Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Tuesday, August 01, 2017 Corn Old Crop (futures month, Soybean Wheat CN5 -.08 $3.57 SN5 -.02 $9.50 WN5 -.18 $5.13 CZ5 -.08 $3.75 SX5 -0.03 $9.22 WN6 -.17 $5.62 change, settle price) New Crop (futures month, change, settle price) It was an active trade day in the commodity markets with corn, wheat, and soybeans all closing in the red. Volume increased today in part due to active farmer selling, reducing cash risk ahead of the World Supply and Demand Estimate Report. Numbers out of the report provided few surprises to the trade but do confirm large US and global grain and soy stocks. Without any major weather concerns, this confirmation will continue to challenge any market rallies. The report numbers by commodity. Corn focus should be directed to the world stocks number for 14/15 and 15/16 crop years. At 197.0 and 195.2 million metric tons respectively, both numbers were above the high end of the trade estimates. These increases resulted primarily from higher South America crop sizes. Minor adjustments to US corn ending stocks for both crop years were made from a reported lower corn for ethanol usage. Data for the USDA’s adjustment came from April’s crushing data, although a future revision could be expected as we have seen a significant increase in ethanol production since the May 1st low. However, USDA has not made any adjustments for reduced feed demand following avian influenza. Soybean balance sheet adjustments were made to 14/15 and 15/16 ending stocks. Ending stocks of 330 million for 14/15 were within the range of trade expectations. 15/16 endings stocks of 475 million was within the trade range as well. Adjustments resulted from increased crush and export demand. US crush demand remains strong; cash basis has not been greatly affected by the farm stocks reported in the last quarterly stocks report being historically large. In fact, processors have been forced to do more work than expected to source soybeans. Adjustments to the wheat balance sheet were minor and within trade estimates. World stocks were reduced slightly for both crop years from the May report but near average trade guess. US all winter wheat production rose about 33 million bushels from the May report and at 1.505 billion bushels was above the high end of trade expectations. Soft red winter wheat production was however down slightly from May’s estimates. The real highlight continues to be the ample global supplies of all three commodities. Corn, wheat, and soybean stocks rose nearly 12% year over year in 14/15 from 13/14. Stocks are projected to rise in 15/16 another 2%. AS mentioned, weather is not creating any lasting market incentive presently but should be watched closely. The present El Nino pattern has a history to produce global weather extremes, and action in these markets can shift very quickly. To Michigan growers, be diligent in identifying you price objectives in these markets.