Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Millennium target to halve the proportion of people lacking access to safe drinking water by 2015, together with a complementary target on sanitation Proportion of urban population with access to improved sanitation; Proportion of population (urban and rural) with sustainable access to an improved water source. By 2015, reduce by half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water One billion people lack access to safe drinking water, 2.4 billion to adequate sanitation. To achieve this target, an additional 1.5 billion people will require access to some form of improved water supply by 2015, that is an additional 100 million people each year (or 274,000/day) until 2015. The main indicators for progress towards this goal are: - Proportion of population (urban and rural) with sustainable access to an improved water source. Challenges Meeting Basic Needs Having access to safe and sufficient water and sanitation are now recognized as basic human rights. Being able to wash one's hands and drink clean water can have a major impact on family hygiene and health. Women play an especially important role in this process. Because people who are poor are most likely to get sick, and ill health perpetuates poverty, it triggers a vicious cycle that hampers economic and social development. Protecting Ecosystems The possible negative impact of human activity on the environment must be considered when managing water resources in a sustainable way. It is not enough to draw water from nature for use in agriculture, industry, and everyday life without also taking account of nature's needs. Animals and plants, landscapes and wetlands need clean water too. Wastewater must be recycled so that pollution is minimized. Special areas like estuaries, which play an important part in supporting the delicate and complex food chain of many birds and fish, may require total protection. Human beings must learn to respect the resource base on which life ultimately depends and to see land and water as two sides of the same coin. For this reason, decisions should be taken at river basin level, Water and Cities By 2030, over 60% (nearly 5 billion people) of the world's population will be living in urban areas. As a result, competing demands from domestic, commercial, industrial and peri-urban agriculture are putting enormous pressure on freshwater resources. In their bid to meet soaring demand, cities are going deeper into ground water sources and farther to surface water sources, at costs - including environmental costs - which are clearly unsustainable. Cities also face the challenge of securing access to safe water for the urban poor, and of cutting down on wasteful and illegal uses. The urban water crisis can only be met by changes in management and governance that lead to more sustainable use of the shared resource. Securing the Food Supply The challenge here is to increase food production and security by getting 'more crop per drop', while also devising ways to ensure a more equitable allocation of water for food production. Since about 80% of the world's water is used for irrigation, even small changes in the way crops are planted, watered and harvested can make a big difference. Better ways to enhance the productivity of rainfed agriculture must also be developed. Poor populations are the most vulnerable, and the strain will only increase in the face of demographic pressure. Water and Industry Industry is both a major user of water resources and a major contributor to economic and social development. To move towards sustainability, industries must be assured of having an adequate supply of water. In return, industries should undertake to see that water used in industrial processes is used efficiently and not returned to nature as untreated waste that pollutes the environment. Technology is important for recycling of water, and a variety of economic and legislative measures can also provide incentives for responsible management. Water and Energy Tremendous increases of energy and water will be required in the near future as the world's population increases from 6 to over 9 billion. Even now, some 2 billion people do not have access to a reliable supply of electricity. Somehow capacity must be increased to meet this demand, and at the same time production and use of energy must be made more efficient. To be sustainable, however, these objectives should be achieved without energy production having any negative impact on either human health or the environment. As for industry, the tools available include technological fixes, development of alternative or renewable energy sources, and a judicious mix of management options that include economic incentives and legislation. Priorities in developed and developing countries may be very different. Managing Risks Water related hazards, such as floods, droughts, tropical storms, erosion and various kinds of pollution should be factored into any integrated approach to water resource management and policy. Although it is the world's poor who suffer the most when exposed to such dangers, everyone's security is at stake. One way to minimize risk is to develop more capacity in the monitoring and forecasting of extreme events. With this information, appropriate early warning systems and infrastructure can be installed, and new planning strategies devised. It is also necessary to ensure that climate variability and change have their place in the total picture. Sharing Water Resources Competition over scarce or poorly allocated resources can lead to tension and insecurity. Therefore decision-makers, communities, governments and regions must strive to develop policies that allow for sharing among all stakeholders. Many different interests are at stake and equitable solutions must be found: between cities and rural areas, rich and poor, arid lands and wet lands, public and private, infrastructure and natural environments; mainstream and marginal groups, local stakeholders and centralized authorities. At the regional and international level, many river basin and aquifer authorities are developing integrated approaches that stress cooperation of the shared resource. A UNESCO programme called (From Potential Conflict to Cooperation Potential) is Valuing Water This whole question is among the most controversial of all the challenges identified in the Ministerial Declaration emerging from the Second World Water Forum in the Hague. In many societies the whole notion of putting a price tag on someting as intrinsically valuable as water is unacceptable. Yet services must be paid for. There is also much disagreement about how to balance the costs of provision and wastewater treatment with the goal of equity and finding ways to meet the needs of poor and vulnerable populations. Creative new partnerships between the public and private sectors should be developed, along with accounting and taxation systems that take full account of environmental and social factors. Ensuring the Knowledge Base This target takes account of the whole range of technical and non-technical information and knowledge, and seeks ways for all societies to benefit from their development, exchange and dissemination. National authorities and resource managers need sound scientific data on which to base their projections and decision-making. Stakeholders need access to other kinds of information and educational opportunities if they are to understand and participate in the process as responsible citizens. With the development of modern telecommunications and the global marketplace, it is more than ever necessary to ensure that every community and country play a role in building a more sustainable future. Governing Water Wisely This challenge area is particularly complex and sensitive. It moves the debate about sustainability beyond water management issues and into processes of political, social