acreage and June 1 stocks report is on June 30. Most look for USDA est June 1 US wheat
stocks near 998 mil bu vs 752 ly. USDA currently est US 2016 wheat acres near 49.6 vs 54.6
last year. Most est are near 50.0. WU is near 4,72. Range was 4.71-4.90. KWU is near 4.52.
MWU is near 5.34.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider
whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is
provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author
of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The
information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any
decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way
deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.