Download Module 5.2

Module 5.2
Mitigation Methods and Tools in
the Land-Use, Land-Use Change
and Forestry Sectors
5.2.1
Baseline and Mitigation Scenario
Construction in Forestry
• Land Availability
• Baseline Scenario
• Current trends for land-use and product consumption
• Common models for formulating baselines - FAC, LUCS,
GEOMOD, CO2-fix, etc
• Mitigation Scenarios
•
•
•
•
Technical Potential
Programmatic
End-use
Achievable
5.2.2
End-use Driven Scenarios
• 1. Simple Projection
• Per capita consumption, adjusted for income
• 2. Statistical Relationship
• Specify a consumption equation with few Independent Variables
e.g.Consumption = f (Population, Income, Price)
• 3. Econometric Analysis
• Specify a system of demand and supply equations for each
product, including both endogenous and exogenous variables.
• Solve using appropriate technique, including statistical and/or
optimization methods.
• In all cases the projected product consumption must be reconciled, in varying
degrees of complexity, with forest land required to support the level of consumption
5.2.3
Land Use Distribution:
Driving Factors
A. Demographic variables
– population size, growth rate, rural/urban population and
dependence on land resources.
B. Economic factors
– income level, technological development, dependence on landbased exports, and rates of economic growth.
C. Biophysical factors
– soil productivity, topography and climate.
D. Intensity of Land use
– shifting versus permanent agriculture, clear-cutting versus
selective harvesting/logging
5.2.4
Land-use Distribution Models
• Process Models
– EPIC, CENTURY & Forest-BGC
• Accounting Models
– GLOBC7/8, COPATH
• Socio-economic Accounting Models
– LUCS, GEOMOD, FAC
5.2.5
GHG Flow Accounting Methods
• Ecosystem-wide tools
• Large area coverage models
• Project/activity methods
5.2.6
Carbon Flows:
1. Broad Area Carbon Flows
2. Specific Area Carbon Flows
5.2.7
Types of Forestry Models
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Individual Tree Models
Forest Gap Models
Bio-geographical Models
Ecosystem Process Models
Terrestrial C Circulation Models
Land-use Change Models
Spreadsheet Models
5.2.8
1. Individual Tree Models
• Simulate tree growth in tree-soil
continuum.
• Photosynthesis = f(H2O, light, nutrients,
etc )
• No forest stand Dynamics
• e.g. TREGRO
5.2.9
2. Forest Gap Models
• Simulates forest succession after a small canopy
opening
• Based on empirical relationships
• Factors: solar radiation, growing degree days,
soil nutrients, water, seed dispersal, latitude,
competition, etc.
• Simulate response to change in the environment
– E.g. FORTNITE, FORTNUT, LINKAGES, LOKI, etc
• Disadvantages:
– requires species specific parameterization
5.2.10
3. Bio-geographical Models
• Regional and Biome-wide models e.g. Holdridge
• New generation e.g. BIOME, CCVM, MAPPs,
– based on plant physiology responses
• Can simulate response to CO2 fertilization
• Disadvantages:
– Work well for equilibrium conditions,
– not well suited for ecosystems in transition.
5.2.11
4. Ecosystem Process Models
• Simulate plant energy dynamics at canopy level
• Based on Physiological and Ecosystem
processes
• E.g. CENTURY, FOREST-BGC, GEM
• Disadvantages:
– Data intensive.
5.2.12
5. Terrestrial C Circulation Models
• Regional and global
• Simulate C dynamics under different climate
scenarios
• E.g. PULSE, IMAGE
– The C-circulation module in IMAGE also simulates
changes in land cover in each region
• Disadvantages:
– Broad coverage, data intensive.
5.2.13
6. Land-use Change Models
• Terrestrial Carbon Dynamic model capable
of incorporating land use change.
• IMAGE includes socio-economic factors
e.g. income & population.
