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The Move New York Plan
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis
Prepared for
Move New York and Blue Marble Project, LLC
Submitted
November 6, 2014
GENERAL AND LIMITING CONDITIONS
HR&A Advisors, Inc. (HR&A) conducted this economic analysis of the Move New
York Plan, a transportation policy proposal for New York, in March 2014.* HR&A
relied on prior research regarding the economic impacts of congestion and traffic
pricing in New York and internationally, and on the transportation model outputs
from the Balanced Transportation Analyzer (BTA) developed by Charles Komanoff.
HR&A adapted findings from previous studies, specifically the December 2006
Growth or Gridlock? report from the Partnership for New York City. HR&A took
every effort to update the findings of the Growth or Gridlock? report using current
economic and transportation data, but did not develop an independent economic
modeling effort in this assessment.
* HR&A conducted its economic and fiscal analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014. This presentation includes summary elements from the Move New York Plan and
corresponding BTA as of October 2014, both of which have continued to evolve since that time. After close review, HR&A has concluded that the incremental effect of these
changes would minimally impact its findings.
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 2
THE MTA CAPITAL PROGRAM: CRITICAL TO REGIONAL GROWTH
Following decades of disinvestment, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority
(MTA) had fallen into disrepair by the late 1970s. In 1981, New York State
approved the establishment of the MTA Capital Program, a vehicle that has
sustained over 30 years of large-scale regional infrastructure investment, reversing
years of decline and neglect, and repositioning the MTA network as the
metropolitan region’s key asset.
In order to address its emerging challenges – changing mobility patterns, climate
change, and system-wide crowding – New York State must commit to sustained
capital investment in the MTA. Support for the recently-proposed 2015-2019 MTA
Capital Program remains elusive, placing livelihoods and the economy of the
metropolitan region at risk.
New revenues from the Move New York Plan offers an approach to addressing the
MTA’s funding gap and fully fund the 2015-2019 MTA Capital Program.
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
OVERVIEW
HR&A analyzed the economic and fiscal impacts to New York State (NYS) and
New York City (NYC) that would result from implementation of the Move New
York Plan, a transportation policy proposal for New York City.
This analysis is based on prior research on the economic costs of congestion to
the New York City metropolitan economy, and relies on outputs from the BTA, a
transportation model developed by Move New York.
RESULTS
30,500 more jobs
$2.8 billion annual economic output
$168 million annual tax revenues to NYS and NYC
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 4
THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY
STUDY AREA
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
FISCAL IMPACTS
THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
PRINCIPLES
ELEMENTS
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS
TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS OF THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
METHODOLOGY
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC EFFECTS
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 5
THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY
STUDY AREA
Putnam
Westchester
Rockland
Suffolk
NYC
Nassau
Source: ESRI Business Analyst, OpenStreetMaps
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 6
THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY
EXCESS CONGESTION IS AN ECONOMIC DRAIN
Delay
1.1 billion hours
Jobs
152,000 fewer jobs
Economic
Output
of vehicle delay in the Study Area
resulting from congestion-related delay
$16 billion lost output
resulting from congestion-related delay
Source: HR&A analysis, based on findings in “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for New York City, 2006
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 7
THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY
CONGESTION ALSO HURTS THE PUBLIC PURSE
New York State
$513 million
$182 million
Lost income tax revenue
Lost sales tax revenue
New York City
$231 million
$169 million
Lost income tax revenue
Lost sales tax revenue
$744 million
$351 million
Lost income tax revenue
Lost sales tax revenue
Combined
Source: HR&A analysis, based on findings in “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for New York City, 2006
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 8
THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY
STUDY AREA
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
FISCAL IMPACTS
THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
PRINCIPLES
ELEMENTS
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS
TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS OF THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
METHODOLOGY
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC EFFECTS
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 9
THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
PRINCIPLES OF THE PLAN
Motor vehicle trips that generate congestion in the
transit-rich Manhattan core should be fairly priced.
Fair Tolling
Motor vehicle trips in car-dependent communities
underserved by transit should be more affordable.
Manhattan
Contribution
Those who live/work in Manhattan’s core and benefit
from reduced congestion should pay their fair share.
Infrastructure
Investment
Improvements to New York City’s transit and highway
systems are essential for the city’s future.
