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Green growth indicators in Asia and the Pacific Hitomi Rankine, Environment and Development Division, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific International Seminar on Green Economy Indicators, 21-22 May 2012, Beijing. GGI & developing country concerns GE indicators Context-relevant Based on a concept of the determining factors of GG + the objective of GG Help to link policy action to policy impacts Simply framed Useful for economic modeling Take into account the ongoing transfer of environmental burdens between developed and developing countries Cannot penalize developing countries for necessary growth the Asia-Pacific context • Decreasing impact of growth on poverty reduction Increasing inequality Rising unemployment Gini coefficient evolution in selected countries Nepal Cambodia Philippines Georgia • Resource-intensive growth Turkmenistan Sri Lanka Viet Nam • Macroeconomic imbalances and instability India Lao PDR Taipei,China Tajikistan Bangladesh Pakistan 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Earliest (1990s) Latest Source: Guanghua Wan and Iva Sebastian, (2011), "Poverty in Asia and the Pacific: An Update", ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 267, p.20 … inequality = persistent unmet needs • 641 million living with less than 1 US$ per day • 400 million urban residents without access to sanitation • 566 million rural residents without access to clean water • 800 million without electricity the context… environmental pressures • Jobless growth and decreasing impact of growth on poverty reduction • Resource-intensive growth Domestic material consumption intensity Asia-Pacific GHG emissions Vulnerability to rising and volatile commodity prices • Macroeconomic imbalances and instability Rest of world Source: CSIRO and UNEP Asia Pacific Material Flows database Source: CSIRO and UNEP Asia-Pacific Material Flows database … macro-economic imbalances • Jobless growth and decreasing impact of growth on poverty reduction Increasing inequality Persistent poverty Trade and current account balances 800 Current account balance 600 • Resource-intensive growth GHG emissions Vulnerability to rising and volatile prices Billions of U.S. dollars 400 Five Asia-Pacific economies with 1 largest surpluses 200 Trade balance 0 United States -200 -400 • Macroeconomic imbalances and instability Financial instability Persistent macroeconomic imbalances -600 -800 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Source: ESCAP based on data from United Nations Statistics Division, National Accounts Main Aggregates Database and Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Database …facing a new economic reality Shift in scarcities - manufactured & human capital no longer scarce - environmental capital is now scarce A-P increasing weight & integration in global economy Increasingly evident resource constraints (land, food, water) Increasing instability System change for low carbon green growth A green economy = an eco-efficient economy that addresses resource constraints and a climate crisis A green economy will not materialize through incremental changes - fundamental changes needed – visible structure of the economy (physical infrastructure) – invisible structures of the economy (market prices, fiscal policies, institutions, governance and lifestyles) Low Carbon Green Growth Road Map for Asia and the Pacific -Main guide -Summary for policymakers -63 fact sheets -51 case studies -8 policy papers 8 policy papers Green growth roadmap – 5 tracks • “Invisible structure” of the economy = incentives framework – prices, taxes, social preferences, technology • “Visible structure” = built and natural environments Assessing degree of system-change – key questions • How green is the infrastructure – both built and natural? • How green is the incentives framework? Which? • How eco-efficient is the economy ? • How eco-efficiently (and inclusively) are human needs being met? • How close are environmental pressures to environmental thresholds? Which? What kinds of indicators are needed? Indexes, headline, sectoral, or all ? >> depends on the policy context >> in a comprehensive framework they can be hierarchically linked Green growth-related country initiatives • Green growth roadmaps or related comprehensive programmes - supported by comprehensive programmes and investment , fully mainstreamed – Republic of Korea China, Malaysia, Singapore • High-level targets for renewable energy use – Tuvalu, Fiji Samoa other Green growth – a better quality of growth Built infrastructure Natural infrastructure Incentives, technologies, social preferences Eco-efficiency in meeting human needs Share of renewable energy Transport: Passenger km per unit of energy Indicators for housing and commercial infrastrcure % of primary forest area. mangroves Degradation of watersheds Biodiversity Environmental taxes in overall revenues Fossil fuel subsidies Green procurement Waste recycling rates Environmental goods and services production Capacity to synergise growth and environmental protection green growth DMC/capita (+water) Municipal waste generation per capita Municipal water/energy use per capita (with modification for access) Food waste rates Share of population with access to improved sanitation and water, hunger Eco-efficiency of the economy DMC/GDP Proximity to thresholds Ecological footprint (compared to bio-capacity) Labour/resource/energy/water productivity GHG intensity Green jobs Water exploitation index Land use change + other indicators for critical thresholds (climate change, biodiversity loss, nitrogen cycle, ocean acidification, atmospheric aerosol loading, chemical pollution) Sample green growth Indicators for a developing country context Thank you for your attention