5.2.14
7. Spreadsheet Models
• Accounting models which track carbon flows in
forests
• Allows for forest type, country, biome or global
aggregation
• Less data intensive than process models
– e.g. COPATH, GLOBC7/8
• Disadvantages:
– Can not simulate climate change directly,
– Oversimplifies the functioning of the ecosystem
5.2.15
Project/Activity Specific Carbon
Accounting
• Applicable to specific type of mitigation activities
such as conservation projects, bioenergy
projects, reforestation / afforestation programs
etc
• Accounting depends on the intended use of the
biomass
5.2.16
Estimating Carbon Storage:
Three Major Situations
1. Standing Forests
2. Forests Managed in Perpetual Rotations
a.
b.
c.
d.
Vegetation Carbon
Decomposing matter
Soil Carbon
Fate of Forest Products
3. Conservation Forests
5.2.17
1. Estimating Carbon Stock
for a Standing Forest (tC)
Dry Biomass Density (tB/ha)
BD = SV*AS*TA*DW*WD;
where;
BD = Biomass Density
–
–
–
–
–
SV
AS
TA
DW
WD
= Stemwood Volume (m3/ha)
= Ratio of Above-ground to Stemwood Volume
= Ratio of Total to Above-ground biomass*
= Dry to Wet Biomass Ratio
= Wood Density (t/m3)
• * Total biomass includes that which is below ground
Estimating Carbon Density (tC/ha)
Carbon Density = CC * BD
where:
–
CC
= Carbon Content of biomass (%)**
• ** CC is usually around 50% but varies with species.
5.2.18
2: Estimating Carbon Stored by Forests
Managed in Perpetual Rotations
• Total carbon stored =
Land carbon + Product carbon
• Land Carbon =
(Vegetation + soil + decomposing matter) Carbon
• Total Carbon storage in forests under perpertual
rotations can be summarized as:
Carbon Stored per ha = C(v)*T/2 + C(d)*t/2 + C(s)*T+(i_c ){pi}*n_i/2;
where:
-
C(v) = vegetation carbon; C(d) = carbon in detritus; C(s) = soil organic carbon;
T = Rotation period in years; i_c = carbon in product i; pi = proportion of biomass in
product i; n_i = lifetime of product i in years.
5.2.19
2a. Vegetation Carbon
• For the plantation response option, consider that the
plantation is operated in rotations for an indefinite
time period. This would ensure that at least 1/2 the
carbon sequestered by an individual plot is stored
away indefinitely.
• The formula for estimating the amount of carbon
stored per ha is:
Vegetation Carbon Stored per ha = cv*T/2
where:
• cv = average annual net carbon sequestered per hectare
• T = rotation period*
* This formula is identical to the vegetation C components above
5.2.20
2b. Decomposing Matter
• The decomposing biomass on land creates a stock of
carbon.
• In perpetual rotations it adds to:
Decomposed Matter C stored per ha = cd*t/2
where:
– cd = average annual C/ha left to decompose
– t = decomposition period
5.2.21
2c. Soil Carbon
• Soil Carbon stored per ha = cs*T
where:
– cs = Increase in soil carbon/ha
– T = Rotation period
5.2.22
2d. Fate of Forest Products
• If the forest products are renewed continually, they store
carbon indefinitely.
• Amount stored depends on product life. The amount
stored over an infinite horizon will increase with product
life according to the formula:
• Carbon stored in products per ha = sum  (cpi)*n_i
Where:
– cpi = amount of C stored/ha in product i
– ni = life of product i
• Assumes instantaneous decomposition or disposal at the
end of its use.