Source: Move New York
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 10
THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
ELEMENTS OF THE PLAN
Fair Tolling
Introduce tolls at Manhattan core
• $5.33 with E-ZPass; $7.50 without E-ZPass
• Brooklyn/Manhattan/Queensboro/W’burg Bridges
• 60th St. toll cordon
Reduce tolls at other MTA bridges
• $2.50 off on Throgs Neck, Whitestone, Triboro, and
Verrazano-Narrows Bridges
• $1 off on Cross Bay, Gil Hodges, Henry Hudson
Manhattan
Contribution
Ensure fair contribution from Manhattan’s core
• Elimination of Manhattan Parking Garage tax break
• Surcharge on taxi travel south of 96th St.
Infrastructure
Investment
Sustainable funding for regional transportation
• Restoration of funding for transit service
• Increase in capital spending on transit and highways
Source: Move New York
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 11
THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS: A BALANCED PLAN
Net revenues from new tolls
Sources of
Funds
Revenues from increased NYC Transit ridership
$220 MM
Revenues from taxi surcharge
$255 MM
Elimination of Manhattan parking tax break
Subtotal
Uses of
Funds
$1,485 MM
$10 MM
$1,970 MM
Reduced tolls at selected MTA bridges
$530 MM
Transit operating and fare subsidies
$109 MM
Investments in transit/highway capital projects
$1,331 MM
Subtotal
$1,970 MM
Source: Move New York, BTA as of October 2014
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 12
THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS
+ 113,000 net additional daily trips to the Manhattan core
+ 17% increase in weekday traffic speeds in the Manhattan core
+ 5% increase in taxi ridership
- 51,700 fewer daily car-based work trips to the Manhattan core
- 23,300 fewer daily car-based leisure trips to the Manhattan core
Source: Move New York, BTA as of October 2014
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 13
THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY
STUDY AREA
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
FISCAL IMPACTS
THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
PRINCIPLES
ELEMENTS
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS
TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS OF THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
METHODOLOGY
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC EFFECTS
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 14
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS OF THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
Travel Time
Savings
New
Spending &
Gained
Income
Reduced vehicle delay
52 MM saved hours/year
Faster transit service
58 MM saved hours/year
Reduced MTA bridge tolls
$530 MM new income/year
Transit operations
$140 MM new spending/year
Transit & highway projects
$1,325 MM new spending/year
Reduced Income New tolls, taxes, charges
$1,945 MM lost income/year
Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for
New York City, 2006
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 15
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
METHODOLOGY
Travel Time
Savings
Reduced vehicle delay
Evaluated using findings from the
Growth or Gridlock? report, the BTA,
and US Census Bureau data.
Faster transit service
Reduced MTA bridge tolls
New
Spending &
Gained
Income
Transit operations
Transit & highway projects
Reduced Income New tolls, taxes, charges
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Evaluated through the use of IMPLAN
(IMpact analysis for PLANning), a
widely utilized input-output modeling
tool that evaluates how economic
changes flow through the economy of
a specified study area, the BTA, and
US Census Bureau data.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 16
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
30,500 more jobs
$2.8 billion annual economic output
$168 million annual sales and income tax revenues
Source: Move New York, BTA as of February 2014
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 17
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Jobs
Travel Time
Savings
New
Spending &
Gained
Income
Lost Income
Reduced vehicle delay
Economic Output
+ 16,400 + $1,500 MM
Faster transit service
+ 7,800
+ $714 MM
Reduced MTA bridge tolls
+ 2,300
+ $256 MM
Transit operations
+ 2,400
+ $144 MM
Transit & highway projects
New tolls, taxes, charges
+ 10,600 + $1,148 MM
- 9,000
- $998 MM
Total economic impacts of Move New York: + 30,500 jobs + $2.8 B GRP
Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for
New York City, 2006
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 18
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
FISCAL IMPACTS
New York City
Travel Time
Savings
New
Spending &
Gained
Income
Lost Income
New York State
Reduced vehicle delay
+ $38 MM
+ $65 MM
Faster transit service
+ $16 MM
+ $31 MM
Reduced MTA bridge tolls
+ $5 MM
+ $7 MM
Transit operations
+ $3 MM
+ $5 MM
+ $22 MM
+ $38 MM
- $19 MM
- $43 MM
+ $65 MM
+ $103 MM
Transit & highway projects
New tolls, taxes, charges
Total fiscal impacts of Move New York:
Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for
New York City, 2006
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 19
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS ON THE RETAIL INDUSTRY
BENEFITS
COSTS
 Reduced logistics and inventory costs from
increased travel speeds and more reliable
delivery times both within and outside the
Manhattan core.