and institutional change. Many countries agree that good governance means allowing every sector of society to participate in the decisionmaking process and that the interests of all stakeholders should be taken into account. However, mechanisms for doing so are not always in place, even if decentralization and the increasing involvement of civil society are worldwide trends. International cooperation and assistance may play a crucial role particularly in developing countries - by helping to strengthen institutional capacity. GLOBAL SCENARIOS ON WATER - PROPOSAL These specific water variables will be computed as part of quantitative scenarios (if feasible) and include: Changing average (annual) water availability as affected by changes in climate, land use, and water abstractions Changing frequency of hydrological extreme events (floods and droughts) Changing average water use Changing river connectivity (dams and reservoirs) Changing river morphology Changing ecological (biological and chemical) conditions of aquatic ecosystems including aquatic & riparian biodiversity Changing land use Changing forms and impacts of water governance They should have two time frames: �� short (up to 2015 or 2020) in order to address the issue of the Millennium Development Goals and other policies relevant to the next decade �� long (up to 2100) to take into account the impacts of long term changes in climate, land use and socio-economic driving forces.5 9. What is the Audience for New Global Scenarios? New global water scenarios should be targeted to a wide audience, including: Decision-makers at different levels. Decisions regarding water availability and water use are being made everyday at the local, national, and international scales. Stakeholders. Many people around the world are affected (positively or negatively) by changes in water accessibility and use, and many different social and economic actors (governmental, nongovernmental, and private) are involved in water issues. Scenario exercises can provide a neutral arena for identifying and discussing water issues from different viewpoints and interests. The scientific community concerned with changes in the earth system. The future condition of the global water system will be affected by climate and other global changes. In turn, changes in the global water system will have a profound impact on other parts of the earth system such as global patterns of climate, vegetation and land use. Scenarios can provide a vehicle for better anticipating future changes in the global water system. International organizations concerned with water. Since the lifetime of some water infrastructure is several decades, decisions today must factor in expected long-term changes in the global water system. Scenarios can provide information about the magnitude and nature of these changes and global ‘hot spots’ of change. General public and students at the university- and other levels. Global water scenarios provide an excellent device for envisioning the future and understanding the many complicated factors that will influence future changes in the global water system. They can be used very effectively to communicate complex ideas about future water resources to a broad general and academic audience. Scenarios for Urban Water Management: Europe and Developing Countries Dragan Savic Director Centre for Water Systems University of Exeter UK [email protected] Abstract Urbanisation and its associated environmental impacts are occurring at an unprecedented rate. While in 1900 just fourteen percent of the world's population lived in cities, that number was estimated to reach over fifty per cent by the year 2000. About 80% of European population lives in urban areas. Urbanisation brings increased demand for energy, raw materials and results in pollution and production of waste. It also brings an enormous pressure on water as natural resource, thus stressing the necessity of integrated management of Urban Water Systems. Governments around Europe are urged to take action on the formulation and implementation of policies for the integrated management of water resources in large cities and towns, to control pollution from sewage and effluents; and to protect groundwater from over-utilisation and pollution. In less fortunate parts of the world, notably the developing countries over 1 billion people, or 18% of the world's population, lack access to safe drinking water and over 2.4 billion people do not have adequate sanitation. The European Commission is promoting the development of an EU water initiative whose overall target should be the millennium target to halve the proportion of people lacking access to safe drinking water by 2015, together with a complementary target on sanitation. This talk will: (i) emphasise the importance of IUWM, (ii) the complexity of integrated urban water management (IUWM) issues in both European and developing countries, (iii) contrast the key issues in develop and developing countries, and (iv) point to a way forward where urban scenario elements could be combined to manage uncertainties associated with IUWM by providing design and management strategies for urban water systems that will perform reasonably well in the face of significant uncertainty. Scenarios for agricultural water demand – experience from WADI and other projects Keith Weatherhead Institute of Water and Environment, Cranfield University at Silsoe, UK. Water abstraction for agriculture, predominantly for irrigation, is one of the major water uses in Europe. In many areas it is by far the largest use; furthermore it is concentrated in the driest catchments, peaks in the driest months when resources are scarcest, and is mostly consumptive – unlike domestic and industrial abstractions, there are often no return flows. Its impact on the environment and other abstractors is therefore even greater than the raw data suggests. Clearly any water supply/demand scenarios must include agricultural demand. At its simplest, on one site, agricultural water demand can be modelled as the product of cropped areas (ha), proportions irrigated (%), irrigation needs (mm per annum) and application efficiencies (%). For regional studies, we also need to consider spatial variation in soils, climate, cropping pattern and irrigation method (eg Weatherhead and Knox, 2000). Looking forward, changes in socio-economic scenarios and government policies will affect which crops are grown and which are irrigated, and the attitudes of farmers to water conservation. Climate change will affect which crops are grown and which are irrigated, but also where those crops are grown and how much those crops need. Whilst the above is not simplistic to model, and will often require expert judgement alongside hard science, the methodology is feasible, and has been applied in various projects, including for example the agricultural part of Climate Change and Demand for Water (CCDeW), forecasting future water demand in England and Wales (Downing et al, 2003). However, these studies have raised a number of issues that need to be highlighted in defining the Framework 6 project component on agricultural water demand, that do not necessarily all apply to domestic or industrial demand scenarios. Calculating “unconstrained demand” (free abstraction with no restrictions) is meaningless in highly stressed catchments; it cannot and will not be supplied. But which “demand” are we interested in? Market feedback loops are important. Changes in crop production or yield in one area impact on cropping, and hence water demand, in other areas. Increased atmospheric CO2 will change cropping and water demand irrespective of climate (weather) change. Adaptation is important. Farmers will respond to some water constraints, depending on the cost of the water. But the extent of adaptation may depend as much on government policies as the farmers. Again, which “demand” are we interested in?