Download Climate Change and Species Extinction

Course Syllabus: BIOL 190Q – Climate Change and Species Extinction
Synopsis:
This seminar will explore the scientific basis for how climate change will contribute
to species extinctions in the coming century. Currently, there is a growing appreciation
of the very real danger that climate change poses to species persistence, particularly in
the ways that climate change is interacting with other human-caused changes to the
environment, such as land-use change. Because this topic has only recently acquired
broad public and scientific attention, little work has been done on this topic to date, i.e.
this topic isn’t covered in any textbook. Consequently the seminar will focus on three
distinct topics: 1) understanding the ecological, evolutionary and biogeographical
research that informs our understanding of how climate change will contribute to species
extinction, 2) focusing on the limited amount of research in the primary literature that
directly addresses this issue, 3) mapping out and conducting original research that can
advance our understanding of this issue. The course will have a significant reading load,
with selected readings from a text book on biogeography, as well as many readings from
the primary literature; diligence in studying this material will be evaluated with reading
assignments and quizzes. The course will also require a significant investment of time
towards original research. Together we will begin a collaborative research project
(analyzing an online database of species extinction and endangerment) that focuses on
species extinction. The research project will provide an opportunity to contribute to
many of the components of original scientific investigation, which includes project
planning, background reading of appropriate scientific literature, data collection, data
analysis, scientific writing, and manuscript submission for publication. Finally, each
student will also be required to complete a term paper and to give a presentation on their
plans for their term paper in class.
Objectives:
 To understand how climate change will contribute to future species extinctions
 To experience the scientific process of discovery by performing original research
Lecture: 9:00-9:50 MWF, J. Walter Wilson Hall, Room 301
Office Hours: By appointment, Walter Hall, Room 302
Instructor: Dov F. Sax, [email protected], 401-863-9676
Required Text: Biogeography, Third Edition, by Lomolino, Riddle and Brown
Grading Policy:
1. Contribution to class discussions (25%)
2. Quizzes and assignments (25%)
3. Contribution to the group research project (25%)
4. Term paper (25%)
Field Trip:
The field trip is a mandatory component of the course. It presents an opportunity for
students to observe organisms in the natural environment, so as to better appreciate how
climate, soil, species interactions and other factors limit the geographic distribution of
species. We will visit Cape Cod, examining the distribution of intertidal, estuarine and
upland species. We will pay special attention to species that have their geographic range
limit in or near Cape Cod. The trip is scheduled to depart campus at 8AM on Saturday,
February 28 and to return at 8PM on Sunday, March 1; the trip may need to be
rescheduled if inclement weather is expected.
Term Paper:
Studies of how climate change will impact species and ecosystems are still few and far
between. Your term paper assignment will be to design a research proposal to address
some aspect of this broad topic. The proposal must be for work that you could conduct
(either individually or as part of a larger team). You must provide preliminary data to
support your proposal; consequently you must have at least two ‘illustrations’, which
should be either figures or tables. You must also include a references cited section that
includes at least 20 referenced journal articles relevant to your proposed work, which you
will cite in the term paper. Finally, the text of the proposal should be five pages in length
(double spaced). The term paper is due on the scheduled final exam date for the course.
SCHEDULE OF READINGS, DISCUSSION AND WORK:
Jan. 21 – Course Introduction
Jan. 23 – Assisted Migration: Sax et al. 2007, Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2008
Jan. 26 – IPCC Synthesis Summary Report 2007
Jan. 28 – Chapter 3 – Biogeography: The Physical Setting
Jan. 30 – Chapter 4 – Biogeography: Distribution of Single Species
Feb. 2 – Chapter 5 – Biogeography: Geography of Communities
Feb. 4 – Chapter 6 – Biogeography: Dispersal and Immigration
Feb. 6 – Chapter 9 – Biogeography: Glaciation and Biog. Dynamics of the Pleistocene
Feb. 9 – Chapter 16 (pages 643-678) –Geography of Extinctions Part I
Feb. 11 – Chapter 16 (pages 678-708) –Geography of Extinctions Part II
Feb. 13 – Chapter 17 – Biogeography: Conservation Biogeography
Feb. 16 – No Class, University Holiday
Feb. 18 – Evolution and ecological fitting: Gould and Lewontin 1979, Janzen and Martin
1981, Janzen 1985
Feb. 20 – The parable of Green Mountain and Novel Ecosystems: Gray 2004, Wilkinson
2004a, Wilkinson 2004b, Hobbs et al. 2009
Feb. 23 – Climate Change in New England I (physical): NERA Chapters 2 and 4
Feb. 25 – Climate Change in New England II (biotic implications): NERA Chapter 5
Feb. 27 – Vegetation, land use history and conservation in Cape Cod: Motzkin et al.