 Increased operating expenses for retailers in
the Manhattan core, although these are
likely to be offset by corresponding benefits.
 113,000 additional daily trips to the
Manhattan core will result in more spending.
The decrease in auto trips is more than offset
by a substantial increase in transit trips.
 Fewer non-work auto trips, decreasing by
roughly 23,300 per day.
Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Image: Flickr – CC by johrling
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
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ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS ON THE ARTS & CULTURE INDUSTRY
BENEFITS
COSTS
 Reduced congestion improves quality of
place, attracting local, domestic, and
international visitors to the Manhattan core.
 113,000 additional daily trips to the
Manhattan core will result in more spending.
The decrease in auto trips is more than offset
by a substantial increase in transit trips.
 Infrequent, regional arts & culture visitors to
the Manhattan core may decrease. Arts &
culture visitors from the outer boroughs and
suburbs may not shift modes and may avoid
trips because of the off-peak cordon toll.
Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Image: Flickr – CC by broadwaytour.net
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
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ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS ON THE HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY
BENEFITS
COSTS
 Reduced congestion improves quality of
place, attracting local, domestic, and
international visitors to the Manhattan core,
and increasing hotel demand.
 Some diners may shift to restaurants outside
the Manhattan core resulting in new business
for restaurants in the outer boroughs and
suburbs.
 113,000 additional daily trips to the
Manhattan core will result in more spending.
The decrease in auto trips is more than offset
by a substantial increase in transit trips.
Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Image: Flickr – CC by london road
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
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ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS ON THE FINANCIAL/PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INDUSTRY
BENEFITS
COSTS
 Workers throughout the region spend less
time in congestion and use that time
productively. Workers who use transit as well
as those who continue to drive will benefit from
a quicker and more reliable commute, freeing
up time for productive work. Moreover,
workers attending mid-day business meetings
will be able to reach their destinations faster.
 The toll may dissuade clients from
conducting business with an office in the
Manhattan core. The toll may encourage some
business activity to relocate outside the City.
 Workers that switch to transit modes may
find their commutes less pleasurable,
reducing productivity at the office.
Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Image: Flickr – CC by specialoperations
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
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ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS ON THE LOGISTICS INDUSTRY
BENEFITS
COSTS
 Improved delivery time and reliability from
reduced congestion will boost service
predictability. This will reduce costs and
improve productivity in the construction,
manufacturing, and wholesale industries.
 Wholesalers in the Manhattan core
dependent on customers that cannot reoptimize their trips may face reduced
business.
 Contractors, manufacturers, and wholesalers
will serve a larger market thanks to increased
access.
Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Flickr – CC by angeloangelo
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 24
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS ON THE OFF-STREET PARKING INDUSTRY
BENEFITS
COSTS
 Drivers that continue to drive into the
Manhattan core will likely be those willing
to pay for a garage. Those that switch modes
to get to the Manhattan core or do not drive to
the Manhattan core may not have been
garage customers in the first place and likely
searched for on-street parking.
 Fewer work and non-work auto trips into the
Manhattan core. Auto trips into the Manhattan
core for work will decline by 51,700 per day,
and non-work auto trips will decline by 23,300
per day. Since a portion of these drivers
currently use garages to park, garages may
experience a loss in revenue.
Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Flickr – CC by Jay Santiago
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 25
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
BENEFITS
COSTS
 Reduced congestion and improved transit
service will enhance the competitive position
of the Manhattan core and yield increased
office rents.
 While the toll may increase operating
expenses for tenants located in Manhattan
core, these costs will likely be offset by new
benefits.
 A net increase in trips into the Manhattan
core indicates more demand for office space
and increased retail spending potential.
Source: HR&A, BTA as of October 2014; Flickr – CC by dandeluca
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 26
THE IMPACT OF CONGESTION ON THE NEW YORK ECONOMY
STUDY AREA
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
FISCAL IMPACTS
THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
PRINCIPLES
ELEMENTS
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS
TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
EFFECTS OF THE MOVE NEW YORK PLAN
METHODOLOGY
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS
INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC EFFECTS
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 27
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
METHODOLOGY
Travel Time
Savings
Reduced vehicle delay
Evaluated using findings from Growth
or Gridlock? report, the BTA, and US
Census Bureau data.
