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The Move New York Plan Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis Prepared for Move New York and Blue Marble Project, LLC Submitted November 6, 2014 GENERAL AND LIMITING CONDITIONS HR&A Advisors, Inc. (HR&A) conducted this economic analysis of the Move New York Plan, a transportation policy proposal for New York, in March 2014.* HR&A relied on prior research regarding the economic impacts of congestion and traffic pricing in New York and internationally, and on the transportation model outputs from the Balanced Transportation Analyzer (BTA) developed by Charles Komanoff. HR&A adapted findings from previous studies, specifically the December 2006 Growth or Gridlock? report from the Partnership for New York City. HR&A took every effort to update the findings of the Growth or Gridlock? report using current economic and transportation data, but did not develop an independent economic modeling effort in this assessment. * HR&A conducted its economic and fiscal analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014. This presentation includes summary elements from the Move New York Plan and corresponding BTA as of October 2014, both of which have continued to evolve since that time. After close review, HR&A has concluded that the incremental effect of these changes would minimally impact its findings. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 2 THE MTA CAPITAL PROGRAM: CRITICAL TO REGIONAL GROWTH Following decades of disinvestment, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) had fallen into disrepair by the late 1970s. In 1981, New York State approved the establishment of the MTA Capital Program, a vehicle that has sustained over 30 years of large-scale regional infrastructure investment, reversing years of decline and neglect, and repositioning the MTA network as the metropolitan region’s key asset. In order to address its emerging challenges – changing mobility patterns, climate change, and system-wide crowding – New York State must commit to sustained capital investment in the MTA. Support for the recently-proposed 2015-2019 MTA Capital Program remains elusive, placing livelihoods and the economy of the metropolitan region at risk. New revenues from the Move New York Plan offers an approach to addressing the MTA’s funding gap and fully fund the 2015-2019 MTA Capital Program. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OVERVIEW HR&A analyzed the economic and fiscal impacts to New York State (NYS) and New York City (NYC) that would result from implementation of the Move New York Plan, a transportation policy proposal for New York City. This analysis is based on prior research on the economic costs of congestion to the New York City metropolitan economy, and relies on outputs from the BTA, a transportation model developed by Move New York. RESULTS 30,500 more jobs $2.8 billion annual economic output $168 million annual tax revenues to NYS and NYC HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 4 THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY STUDY AREA ECONOMIC IMPACTS FISCAL IMPACTS THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN PRINCIPLES ELEMENTS SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS OF THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN METHODOLOGY SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC EFFECTS TECHNICAL APPENDIX HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 5 THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY STUDY AREA Putnam Westchester Rockland Suffolk NYC Nassau Source: ESRI Business Analyst, OpenStreetMaps HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 6 THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY EXCESS CONGESTION IS AN ECONOMIC DRAIN Delay 1.1 billion hours Jobs 152,000 fewer jobs Economic Output of vehicle delay in the Study Area resulting from congestion-related delay $16 billion lost output resulting from congestion-related delay Source: HR&A analysis, based on findings in “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for New York City, 2006 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 7 THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY CONGESTION ALSO HURTS THE PUBLIC PURSE New York State $513 million $182 million Lost income tax revenue Lost sales tax revenue New York City $231 million $169 million Lost income tax revenue Lost sales tax revenue $744 million $351 million Lost income tax revenue Lost sales tax revenue Combined Source: HR&A analysis, based on findings in “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for New York City, 2006 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 8 THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY STUDY AREA ECONOMIC IMPACTS FISCAL IMPACTS THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN PRINCIPLES ELEMENTS SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS OF THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN METHODOLOGY SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC EFFECTS TECHNICAL APPENDIX HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 9 THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN PRINCIPLES OF THE PLAN Motor vehicle trips that generate