2002, Eberhardt et al. 2003
Course Field Trip (Feb. 28 & Mar. 1)
Mar. 2 – Climate change and species extinction: Thomas et al. 2004 and replies to
Thomas et al., Schipper et al. 2008
Mar. 4 – Climate change and species extinction: Thuiller et al. 2005, Skelly et al. 2007
Mar. 6 – Invasion and extinction: Sax and Gaines 2008, Walther et al. 2005, NY Times
article
Mar. 9 – Research project – initial discussion
Mar. 11 – Pitfalls in analysis of IUCN data: Gurevitch and Padilla 2004 and replies to
Gurevitch and Padilla, Smith et al. 2007
Mar. 13 – Research project – assigning initial tasks (IUCN data processing)
Mar. 16 – Research project – identifying methodological problems
Mar. 18 – Research project – identifying our list of species
Mar. 20 – Research project – assigning additional tasks (literature search)
Mar. 23 – No Class, Spring Break
Mar. 25 – No Class, Spring Break
Mar. 27 – No Class, Spring Break
Mar. 30 – Ecological Fitting - Janzen
Apr. 1 – Research project – identifying additional methodological problems
Apr. 3 – Research project – compiling data to compliment IUCN data
Apr. 6 – Research project – data analysis
Apr. 8 – Research project – constructing figures and tables
Apr. 10 – Research project – structuring a scientific manuscript
Apr. 13 – Research project – alternative methods sections (selecting the right details)
Apr. 15 – Research project – alternative discussion sections (what to report)
Apr. 17 – Research project – alternative conclusions (what’s supportable)
Apr. 20 – Research project - alternative introductions (honing the “sales pitch”)
Apr. 22 – Research project – letter to the editor
Apr. 24 – Additional projects – discussing the possibilities
Apr. 27 – Research proposal presentations
Apr. 29 – Research proposal presentations
May 1 – Research proposal presentations
May 4 – No Class - Reading Period
May 14 – Term Paper due
READING LIST:
Text Book:
Lomolino et al. 2006. Biogeography, third edition. Sinauer Press, Sunderland, MA.
IPCC Report:
Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/
Journal Articles:
Gould, S.J. and Lewontin, R.C. 1979. The Spandrels of San Marco and the Panglossian
Paradigm: A Critique Of The Adaptationist Programme. Proceedings Of The
Royal Society of London, Series B, 205: 581-598.
Gray, A. 2004. The parable of Green Mountain: massaging the message. Journal of
Biogeography 31: 1549-1550.
Gurevitch, J. and Padilla, D.K. Are invasive species a major cause of extinction? 2004.
Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19:470-474.
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. 2008. Assisted colonization and rapid climate change. Science
321:345-346.
Janzen, D. 1985. On ecological fitting. Oikos 45: 308-310.
Janzen, D.H. and Martin, P.S. 1981. Neotropical anachronisms: The fruits the
Gomphotheres ate. Science 215: 19-27.
Replies and correspondence in Nature (2004) to Thomas et al. article; Volumes 427:145148 & 430:141.
Replies and correspondence in Trends in Ecology and Evolution (2004) to Gurevitch and
Padilla article; Volumes 19:619 & 20:110.
Sax, D.F. et al. 2007. Grant proposal to Cedar Tree Foundation.
Sax, D.F. and Gaines, S.D. 2008. Species invasions and extinction: The future of native
biodiversity on islands.
Schipper, J. et al., The Status of the World's Land and Marine Mammals: Diversity,
Threat, and Knowledge. Science 322: 225-230.
Skelly, D.K. et al. 2007. Evolutionary responses to climate change. Conservation Biology
21:1353-1355.
Smith, K.F., Sax, D.F. and Lafferty, K.D. 2006. Evidence for the role of infectious
disease in species extinction and endangerment. Conservation Biology 20: 13491357.
Thomas, C.D. et al. 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148.
Walther, G.R. et al. 2005. Trends in the upward shift of alpine plants. Journal of
Vegetation Science 16: 541-548.
Wilkinson, D.M. 2004a. The parable of Green Mountain: Ascension Island, ecosystem
construction and ecological fitting. Journal of Biogeography 31: 1-4.
Wilkinson, D.M. 2004b. Do we need a process-based approach to nature conservation?
Continuing the parable of Green Mountain Ascension Island. Journal of
Biogeography 31: 2041-2042.
Amendments to the syllabus:
Please note that this course syllabus is a general plan for the course; deviations
announced to the class by the instructor may be necessary.