Faster transit service
Reduced MTA bridge tolls
New
Spending &
Gained
Income
Transit operations
Transit & highway projects
Reduced Income New tolls, taxes, charges
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Evaluated through the use of IMPLAN
(IMpact analysis for PLANning), a
widely utilized input-output modeling
tool that evaluates how economic
changes flow through the economy of
a specified study area, the BTA, and
US Census Bureau data.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 28
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Reduced vehicle delay
• HR&A translated the hours of reduced vehicle delay into economic output and job
impacts by using estimates on the value of time and productivity per job from the
2006 Growth or Gridlock? report.
• The reduced vehicle delay reflects both reductions in delay from new tolls as well
as an increase in delay from lower tolls.
• All values from 2006 were inflated to 2013 levels according to the US Bureau of
Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index for the New York City MSA.
Reduced
vehicle
delay
52 million hours
per year
Value of
time
$29 per hour
New
economic
output
GRP per
job
New
jobs
+ $1.5 billion
per year
$92,000 per
job
+ 16,400 jobs
Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for
New York City, 2006
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
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TECHNICAL APPENDIX
METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Faster transit service
• HR&A translated travel time savings for bus and subway riders into economic
output and job impacts by using estimates on the value of time and productivity
per job that drew from both the BTA and the 2006 Growth or Gridlock? report.
• Consistent with the BTA, HR&A generated distinct estimates on the value of time for
bus riders and subway riders.
• All values from 2006 were inflated to 2013 levels according to the US Bureau of
Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index for the New York City MSA.
Subway
time
savings
Value of
time
New
economic
output
GRP per
job
52.07 million
hours per year
$12.71 per
hour
+ $662 million
per year
$92,000 per
job
Bus
time
savings
Value of
time
New
economic
output
GRP per
job
+ $52 million
per year
$92,000 per
job
6.3 million hours
per year
$8.26 per hour
New jobs
+ 7,200 jobs
New jobs
+ 600 jobs
Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for
New York City, 2006
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TECHNICAL APPENDIX
IMPLAN OVERVIEW
IMPLAN traces commodity purchases and sales between industries associated with
each dollar of a product or service sold to a customer, analyzing interactions among
440 industrial sectors, with assumptions about spending that takes place outside of the
Study Area. In this analysis, HR&A used 2012 multipliers, the most recent available.
IMPLAN estimates direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts. An explanation for
each of these economic impact categories is shown below.
Direct Impacts
Economic activity
associated with
capital investment
or ongoing
operations
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Total jobs
Indirect Impacts
Economic activity
from suppliers to
capital investment,
or ongoing
operations
Induced Impacts
Total output
Economic activity
from spending of
wages from direct
or indirect activity,
or from saved
household income
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 31
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Reduced MTA bridge tolls
• HR&A evaluated toll savings as saved household income.
• The BTA calculates that toll discounts at MTA bridges included in the Move New
York plan would reduce overall toll revenue by a total of $529 MM. The BTA also
provides the distribution of tolled drivers by county of residence.
• HR&A used 2012 ACS data to proportionally distribute the reduction in toll
revenues by household income for each county in the Study Area, and then entered
this distribution into IMPLAN for evaluation.
Direct Impacts
No direct
economic activity.
2,300 jobs
Indirect Impacts
No indirect
economic activity.
Induced Impacts
$256 MM output
$529 MM of
saved household
income.
2,300 jobs
$256 MM output
Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, and the US Census Bureau
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TECHNICAL APPENDIX
METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Transit operations
• HR&A evaluated increased funding for transit operations as new economic activity.
• The Move New York plan would generate $140 MM of funding for transit
operations, with this investment directed to MTA commuter rail, NYC Transit express
bus service, and NYC Transit local bus service.
• HR&A proportionally distributed spending across a series of IMPLAN categories
specific to passenger rail and public transit operations.
Direct Impacts
$140 MM of
spending for onsite operations.
1,900 jobs
$89 MM output
2,400 jobs
Indirect Impacts
Suppliers to onsite operations.
200 jobs
$22 MM output
Induced Impacts
$144 MM output
Spending of
wages from direct
& indirect impacts
300 jobs
$33 MM output
Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014 and IMPLAN
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TECHNICAL APPENDIX
METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Transit & highway projects
• HR&A evaluated increased funding for transit and highway projects as new
economic activity.
• The Move New York plan would generate $1,325 MM of funding for capital
investments in transit infrastructure and highways, with spending on transit directed
to NYCT subways and MTA commuter rail.