congestion in the transit-rich Manhattan core should be fairly priced. Fair Tolling Motor vehicle trips in car-dependent communities underserved by transit should be more affordable. Manhattan Contribution Those who live/work in Manhattan’s core and benefit from reduced congestion should pay their fair share. Infrastructure Investment Improvements to New York City’s transit and highway systems are essential for the city’s future. Source: Move New York HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 10 THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN ELEMENTS OF THE PLAN Fair Tolling Introduce tolls at Manhattan core • $5.33 with E-ZPass; $7.50 without E-ZPass • Brooklyn/Manhattan/Queensboro/W’burg Bridges • 60th St. toll cordon Reduce tolls at other MTA bridges • $2.50 off on Throgs Neck, Whitestone, Triboro, and Verrazano-Narrows Bridges • $1 off on Cross Bay, Gil Hodges, Henry Hudson Manhattan Contribution Ensure fair contribution from Manhattan’s core • Elimination of Manhattan Parking Garage tax break • Surcharge on taxi travel south of 96th St. Infrastructure Investment Sustainable funding for regional transportation • Restoration of funding for transit service • Increase in capital spending on transit and highways Source: Move New York HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 11 THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS: A BALANCED PLAN Net revenues from new tolls Sources of Funds Revenues from increased NYC Transit ridership $220 MM Revenues from taxi surcharge $255 MM Elimination of Manhattan parking tax break Subtotal Uses of Funds $1,485 MM $10 MM $1,970 MM Reduced tolls at selected MTA bridges $530 MM Transit operating and fare subsidies $109 MM Investments in transit/highway capital projects $1,331 MM Subtotal $1,970 MM Source: Move New York, BTA as of October 2014 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 12 THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS + 113,000 net additional daily trips to the Manhattan core + 17% increase in weekday traffic speeds in the Manhattan core + 5% increase in taxi ridership - 51,700 fewer daily car-based work trips to the Manhattan core - 23,300 fewer daily car-based leisure trips to the Manhattan core Source: Move New York, BTA as of October 2014 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 13 THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY STUDY AREA ECONOMIC IMPACTS FISCAL IMPACTS THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN PRINCIPLES ELEMENTS SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS OF THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN METHODOLOGY SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC EFFECTS TECHNICAL APPENDIX HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 14 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS OF THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN Travel Time Savings New Spending & Gained Income Reduced vehicle delay 52 MM saved hours/year Faster transit service 58 MM saved hours/year Reduced MTA bridge tolls $530 MM new income/year Transit operations $140 MM new spending/year Transit & highway projects $1,325 MM new spending/year Reduced Income New tolls, taxes, charges $1,945 MM lost income/year Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for New York City, 2006 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 15 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS METHODOLOGY Travel Time Savings Reduced vehicle delay Evaluated using findings from the Growth or Gridlock? report, the BTA, and US Census Bureau data. Faster transit service Reduced MTA bridge tolls New Spending & Gained Income Transit operations Transit & highway projects Reduced Income New tolls, taxes, charges HR&A Advisors, Inc. Evaluated through the use of IMPLAN (IMpact analysis for PLANning), a widely utilized input-output modeling tool that evaluates how economic changes flow through the economy of a specified study area, the BTA, and US Census Bureau data. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 16 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS SUMMARY OF IMPACTS 30,500 more jobs $2.8 billion annual economic output $168 million annual sales and income tax revenues Source: Move New York, BTA as of February 2014 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 17 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS ECONOMIC IMPACTS Jobs Travel Time Savings New Spending & Gained Income Lost Income Reduced vehicle delay Economic Output + 16,400 + $1,500 MM Faster transit service + 7,800 + $714 MM Reduced MTA bridge tolls + 2,300 + $256 MM Transit operations + 2,400 + $144 MM Transit & highway projects New tolls, taxes, charges + 10,600 + $1,148 MM - 9,000 - $998 MM Total economic impacts of Move New York: + 30,500 jobs + $2.8 B GRP Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for New York City, 2006 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 18 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS FISCAL IMPACTS New York City Travel Time Savings New Spending & Gained Income Lost Income New York State Reduced vehicle delay + $38 MM + $65 MM Faster transit service + $16 MM + $31 MM Reduced MTA bridge tolls + $5 MM + $7 MM Transit operations + $3 MM + $5 MM + $22 MM + $38 MM - $19 MM - $43 MM + $65 MM + $103 MM Transit & highway projects New tolls, taxes, charges Total fiscal impacts of Move New York: Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for New York City, 2006 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 19 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS ON THE RETAIL INDUSTRY BENEFITS COSTS Reduced logistics and inventory costs from increased travel speeds and more reliable delivery times both within and outside the Manhattan core. Increased operating expenses for retailers in the Manhattan core, although these are likely to be offset by corresponding benefits. 