5.2.23
3. Carbon Stored by
Conservation Forests
• Total Stored Carbon = Vegetation Carbon
+ Soil Carbon
– where:
• Vegetation carbon = cv * T ; T = Forest Biological Maturity
• Soil carbon = cs * t ; t = period for soil carbon equilibrium
5.2.24
Review of Framework and
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
COMAP Approach Revisited
Cost Benefit Analysis
Example of Mitigation Assessment
Issues, short comings, and suggestions
5.2.25
COMAP
• Mitigation Assessment Framework
• Objective: To identify the least expensive
way of providing forest products and
services to the country, while reducing the
most amount of GHGs emitted or
increasing carbon sequestered in the land
use change and forestry sector
5.2.26
COMAP Flow Chart
Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Unit Costs and Benefits
– Monetary, non-monetary and intangible
• Critical Issues
– Discount rates
– Opportunity Cost
– Multiplier effects (including leakage)
5.2.28
Cost-Effectiveness Indicators
1. Initial Cost per ha & per tC
2. Present value of cost per ha & per tC
3. Net Present Value (NPV) per ha & per
tC.
4. Benefit of Reducing Atmospheric Carbon
(BRAC)*
* The indicator refers to net benefits
5.2.29
Cost-Effectiveness Indicators:
1. Initial Cost per ha & per tC
• Includes initial costs only.
• Does not include future discounted investments
needed during the rotation period.
• Can provide useful information on the amount of
resources required at the beginning to establish
the project.
5.2.30
Cost-Effectiveness Indicators:
2. Present value of cost per ha & per tC
• The sum of initial cost and the discounted value of all
future investment and recurring costs during the lifetime
of the project.
• For rotation projects, it is assumed that the costs of
second and subsequent rotations would be paid for by
revenues from preceding rotations.
• Also referred to as endowment cost because it provides
an estimate of present value of resources necessary to
maintain the project for its duration.
5.2.31
Cost-Effectiveness Indicators:
3. Net Present Value (NPV) per ha & per tC
• Provides the net discounted value of non-carbon benefits
to be obtained from the project.
• For most plantation and managed forests this should be
positive at a reasonable discount rate.
• For options such as forest protection, the NPV indicator
is also positive if indirect benefits and forest value are
included, both of which are subject to controversial
evaluation.
• Different computations are necessary depending on
scheme of project implementation.
5.2.32
Cost-Effectiveness Indicators:
4. Benefit of Reducing Atmospheric Carbon (BRAC)
• This indicator is an estimate of the net benefit of
reducing atmospheric carbon instead of
reducing net emissions.
• It expresses the NPV of a project in terms of the
amount of atmospheric carbon reduced, taking
into account the timing of emission reduction
and the atmospheric residence of the emitted
carbon.
• The formulation of the indicator varies with the
rate at which economic damage might increase.
5.2.33
Macroeconomic Implications
1. Direct Effects:
– Resource Reallocation (local, national, international).
– Changed Output eg timber, beef etc
– Effect on the price vector
2. Indirect Effects
– Forward and Backward Linkages
– Factor employment, multiplier effects
3. External Impacts
– Imports and Exports
– balance of payments, etc.
5.2.34
Implementation Policies
1. Forestry Policies
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–
–
–
–
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Forest Protection and Conservation Policies
Shared responsibilities and control of resources
Timber Harvesting Concessions
Tax rebates and incentives for adopting efficiency improvements
Aggressive afforestation and reforestation policies
Others policies
2. Non-Forest Policies
–
–
–
–
–
Land tenure: private vs. public ownerships
Agricultural and rural development
Infrastructural development policies eq. hydro, roads,
General Taxes, credits, and pricing policies
Other policies
5.2.35
Barriers and Incentives for
Implementation
1. Technical and Personnel Barriers
• Availability of data
• Skills
2. Financial and Resource Barriers
• Competition for funding among sectors
• competition for resources e.g. land
• Identification of beneficiaries, cost bearer, etc
3. Institutional and Policy Barriers
• Land tenure and law
• Central, regional and local institutions
• Marketing, pricing, tariffs, quotas, etc
5.2.36
COMAP Shortcomings
• The framework is static
• Inter-sectoral interactions are not explicitly
accounted for
• Focuses on point estimates instead of a
range
• Does not cover the change in ranking of
Mitigation options at different levels of
implementation
5.2.37