• HR&A identified IMPLAN sector codes for capital investments in subways, commuter
rail, and highways. HR&A then distributed spending across these codes and
entered this distribution into IMPLAN for evaluation.
Direct Impacts
$1,325 MM of
capital spending
on roads and
transit.
6,400 jobs
$652 MM output
10,600 jobs
Indirect Impacts
Suppliers to
capital spending.
1,900 jobs
$247 MM output
Induced Impacts
$1,148 MM output
Spending of
wages from direct
& indirect impacts
2,300 jobs
$249 MM output
Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014 and IMPLAN
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
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TECHNICAL APPENDIX
METHODOLOGY – ECONOMIC IMPACTS
New tolls, taxes, charges
• HR&A evaluated the introduction of new tolls, taxes, and charges as lost household
income.
• The BTA calculates that the new tolls, eliminated tax break, and taxi surcharge in
the Manhattan core would capture a total of $1,945 MM of spending. The BTA
also provides this data by county of residence.
• HR&A used 2012 ACS data to proportionally distribute new tolls, taxes, and
charges by household income for each county in the Study Area, and then entered
this distribution into IMPLAN for evaluation.
Direct Impacts
No direct
economic activity.
9,000 jobs
Indirect Impacts
No indirect
economic activity.
Induced Impacts
- $998 MM output
$1,945 MM of
lost household
income.
- 9,000 jobs
- $998 MM output
Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, and the US Census Bureau
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TECHNICAL APPENDIX
DISTRIBUTION OF JOBS
New York City
Rest of NY State
+ 11,300
+ 5,100
+ 16,400
Faster transit service
+ 6,900
+ 900
+ 7,800
Reduced MTA bridge tolls
+ 1,500
+ 800
+ 2,300
Transit operations
+ 2,200
+ 200
+ 2,400
Transit & highway projects
+ 8,300
+ 2,300
+ 10,600
New tolls, taxes, charges
- 6,700
- 2,300
- 9,000
Total jobs created:
+ 23,500 jobs
+ 7,000 jobs
+ 30,500 jobs
Reduced vehicle delay
Total Jobs
Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and “Growth or Gridlock?,” The Partnership for
New York City, 2006
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 36
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
METHODOLOGY – FISCAL IMPACTS
Sales Tax to GDP Ratio
Income Tax to GDP Ratio
New York State
0.011
0.032
New York City
0.011
0.014
• To calculate total sales tax revenues
• To calculate total income tax revenues
that the Move New York Plan would
that the Move New York Plan would
generate for New York State and New
generate for New York State and New
York City, HR&A identified the ratio
York City, HR&A identified ratio
between total economic output and
between total economic output and
total sales tax revenues.
total income tax revenues.
• HR&A then applied these ratios to its
• HR&A then applied these ratios to its
estimates of total economic output that
estimates of total economic output that
the Move New York Plan would
the Move New York Plan would
generate for New York State and New
generate for New York State and New
York City.
York City.
Source: NYS Department of Taxation & Finance, NYC Office of Management and Budget, New York City Rent Guidelines Board, US Bureau of Economic Analysis
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 37
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
BREAKDOWN OF FISCAL IMPACTS
Reduced vehicle delay
NYC
NYC
NYS
NYS
Income Tax
Sales Tax
Income Tax
Sales Tax
+ $22 MM
+ $16 MM
+ $48 MM
+ $17 MM
Faster transit service
+ $9 MM
+ $7 MM
+ $23 MM
+ $8 MM
Reduced MTA bridge tolls
+ $3 MM
+ $2 MM
+ $4 MM
+ $3 MM
Transit operations
+ $2 MM
+ $1 MM
+ $3 MM
+ $2 MM
+ $13 MM
+ $9 MM
+ $25 MM
+ $13 MM
New tolls, taxes, charges
- $11 MM
- $8 MM
- $32 MM
- $11 MM
Total fiscal impacts:
+ $38 MM
+ $27 MM
+ $71 MM
+ $32 MM
Transit & highway projects
Source: HR&A analysis based on the BTA as of February 2014, IMPLAN, NYS Dept of Taxation & Finance, NYC OMB, US Census Bureau, and “Growth or Gridlock,” The
Partnership for NYC, 2006
HR&A Advisors, Inc.
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Move New York Plan | 38
Prepared for
Move New York and Blue Marble Project, LLC
Submitted
November 6, 2014