113,000 additional daily trips to the Manhattan core will result in more spending. The decrease in auto trips is more than offset by a substantial increase in transit trips. Fewer non-work auto trips, decreasing by roughly 23,300 per day. Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Image: Flickr – CC by johrling HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 20 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS ON THE ARTS & CULTURE INDUSTRY BENEFITS COSTS Reduced congestion improves quality of place, attracting local, domestic, and international visitors to the Manhattan core. 113,000 additional daily trips to the Manhattan core will result in more spending. The decrease in auto trips is more than offset by a substantial increase in transit trips. Infrequent, regional arts & culture visitors to the Manhattan core may decrease. Arts & culture visitors from the outer boroughs and suburbs may not shift modes and may avoid trips because of the off-peak cordon toll. Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Image: Flickr – CC by broadwaytour.net HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 21 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS ON THE HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY BENEFITS COSTS Reduced congestion improves quality of place, attracting local, domestic, and international visitors to the Manhattan core, and increasing hotel demand. Some diners may shift to restaurants outside the Manhattan core resulting in new business for restaurants in the outer boroughs and suburbs. 113,000 additional daily trips to the Manhattan core will result in more spending. The decrease in auto trips is more than offset by a substantial increase in transit trips. Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Image: Flickr – CC by london road HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 22 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS ON THE FINANCIAL/PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INDUSTRY BENEFITS COSTS Workers throughout the region spend less time in congestion and use that time productively. Workers who use transit as well as those who continue to drive will benefit from a quicker and more reliable commute, freeing up time for productive work. Moreover, workers attending mid-day business meetings will be able to reach their destinations faster. The toll may dissuade clients from conducting business with an office in the Manhattan core. The toll may encourage some business activity to relocate outside the City. Workers that switch to transit modes may find their commutes less pleasurable, reducing productivity at the office. Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Image: Flickr – CC by specialoperations HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 23 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS ON THE LOGISTICS INDUSTRY BENEFITS COSTS Improved delivery time and reliability from reduced congestion will boost service predictability. This will reduce costs and improve productivity in the construction, manufacturing, and wholesale industries. Wholesalers in the Manhattan core dependent on customers that cannot reoptimize their trips may face reduced business. Contractors, manufacturers, and wholesalers will serve a larger market thanks to increased access. Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Flickr – CC by angeloangelo HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 24 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS ON THE OFF-STREET PARKING INDUSTRY BENEFITS COSTS Drivers that continue to drive into the Manhattan core will likely be those willing to pay for a garage. Those that switch modes to get to the Manhattan core or do not drive to the Manhattan core may not have been garage customers in the first place and likely searched for on-street parking. Fewer work and non-work auto trips into the Manhattan core. Auto trips into the Manhattan core for work will decline by 51,700 per day, and non-work auto trips will decline by 23,300 per day. Since a portion of these drivers currently use garages to park, garages may experience a loss in revenue. Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Flickr – CC by Jay Santiago HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 25 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE BENEFITS COSTS Reduced congestion and improved transit service will enhance the competitive position of the Manhattan core and yield increased office rents. While the toll may increase operating expenses for tenants located in Manhattan core, these costs will likely be offset by new benefits. A net increase in trips into the Manhattan core indicates more demand for office space and increased retail spending potential. Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Flickr – CC by dandeluca HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 26 THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY STUDY AREA ECONOMIC IMPACTS FISCAL IMPACTS THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN PRINCIPLES ELEMENTS SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS EFFECTS OF THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN METHODOLOGY SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC EFFECTS TECHNICAL APPENDIX HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 27 TECHNICAL APPENDIX METHODOLOGY Travel Time Savings Reduced vehicle delay Evaluated using findings from Growth or Gridlock? report, the BTA, and US Census Bureau data. Faster transit service Reduced MTA bridge tolls New Spending & Gained Income Transit operations Transit & highway projects Reduced Income New tolls, taxes, charges HR&A Advisors, Inc. Evaluated through the use of IMPLAN (IMpact analysis for PLANning), a widely utilized input-output modeling tool that evaluates how economic changes flow through the economy of a specified study area, the BTA, and US Census Bureau data. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 28 TECHNICAL APPENDIX METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS Reduced vehicle delay • HR&A translated the hours of reduced vehicle delay into economic output and job impacts by using estimates on the value of time and productivity per job from the 2006 Growth or Gridlock? report. • The reduced vehicle delay reflects both reductions in delay from new tolls as well as an increase in delay from lower tolls. • All values from 2006 were inflated to 2013 levels according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index for the New York City MSA. Reduced vehicle delay 52 million hours per year Value of time $29 per hour New economic output GRP per job New jobs + $1.5 billion per year $92,000 per job + 16,400 jobs Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for New York City, 2006 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 29 TECHNICAL APPENDIX METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS Faster transit service • HR&A translated travel time savings for bus and subway riders into economic output and job impacts by using estimates on the value of time and productivity per job that drew from both the BTA and the 2006 Growth or Gridlock? report. • Consistent with the BTA, HR&A generated distinct estimates on the value of time for bus riders and subway riders. • All values from 2006 were inflated to 2013 levels according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index for the New York City MSA. Subway time savings Value of time New economic output GRP per job 52.07 million hours per year $12.71 per hour + $662 million per year $92,000 per job Bus time savings Value of time New economic output GRP per job + $52 million per year $92,000 per job 6.3 million hours per year $8.26 per hour New jobs + 7,200 jobs New jobs + 600 jobs Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for New York City, 2006 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 30 TECHNICAL APPENDIX IMPLAN OVERVIEW IMPLAN traces commodity purchases and sales between industries associated with each dollar of a product or service sold to a customer, analyzing interactions among 440 industrial sectors, with assumptions about spending that takes place outside of the Study Area. In this analysis, HR&A used 2012 multipliers, the most recent available. IMPLAN estimates direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts. An explanation for each of these economic impact categories is shown below. Direct Impacts Economic activity associated with capital investment or ongoing operations HR&A Advisors, Inc. Total jobs Indirect Impacts Economic activity from suppliers to capital investment, or ongoing operations Induced Impacts Total output Economic activity from spending of wages from direct or indirect activity, or from saved household income Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 31 TECHNICAL APPENDIX METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS Reduced MTA bridge tolls • HR&A evaluated toll savings as saved household income. • The BTA calculates that toll discounts at MTA bridges included in the Move New York plan would reduce overall toll revenue by a total of $529 MM. The BTA also provides the distribution of tolled drivers by county of residence. • HR&A used 2012 ACS data to proportionally distribute the reduction in toll revenues by household income for each county in the Study Area, and then entered this distribution into IMPLAN for evaluation. Direct Impacts No direct economic activity. 2,300 jobs Indirect Impacts No indirect economic activity. Induced Impacts $256 MM output $529 MM of saved household income. 