Download Probability and Expected Value Game: Chance to win

Probability and Expected Value
Game: Chance to win “$100”
Setup: Take 10 cards (9 red and 1 black) and lay them face down on a table.
Object: 10 players each take a single turn, in sequence, and try to pick the black (winning) card. If they
do, they win the pot and the game is over. If they don’t, then the next person gets a chance to pick.
Explain the rules of the game, but do not discuss probability or expected value—these will be discussed
after the game or discovered by the players during the game.
Playing the game: Solicit 10 “volunteers” to play the game. You could choose these 10 or you could
have them “bid” with “money” for a chance to play. Now, determine the order in which they will
draw—this is another chance to have them “bid” for the chance to go first, second, etc. I would expect
some desire to go first since a winning card basically stops the game. Once this is set, play the game.
Discussion. Once the game is complete, discuss why they made the decisions (bidding to play or bidding
when to draw) they did. What is the probability of winning for each player? Does the order in which the
go really make a difference? What is the expected value of playing the game? How much should they
bid to play or bid to go first?