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Teacher: Bill Snyder Godinez Fundamental High School Santa Ana Unified School District 2011-12 AP Statistics Syllabus Textbooks: Primary: “The Practice of Statistics” Daniel Yates, David Moore, Daren Starnes; Third edition W.H. Freeman 2008. Printed Test Bank and Resource Guide: “The Practice of Statistics, Golden Resource Binder” Daniel Yates, Daren Starnes; Second edition W.H. Freeman 2008. Technology: All students own or have access to a TI-83 or TI-84 family calculator for use in class or at home. All students have access to computer applications and are taught how to read computer output. Course Description: The course is arranged by units: Organizing Data, Producing Data, Probability and Inference. Unit 1 Analyzing Data: Looking for Patterns and Departures from Patterns Chapter P What is Statistics? (5 days: Week 0) Definition of Statistics Data Collection Categorical and Quantitative Data Chapter 1 Exploring Data (10 days: Weeks 1 and 2) Displaying data Histograms, stemplots, using TI-83/84 to make histograms Describing distributions – shape, center, spread, outliers Measures of center Five number summary and boxplots, using TI to make boxplots Cumulative frequency graphs Time graphs Chapter 2 Describing Location in a Distribution (9 days: Weeks 3 and 4) Z-Scores and Percentile Ranks Density Curves Activity – Normal Models Normal Distributions and 68-95-99.7 rule Assessing Normality, using TI-83/84 to make Normal probability plots Standard Normal Calculations Chapter 3 Examining Relationships (11 days: Weeks 4,5, and 6) Making and describing scatterplots, using TI-83/84 to make scatterplots Correlation coefficients Describing linear relationships – shape, strength, direction Activity – SAT/ACT Scores Least squares regression line Residual plots, using TI-83/84 to study residual plots Coefficient of Determination Outliers and influential points Chapter 4 More on Two-Variable Data (11 days: Weeks 7,8,9) Transforming relationships Exponential growth model Power law model Simpson’s Paradox Using TI-83/84 to evaluate different models Causation, common response, confounding Activity – Choosing a proper model Two-way tables, marginal and conditional distributions Activity – Modeling the spread of cancer Unit 2 Producing Data: Surveys, Observational Studies, and Experiments Chapter 5 Producing Data (11 days: Weeks 9,10,11) Activity – Class Survey Observational studies Designing samples Cautions in surveys, bias in sampling Designing experiments Randomized experimental design Blocking and matched pair experiments Simulation, using TI-83/84 to simulate experiments Unit 3 Probability and Random Variables: Foundations of Inference Chapter 6 Probability: The Study of Randomness (13 days: Weeks 11,12,and 13) The idea of probability Probability models Probability rules Disjoint events Independent events Conditional probabilities Casino Lab Part 1 Estimating probabilities using TI-83/84 simulations Activity – The Birthday Problem Chapter 7 Random Variables (9 days: Weeks 14 and 15) Discrete and continuous random variables Probability distributions Mean and standard deviation calculations for probability distributions Activity – Coin Flip Activity – The game of craps Casino Lab Part 2 Rules for adding and subtracting means and variances Law of large numbers Chapter 8 The Binomial and Geometric Distributions (9 days: Weeks 16 and 17) Binomial distributions Binomial calculations, using TI-83/84 procedures Mean and variance for binomial distributions Normal approximation to the binomial distribution Geometric Distributions Calculating geometric probabilities Semester Finals (4 days: Week 18/Finals Week) Chapter 9 Sampling Distributions (10 days: Weeks 19, 20) Sampling Distributions Activity – Random Rectangles Sampling distributions for proportions Sample distributions for means Activity – Sampling Distribution for the Age of a Penny Central Limit Theorem Unit 4 Inference: Conclusions with Confidence Chapter 10 Estimating with Confidence (10 days: Week 21 and 22) Confidence intervals for pop. Mean and pop. Proportion. Margin of Error Determining a Sample Size Conditions to Construct Confidence intervals Activity – Confidence Intervals for M & M’s TI 83/84 Confidence Interval Procedures Constructing one and two sample t Confidence Intervals Standard error Chapter 11 Testing a Claim (13 days: Weeks 23, 24, 25) Inference for population means, use of computer printout Hypothesis/Significance testing Comparison of 2 sided significance tests and confidence intervals Type 1 and Type 11 errors in hypothesis testing Power of a Test Chapter 12 Significance Tests in Practice (8 days: Weeks 25 and 26) One-Sample and Paired Data t significance tests Significance Test for a population proportion Activity- Hack-a-Shaq Activity- Make your Claim Chapter 13 Comparing Two Population Parameters (9 days: Weeks 26 and 27) Constructing Confidence Interval for the difference between 2 population means and 2 population proportions Reading Computer output Performing a significance test for the above conditions Activity: Paper Airplane Experiment Chapter 14 Inference for Distributions of Categorical Variables: Chi Square Procedures (9 days: Weeks 28 and 29) Chi-Square Goodness of Fit test Conditional Distributions Test for homogeneity of populations Test for association/independence Use T1 83/84 to conduct Chi Square Test Chapter 15 (5 days: Weeks 30) Inference for Regression Confidence interval for slope Residuals and standard error, reading computer output Hypothesis testing for slope Predictions and conditions for linear regression Using residual plots Activity – Height vs. Shoe Size Review for AP Exam (10 days: Weeks 31 and 32) Review multiple choice questions Review free response questions Practice test 2002 exam Grading practice exam Post AP Exam Chapter A Analysis of Variance (10 days: Weeks 33 and 34) Activity – Paper Airplane Design, continued Inference for spread One-way Analysis of Variance, reading computer printout Activity – Comparing Classes Alphabetically Second Semester Project (9 days: Weeks 35 and 36) Students will conduct a survey, experiment of simulation and use an inference procedure for analyzing the significance of their results. They may work in groups of no more than 3. Each group turns in a written proposal, once the proposal is accepted, students will collect their data. The written portion of this project includes graphical displays and statistical summaries as well as interpretation and conclusion. An oral presentation is given in which all members must participate; they show their displays, explain what they did and discuss their conclusions