2,300 jobs $256 MM output Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, and the US Census Bureau HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 32 TECHNICAL APPENDIX METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS Transit operations • HR&A evaluated increased funding for transit operations as new economic activity. • The Move New York plan would generate $140 MM of funding for transit operations, with this investment directed to MTA commuter rail, NYC Transit express bus service, and NYC Transit local bus service. • HR&A proportionally distributed spending across a series of IMPLAN categories specific to passenger rail and public transit operations. Direct Impacts $140 MM of spending for onsite operations. 1,900 jobs $89 MM output 2,400 jobs Indirect Impacts Suppliers to onsite operations. 200 jobs $22 MM output Induced Impacts $144 MM output Spending of wages from direct & indirect impacts 300 jobs $33 MM output Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014 and IMPLAN HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 33 TECHNICAL APPENDIX METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS Transit & highway projects • HR&A evaluated increased funding for transit and highway projects as new economic activity. • The Move New York plan would generate $1,325 MM of funding for capital investments in transit infrastructure and highways, with spending on transit directed to NYCT subways and MTA commuter rail. • HR&A identified IMPLAN sector codes for capital investments in subways, commuter rail, and highways. HR&A then distributed spending across these codes and entered this distribution into IMPLAN for evaluation. Direct Impacts $1,325 MM of capital spending on roads and transit. 6,400 jobs $652 MM output 10,600 jobs Indirect Impacts Suppliers to capital spending. 1,900 jobs $247 MM output Induced Impacts $1,148 MM output Spending of wages from direct & indirect impacts 2,300 jobs $249 MM output Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014 and IMPLAN HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 34 TECHNICAL APPENDIX METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS New tolls, taxes, charges • HR&A evaluated the introduction of new tolls, taxes, and charges as lost household income. • The BTA calculates that the new tolls, eliminated tax break, and taxi surcharge in the Manhattan core would capture a total of $1,945 MM of spending. The BTA also provides this data by county of residence. • HR&A used 2012 ACS data to proportionally distribute new tolls, taxes, and charges by household income for each county in the Study Area, and then entered this distribution into IMPLAN for evaluation. Direct Impacts No direct economic activity. 9,000 jobs Indirect Impacts No indirect economic activity. Induced Impacts - $998 MM output $1,945 MM of lost household income. - 9,000 jobs - $998 MM output Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, and the US Census Bureau HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 35 TECHNICAL APPENDIX DISTRIBUTION OF JOBS New York City Rest of NY State + 11,300 + 5,100 + 16,400 Faster transit service + 6,900 + 900 + 7,800 Reduced MTA bridge tolls + 1,500 + 800 + 2,300 Transit operations + 2,200 + 200 + 2,400 Transit & highway projects + 8,300 + 2,300 + 10,600 New tolls, taxes, charges - 6,700 - 2,300 - 9,000 Total jobs created: + 23,500 jobs + 7,000 jobs + 30,500 jobs Reduced vehicle delay Total Jobs Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for New York City, 2006 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 36 TECHNICAL APPENDIX METHODOLOGY – FISCAL IMPACTS Sales Tax to GDP Ratio Income Tax to GDP Ratio New York State 0.011 0.032 New York City 0.011 0.014 • To calculate total sales tax revenues • To calculate total income tax revenues that the Move New York Plan would that the Move New York Plan would generate for New York State and New generate for New York State and New York City, HR&A identified the ratio York City, HR&A identified ratio between total economic output and between total economic output and total sales tax revenues. total income tax revenues. • HR&A then applied these ratios to its • HR&A then applied these ratios to its estimates of total economic output that estimates of total economic output that the Move New York Plan would the Move New York Plan would generate for New York State and New generate for New York State and New York City. York City. Source: NYS Department of Taxation & Finance, NYC Office of Management and Budget, New York City Rent Guidelines Board, US Bureau of Economic Analysis HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 37 TECHNICAL APPENDIX BREAKDOWN OF FISCAL IMPACTS Reduced vehicle delay NYC NYC NYS NYS Income Tax Sales Tax Income Tax Sales Tax + $22 MM + $16 MM + $48 MM + $17 MM Faster transit service + $9 MM + $7 MM + $23 MM + $8 MM Reduced MTA bridge tolls + $3 MM + $2 MM + $4 MM + $3 MM Transit operations + $2 MM + $1 MM + $3 MM + $2 MM + $13 MM + $9 MM + $25 MM + $13 MM New tolls, taxes, charges - $11 MM - $8 MM - $32 MM - $11 MM Total fiscal impacts: + $38 MM + $27 MM + $71 MM + $32 MM Transit & highway projects Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, NYS Dept of Taxation & Finance, NYC OMB, US Census Bureau, and “Growth or Gridlock,” The Partnership for NYC, 2006 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 38 Prepared for Move New York and Blue Marble Project, LLC Submitted November 6, 2014